广告
加载中

子公司半年补税1.2亿 隔膜龙头恩捷股份业绩刚复苏就要还旧账

于莹 2026-06-30 06:08
于莹 2026/06/30 06:08

邦小白快读

EN
全文速览

本文核心内容是锂电隔膜龙头恩捷股份在业绩刚回暖时,曝出三家子公司半年合计补税加滞纳金超1.2亿元的事件,同时梳理了恩捷的发展历程和当前行业现状,核心干货如下:

1. 补税核心信息:本次补税涉及无锡、江西通瑞、珠海恩捷三家子公司,按滞纳金倒推,滞纳周期约两年,属于历史遗留问题,目前不涉及行政处罚,补税款分别计入2025、2026年当期损益,会对应减少两年的归母净利润。

2. 曝露的核心风险:税务问题只是冰山一角,恩捷本身存在明显的内控短板,此前就因募集资金管理违规被监管处罚;同时资金压力巨大,短债合计近96.45亿元,货币资金仅28.89亿元,资金缺口超67亿元,应收账款规模远超当期营收。

3. 公司现状:恩捷刚在2025年扭亏为盈,业绩逐步复苏,但仍面临新一轮扩产导致的过剩风险、固态电池技术迭代风险以及同行竞争压力,复苏之路仍有不确定性。

本文以恩捷股份补税事件为案例,拆解了锂电隔膜行业的发展现状、合规风险和经营问题,可供锂电产业链相关品牌商参考,核心干货如下:

1. 行业发展趋势:当前锂电隔膜行业刚走出产能过剩价格战,落后产能逐步出清,2025年业绩回暖,湿法隔膜因下游大电芯需求推动,市场占比提升至近80.7%,但多家头部企业已再次开启数十亿级扩产,2027-2028年新增产能集中释放后,价格反弹的空间会被明显压制。

2. 研发合规警示:目前业内存在半公开潜规则,不少企业将生产线调试、工艺优化等生产端费用包装成研发投入,违规享受研发费用加计扣除的税收优惠,2025年国家已经将锂电池等“新三样”列为税务重点监管领域,相关违规风险已经集中暴露,品牌商需要规范研发费用归集,避免合规风险。

3. 经营提醒:行业周期波动下,大规模快速扩张容易掩盖内控和资金风险,品牌商需要平衡规模扩张和风险管控,避免重蹈恩捷短债压顶的覆辙。

本文梳理了锂电隔膜行业的最新政策、周期变化和风险机会,可供锂电产业链相关卖家参考,核心干货如下:

1. 政策与合规提示:2025年国家税务总局正式将锂电池、光伏、电动车“新三样”列为税务重点监管领域,严查违规享受研发费用加计扣除、骗取税费优惠的行为,行业内多个企业已经曝出问题,卖家需要尽快开展税务自查,规范费用归集,规避合规风险。

2. 需求变化与机会:当前行业落后产能逐步出清,行业集中度持续提升,储能领域314Ah大电芯成为主流,渗透率超过70%,这类大电芯对隔膜稳定性要求更高,推动下游客户从干法转向湿法隔膜,湿法隔膜的市场占比已经提升至近80.7%,相关卖家可抓住这一需求增长机会。

3. 风险提示:多家头部企业近期集体抛出大规模扩产计划,2027-2028年新增产能集中释放后,价格反弹会受到明显压制;同时固态电池即将在2027年进入商业化关键窗口,2030年市场规模可观,会对传统隔膜需求造成冲击,卖家需要提前布局技术转型应对变化。

本文披露了锂电隔膜行业的生产需求变化和头部企业的经营教训,可供隔膜及相关锂电材料工厂参考,核心干货如下:

1. 生产需求变化:当前储能领域成为隔膜需求增长的核心动力,314Ah大电芯已经成为储能主流,渗透率超过70%,这类大电芯对隔膜的稳定性、一致性要求更高,直接推动下游客户加速从干法隔膜转向湿法隔膜,湿法隔膜的市场占比已经提升至近80.7%,工厂可对应调整生产布局,匹配需求变化。

2. 合规经营提示:当前税务监管明显收紧,行业长期存在将生产线调试、工艺优化等生产端费用包装为研发投入,违规享受税收优惠的潜规则,该行为已经被监管重点查处,多家企业已经曝出补税问题,工厂需要规范税务归集,完善内控体系,避免历史遗留合规风险。

