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斑马智行二度冲刺港股IPO 打响生存保卫战

魏帅 2026-04-15 10:09
魏帅 2026/04/15 10:09

邦小白快读

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斑马智行正二度冲刺港股IPO,面临严峻生存挑战。

1. 公司由阿里巴巴和上汽集团联合孵化,但股东战略转移导致订单持续性风险。

2. 财务数据显示,2023-2025年营收停滞在8亿元区间,亏损从8.76亿元扩大至18.96亿元,现金流连续三年净流出超14亿元。

市场竞争激烈,行业规模虽达1290亿元,但斑马智行优势消弭。

1. 车企自研系统如比亚迪DiLink和华为鸿蒙座舱增长迅猛,后者搭载量从2022年7万辆增至2024年50万辆。

2. 公司试图通过AI新业务突围,2025年AI收入增至0.67亿元,但体量单薄,研发投入反降35.4%。

智能座舱市场快速增长带来消费趋势洞察。

1. 2024年中国乘用车智能座舱市场规模达1290亿元,行业处于爆发期,但品牌需关注车企自研趋势如比亚迪和吉利,这影响第三方供应商地位。

2. 用户行为变化体现在车企对数据主权和定制化需求增强,品牌可借鉴斑马智行的AI技术(如元神AI模型)进行产品研发。

品牌渠道建设和定价面临挑战。

1. 斑马智行案例显示,过度依赖大客户(如上汽占比近四成)导致议价能力缺失,品牌应避免类似风险,优化供应链。

2. 消费趋势指向AI驱动解决方案,斑马智行的车载平台服务覆盖180多个应用,但商业化能力有限,品牌需探索创新合作。

智能座舱市场增长带来新机会和风险。

1. 行业规模预计2025年突破千亿,但消费需求变化如车企自研比例提升,华为鸿蒙座舱迅速扩张,卖家可关注增长细分市场如AI解决方案。

2. 斑马智行事件显示风险:客户集中度高达四成,订单持续性受股东关系影响,卖家应制定事件应对措施如多元化合作。

最新商业模式和可学习点突出。

1. 斑马智行押注“元神AI”大模型实现技术转型,卖家可学习其AI点外卖等场景落地案例,寻求类似合作方式。

2. 机会提示:IPO募资计划用于研发和全球市场扩展,卖家可评估扶持政策如生态构建,但需注意现金流压力导致亏损扩大。

智能座舱需求带来产品生产和设计启示。

1. 行业规模快速增长,2024年达1290亿元,工厂可捕捉商业机会如技术部件生产,但需注意车企自研趋势压缩第三方空间。

2. 斑马智行的案例显示,产品设计需满足定制化需求,如自研AliOS平台覆盖多品类应用,工厂可参考推进数字化升级。

商业机会和电商启示明确。

1. 斑马智行2025年车载平台服务收入占比17.6%,同比增长显著,工厂可探索类似电商合作模式。

2. 风险在于资金约束,公司现金流紧张和研发投入下降,启示工厂应平衡成本与创新,避免过度依赖单一客户。

行业发展趋势显示智能座舱市场重构。

1. 市场规模2025年预计突破千亿,但第三方供应商空间压缩,车企自研和科技巨头降维打击成为主旋律。

2. 新技术如斑马智行的“元神AI”全模态大模型实现主动服务升级,服务商可关注其AI点外卖等应用案例。

客户痛点和解决方案突出。

1. 痛点包括车企数据主权需求增强和定制化压力,斑马智行作为自研操作系统供应商提供差异化方案如AliOS平台。

2. 解决路径需整合资金投入,公司虽押注AI但研发连续下降,服务商应借鉴风险管理规避现金流问题。

商业对平台需求和问题日益凸显。

1. 平台需满足车企对定制化和数据主权的需求,斑马智行的AliOS平台覆盖180多个应用,但面临客户集中风险。

2. 问题包括运营管理挑战,公司现金流三年净流出超14亿元,研发投入降幅达35.4%,平台商需优化资金管理。

平台的最新做法和风险规避至关重要。

1. 斑马智行平台服务收入2025年增至1.51亿元,平台商可参考其拓展全球市场的招商策略。

2. 风向规避提示:IPO若失败可能面临估值承压,平台应强化合作方式如生态构建,避免类似股东博弈导致的治理风险。

产业新动向体现智能汽车产业链重构。

1. 车企转型“软件定义汽车”,第三方供应商如斑马智行空间压缩,市场规模虽达1290亿元但格局巨变。

2. 新问题聚焦独立盈利能力和技术壁垒丧失,公司亏损累计36亿元,研发投入下降与技术转型矛盾显著。

商业模式和政策法规启示丰富。

1. 斑马智行模式由“阿里+上汽”附属转向开放技术,但商业对平台需求未满足,研究可探讨生态重构路径。

2. 政策建议源于IPO合规,阿里投票权下调解决报表问题,启示产业需制定法规规避客户集中和现金流风险。

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Quick Summary

Banma Zhixing is making a second attempt at an IPO on the Hong Kong stock exchange, facing severe survival challenges.

1. The company was jointly incubated by Alibaba and SAIC Motor, but strategic shifts by its major shareholders have created risks to the sustainability of its orders.

2. Financial data shows revenue stagnating around the RMB 8 billion range from 2023 to 2025, while losses widened from RMB 876 million to RMB 1.896 billion, with net cash outflow exceeding RMB 1.4 billion for three consecutive years.

Intense market competition exists despite the industry's scale reaching RMB 129 billion, as Banma Zhixing's advantages erode.

1. Automakers' in-house systems, like BYD's DiLink and Huawei's HarmonyOS Cockpit, are growing rapidly; the latter's installations surged from 70,000 units in 2022 to 500,000 units in 2024.

2. The company is attempting a breakthrough with new AI businesses; AI revenue increased to RMB 67 million in 2025, but this remains a small portion of overall revenue, and R&D investment conversely decreased by 35.4%.

