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桃李做快餐、鲍师傅卖西餐 倒闭9万家后 面包房的尽头是饭店?

云泽 2026-06-30 14:42
云泽 2026/06/30 14:42

邦小白快读

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当前国内烘焙行业正经历大规模关店潮,多数存活品牌选择“烘焙+餐饮”的餐厅化模式转型自救,核心干货信息如下:

1. 行业现状:近一年烘焙行业净关店8.8万家,整体闭店率高达25%,不仅大量中小品牌关门,连深耕数十年的老牌烘焙克莉丝汀、面包新语等也没能躲过,克莉丝汀已经破产清算,面包新语也逐步退出国内核心市场。

2. 行业新变化:包括鲍师傅、桃李、泸溪河、好利来在内的大小品牌都在试水烘焙加西餐、快餐、茶饮、简餐的复合业态,韩国老牌烘焙圣心堂转型后四年销售额增长近4倍,验证了该模式的可行性。

3. 消费体验变化:未来烘焙门店会越来越多兼具堂食休闲、全时段用餐功能,普通消费者可以在烘焙店获得更丰富的消费场景,除了购买糕点还能解决正餐用餐需求。

当前国内烘焙行业增长见顶,洗牌速度大幅加快,品牌可参考的干货信息如下:

1. 行业与消费趋势:现在消费者对预包装烘焙产品的需求不断下降,商超、新茶饮、即时零售等跨界玩家凭借成本优势抢占市场,行业平均净利率已经降至8.2%,行业现在半年就会完成一次新旧更替,缺乏创新的品牌很快会被淘汰。

2. 可行突围方向:“烘焙+餐饮”复合业态是经过验证的突围方向,该模式可以重构门店时段价值提升坪效,拓宽客群覆盖对冲单一品类风险,头部品牌依托原有供应链、运营体系,可以轻量投入获得增量,韩国圣心堂的转型成果可作为参考案例。

3. 需要警惕的风险:转型需要破解消费者对品牌的固有刻板印象,还要提升复合业态的管理能力,控制多业态扩张带来的成本上涨,同时要破解行业产品高价抑制消费频次的问题。

当前烘焙赛道进入深度洗牌阶段,卖家可获得的机会、风险和可参考经验干货如下:

1. 行业现状:传统单一烘焙零售模式已经增长见顶,近一年行业净关店8.8万家,整体闭店率高达25%,跨界竞争者带来的价格冲击明显,超六成中小烘焙店净利率不足5%,生存压力极大,原有模式难以为继。

2. 可把握的机会方向:烘焙餐厅化转型是当前可落地的突围方向,通过引入全时段餐食、堂食场景,能够有效提升门店坪效与客单价,拓宽客群覆盖,降低依赖单一大单品带来的经营风险,头部品牌已经有多个成功试水案例,可参考其复合业态布局模式逐步试错。

3. 需要注意的风险提示:转型需要破解消费者对品牌的固有刻板印象,还要解决自身管理能力不匹配、多业态扩张带来的成本上涨问题,如果转型不成功新业务反而会拖累原有业务,需要小范围测试验证后再逐步铺开,不能盲目扩张。

烘焙行业整体转型趋势给烘焙生产工厂带来了新的需求与商业机会,干货内容总结如下:

1. 产品生产和设计需求变化:烘焙品牌从单一零售烘焙转向多品类复合业态,需要大量适配堂食场景的现制餐食产品,包括中式快餐、西餐简餐、茶饮品等,品牌对多品类烘焙原料、餐食半成品的需求会大幅提升,要求工厂能够适配多品类的生产需求。

2. 可挖掘的商业机会:头部品牌转型会释放更多供应链合作需求,工厂可依托现有产能,拓展烘焙相关餐食半成品生产线,对接转型中的烘焙品牌,还可消化行业存量闲置产能,目前头部品牌桃李就有近三分之一产能处于闲置状态,上下游工厂可挖掘对应的合作空间。

3. 转型启示:烘焙行业的消费端变化倒逼上游生产端调整,工厂需要提升柔性生产能力,适配多品类、小批量的现制产品生产需求,才能跟上品牌转型的步伐,获得新的增长空间,推进自身业务的稳定增长。

