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昆仑芯为何需要一场「带货式IPO」?

刘诗雨 2026-07-02 09:15
刘诗雨 2026/07/02 09:15

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本文核心介绍百度旗下AI芯片公司昆仑芯计划赴港IPO推出的“带货式IPO”模式,梳理了该模式的背后逻辑、行业背景与潜在风险。

1. 该模式的核心内容是要求意向投资人认购股权的同时,采购对应倍数的芯片,目前属于意向性安排并非硬性约束,核心目的是筛选有持续采购能力的产业投资人,而非单纯财务投资者。

2. 当前行业背景与昆仑芯现状:AI芯片供需紧张,国产算力替代加速,昆仑芯2025年中国云端AI加速器出货量位列国产厂商第三,2024年营收20亿元,预计2025年营收35亿元实现盈亏平衡,2026年达66亿元,目前需要拓展外部客户淡化百度标签证明独立性。

3. 该模式既可以帮昆仑芯锁定订单提升估值,也符合百度转型AI基础设施平台的需求,同时行业存在AI泡沫,利益绑定会放大风险,长期竞争力仍要看产品场景表现。

本文总结了国产AI芯片品牌的发展现状与创新运作思路,对科技品牌的建设、资本运作、生态布局有较多参考干货。

1. 当前行业趋势:AI芯片供需紧张,国产算力替代加速推进,市场需求旺盛,头部国产厂商普遍处于产能紧张需求旺盛的状态,金融、能源、互联网、运营商等多领域对国产芯片都有刚性需求,品牌发展处于红利期。

2. 品牌建设思路:从大厂孵化分拆的品牌,很容易被外界质疑过度依赖母公司,昆仑芯通过“采购+认购”的IPO模式,强化外部客户叙事,淡化母公司标签,证明自身独立市场竞争力,对同类品牌有较高借鉴意义。

3. 生态运作参考:当前行业已经出现资本+订单绑定的生态结盟趋势,品牌可以通过绑定上下游产业资本,构建正向增长循环,提升品牌估值和市场排位,同时需要注意,长期品牌竞争力仍要回归产品,利益绑定也会放大行业风险,需要警惕AI泡沫。

本文梳理了AI芯片赛道的市场环境、创新模式以及机会风险,能给相关赛道从业者提供参考。

1. 当前市场机会:国产AI算力替代加速推进,AI芯片整体需求旺盛,头部国产厂商普遍处于产能紧张状态,云端AI芯片市场增长空间大,外部客户拓展需求强,赛道从业者有较多增长机会。

2. 可参考的创新运作模式:“资本+订单”绑定的合作模式,在IPO阶段引入有实际采购需求的产业投资人,提前锁定大额订单,能构建“认购股份—采购订单—营收提升—估值上涨”的正向循环,该模式已经经过昆仑芯的小范围测试验证可行性。

3. 需要警惕的风险:行业目前已经存在一定AI泡沫,上下游深度利益绑定会放大系统性风险,一旦某一环节出现问题就会引发连锁反应,对从母公司分拆的项目来说,需要提前解决单一客户依赖的质疑,长期竞争力最终取决于产品在不同场景的实际表现。

本文梳理了当前国产AI芯片行业的需求环境和发展趋势,给AI芯片生产制造企业提供了较多参考干货。

1. 当下商业机会:当前AI芯片行业整体处于供需紧张的状态,国产替代加速推进,市场需求极为旺盛,头部国产AI芯片企业都处于产能不足的状态,给芯片生产、制造环节带来了充足稳定的订单机会。

2. 产品生产设计方向:当前AI芯片主要面向云端算力场景,覆盖金融、能源、汽车、互联网、运营商等多个行业,不同客户的采购规模从几十卡到上万卡不等,生产设计需要匹配不同场景的差异化算力需求。

3. 数字化转型启示:行业已经显现出产业资本与订单绑定的生态化发展趋势,芯片企业可以依托这种模式锁定长期稳定订单,生产端也可以配合这种模式推进数字化生产,提前规划产能匹配稳定增长的市场需求,同时需要警惕AI泡沫带来的产能过剩风险。