3. 扩张风险提醒:当前头部企业加速扩产,即将迎来新一轮产能集中释放,同时固态电池技术逐步商业化,传统液态隔膜产能存在闲置风险,工厂扩张需要保持谨慎,平衡产能扩张和资金压力,提前布局下一代技术,降低转型风险。

本文梳理了锂电隔膜行业的发展趋势和企业面临的核心痛点,可为服务锂电行业的各类服务商提供参考,核心干货如下:

1. 行业发展整体趋势:锂电隔膜行业刚刚完成一轮周期出清,当前处于业绩修复的拐点,但头部企业已经再次开启大规模扩产,未来大概率会迎来新一轮产能过剩压力;同时固态电池技术逐步逼近2027年的商业化关键窗口,整个行业处于技术迭代的转型期,发展不确定性较高。

2. 客户核心痛点梳理:一是合规痛点,大量锂电企业存在研发费用归集不合规的历史问题,不少企业已经面临补税风险,非常需要税务合规梳理、内控体系优化相关的服务;二是资金痛点,多年快速扩产叠加行业价格战消耗,多数扩张中的企业都面临短债压力大、现金流紧张的问题,需要融资辅导、现金流管理相关服务;三是技术转型痛点,面对固态电池的技术迭代,传统隔膜企业普遍需要技术转型支持,提前布局下一代产品。

本文披露了锂电新能源材料行业的发展现状和企业存在的问题,可为对接锂电产业的各类产业平台、招商平台提供参考,核心干货如下:

1. 企业需求与招商方向:当前锂电头部企业仍在持续扩张产能,对产业用地、融资配套、政策支持有大量需求,同时行业出清过程中,头部企业竞争力持续提升,行业集中度越来越高,平台可针对性对接头部企业的扩张需求,开展精准招商。

2. 合作风险规避提示:平台在对接锂电企业项目、开展合作过程中,需要重点核查企业的内控和资金状况,部分头部企业表面业绩回暖,实际存在内控不完善、短债压顶、资金缺口大等问题,提前做好风险尽调,可规避平台自身的合作风险。

3. 产业布局提示:当前湿法隔膜需求处于增长阶段,同时固态电池是未来明确的技术方向,平台可围绕锂电材料的技术迭代,布局不同技术路线的相关项目,抓住行业转型的发展机会;同时需要警惕新一轮扩产带来的产能过剩风险,合理规划招商规模,避免产业资源浪费。

本文以恩捷股份补税事件为核心案例,梳理了锂电隔膜行业的周期变化和当前存在的产业问题,可为产业研究者提供丰富的研究素材,核心干货如下:

1. 产业发展新动向:锂电隔膜行业近年走完一轮完整周期,2021-2023年是高景气扩产阶段,2023-2024年进入产能过剩价格战阶段,2025年进入出清后业绩回暖的拐点;当前储能大电芯推广带动湿法隔膜市场占比提升至近80.7%,头部企业再次开启扩产周期,同时固态电池预计2027年迎来商业化关键窗口,行业面临技术迭代的关键节点。

2. 产业暴露的新问题:随着监管对“新三样”税务监管收紧,行业长期存在的生产费用包装为研发费用、违规享受税收优惠的潜规则浮出水面,该问题暴露出新能源企业高增长扩张阶段,普遍存在内控体系建设滞后的问题,同时头部企业大规模扩产后,普遍存在资金承压、短债缺口大的共性问题。

3. 可供延伸研究的方向:研究者可进一步研究新能源行业周期波动下,头部企业规模扩张与风险管控的平衡机制,技术迭代对现有龙头企业竞争力的影响,以及新能源企业税务合规的共性问题与治理路径等。

返回默认

声明:快读内容全程由AI生成,请注意甄别信息。如您发现问题,请发送邮件至 run@ebrun.com 。

我是 品牌商 卖家 工厂 服务商 平台商 研究者 帮我再读一遍。

Quick Summary

This article covers a major recent event involving leading lithium-ion separator manufacturer ENjie Corporation: just as its financial performance began recovering, three of its subsidiaries were ordered to pay a combined 120 million yuan in back taxes and late fees. The article also reviews Enjie’s growth trajectory and the current state of the lithium-ion separator industry, with key takeaways as follows:

1. Core details of the back tax case: The补缴 involves three subsidiaries located in Wuxi, Jiangxi Tongrui and Zhuhai Enjie. Working backwards from the late fees, the unpaid taxes were outstanding for roughly two years, qualifying this as a legacy issue. No administrative penalties have been issued to date, and the back tax charges will be recognized in current profit and loss for 2025 and 2026, reducing attributable net income for both years accordingly.