当前烘焙行业正处于整体转型期,给各类行业服务商带来了新的市场机会,相关干货内容如下:

1. 行业发展趋势:传统单一烘焙零售模式已经走到尽头,无论是头部老牌烘焙还是网红新兴品牌,目前普遍开启“烘焙+餐饮”复合业态转型,全行业都在求变求存,转型相关的专业服务需求非常旺盛。

2. 客户核心痛点:目前烘焙品牌转型主要面临三大核心痛点:一是难以改变消费者对品牌的固有刻板印象,需要专业的市场教育和品牌定位升级服务;二是原有单一品类的运营管理能力不匹配复合业态需求,在人才储备、后厨管理、品控管控上存在明显短板;三是多业态扩张会拉高租金、人力成本,需要专业的成本管控优化方案。

3. 市场机会:服务商可针对上述痛点,推出品牌定位升级、复合业态运营培训、成本管控咨询等对应解决方案,即可抢占烘焙行业转型带来的服务市场增量,获得新的业务增长。

烘焙行业大规模转型给平台商带来了新的招商和运营机会,相关干货内容总结如下:

1. 商家核心需求:传统烘焙品牌转型复合业态,需要更适合大店多场景的门店流量运营支持、上下游供应链对接服务,以及多品类运营的相关管理工具支持,中小烘焙商家转型也需要成本管控、运营培训相关的配套服务,这些都是平台可以提供的价值。

2. 平台可布局的方向:目前美团等即时零售平台已经开始布局线下烘焙实体店,跨界抢占烘焙市场,其他平台可抓住烘焙商家转型的需求,推出针对烘焙复合业态的招商扶持政策,吸引转型品牌入驻,进一步拓展平台的品类边界,丰富平台供给。

3. 需要规避的风险:当前烘焙行业整体关店率高达25%,超过六成中小烘焙店净利率不足5%,经营稳定性较差,平台招商需要严格筛选商家资质,重点关注转型商家的经营稳定性,规避大量商家闭店给平台带来的运营风险和口碑风险。

当前国内烘焙行业出现了全新的转型动向,有很多值得研究的新内容,干货总结如下:

1. 产业新动向:国内烘焙行业经历了前几年新生代品牌盲目拓店的泡沫期后,目前进入深度洗牌阶段,数据显示近一年净关店8.8万家,整体闭店率达到25%,存活的头部品牌集体开启“烘焙+餐饮”的餐厅化转型,探索全新的盈利模型,这是烘焙行业发展的全新方向。

2. 新出现的产业问题:转型过程中暴露了大量待研究的行业问题,包括传统品牌固有认知破圈难、单一品类运营能力不匹配复合业态要求、多业态扩张推高经营成本、行业整体产品价格上涨抑制消费需求等,这些问题都值得深入研究,总结行业发展规律。

3. 值得跟踪的商业模式创新:“烘焙+全时段餐饮”的复合商业模式,打破了传统烘焙店“零售货架”的定位,重构了门店坪效和抗风险能力,韩国圣心堂的成功案例已经验证了该模式的可行性,该商业模式的本土化落地效果和长期发展潜力,值得长期跟踪研究。

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Quick Summary

China’s domestic baking industry is currently experiencing a large wave of store closures. Most surviving brands are pursuing a self-rescue transformation through the "baking + food service" restaurant-style model. Key takeaways are as follows:

1. Industry status: Over the past year, the industry has seen a net closure of 88,000 stores, bringing the overall closure rate to 25%. Closures have hit not only a huge number of small and mid-sized brands, but also long-standing industry veterans such as Christine and BreadTalk. Christine has already entered bankruptcy liquidation, while BreadTalk is gradually exiting China’s core markets.

2. New industry trends: Major and minor brands including Bao Master, Toly Bread, Luxihe, and Holiland are all testing the waters of hybrid formats that combine baking with Western food, fast food, bubble tea, and casual dining. South Korean baking icon Sung Sim Dang saw its sales grow nearly fourfold in the four years after its transformation, proving this model is viable.

3. Shifts in consumer experience: In the future, baking stores will increasingly offer in-store leisure seating and all-day dining options. General consumers will gain access to richer consumption scenarios: in addition to buying pastries, they will also be able to satisfy full-meal needs at these locations.