The rapid growth of the smart cockpit market offers insights into consumer trends.

1. China's passenger car smart cockpit market reached RMB 129 billion in 2024, indicating an explosive growth phase. However, brands must pay attention to the trend of automakers developing in-house systems (e.g., BYD, Geely), which impacts the position of third-party suppliers.

2. Shifts in user behavior are reflected in automakers' increasing demand for data sovereignty and customization. Brands can leverage Banma Zhixing's AI technology, such as its 'Yuanshen' AI model, for product development.

Brands face challenges in channel building and pricing.

1. The Banma Zhixing case demonstrates that over-reliance on a major client (SAIC accounted for nearly 40% of revenue) leads to a loss of pricing power. Brands should avoid similar risks by optimizing their supply chains.

2. Consumer trends point towards AI-driven solutions. While Banma Zhixing's vehicle platform services cover over 180 applications, its commercial capabilities are limited, prompting brands to explore innovative partnerships.

Growth in the smart cockpit market presents new opportunities and risks.

1. The industry scale is projected to exceed RMB 100 billion by 2025. However, changing consumer demands, including the rising proportion of automaker in-house development and the rapid expansion of Huawei's HarmonyOS Cockpit, mean sellers should focus on growing segments like AI solutions.

2. The Banma Zhixing case highlights risks: a high customer concentration (up to 40%) makes order sustainability vulnerable to shareholder relationships. Sellers should formulate contingency plans, such as pursuing diversified partnerships.

Latest business models and key learnings are prominent.

1. Banma Zhixing is betting on its 'Yuanshen AI' large model for a technological transformation. Sellers can learn from its implementation cases, like AI-powered food ordering, and seek similar collaboration models.

2. Opportunity alert: IPO fundraising is planned for R&D and global market expansion. Sellers can assess potential support policies, like ecosystem building, but must note the pressure from cash flow issues leading to widening losses.

Smart cockpit demand offers insights for product manufacturing and design.

1. With the industry growing rapidly to RMB 129 billion in 2024, factories can capture business opportunities in technical component production. However, they must be mindful of the trend towards automaker in-house development, which squeezes third-party space.

2. Banma Zhixing's case shows that product design must meet customization demands, such as its self-developed AliOS platform supporting diverse applications. Factories can reference this to advance their own digital upgrades.

Business opportunities and e-commerce implications are clear.

1. Banma Zhixing's in-vehicle platform service revenue accounted for 17.6% in 2025, showing significant year-on-year growth. Factories can explore similar e-commerce collaboration models.