2. Key risks exposed: The tax issue is just the tip of the iceberg. Enjie has clear weaknesses in internal control, having previously been penalized by regulators for mismanagement of raised funds. The company also faces severe liquidity pressure: it holds nearly 9.645 billion yuan in short-term debt against just 2.889 billion yuan in cash, representing a funding gap of more than 6.7 billion yuan. Its accounts receivable balance far exceeds its current annual revenue.

3. Current company outlook: Enjie returned to profitability in 2025 and its performance is gradually recovering. However, it still faces risks of overcapacity from a new round of capacity expansion, technological disruption from solid-state batteries, and intense competition from peers, leaving the path of recovery uncertain.

This article uses Enjie’s back tax incident as a case study to analyze the current state of the lithium-ion separator industry, its compliance risks and operational challenges, with key insights for brands along the lithium battery supply chain as follows:

1. Industry development trends: The lithium-ion separator industry has just emerged from a period of overcapacity and price war, with outdated capacity gradually being phased out and performance rebounding in 2025. Driven by downstream demand for large-format cells, the market share of wet-process separators has risen to nearly 80.7%. However, multiple leading industry players have already launched new multi-billion-yuan capacity expansion projects. When the new capacity comes online in 2027–2028, any potential price rebound will be significantly capped.

2. R&D compliance warning: An open secret in the industry is that many companies misclassify production-related expenses such as production line commissioning and process optimization as R&D spending to illegally claim additional tax deductions for R&D expenses. In 2025, Chinese authorities designated lithium batteries and other "three new products" (exports of new energy products) as a key tax compliance supervision target, and these non-compliance risks are now coming to light. Brands need to standardize R&D expense classification to avoid compliance risks.

3. Operational reminder: Amid industry cyclical fluctuations, rapid large-scale expansion can easily mask internal control and funding risks. Brands must balance growth with risk management to avoid repeating Enjie’s mistake of being overwhelmed by short-term debt.

This article summarizes the latest policies, cyclical shifts, risks and opportunities in the lithium-ion separator industry, with key takeaways for sellers along the lithium battery supply chain as follows:

1. Policy and compliance reminder: In 2025, China’s State Taxation Administration officially designated the "three new products"—lithium batteries, photovoltaics, and electric vehicles—as key tax supervision targets, cracking down on illegal claims for R&D expense deductions and other tax incentives. Multiple companies in the industry have already run into trouble, so sellers should conduct internal tax audits as soon as possible, standardize expense classification, and mitigate compliance risks.

2. Demand shifts and opportunities: Outdated capacity in the industry is gradually being eliminated, and market concentration continues to rise. The 314Ah large-format cell has become the mainstream for energy storage, with penetration exceeding 70%. These large cells have higher requirements for separator stability, pushing downstream customers to switch from dry-process to wet-process separators, lifting wet-process separators’ market share to nearly 80.7%. Relevant sellers can capitalize on this growing demand.

3. Risk warning: Multiple leading players have recently announced large-scale capacity expansion plans. When new capacity hits the market en masse in 2027–2028, any price rebound will be significantly capped. Meanwhile, solid-state batteries are entering a critical commercialization window in 2027, and are projected to reach a sizeable market by 2030, which will dampen demand for conventional separators. Sellers should prepare for technological transformation in advance to adapt to coming changes.

This article discloses shifts in production demand and operational lessons from leading players, with key insights for separator and lithium battery material manufacturers as follows:

1. Shifts in production demand: The energy storage sector has become the core driver of separator demand growth. The 314Ah large-format cell is now the energy storage mainstream, with penetration exceeding 70%. These large cells have higher requirements for separator stability and consistency, accelerating downstream customers’ shift from dry-process to wet-process separators and lifting wet-process separators’ market share to nearly 80.7%. Manufacturers can adjust their production layout accordingly to match shifting demand.