Growth in China’s domestic baking industry has plateaued, and industry consolidation has accelerated sharply. Key insights for brands are as follows:

1. Industry and consumer trends: Consumer demand for pre-packaged baked goods is steadily declining. Cross-industry entrants including supermarkets, new tea beverage brands and instant retail platforms are capturing market share via cost advantages. The industry’s average net profit margin has fallen to 8.2%, and the turnover of leading players now occurs every six months—brands lacking innovation are淘汰ed very quickly.

2. A proven path out of stagnation: The "baking + food service" hybrid format is a validated breakout strategy. This model restructures the time-based value of store space to boost sales per square meter, expands customer reach, and hedges risks from overreliance on a single product category. Leading brands can leverage their existing supply chains and operational systems to capture incremental growth with low upfront investment, and the transformation success of South Korea’s Sung Sim Dang serves as a reference case.

3. Risks to watch out for: Transformation requires breaking consumers’ existing fixed impressions of a brand, upgrading management capabilities for the hybrid format, and controlling cost increases tied to multi-format expansion. It also needs to address the industry-wide issue where high product prices suppress purchase frequency.

China’s baking sector is now in a period of deep consolidation. Below are key insights on opportunities, risks, and actionable lessons for sellers:

1. Industry status: Growth of the traditional single-category baking retail model has stalled. Over the past year, the industry has recorded a net 88,000 store closures, for an overall closure rate of 25%. Price pressure from cross-industry competitors is severe, more than 60% of small and mid-sized baking stores have net profit margins below 5%, and survival pressure is extreme. The traditional model is no longer viable.

2. Attractive opportunity areas: The shift to restaurant-format baking is a implementable breakout strategy today. By adding all-day menu options and in-store dining space, sellers can effectively boost per-store sales productivity and average order value, expand their customer base, and reduce operational risks from overreliance on a single hit product. Multiple leading brands have already successfully tested this model, so sellers can reference their hybrid format layouts and iterate through small-scale testing.

3. Risk warnings for transformation: Transformation requires breaking consumers’ existing fixed impressions of the brand. It also requires solving mismatches between existing management capabilities and new requirements, as well as cost inflation from multi-format expansion. New unproven business lines can drag down existing core operations if transformation fails, so brands should validate the model in small-scale tests before rolling out broadly, and avoid blind expansion.

The ongoing industry-wide transformation of the baking sector has created new demand and business opportunities for upstream baking manufacturers. Key insights are summarized below:

1. Shifts in product development and manufacturing demand: As baking brands shift from single-category retail to multi-category hybrid formats, they need a large volume of freshly prepared menu items adapted for in-store dining, including Chinese fast food, Western casual meals, and tea beverages. Demand for multi-category baking ingredients and pre-prepared meal semi-finished products will rise sharply, requiring factories to adapt to multi-category production needs.

2. Untapped business opportunities: The transformation of leading brands will unlock greater demand for supply chain partnerships. Factories can leverage existing production capacity to add production lines for baking-related food semi-finished products, partner with transforming baking brands, and absorb idle industry capacity. Currently, nearly one-third of leading brand Toly Bread’s production capacity is idle, creating collaboration opportunities for upstream and downstream factories.

3. Key takeaways for transformation: Consumer-side changes in the baking industry are forcing adjustments in upstream production. To keep pace with brand transformation, unlock new growth avenues, and drive steady business expansion, factories need to improve flexible manufacturing capabilities to meet the demand for multi-category, small-batch freshly prepared products.

China’s baking industry is currently in a period of industry-wide transformation, which has created new market opportunities for all types of industry service providers. Key insights are as follows:

1. Industry development trends: The traditional single-category baking retail model has reached its end. Today, nearly all players—from long-established leading brands to viral new entrants—are pursuing transformation to "baking + food service" hybrid formats to survive and grow. Demand for professional transformation-related services is extremely strong.

2. Core pain points for clients: Baking brands currently face three core pain points in transformation: First, they struggle to change consumers’ fixed perceptions of their brand, requiring professional consumer education and brand repositioning services. Second, their existing operational capabilities built for single categories do not match the needs of hybrid formats, leaving clear gaps in talent recruitment, back-of-house management, and quality control. Third, multi-format expansion pushes up rent and labor costs, requiring professional solutions to optimize cost control.