2. The risk lies in financial constraints. The company's tight cash flow and declining R&D investment highlight the need for factories to balance costs with innovation and avoid over-reliance on a single client.

Industry trends indicate a restructuring of the smart cockpit market.

1. The market size is expected to surpass RMB 100 billion by 2025, but space for third-party suppliers is shrinking, with automaker in-house development and competition from tech giants becoming the dominant themes.

2. New technologies, like Banma Zhixing's 'Yuanshen AI' full-modal large model, enable proactive service upgrades. Service providers should examine its application cases, such as AI-powered food ordering.

Customer pain points and potential solutions are highlighted.

1. Pain points include automakers' increasing demand for data sovereignty and customization pressure. As a supplier of self-developed operating systems, Banma Zhixing offers differentiated solutions like its AliOS platform.

2. The solution path requires integrated funding. Despite betting on AI, the company's R&D spending has declined consecutively. Service providers should learn from this to manage risks and avoid cash flow problems.

Business demands and challenges for platforms are becoming increasingly prominent.

1. Platforms must meet automakers' needs for customization and data sovereignty. Banma Zhixing's AliOS platform covers over 180 applications but faces risks from high customer concentration.

2. Challenges include operational management issues, exemplified by the company's net cash outflow exceeding RMB 1.4 billion over three years and a 35.4% drop in R&D investment. Platform operators need to optimize fund management.

Latest platform strategies and risk mitigation are crucial.

1. Banma Zhixing's platform service revenue grew to RMB 151 million in 2025. Platform operators can reference its merchant acquisition strategies for global market expansion.

2. Risk mitigation alert: A potential IPO failure could lead to valuation pressure. Platforms should strengthen cooperation methods, like ecosystem building, to avoid governance risks stemming from shareholder disputes.

New industry dynamics reflect a restructuring of the smart vehicle supply chain.

1. Automakers are transitioning to a 'software-defined vehicle' approach, compressing the space for third-party suppliers like Banma Zhixing. Although the market scale is RMB 129 billion, the competitive landscape is undergoing significant change.

2. New issues focus on independent profitability and the erosion of technological barriers. The company has accumulated losses of RMB 3.6 billion, and the contradiction between declining R&D investment and the need for technological transformation is notable.

Business models and policy/regulatory implications are rich areas for study.

1. Banma Zhixing's model shifted from being an affiliate of 'Alibaba + SAIC' towards open technology, yet it has not fully met the platform demands of the business. Research could explore paths for ecosystem restructuring.

2. Policy suggestions arise from IPO compliance issues, such as the reduction of Alibaba's voting rights to address reporting concerns. This highlights the industry's need for regulations to mitigate risks like customer concentration and cash flow problems.

Disclaimer: The "Quick Summary" content is entirely generated by AI. Please exercise discretion when interpreting the information. For issues or corrections, please email run@ebrun.com .

I am a Brand Seller Factory Service Provider Marketplace Seller Researcher Read it again.

3月18日,港交所更新了一则熟悉的招股文件——斑马智能信息技术股份有限公司(以下简称“斑马智行”)再度向港交所递交上市申请。

这距离其2025年8月20日首次递表失效仅过去七个月。

十年前,阿里巴巴与上汽集团达成战略合作,共同孵化这家定位“软件赋能硬件”的智能座舱解决方案供应商。

两大巨头的加持曾让斑马智行被视为车联网时代的“天选之子”——阿里提供云计算、地图数据与软件授权的技术底座,上汽则既是最大客户又是硬件供应商,形成看似完美的产融闭环。

十年过去,这一闭环正面临瓦解的风险:阿里战略重心转向智己汽车,上汽加速自研座舱系统并与华为推出“尚界”品牌,两大股东的“战略观望”,让市场对斑马智行的订单持续性产生深度疑虑。

更为残酷的,是行业现实。根据灼识咨询数据,2024年中国乘用车智能座舱解决方案市场规模达1290亿元,行业正处于爆发期。

然而,作为头部企业的斑马智行却陷入“行业热、企业冷”的困境:车企自研比例显著提升,比亚迪DiLink、吉利千里智驾等自研系统相继落地;而高工智能汽车数据显示,华为鸿蒙座舱搭载量从2022年的7万多辆猛增到2024年的超50万辆。