2. Compliance operation reminder: Tax regulation has tightened noticeably. A long-standing industry open secret—the misclassification of production expenses such as production line commissioning and process optimization as R&D spending to illegally claim tax incentives—is now being heavily investigated by regulators, with multiple companies already facing back tax orders. Manufacturers need to standardize tax classification, improve internal control systems, and eliminate legacy compliance risks.

3. Expansion risk reminder: Leading players are accelerating capacity expansion, and a new wave of concentrated capacity launches is coming. At the same time, solid-state battery technology is gradually commercializing, creating a risk of underutilization for conventional liquid electrolyte separator capacity. Manufacturers should approach expansion cautiously, balance capacity growth and funding pressure, and prepare for next-generation technology in advance to reduce transition risk.

This article summarizes development trends and core pain points for companies in the lithium-ion separator industry, with key insights for service providers serving the lithium battery sector as follows:

1. Overall industry trends: The lithium-ion separator industry has just completed a cycle of capacity rationalization and is now at an inflection point of earnings recovery. However, leading players have already launched a new round of large-scale expansion, making a new period of overcapacity highly likely. Meanwhile, solid-state battery technology is approaching its 2027 commercialization critical window, putting the entire industry in a transition period of technological iteration with high uncertainty.

2. Core client pain points: First, compliance pain: A large number of lithium battery companies have legacy issues with non-compliant R&D expense classification, and many are already facing back tax risk, creating strong demand for tax compliance review and internal control system optimization services. Second, funding pain: Years of rapid expansion, combined with industry price wars, have left most expanding companies facing heavy short-term debt pressure and tight cash flow, creating demand for financing advisory and cash flow management services. Third, technological transition pain: Faced with technological disruption from solid-state batteries, conventional separator manufacturers broadly need technical transition support to prepare for next-generation product development.

This article discloses the current state of the lithium new energy materials industry and existing corporate issues, with key insights for industrial and investment promotion platforms that serve the lithium battery sector as follows:

1. Corporate demand and investment promotion direction: Leading lithium battery companies are still expanding capacity, creating strong demand for industrial land, financing support and policy incentives. Meanwhile, during the capacity rationalization process, leading players have grown more competitive and market concentration continues to rise. Platforms can target the expansion needs of leading companies and carry out targeted investment promotion.

2. Cooperation risk mitigation: When matching lithium battery company projects and carrying out cooperation, platforms should prioritize auditing companies’ internal control and funding status. Some leading companies show recovering performance on the surface, but actually suffer from inadequate internal controls, heavy short-term debt, and large funding gaps. Conducting due diligence in advance helps platforms avoid cooperation risks.

3. Industrial layout guidance: Wet-process separators are currently in a period of demand growth, while solid-state batteries are a clear long-term technological direction. Platforms can develop projects along different technological paths centered on lithium material iteration to capitalize on growth opportunities from industry transition. At the same time, platforms need to guard against overcapacity risks from the new round of expansion, plan investment promotion scale reasonably, and avoid waste of industrial resources.

This article uses Enjie’s back tax incident as a core case study to summarize industry cyclical shifts and current industrial issues in the lithium-ion separator sector, providing rich research materials for industry analysts, with key insights as follows:

1. New industrial trends: The lithium-ion separator industry has completed a full industry cycle in recent years: 2021–2023 was a boom period of high expansion, 2023–2024 entered a phase of overcapacity and price war, and 2025 reached an inflection point of earnings recovery after capacity rationalization. Today, the adoption of large-format energy storage cells has lifted wet-process separator market share to nearly 80.7%. Leading players have entered a new expansion cycle, while solid-state batteries are expected to reach a critical commercialization window in 2027, putting the industry at a key technological transition node.

2. Newly exposed industrial problems: As regulators tighten tax oversight of the "three new products", the long-standing industry practice of misclassifying production expenses as R&D spending to illegally claim tax incentives has been brought to light. This issue reveals that during the high-growth expansion phase, new energy enterprises generally lag behind in building internal control systems. Additionally, after large-scale expansion, leading players broadly face the common issues of funding pressure and large short-term debt gaps.

3. Directions for further research: Researchers can further explore the balance mechanism between scale expansion and risk management for leading new energy enterprises amid cyclical industry fluctuations, the impact of technological iteration on the competitiveness of incumbent market leaders, and the common issues and governance approaches for tax compliance among new energy enterprises.