3. Market opportunities: Service providers that develop targeted solutions to these pain points—such as brand positioning upgrades, hybrid format operations training, and cost control consulting—can capture the service market growth driven by baking industry transformation and achieve new business growth.

The large-scale transformation of China’s baking industry has created new investment and operation opportunities for platform operators. Key insights are summarized below:

1. Core merchant demand: Traditional baking brands transforming to hybrid formats need support for multi-scenario large-store traffic operations, upstream and downstream supply chain matching services, and management tools for multi-category operations. Small and mid-sized baking brands also need supporting services for cost control and operations training. All of these are value that platforms can provide.

2. Strategic directions for platforms: Instant retail platforms such as Meituan have already entered offline baking stores to capture cross-industry market share. Other platforms can capitalize on the demand of transforming baking brands by launching recruitment and support policies tailored for baking hybrid formats, attract transforming brands to join their platforms, expand their category boundaries, and enrich their product offerings.

3. Risks to avoid: The current overall industry store closure rate stands at 25%, and more than 60% of small and mid-sized baking stores have net profit margins below 5%, meaning business stability is generally low. Platforms need to strictly screen merchant qualifications during recruitment, prioritize the operational stability of transforming merchants, and avoid operational and reputational risks stemming from widespread store closures.

China’s domestic baking industry is seeing entirely new transformation trends that offer many novel areas for research. Key insights are summarized below:

1. New industry developments: After the bubble period of recent years when new-generation brands pursued reckless expansion, the industry has entered a phase of deep consolidation. Data shows the industry recorded a net 88,000 store closures over the past year, pushing the overall closure rate to 25%. Surviving leading brands have collectively embarked on a restaurant-style "baking + food service" transformation to explore entirely new profit models, marking a brand new direction for the industry’s growth.

2. New open industry research questions: The transformation has exposed numerous under-explored industry problems, including the difficulty traditional brands face in overcoming entrenched consumer perceptions, the mismatch between single-category operational capabilities and multi-format requirements, rising operating costs driven by multi-format expansion, and how industry-wide price increases suppress consumer demand. All of these issues deserve in-depth research to derive generalizable patterns of industry development.

3. A business model innovation worthy of long-term tracking: The hybrid "baking + all-day dining" model breaks the traditional "retail shelf" positioning of baking stores, and reconstructs store-level sales productivity and risk resilience. The successful turnaround of South Korea’s Sung Sim Dang has already validated the model’s feasibility, making its localized implementation in China and long-term development potential topics worthy of continuous research.

Disclaimer: The "Quick Summary" content is entirely generated by AI. Please exercise discretion when interpreting the information. For issues or corrections, please email run@ebrun.com .

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烘焙品牌扎堆开饭店,是绝处逢生的出路,还是病急乱投医的险棋?

作者 | 云泽

编辑 | 杜仲

来源 | 观潮新消费(ID:TideSight)

这两年,烘焙赛道迎来了地狱模式。

窄门餐眼数据显示,截至2026年5月,近一年烘焙行业净关店8.8万家,新增门店仅4385家,闭店总数超过9.2万家、行业闭店率高达25%。更令市场不安的是,连深耕数十年的老牌烘焙也没能躲过这场倒闭潮。

曾被誉为“中国烘焙第一股”的克莉丝汀,巅峰时在长三角坐拥千家门店、市值超20亿港元,是不少70后、80后的集体记忆,2021年开始急转直下,四年累计关店超600家,2024年底正式退市,2025年4月被裁定破产清算。

外资标杆面包新语,2003年入华后一度开出超400家门店,2021年-2024年净减少179家,2025年成都门店全部歇业,同年撤离北京市场。

进入2026年,关店潮仍在蔓延:3月,南通烘焙品牌乐焙滋老板跑路,会员连余额都无法查看;4月,曾获千万融资的热氣饼店大面积倒闭,有加盟商三店全关、亏损160万;5月,东莞顶东面包花园大规模闭店、无锡多乐之日一夜之间4家歇业,天津法颂烘焙也贴出闭店通知。