本文梳理了AI芯片产业的最新发展动向,总结了行业核心痛点与可参考的解决方案,对AI产业相关服务商有较高参考价值。

1. 行业发展最新趋势:当前AI产业已经兴起“循环投资”的新趋势,资本、订单、产能被整合进同一个增长飞轮,AI芯片企业已经开始把这种绑定模式前置到IPO阶段,这种做法未来很可能成为国内AI芯片行业的新常态,给服务商带来了新的服务需求。

2. 行业核心客户痛点:从互联网大厂分拆出来的AI芯片企业,普遍面临两个核心痛点,一是需要淡化母公司标签,向市场证明自身的独立市场竞争力,二是需要提前锁定大额订单支撑上市估值,同时供需紧张背景下也需要筛选长期稳定的合作方。

3. 可探索的服务方向:“采购+资本认购”的绑定模式可以同时解决多个痛点,服务商可以围绕这类产业绑定需求,开发针对性的资本对接、订单匹配、上市路演服务,抓住行业新机会。

本文梳理了AI芯片产业资本运作的新趋势,给深耕硬科技、AI赛道的产业平台、资本平台提供了较多参考干货。

1. 当前产业端的新需求:AI芯片企业上市过程中,已经不再满足于引入纯财务投资,更需要引入有实际采购需求的产业投资人,希望通过资本绑定获得稳定订单,同时提升自身在市场上的独立认可度,这给平台带来了新的服务方向。

2. 平台运营可探索的新方向:在招商和对接业务中,可以针对性匹配有采购需求的产业客户和AI芯片企业,打造“资本+订单”一体化的对接服务模式,该模式已经经过市场验证,昆仑芯此前就已经测试过该模式的可行性,市场接受度较高。

3. 风向规避要点:上下游深度利益绑定的模式会放大行业风险,当前AI行业已经存在一定泡沫,平台在运营相关业务时,需要提前提示潜在风险,提醒合作方长期竞争力最终还是依赖产品性能,避免过度捆绑引发系统性风险。

本文梳理了国内AI芯片产业资本运作的全新模式,提供了新鲜的产业案例,对研究AI产业发展有较高价值。

1. 产业新动向:国内AI芯片产业出现“资本+订单”深度绑定的新趋势,昆仑芯将这种绑定模式前置到IPO阶段,推出了特殊的“带货式IPO”,这种做法符合当前国产替代的行业背景,很可能会对后续准备上市的国产AI芯片企业产生示范效应,成为行业新动向。

2. 新商业模式总结:这种模式属于AI行业的“循环投资”商业模式,通过将上下游的资本、订单、产能绑定在一起,形成正向增长循环,类似的模式海外英伟达、AMD等头部企业已经应用,国内AI产业的生态结盟趋势已经逐步显现。

3. 值得深入研究的新问题:这种模式既解决了大厂分拆AI企业的独立认可度问题,也带来了新的风险,利益绑定会放大行业泡沫的影响,该案例也折射出互联网大厂分拆AI业务的资本路径和转型逻辑,为研究国内AI产业发展提供了典型样本。

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Quick Summary

This article centers on Kunlun Core, the AI chip subsidiary of Baidu, and its "sales-driven IPO" model as it prepares for a Hong Kong public offering, analyzing the model's underlying logic, industry context and potential risks.

1. At its core, the model requires interested investors to purchase a corresponding volume of chips along with their equity subscriptions. The arrangement is currently non-binding, and its core goal is to screen industrial investors with long-term procurement capabilities rather than bringing in purely financial investors.

2. Industry background and current status: AI chips are facing tight supply amid accelerating domestic substitution of computing power. Kunlun Core ranked third among domestic vendors in China's cloud AI accelerator shipments for 2025. It posted 2 billion yuan in revenue in 2024, and projects revenue of 3.5 billion yuan and break-even profitability in 2025, followed by 6.6 billion yuan in revenue in 2026. The company currently needs to expand its external customer base to reduce its reliance on Baidu and prove its independent standing.