Disclaimer: The "Quick Summary" content is entirely generated by AI. Please exercise discretion when interpreting the information. For issues or corrections, please email run@ebrun.com .

I am a Brand Seller Factory Service Provider Marketplace Seller Researcher Read it again.

作为锂电隔膜龙头,恩捷股份近几年经历了从“狂奔”到“寒冬”再到“复苏”的周期性波动。

就在公司业绩回暖的过程中,近半年内,恩捷股份接连发布三家子公司的补税公告,合计补缴税款与滞纳金超1.2亿元。按每日万分之五的滞纳金标准倒推,这几笔税款的滞纳周期普遍在两年左右。

2025年,恰逢国家税务总局将锂电池、光伏、电动车“新三样”列为重点监管领域,锂电行业违规享受研发费用加计扣除的现象被频频曝光。

在湿法隔膜赛道,将生产线调试、工艺优化等生产端费用包装为研发投入,已是业内半公开的潜规则。

那么,恩捷股份此番集中补税,是否也踩中了研发费用归集的合规红线?目前曝出问题的仅三家子公司,而公司生产基地遍布全国十余座城市,后续是否还会有更多税务合规问题出现?

从借跨界收购快速切入锂电池隔膜赛道,到行业风口期时的产能翻倍,恩捷股份一路狂奔的背后,税务风波已经暴露出其内控体系的短板。

除了内控问题外,恩捷股份还要面临近百亿短债压顶、资金缺口高悬等难题,这也让公司的“复苏”之路增添了一丝不确定性。

01 子公司合计补税近1.2亿元

6月23日,恩捷股份发布公告称,公司下属子公司珠海恩捷新材料科技有限公司(以下简称“珠海恩捷”)对纳税义务履行情况开展了日常合规自查,经自查确认,珠海恩捷需补缴税款及滞纳金总计2959.56万元,其中:补缴税款2144.45万元,滞纳金815.10万元,当前已补缴完毕。

根据相关规定,上述事项不属于前期会计差错,不涉及前期财务数据追溯调整,因而上述补缴税款及滞纳金将计入2026年当期损益,预计将影响公司2026年归母净利润2818.09万元。

「创业最前线」注意到,这已经是恩捷股份今年披露的第三份子公司补税公告。

5月7日,恩捷股份称,公司下属子公司江西省通瑞新能源科技发展有限公司需补缴税款及滞纳金总计4610.27万元,将计入2026年当期损益,预计将影响2026年归母净利润4343.24万元;

1月27日,恩捷股份宣布,公司下属子公司无锡恩捷新材料科技有限公司需补缴企业所得税4402.47万元,补缴的税款将计入2025年当期损益,预计将影响公司2025年归母净利润4192.03万元。

一家市值600余亿元的锂电隔膜龙头,半年接连挂出三份补税公告,三笔合计税款本金约9985.56万元,滞纳金约1986.72万元,总补税成本近1.2亿元。

而如果按每日万分之五的滞纳金标准倒推,对应的税款滞纳周期普遍在两年左右。这意味着,这些补税事项并非当期操作走偏,而是前两年的历史遗留问题,在此轮自查中被集中排查、集中清理。

另外,三起事项均明确为“日常合规自查发现”,通常只需补缴税款及按日加收的滞纳金,不涉及行政处罚。

「创业最前线」发现,2025年以来,国家税务总局明确将“新三样”(锂电池、光伏、电动车)列为重点监管领域,去年8月,国家税务总局还专门曝光了锂电企业违规享受研发费用加计扣除、骗取税费优惠的典型案件。

从处罚的案例看,2021至2023年,江西南氏锂电新材料有限公司通过扩大研发人员范围,将非直接从事研发工作的人员工资费用668.22万元纳入研发支出进行申报,违规享受研发费用加计扣除税费优惠。

回到恩捷股份所处的隔膜行业来看,锂电湿法隔膜的核心壁垒普遍在高端生产设备,而非材料配方。行业内部分公司的研发投入,存在生产线调试、工艺优化的生产端费用,真正的基础材料、下一代技术研发占比极低。因此,有不少公司会把生产环节的费用包装成研发,既拿了税收优惠,又讲了技术故事。

那么,恩捷股份的具体补税原因是否与之有关呢?