这些品牌无一不是烘焙品类中响当当的资深玩家,或是在区域深耕多年的霸主,却也没能熬过行业寒冬。

而那些活下来的品牌,正在加速寻找生路,“餐厅化”成了它们共同的答案。

烘焙玩家向“正餐”要增量

过去,面包店扮演着“零售货架”的角色,赚钱眼光锁定在一袋吐司或一块蛋糕上,交易在几分钟内迅速完成。

如今,一些烘焙品牌主动打破这个天花板,集体抛弃“货柜陈列、快速成交”的单一模式,闯入餐饮腹地,试图用现制餐食和堂食体验重构门店的盈利模型。

率先迈出这一步的,是一批明星烘焙品牌。

2026年1月,鲍师傅官宣将在四川宜宾开出千平双层超集店,这家店融合了烘焙、西餐与社交场景:“一层保留明档后厨,主营糕点和咖啡;二层设立西餐区,主售披萨、意面、牛排等菜品,门店设计引入流行的精致板前模式,吸引年轻客群的意图明显”。此前,鲍师傅已在武汉试水“鲍咖啡”,此次大店是其品类边界的又一次延伸。

一个月后,泸溪河也在南京落地首家双层集合店:一楼卖中西式糕点,新增“泸家水铺”做茶饮生意,二楼专门设立堂食休憩区,配有桌椅、沙发和绿植供顾客打卡休息,整体布局像极了茶餐厅。

更早之前,好利来为推进品牌年轻化和多元化,孵化高端法餐品牌“黑天鹅”和茶饮线“好茶”;BAKER&SPICE则以“烘焙+风味轻食+茶咖”的模式盘活门店。

亲眼见到这些网红品牌凭借“烘焙+餐食”蹚出新路,传统烘焙巨头们坐不住了。

今年4月份,面包大王桃李在沈阳创办第一家现烤奥莱店,店内按品类分区运营:烘焙区做老本行,味无敌档口供应小菜、米饭、饺子等中式快餐,热虎区做披萨、汉堡等西餐,茶咖区卖奶茶、咖啡,文创市集提供面包玩偶、抱枕等周边,把面包店开成了餐饮乐园。

百年义利则以“義利Bread”扎根社区,产品从传统的预包装面包拓展为现烤面包、咖啡饮品、熟食等全品类集合,实现“烘焙+咖啡+熟食”的复合业态。

在北京本土市场,不少老品牌也积极求变。曾被戏称“稻香村青春版”的味多美,在北京陆续落地多家概念店,做起中式早餐、下午茶和商务简餐;全球门店超4000家的巴黎贝甜,首家创新实验店亮相北京东方新天地,推出“现点现做”的午晚餐简餐,门店场景延伸至全时段。

从明星品牌到传统老店,两股突围力量已然成形,在一个“快”行业里耐心地做起了“慢”功夫。

那么问题来了:烘焙玩家向正餐要增量,这条路是否可行?早有品牌给出了答案。

创立于1956的韩国烘焙品牌圣心堂,近年凭借“烘焙+热食”再度翻红,稳居韩国国民级品牌之列。

这家老店最初靠红豆包品类打响知名度,扩张到一定规模后,受困于传统烘焙的单一模式与日益激烈的外部竞争,业绩迟迟无法突破,于是主动开启主食化转型,将西式面包与中式炒菜、韩餐结合,打破“烘焙只能当零食”的认知,把面包店打造成碳水食堂。

不仅产品向餐饮靠拢,门店设计亦是如此。圣心堂将热食明档设在收银台的必经之路上,锅气与麦香的混合产生化学反应,既延长了顾客的停留时间,也提高了消费频次。很多人原本只想买个面包,离店时却顺手带上一份烩饭。

热食化之后,圣心堂的业绩迎来爆发式增长:2020年至2024年,其销售额增长近4倍,从488亿韩元(约2.56亿人民币)跃升至1937亿韩元(约10.17亿人民币)。

圣心堂的案例充分说明,烘焙餐饮化不仅走得通,还可能走出一条高增长的新路子。

当下国内烘焙赛道同样到了卷无可卷、规模效应几近失灵的生死关头,前些年,虎头局、墨茉点心局等新生代品牌,误以为体量是发展的第一要义,盲目拉投资、疯狂拓店,最终被巨大的运营成本拖垮,一个破产清算提前退场、一个闭店苟活。