3. This model helps Kunlun Core lock in orders to boost its valuation, and aligns with Baidu's transition to an AI infrastructure platform. However, the model will amplify existing risks stemming from the current AI industry bubble, and the company's long-term competitiveness will ultimately depend on its product performance across application scenarios.

This article summarizes the development status and innovative operation strategies of domestic AI chip brands, offering actionable insights for tech brand building, capital operations and ecosystem layout.

1. Current industry trends: Supply of AI chips cannot keep up with demand amid accelerating domestic substitution of computing power. Leading domestic chipmakers all face capacity constraints against strong market demand, with rigid demand for domestic chips across finance, energy, internet, telecom and multiple other sectors, putting domestic brands in a period of growth dividend.

2. Brand building insights: Brands spun off from large tech groups often face market skepticism over excessive reliance on their parent companies. Kunlun Core's "procurement + subscription" IPO model strengthens its positioning as an independent player with broad external customer support, dilutes its parent company association, and proves its independent market competitiveness, offering strong reference value for similar brands.

3. Ecosystem operation takeaways: The industry is already seeing a trend of ecosystem alliance through capital-order binding. Brands can build a positive growth cycle by partnering with upstream and downstream industrial capital to improve valuation and market positioning. That said, long-term brand competitiveness still depends on product performance, and interest binding amplifies industry risks, so the AI bubble should not be ignored.

This article sorts out the market environment, innovative models, opportunities and risks in the AI chip track, offering reference for industry practitioners.

1. Current market opportunities: Accelerating domestic substitution of AI computing power has created broad overall demand for AI chips, with leading domestic vendors all facing capacity constraints. The cloud AI chip market has large room for growth, and chipmakers have strong demand for external customer expansion, creating abundant growth opportunities for track practitioners.

2. A reference innovative operation model: The "capital + order" binding model introduces industrial investors with actual procurement needs during the IPO stage to lock in large orders in advance, creating a positive cycle of "equity subscription → procurement orders → revenue growth → higher valuation". The model has been tested on a small scale and proven feasible by Kunlun Core.

3. Risks to watch for: The AI industry is already showing signs of bubble, and deep interest binding between upstream and downstream players amplifies systemic risk, where a problem in any single link can trigger a chain reaction. For projects spun off from parent companies, it is critical to address market concerns over single-customer dependency early on, and long-term competitiveness ultimately depends on actual product performance across different scenarios.

This article analyzes the demand environment and development trends of China's domestic AI chip industry, offering practical insights for AI chip manufacturing players.

1. Current business opportunities: The AI chip industry as a whole is facing supply shortages amid accelerating domestic substitution and extremely strong market demand. Leading domestic AI chip companies all struggle with insufficient capacity, bringing abundant, stable order opportunities for chip production and manufacturing links.

2. Product development and manufacturing direction: Current AI chips are primarily targeted at cloud computing scenarios, serving finance, energy, automotive, internet, telecom and other industries. Customer procurement volumes range from dozens of cards to tens of thousands of cards, so product design and manufacturing need to accommodate differentiated computing power requirements across different scenarios.

3. Insights for digital transformation: The industry is already moving toward ecosystem development that binds industrial capital and orders together, allowing chip companies to lock in long-term stable orders through this model. Manufacturing players can advance digital production to match this model, plan capacity in advance to meet steadily growing market demand, and remain alert to the risk of overcapacity caused by the AI bubble.

This article outlines the latest developments in the AI chip industry, summarizes core industry pain points and actionable solutions, offering high reference value for AI industry-related service providers.

1. Latest industry trends: A new trend of "circular investing" has emerged in the AI industry, integrating capital, orders and capacity into a single growth flywheel. AI chip companies have started to bring this binding model forward to the IPO stage, and this approach is likely to become the new normal for China's domestic AI chip industry, creating new service demand for providers.