这意味着,第三方解决方案供应商的话语权正在快速流失,曾经的头部正从技术供应商沦为“备份方案”的风险日益凸显。

事实上,如今斑马智行所面临的困境,是中国智能汽车产业链分工重构的缩影。

当车企从“硬件制造商”转型为“软件定义汽车”的主导者,当科技巨头以生态优势降维打击垂直供应商,第三方智能座舱企业的生存空间正在被系统性压缩。

在营收停滞、亏损扩大、研发收缩、客户集中的多重压力下,这家公司需要证明:它不仅是“阿里+上汽”的附属品,更是具备独立盈利能力的智能座舱解决方案商。否则,即便成功上市,也可能沦为资本市场的“过客”而非“主角”。

01“金汤匙”背后的苦楚

从2025年8月首次递表失效,到如今的二次冲刺,时间间隔之短、紧迫性之强,足以折射出斑马智行的上市渴求。

对于含着“金汤匙”出生的斑马智行来说,或许有着难言的苦楚。

2015年,阿里巴巴与上汽集团达成战略合作,共同孵化出这家车联网时代的“天选之子”。

彼时,中国造车新势力兴起,产业资本进入空前的活跃期。阿里与上汽宣布共同合资设立10亿元“互联网汽车基金”,同年11月斑马智行成立。

背靠两大生态企业,阿里通过技术授权与生态协同,将斑马智行纳入其汽车生态版图,上汽则通过订单输送与硬件支持,为斑马智行提供稳定的收入来源。而这些,共同构筑起了斑马智行的业务防线。

然而,一个明显的市场变化是,斑马智行不再是阿里与上汽的战略核心。一方面,阿里与上汽继斑马智行之后,联合打造了高端智能电动车品牌智己汽车。相比之下,斑马智行的定位更多是“技术供应商”而非“战略核心”。

另一方面,在一整个集团的电动化转型目标下,上汽还与华为旗下鸿蒙智行推出尚界品牌,其搭载的华为智能座舱方案,也让斑马智行口中的大客户优势受到了不小的冲击。

而股东双方的管理权博弈,也给斑马智行的前途蒙上一层阴影。

2019年,阿里与上汽对斑马智行进行战略重组,阿里巴巴成为第一大股东后,斑马智行开始向全行业开放技术。

2024年12月,阿里主动将投票权从41.67%降至37.09%,斑马智行自此不再纳入阿里合并报表。这一安排进一步解决了上市合规问题。

但是,业务的深度捆绑仍在继续:IPO前阿里系仍持股41.67%,上汽持股32.90%,双方形成无实际控制人的联合控股格局。这种股权结构既无绝对控股股东,又缺乏有效的制衡机制,为未来的治理风险埋下伏笔。

两大股东的战略调整,引发市场对斑马智行订单持续性的深度担忧。

上汽连续三年为斑马智行第一大客户,2023年-2025年贡献收入占比分别为47.4%、38.8%、39.2%,始终接近四成。同期,阿里则连续三年为斑马智行第一大供应商,采购额占总采购比例分别为58.4%、50.5%、40.7%。

这种“客户-供应商”双重绑定虽保障了短期业务稳定性,却导致公司议价能力缺失,一旦股东关系生变,业务连续性将受到严重威胁。

一定程度上,二度冲刺港股IPO,既是斑马智行的资本突围战,也是其生存保卫战,而这场战役的胜负,将在很大程度上取决于两大股东的态度转变与公司的自我救赎能力。

压力之下,斑马智行最先需要向投资者证明的是,它不仅是“阿里+上汽”的附属品,更是具备独立盈利能力和持续竞争力的智能座舱解决方案商。

否则,即便成功上市,也可能面临发行困难或估值承压的双重困境。

02 市场优势不再

历经中国新能源汽车市场的浮沉,斑马智行也曾是中国智能座舱市场的绝对龙头。

根据灼识咨询数据,按2024年收入计算,其是中国最大的以软件为核心的智能座舱解决方案供应商,解决方案搭载量亦排名第一。截至2025年底,其智能座舱解决方案已搭载于69家主机厂的940万辆车上,覆盖超过16个国际市场。