鲍师傅的创始人鲍才胜曾预言:“从前行业5至6年完成一次洗牌,如今半年就可能迎来新旧更替,缺乏创新的品牌终将被市场淘汰”。

为了不被踢出局,有成功案例的餐厅化方向,成了国内烘焙品牌目前能抓住的唯一救命稻草。

餐厅化,成了生存的一环

仍在牌桌上的烘焙品牌主动把自己变成饭店,绝大多数都是在“自救”。

桃李就是一个典型。作为传统面包巨头,它的多个零售渠道接连失灵:“小型超市的面包购买频次低、大型超市有自己的现烤烘焙区、便利店的早餐生意被饭团、热狗、三明治等即食产品承包”。货架上的预包装面包,吸引力已大不如前。

几块钱的预包装面包作用是“充饥”,而填饱肚子这件事在今天有无数替代方案,从这个角度出发,街边的早餐店都能成为桃李的对手。

消费者的心智改变后,桃李的业绩一直在“退步”。2025年,品牌全年营收54.48亿元,同比下滑10.5%;归母净利润2.84亿元,较上一年暴跌45.63%,这已经是净利润连续下滑的第五个年头。进入2026年一季度,颓势仍未扭转。

更棘手的是产能问题。截至2025年底,桃李总产能有45.8万吨,实际出货率只有三分之二,停着的生产设备还要计提折旧,2025年仅折旧摊销费用就高达3.17亿元,正不断吞噬着品牌利润,继续守着那一亩三分地只会败得更快。

其他品牌也各有各的难处。鲍师傅深陷产品创新焦虑,自2017年肉松小贝爆火后再也没能推出现象级爆款,产品门槛低导致山寨货层出不穷,在江苏市场已关闭了三成门店。

作为外来者的巴黎贝甜仍在本土化阶段苦苦挣扎,近年推出的产品均未激起水花,关店步伐也从未停歇,2021年至2025年累计闭店数量超200家。

对于鲍师傅们来说,若有一个门店成功跑通“烘焙+餐厅”模式,便可复制到其他门店,以此稳住整个品牌的体量。

除了自身经营瓶颈,当前烘焙赛道不仅要应对同行的突袭,还得硬抗跨界选手的猛烈攻势。

烘焙品牌的第一个强敌是大型商超。山姆的瑞士卷一年卖10个亿;盒马的麻薯、盒子蛋糕等单品年销售额破亿,烘焙年销规模与好利来相当;永辉完成全国300多家门店的调改后,首个消费旺季烘焙品类同比增长220%;沃尔玛升级了自有品牌“沃集鲜”,扩充瑞士卷、麻薯等品类,尝试复刻山姆、盒马的成功。

商超能跨界抢生意且混得风生水起,核心在于成本优势。它们借助自有场地共享摊薄租金与人工,再加上冷冻烘焙半成品的规模化采购,大大降低了原材料成本,多数产品定价仅为面包店的50%-70%,鲍师傅、巴黎贝甜等在价格上很难拼得过。

第二个强有力的对手是新茶饮和咖啡品牌。星巴克中国得益于烘焙食品的突出表现,交易量和客单价分别增长5%和2%,近一年开始将烘焙品类纳入早餐场景;瑞幸在增收不增利的压力下推出烘焙轻食;奈雪的茶、喜茶加速布局“茶饮+烘焙”的复合店,古茗、霸王茶姬重点押注贝果类产品。

即时零售也是个不容忽视的劲敌。美团旗下的小象超市中,烘焙熟食加工、生鲜和食品陈列面积占比高达98%。今年年初,美团还在北京开出两家“小象烘焙”实体店。

多方入侵下,烘焙行业进入深度洗牌阶段,倒逼头部品牌不得不突围。而面包店把自己改造成餐厅,也是看中了扩充经营生态链带来的好处。

其一,重构时段价值,提升门店坪效。传统烘焙店客流集中在早晚两个时段,其余时间几乎是空店状态,引入熟食、主食、茶饮等堂食场景,能延长消费者的停留时间,有助于提高门店坪效和客单价。