2. Core pain points for key clients: AI chip companies spun off from large Chinese internet groups universally face two core pain points: they need to dilute their parent company association to prove independent market competitiveness to investors, and they need to lock in large orders in advance to support their IPO valuation, while also needing to screen long-term stable partners amid ongoing supply shortages.

3. New service directions to explore: The "procurement + capital subscription" binding model solves multiple pain points at once. Service providers can develop targeted capital matchmaking, order matching and IPO roadshow services around this industrial binding demand to capture new industry opportunities.

This article sorts out new trends in capital operation in the AI chip industry, offering practical insights for industrial and capital platforms focused on hard tech and AI sectors.

1. New demand from industry players: When preparing for an IPO, AI chip companies are no longer satisfied with bringing in purely financial investors. They increasingly prioritize industrial investors with actual procurement demand, to secure stable orders through capital binding while boosting their independent market recognition, which creates new service directions for platforms.

2. New directions for platform operation: In investment sourcing and matchmaking business, platforms can specifically match AI chip companies with industrial clients that have procurement demand, to build an integrated "capital + order" matchmaking model. This model has already been market-tested: Kunlun Core has verified its feasibility, and it enjoys high market acceptance.

3. Risk mitigation guidance: Deep interest binding between upstream and downstream players amplifies industry risks, and the AI sector already has a certain degree of bubble. When operating related business, platforms should proactively disclose potential risks, remind counterparties that long-term competitiveness ultimately depends on product performance, and avoid systemic risk caused by excessive binding.

This paper sorts out the brand-new capital operation model emerging in China's domestic AI chip industry, provides a fresh industry case, and offers high value for research on AI industry development.

1. New industry development: A new trend of deep "capital + order" binding has emerged in China's domestic AI chip industry. Kunlun Core has brought this binding model forward to the IPO stage with its special "sales-driven IPO" approach. Aligned with the current industry backdrop of domestic substitution, this approach is likely to set a precedent for other domestic AI chip companies preparing for public listing and become a new industry norm.

2. Summary of the new business model: This model qualifies as a "circular investing" business model for the AI sector. By binding upstream and downstream capital, orders and capacity together, it forms a positive growth cycle. Similar models are already used by leading global players including NVIDIA and AMD, and the trend of ecosystem alliance is gradually taking shape in China's domestic AI industry.

3. New questions for further research: This model solves the problem of independent market recognition for AI companies spun off from large tech groups, but it also introduces new risks, as interest binding amplifies the impact of industry bubbles. This case also reflects the capital path and transformation logic of spinning off AI businesses from large Chinese internet groups, providing a typical sample for research on the development of China's domestic AI industry.

Disclaimer: The "Quick Summary" content is entirely generated by AI. Please exercise discretion when interpreting the information. For issues or corrections, please email run@ebrun.com .

I am a Brand Seller Factory Service Provider Marketplace Seller Researcher Read it again.

6月29日,百度在资本市场上迎来一次久违的反弹。截止7月1日盘前,百度港股两日累计上涨11%。

点燃资本市场的是百度旗下的AI芯片公司昆仑芯。据The Information报道,昆仑芯计划赴港上市,目标估值约500亿美元,这一数字远高过百度目前约360亿美元的市值。

比估值更耐人寻味的是这次IPO传出的认购方式,据The Information报道,潜在投资者被要求购买其认购额3至7倍价值的芯片。这个「配股」不可谓不高。

「AI芯片公司在IPO阶段以这种方式筛选投资人,此前市场上并不常见。」一位资深芯片投资人向《降噪NoNoise》表示。

这听上去像是将股权认购与产品采购放在了同一张桌子上,甚至有「带货式IPO」的意味。但如果只将其理解为上市前签订单来支撑估值,可能把百度的意图想得太简单了。

上述投资人向《降噪NoNoise》透露,据其了解,所谓「采购+认购」只是出现在路演沟通中,并非硬性约束,「它没有限定多长时间内必须采购多少金额,更像是一种意向性安排。」