然而,这些数字背后却隐藏着增长停滞的危机。

2023年-2025年(以下简称“报告期内”),斑马智行营收分别为8.72亿元、8.24亿元、8.61亿元,三年间在8亿元区间波动,未实现规模化增长。

这种稳定,对于其他行业来说或许是好事,但是身处智能座舱市场快速扩张期的斑马智行来说,其市场优势正在步步消弭。

而在报告期内,斑马智行始终没有摆脱亏损的困境,分别亏损8.76亿元、8.47亿元和18.96亿元。对于未来业务预期,公司也坦言短期内可能继续产生亏损。

对此,斑马智行也试图以AI和车载平台服务开辟新增长点,但成效有限。

报告期内,AI全栈端到端解决方案收入从0.14亿元增长至0.67亿元;车载平台服务收入则从1.06亿元降至0.82亿元后再增至1.51亿元,2025年该业务收入占比为17.6%。虽然增速不错,但新业务体量仍显单薄,所谓的“第二增长曲线”,尚未形成足够的收入支撑,商业化能力有待验证。

技术转型的悖论同样值得关注。

在宣称全面发力AI的关键时期,斑马智行的研发投入却呈现三连降:从2023年的11.23亿元降至2024年的9.79亿元,再降至2025年的7.25亿元,较2023年降幅达35.4%;研发费用率从128.8%降至84.2%。

截至2025年末,公司现金及现金等价物仅9亿元,经营活动现金流连续三年大额净流出,分别为-4.17亿元、-4.87亿元、-5.74亿元,三年累计净流出超14.78亿元。

这种“降本增效”与“技术突围”之间的矛盾,也暴露出公司在现金流压力下的战略摇摆。

03 行业挑战与突围路径

数据显示,2025年中国智能座舱市场规模预计突破千亿,行业格局也在巨大的市场机遇中发生深刻变革。

技术成为最大的底牌。据悉,斑马智行押注的“元神AI”全模态大模型,被视为技术突围的核心。该模型已推出Auto Omni实车方案,实现从指令交互到主动服务的升级,并在与智己、饿了么的合作中率先实现AI点外卖等场景落地。

据招股书披露,截至2025年底,斑马智行是中国仅有的两家完全自研汽车操作系统的第三方供应商之一,自研AliOS车载平台服务已覆盖180多个品类的座舱原生应用。这些技术积累构成了斑马智行的差异化壁垒,也是其向AI驱动解决方案转型的重要基础。

目前,以比亚迪、吉利为代表的品牌斥巨资投入包括智能座舱在内的一整个智能化体系研发,也有赛力斯、奇瑞、上汽等企业接连试水与华为合作,成为华为智能座舱体系的受益者。

随着技术壁垒不再,加之车企对数据主权、定制化能力的需求日益强烈,第三方供应商不仅仅变为了主机厂的服务商,更要面对多个供应商一同打擂台的局面,备份方案抑或是订单分享,让斑马智行的危机感越来越强。

根据招股书信息,公司计划将募集资金用于研发、扩大市场份额、拓展全球市场及战略投资收购,但在现有业务模式下,这些投入能否转化为可持续的盈利能力存在疑问。

智能座舱解决方案的科技含量远不及智驾芯片及大模型,市场给予的估值空间相对有限。斑马智行36亿元的累计亏损、紧张的现金流、以及收入占比较低的第二曲线业务,这些指标都将成为估值折扣的砝码。

在港股市场对未盈利科技公司日趋谨慎的背景下,斑马智行需要讲清楚“何时盈利、如何盈利”的故事,否则可能面临发行困难或估值承压的双重困境。

生态的构建需要巨额投入和长期积累,在资金约束和股东观望的双重压力下,斑马智行的生态重构能否成功,仍是一个未知数。在车企自研和科技企业的夹击下,斑马智行的技术押注和生态重构都面临严峻考验。

二度冲刺港股这场战役的胜负,将决定其能否在智能汽车产业格局的重构中保住一席之地。

智能座舱的赛道很长,但留给斑马智行的窗口期,或许已经不多了。

注:文/魏帅,文章来源:子弹财经,本文为作者独立观点,不代表亿邦动力立场。

文章来源:子弹财经

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