其二,拓宽客群和用餐场景,对冲单一品类风险。烘焙赛道往往高度依赖一两款明星单品,一旦产品热度消退,目标用户也会跟着流失,向正餐靠拢,能吸引更多上班族、情侣和家庭等客群,全场景覆盖比依赖大单品更稳定,抗风险能力也更强。

其三,以轻量投入换取跨界增量。头部资源禀赋很强,做餐饮有天生的优势。比如桃李有覆盖全国的冷链物流和原材料采购体系,奶油、面粉、水果的采购体量大,议价能力比普通面包房更强,能更好地控制成本;鲍师傅的直营管控体系和明档厨房模式,都能直接复用到意面、披萨等西餐品类,无需从零做起。

烘焙品牌餐厅化带来的效益不容小觑,但转型过程中,面临的经营难题同样不少。

餐厅化的代价:管理难度翻倍

烘焙行业主食化,每个品牌都有自己的难处。

首先是品牌的固有印象难消除。专做肉松小贝和中式糕点的鲍师傅,很难让用户相信也能做好西餐;同理,擅长做短保面包的桃李,能否兼顾好现烤烘焙和中餐主食也是个未知数。

想改变终端对品牌的刻板印象,就需要大量的市场教育和时间沉淀,期间免不了要砸钱宣传。

其次是管理难度的提升。如果说品牌认知是第一道坎,那么从单品向复合业态的管理跃迁,则是更危险的深水区,烘焙品牌素来擅长单一SKU的极致效率,突然转向面包、披萨、咖啡、牛排等复合运营模式,对人才储备、后厨管理和品控标准都有更高要求。

聚焦到具体品牌,桃李面包是零售端的成熟玩家,可在餐饮经营上几乎是小白,短期内恐怕难以适应;泸溪河虽然通过开设集合店补充场景,但复杂业态对管理能力要求较高,此前便因快速扩张出现大量品控漏洞被投诉,管理短板暴露无遗,此番试水餐饮,能否稳住尚且不知。

最后是成本与盈利的不确定性。烘焙店的盈利能力并不算强。据华安证券测算,以高线城市100平米标准烘焙店为例,运营良好时月流水25-30万元,原料成本占32%-38%,租金和人力成本合计占35%-45%,剔除固定成本后利润率普遍在20%-30%,但扣除营运杂费、宣传推广、试吃及损耗等费用,利润率直接降至10%以下。

弗若斯特沙利文披露,2025年国内烘焙行业平均净利率仅为8.2%,较2022年的11.6%下降3.4个百分点,超六成的中小烘焙店净利率不足5%。

如果进行多业态扩张,门店租金、设备和人力等经营成本都会拉高,一旦转型失败,新业务极可能成为拖累。

即便品牌扛住管理与成本压力推进主食化转型,最终能否跑通,还得看消费者是否愿意花钱买账。

这些年来,无论是连锁餐馆还是夫妻店,在餐饮市场整体竞争加剧的情况下,降价几乎是共识。但烘焙赛道的走向却愈发诡异:“品牌在关店、收入在减少,面包、甜品的价格却始终居高不下”。

公开资料显示,2022年-2025年,国内烘焙产品均价从12.8元提升至17.3元,三年涨幅达到35.1%,部分一线城市高端烘焙客单价已突破45元,较2020年提升了62%。

社交媒体上关于“面包越来越贵”的帖子逐渐泛滥,来自北京、上海的网友反馈,一个普通面包售价动辄几十元,10元以下的面包几乎难觅踪迹,28元的可颂、30元的贝果、49元的恰巴塔乃至128元的吐司,定价仿佛没有上限。

烘焙产品的高价心智已在终端市场固化,持续压制大众消费频次与复购意愿,消费者对面包定价偏高的感知,最终会传导至烘焙品牌推出的其他产品上。

在此背景下,后续桃李、鲍师傅等头部研究出一套有效的正餐方法论,想成功商业化并大规模推行,既要适应经营结构上的改变、抵御餐厅正规军的冲击,还得克服市场高消费带来的后遗症。

只不过,现阶段传统烘焙行业增长见顶,向正餐转型虽难,却也是桃李、鲍师傅等巨头为数不多有盼头的路了。

注:文/云泽,文章来源:观潮新消费(公众号ID:TideSight),本文为作者独立观点,不代表亿邦动力立场。

文章来源:观潮新消费

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