至于为何要这样做,上述投资人认为,昆仑芯想筛选出本身就有持续采购能力的投资人,而非单纯的财务投资人。

首先,昆仑芯正处于相对强势位置。

当下,AI芯片供需紧张、国产算力替代加速推进。「昆仑芯这样的头部国产AI芯片公司,都处于产能紧张与需求旺盛并存的状态。某种程度上,‘采购+认购’也是给它的投资人一个好处。」上述投资人表示。

《降噪NoNoise》此前在《中国英伟达不好当》中提到,华为昇腾910等国产芯片一度处于缺货状态。寒武纪今年一季度的合同负债从2025年末的100万元大幅增至3.96亿元,亦反映了需求端的旺盛。

这一趋势也反映到昆仑芯的业绩中。据各投行研报测算,2024年昆仑芯营收约20亿元,净亏损约2亿元;2025年营收预计增长至35亿元,并有望实现盈亏平衡;2026年营收或达到66亿元。

IDC数据显示,2025年中国云端AI加速器市场中,昆仑芯出货量达11.6万张,与寒武纪并列国产厂商第三位,在国产AI芯片出货量中仅次于华为昇腾和阿里平头哥。

就业绩稳定性来看,寒武纪大客户字节跳动正在搞自研芯片,不排除在未来某一节点对寒武纪的出货量带来一些波动;平头哥AI芯片主要通过阿里云间接服务外部;昆仑芯若能通过IPO绑定更多外部订单,未来有可能形成更有竞争力的市场排位。

其次,相比资金,昆仑芯更需要外部客户来证明自身的独立性。

昆仑芯的前身是百度智能芯片及架构部,2021年4月完成独立融资并从百度分拆之时,其估值高达130亿元。但作为百度内部孵化出来的AI芯片产品,昆仑芯前期主要依托百度内部场景为其提供订单,这让它在早期能够跳过一部分外部市场验证,更快进入规模化阶段,但同时也导致外界质疑其是否过度依赖百度。

因此,昆仑芯需要证明百度之外的客户有持续采购意愿。

上市是昆仑芯淡化百度标签的一步,而「采购+认购」则是在上市过程中强化外部客户叙事的一步。

从公开信息看,昆仑芯近年已经在加快外部客户拓展。有投行数据显示,2025年昆仑芯约四成收入来自外部客户。2025年11月,百度智能云事业群总裁沈抖曾对外披露,昆仑芯已有包括招商银行、南方电网、吉利汽车、vivo以及一家互联网大厂和一家超头部运营商等上百家客户,交付规模从几十卡到万卡以上。

那家互联网大厂后来被印证是腾讯,头部运营商是中国移动。腾讯的开放心态与自身AI布局的迟滞互为因果,运营商对国产算力则是刚需。

值得注意的是,2025年中国移动向百度昆仑芯采购超10亿元的推理芯片订单;同年7月,昆仑芯的D轮投资人阵容中,出现了中移和创(中国移动旗下)的身影。这说明,昆仑芯之前已经测试过「采购+认购」的可行性。

对于这些客户来说,参与昆仑芯认购也是一次围绕国产算力供应链的产业布局。

更进一步看,「采购+认购」还可能形成一种双向互利。如果昆仑芯上市后表现较好,产业投资人有机会在资本市场获得财务回报;与此同时,这些产业方通过采购芯片将算力需求导入昆仑芯的收入体系,新的订单提高外界对公司收入增长的预期,收入预期进一步增强二级市场对估值的信心,构成了「认购股份—采购订单—营收提升—估值上涨」的正向循环。

放到更大的视野来看,过去两年,AI产业越来越多的交易都带有「循环投资」的意味:芯片公司投资客户,客户反过来采购芯片;云厂商绑定大模型公司,大模型公司再购买云算力。资本、订单和产能被放进同一个增长飞轮里。