另外,「创业最前线」注意到,如果真的按照滞纳金计算,税款滞纳周期普遍在两年左右乃至更长,那恩捷股份为何将补税损失计入2025、2026年财报,而非历史年度追溯调整?是否存在平滑景气期业绩、掩盖当年真实盈利承压的操作?会计处理选择不追溯调整的核心依据是什么?

对于上述疑问,「创业最前线」也向公司发去了采访函,但截至发稿,对方尚未回复。

02 扩张背后难掩内控和资金风险

近几年,随着业绩的提升,恩捷股份在全国布局的规模在逐渐扩大。

2016年上市时,公司主业还是烟标、BOPP薄膜等包装印刷业务,隔膜只是实控人家族在上市平台体外培育的资产。

2017年,公司(当时名为创新股份)拟以55.5亿元对价收购上海恩捷100%股权,但这笔交易最后只收购了90.08%股权,此后又收购了部分股权(天眼查显示,当前公司直接持有上海恩捷95.2222%股权);2018年,公司正式更名“恩捷股份”,完成从传统包装向新能源材料的跨界转型。

这一年,公司同步启动了全国产能布局,从仅有上海一处生产基地,快速形成“华东+华南+华中”的三角产能布局,隔膜年产能一举跃升至13亿平方米,跻身行业第一梯队。

2021年新能源车销量爆发,隔膜成为全产业链最紧缺的环节之一,价格一路上涨,行业进入“有产能就有利润”的黄金期。

于是,恩捷股份再次按下加速键,开启史上最大规模扩产。在国内,公司在湖北、福建等地与亿纬锂能、宁德时代等下游客户合资建厂,绑定订单同步落地产能;也先后启动匈牙利、美国俄亥俄州工厂,成为最早大规模出海建设湿法隔膜生产基地的龙头企业之一。

在这个过程中,其产能规模从2020年的33亿平方米,快速攀升至2024年底的117亿平方米,四年累计上涨2.5倍,全球市占率最高突破35%。

近几年来,恩捷股份的营收一路攀升,从2021年的79.82亿元,攀升至2025年的136.32亿元。

企业若忽视合规管控,其风险在业绩上行期往往会被高增长所掩盖。但一旦行业进入存量竞争、监管环境收紧,管理漏洞就会转化为实实在在的经营成本。

如今,其补税风波涉及了珠海、江西、无锡三个地方的子公司,除此之外,公司在云南、上海、江苏、湖北等地还有多个生产基地,若启动全面自查,后续是否还会涉及税款的补缴?对利润的冲击是否存在持续放大的可能?

可以说,税务问题只是浮出水面的冰山一角,其背后更应该关注的是企业管理以及内控等深层问题。

例如,2025年4月,恩捷股份曾因募集资金管理违规被云南证监局责令改正,记入诚信档案,也反映出公司在内控上的漏洞。

如今,恩捷股份仍在计划进行大规模扩产。2026年5月,恩捷股份宣布,计划在四川投资建设年产50亿平方米锂电池隔膜项目,总投资额约40亿元。

持续扩大的产能规模,除了加大管理半径,导致在管理上可能存在不足,更直接的是对资金造成的压力。

截至2026年一季度末,恩捷股份短期借款73.33亿元、一年内到期的非流动负债23.12亿元,二者合计高达96.45亿元。而同期货币资金仅28.89亿元,若以此粗略计算,公司短债资金缺口达67.56亿元。

而公司大量资金被客户占用,营收只是“纸面富贵”——2026年一季度末的应收账款高达76.91亿元,同比增长46.46%,规模远超同期营收39.08亿元。

在此背景下,恩捷股份再扛40亿元投资,财务压力不言而喻。公司坦言,本项目资金通过自有资金和自筹资金等方式解决,由此将导致公司现金流减少,增加财务风险;此外,本项目投资额较大,若公司融资不能及时到位,项目进度将受到影响。

03 站在行业周期的关键拐点

补税风波,叠加持续承压的资金,并非恩捷股份在经营中单独存在的问题。作为全球湿法锂电隔膜的绝对龙头,公司正站在一轮行业周期的关键拐点上。

锂电池隔膜是动力电池的核心内层构件,承担阻隔正负极、传导锂离子的功能,技术壁垒高,曾是新能源产业链中利润率最丰厚的环节之一。

2021年—2023年的新能源汽车高景气周期中,隔膜一度成为全产业链极度紧缺的环节,大量资本涌入赛道,头部企业与二线玩家同步开启大规模扩产,恩捷股份也正是在这一阶段完成了全国乃至全球的产能布局。

