中国硬件科技股 正站在狂飙后的十字路口

After a sharp rally, China's hardware technology stocks are now at a crossroads awaiting performance validation. This summary helps general readers understand the core market logic and key precautions for participation.

1. Current market overview: As of June 26, 2026, the STAR 50 Index has gained approximately 62% this quarter, with its PE-TTM ratio climbing to 239x — the 100th percentile in its historical range. Capital has flooded into semiconductor, AI infrastructure, and local supply chain-related hardware stocks, while continuing to flow out of the weak consumer and retail sector.

2. Practical guidance: Whether the rally can continue will hinge entirely on whether companies can deliver on performance expectations. The upcoming concentrated mid-year report disclosure period in July will mark the first real performance test after this round of gains. The market will see a clear divergence going forward: only companies with sufficient order volume, improving gross margins, and meeting operational targets will sustain their upward momentum, while concept-driven companies without tangible performance will be weeded out. Retail investors should conduct careful due diligence and avoid chasing hot themes blindly.

Robust global demand for AI hardware and supportive domestic substitution policies have created clear growth opportunities for hardware technology brands, allowing them to align their strategies with industry trends and capture market share.

1. Demand trends: Global AI spending continues to grow rapidly. Gartner has raised its 2026 global AI spending forecast to $2.59 trillion, representing 47% year-on-year growth. China's AI chip market boasts a compound annual growth rate exceeding 25%, giving local AI hardware brands clear room for expansion.

2. R&D guidance: Domestic substitution and AI hardware are the core growth engines today. Brands can follow Naura's "trade short-term profits for long-term technological barriers" strategy, increasing R&D investment in core areas such as 14nm/7nm advanced process nodes and advanced packaging to solidify long-term competitive advantages.

3. Structural shift reminder: Capital is steadily flowing out of consumer and retail sectors into hard technology. Consumer hardware brands need to adjust their product portfolios promptly to align with the demand for AI infrastructure and local supply chain localization.

China's hardware technology sector is currently in a growth cycle driven by policy support and booming global demand. This summary helps hardware sellers identify clear opportunities and risks and prepare in advance.

1. Growth opportunities: Sustained policy support for leading local technology firms and persistent strong demand for chips and related hardware from global AI infrastructure construction have created dual drivers from domestic substitution and AI demand. Semiconductor equipment, chip design, optoelectronic components, and industrial hardware for AI infrastructure are all high-growth tracks. Leading equipment companies have already delivered solid performance: in the first quarter, the semiconductor equipment segment posted 25.78% year-on-year revenue growth and 60.42% year-on-year growth in net profit attributable to shareholders, confirming clear industry momentum.

2. Risk warning and preparation: The sector's valuation is already at an all-time high, with a PE-TTM of 239x, and the market will see significant divergence going forward. Only players that can deliver tangible order volume and profit will retain their market positions, while concept-only players without real operating results will be eliminated. The July mid-year report is the key validation node, and sellers should organize their operating data and prepare well in advance.

The boom in global AI hardware demand and the advancement of domestic substitution policies have created clear growth opportunities for hardware manufacturing factories, which need to adjust their strategic directions to match market demand.

1. Production and design focus: Core market demand is concentrated in 14nm/7nm advanced process equipment, advanced packaging equipment, AI-related chips, and supporting industrial hardware. These areas already account for more than 65% of new orders for leading equipment companies, indicating strong demand. Factories can adjust their production and design layouts around these areas to align with market needs.

2. Business opportunities: Domestic substitution already has a solid performance foundation, and global chip demand is growing rapidly. Both domestic suppliers that participate directly in global supply and those that serve domestic substitution can capture a share of the growing market.

3. Strategic takeaway: Factories should prioritize R&D investment and be willing to sacrifice short-term profits to build long-term technological barriers. At the same time, they should focus on core operating indicators such as capacity utilization and order conversion rate, to convert industry tailwinds into tangible operating results as soon as possible and avoid being only a concept without actual output.

China's hardware technology sector is now in the performance validation phase following a major rally, with a clear trend of market divergence. This has created new business opportunities for relevant service providers, who can adjust their business focus accordingly.

1. Industry trends: Driven by dual forces of domestic substitution policy and booming global AI demand, the sector overall maintains high momentum, but valuations are already at historical highs. Market divergence will intensify going forward, and the gap in service demand between companies of different tiers will continue to widen.

2. Core client pain points: A large number of small and medium-sized hardware technology companies are currently only supported by concepts and lack sufficient performance delivery capabilities, making it difficult to win recognition from the market and investors amid this market cycle. Meanwhile, leading companies need to scale up R&D investment and expand production capacity, and also require comprehensive supporting resource support.

3. Business direction guidance: Service providers can develop targeted solutions around performance reporting, R&D collaboration, capacity optimization, and investor relations management. These solutions help companies convert their technological and order advantages into clear financial results, better prepare for the upcoming performance validation period, and capture the dividends of this industrial cycle.

The price action of China's hardware technology stocks reflects new directions in the development of the technology industry. For industry service and investment and financing platforms, this means adjusting layouts to adapt to new changes.

1. Shifting market demand: The market now prefers assets directly tied to AI hardware and local supply chains over broad exposure to general technology, and investors have significantly higher requirements for performance authenticity. Platforms should adjust their investment promotion and listing screening criteria to prioritize hardware technology companies with tangible order volume, R&D advantages and consistent performance growth.

2. Operational adjustments: With a clear trend of sector divergence, platforms should strengthen tracking of the operating conditions of listed companies, promptly disclose risks to investors, carry out investor education, and guide the market to focus on real performance rather than conceptual narratives.

3. Risk mitigation: The entire sector's valuation is already at an all-time high, and it is extremely sensitive to earnings misses. Platforms should issue risk warnings in advance, avoid excessive hype around unproven concepts, and mitigate risks stemming from sector volatility. At the same time, they can capture opportunities from the industrial cycle by focusing on layout of high-quality leading enterprises to build differentiated competitive advantages.

This round of rally in China's hardware technology stocks exhibits new characteristics different from previous cycles, providing new samples for industrial research and opening multiple valuable new research directions.

1. New industry dynamics: This rally is driven by dual forces of policy-supported domestic substitution and the global boom in AI demand, unlike past rallies driven purely by market sentiment. Capital now favors hardware companies close to the real economy with real performance leverage, and industry concentration is rising. Gains are concentrated in a small number of sub-sectors such as semiconductor equipment, and the market shows a clear pattern of selecting stocks based on relevance to the AI and domestic supply chains.

2. Emerging questions: The sector's valuation is already at the 100th percentile of its historical range, far exceeding current performance levels. It will require multiple consecutive quarters of better-than-expected performance to digest valuations. Currently, only the equipment sub-sector has delivered solid performance; other areas such as chip design have significantly underperformed equipment, so it remains uncertain whether the entire industrial chain can keep up with demand, and divergence risks are prominent.

3. Research implications: This rally confirms that industrial cycles driven by policy plus real demand are more solid than pure concept hype, but they still face notable valuation pressure. Based on historical experience, less than 20% of companies will eventually be able to navigate the full cycle. Going forward, researchers can focus on tracking the performance validation process after the release of mid-year reports, study changes in local hardware companies' share in the global AI supply chain, and summarize the development patterns of domestic substitution.