例如英伟达与OpenAI、微软等公司之间的投资、算力采购、芯片供应和云服务订单彼此交织,形成了一张围绕AI算力的利益网络。AMD也与OpenAI、Meta等公司达成硬件销售与股权配置挂钩的协议。SpaceX在IPO前,也曾被爆出要求承销银行或特定投资人购买其Grok AI模型的企业服务。

这些协议通过订单把上下游绑定在一起,让整个生态共同放大需求、收入和估值。

国内AI产业虽尚未出现这种落于纸面的绑定,但结盟趋势已经显现。比如商汤孵化的「曦望」,背后投资机构有三一集团旗下华胥基金、第四范式、美的控股等;摩尔线程的产业投资人中有腾讯、字节、联想创投、小马智行等。

从行业趋势来看,昆仑芯将「资本+订单」的关系绑定在IPO阶段的做法,有可能会对后续准备上市的中国AI芯片公司产生示范效应。

对于昆仑芯片自身而言,短期看,上市前后的订单释放、交付周期和收入确认,会继续支撑昆仑芯的估值想象空间。

但长期还是要回归到产品本身。「后续还要看昆仑芯在应用场景的表现,不同场景、不同模型下的表现,各家都有区别,而外界也很难仅通过公开参数完整判断昆仑芯的真实能力。」前述芯片投资人表示。

另一个隐含风险来自市场本身。AI芯片上下游的利益捆绑,在加速AI产业正向循环的同时,也在放大风险。当链条上的任意一环出现问题,便会牵一发而动全身。该投资人谨慎提醒,美国已经不少投资人警告AI泡沫顶点的来临,「国内AI市场泡沫肯定是在的,至于什么时候破,估计还需要点时间。」

无论未来如何,昆仑芯在这个节点IPO,对百度来说是个提振人心的好消息。

昆仑芯分拆时,百度持股57%。若市场传出的500亿美元的目标估值最终兑现、采购订单也能提前锁定,百度自身估值也将迎来新叙事。

当前的百度,正处于从流量分发公司转向AI基础设施平台的阵痛期。之前搜索业务一直是百度的估值中枢,但在随后的商业模式转型中,百度的AI业务尚未撑起高估值——自研大模型、AI应用等未能保住先发优势,智能云进入快速增长空间但增速不足以让资本市场兴奋,Robotaxi方向的萝卜快跑距离盈利尚远且受政策影响较大,相较之下,低调的昆仑芯反而先一步接近逆袭,这让百度喊了很多年的「芯-云-模-体」终于有了新的底气。

从这个层面来看,「带货式IPO」既是昆仑芯对自身成长空间的提前锁定,也是百度「挺直腰杆」的刚性需求。

注:文/刘诗雨,文章来源:降噪NoNoise,本文为作者独立观点,不代表亿邦动力立场。

文章来源:降噪NoNoise

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FAQ回顾

AI芯片行业的带货式IPO是什么模式?

指AI芯片企业在IPO阶段将股权认购与芯片采购意向绑定的上市模式,昆仑芯拟赴港IPO时推出该模式,要求潜在投资者意向采购3至7倍认购额价值的芯片,用于筛选有持续采购需求的产业投资人,而非单纯财务投资人。

昆仑芯为什么要推行带货式IPO?

一是当前国产AI芯片供需紧张,昆仑芯处于产能紧需求旺的强势地位,该模式可筛选优质产业客户;二是可绑定更多外部订单,证明自身业务独立性,摆脱对母公司百度的订单依赖;三是可形成认购、采购、营收、估值上涨的正向循环,支撑上市估值。

当前国产云端AI芯片市场的竞争格局是怎样的?

IDC数据显示2025年中国云端AI加速器市场中,华为昇腾、阿里平头哥出货量位列国产厂商前两位,昆仑芯与寒武纪并列第三位;2025年昆仑芯约四成收入来自外部客户,客户包括招商银行、南方电网、腾讯、中国移动等上百家企业。

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