但随着行业产能集中释放与下游电池厂“价格战”向上传导,隔膜行业仅用两年时间便从供不应求滑向产能过剩。

这时,价格成为有力的竞争武器。根据百川盈孚数据,2024年年初国内7um湿法隔膜主流报价为1.10-1.45元/平方米,到了年末降至0.75-0.93元/平方米。

为守住市场份额,恩捷股份不得不跟随行业降价,而重资产属性下固定折旧刚性存在,产能利用率下滑进一步放大了盈利的恶化程度。

2024年,恩捷股份实现营业收入101.64亿元,同比下降15.6%;归母净利润亏损5.56亿元,为上市以来首次年度亏损。

与此同时,公司毛利率从巅峰时期的近50%骤降至11.07%,第四季度单季毛利率甚至转负,叠加存货跌价与资产减值计提,经营压力飙升。

进入2025年,行业曙光初现。一方面,落后产能在“价格战”中逐步出清,行业集中度持续提升;另一方面,在储能领域,314Ah大电芯成了主流,渗透率超过70%。

这种大电芯对隔膜的稳定性和一致性要求更高,导致下游客户加速从干法隔膜转向湿法隔膜。根据研究机构EVTank的数据,2025年湿法隔膜的市场占比从2024年的76.9%,提升到2025年的近80.7%。

2025年,公司实现营业收入136.33亿元,同比增长34.13%;归母净利润1.43亿元,成功扭亏为盈。

2026年一季度,修复势头进一步加速——实现营业收入39.08亿元,同比增长43.21%;归母净利润2.60亿元,同比激增901.70%;毛利率回升至28.09%,同比增长63.89%。

但业绩回暖并不意味着风险完全出清,相较于2022年巅峰时期40亿元的归母净利润,当前盈利水平仍有明显差距。站在周期反转的关键节点,恩捷股份至少面临三重不容忽视的考验。

首当其冲的是新一轮产能扩张隐忧。就在行业刚从“价格战”中得以喘息之际,头部企业已再次开启扩产周期。几乎就在恩捷股份宣布拟投资40亿元在四川荣县扩产同期,沧州明珠、璞泰来等同行企业也纷纷抛出数十亿级扩产计划。仅仅半个月,行业合计宣布新增产能达到146亿平方米。

这意味着,到了2027年—2028年新增产能集中释放后,隔膜价格反弹的持续性与弹性将受到压制。

其次,是前文提到的债务与现金流压力,多年加速扩产叠加“价格战”消耗,恩捷股份资金能力持续承压。

更值得关注的是,技术路线迭代的长期风险。

固态电池被视为下一代动力电池技术方向,也成为悬在传统隔膜头上的“达摩克利斯之剑”。行业普遍把2027年看作固态电池商业化的关键窗口,根据国信证券预测,到2030年,全固态电池市场规模可能到1138亿。

虽然公司已经在布局半固态和固态电解质,比如控股子公司江苏三合进军半固态隔膜,湖南恩捷前沿新材料建设了10吨级固态电解质产线,但要实现大规模替代,还得关注行业技术路线方向。

此外,若固态电池成为行业趋势,公司庞大的液态隔膜产能将面临闲置风险。

不仅如此,中材科技、星源材质等国内竞争对手持续追赶,海外企业也在加速本地化布局,恩捷股份的全球市占率优势并非牢不可破。

对于恩捷股份而言,周期反转带来的不仅是业绩修复的窗口,更是补上内部管理短板的契机。能否在规模扩张与风险管控之间找到平衡,将决定这家隔膜龙头能否真正平稳穿越下一轮周期。

注:文/于莹,文章来源:创业最前线(公众号ID:chuangyezuiqianxian),本文为作者独立观点,不代表亿邦动力立场。

文章来源:创业最前线

广告
微信
朋友圈

这么好看,分享一下?

朋友圈 分享

APP内打开

+1
+1
微信好友 朋友圈 新浪微博 QQ空间
关闭
收藏成功
发送
/140 0