广告
加载中

对话英诺周全:科技投资 现在是最好的时代

定焦One团队 2026-06-12 13:39
定焦One团队 2026/06/12 13:39

邦小白快读

EN
全文速览

本文是对英诺基金管理合伙人周全的深度访谈,梳理了当前全球科技投资的整体趋势和核心观点,干货内容总结如下:

整体来看,周全判断当下是中美科技并跑的最好时代,AI不是普通浪潮而是海啸,不抓住AI就像20年前不买房,会被时代远远抛下,当前科技领域呈现科技向上、传统向下的K型分化,整个资本市场的科技资产定价体系已经被整体重写。

1. 方向层面,当前值得关注的核心赛道包括半导体国产替代下半场、AI基础设施、具身智能的世界模型、量子计算、太空算力、脑机接口等十五五规划明确的前沿方向,底层基础大模型已经过了最佳投资窗口,普通参与者建议避开。

2. 认知层面,投科技核心是投人,尤其是年轻创业者,优秀年轻人有九条命,更容易在新赛道跑出来,做科技领域的创业要认准方向长期坚持,做到极致,不要受外界干扰。

本文梳理了当前科技领域的发展趋势和资本市场变化,对科技类品牌商的战略布局有诸多参考干货,总结如下:

整体来看,当前全球科技已经进入中美并跑的新时代,市场呈现明显的K型分化,科技领域资产估值整体抬升,传统领域持续下行,AI正在重构全产业链,品牌商必须all in AI才能跟上时代趋势,不被淘汰。

1. 产品研发方向:可以重点布局半导体先进封装、AI基础设施、具身智能的世界模型、太空算力、MLCC等AI带动需求爆发的细分赛道,这些赛道中美处于同一起跑线,国内品牌拥有供应链等优势,增长空间充足。

2. 企业发展经验:打造硬科技品牌要学习优秀创业者“人狠话不多、认准方向长期坚持”的风格,企业早期发展阶段可以对接专业投资机构,获取资金、产业资源和资本支持,助力品牌快速成长,同时要避开过度拥挤的热门概念,提前布局共识形成前的新机会。

本文带来了当前科技领域的最新发展动向和投资风向,给科技领域相关卖家整理出如下干货,包括机会提示、风险提示和实操参考:

整体来看,当前科技领域正处于中美并跑的超级周期,诞生了大量全新增长机会,同时热门赛道也存在拥挤和泡沫风险,卖家需要结合自身能力找准定位。

1. 政策与机会:十五五规划明确的具身智能、量子计算、太空算力、脑机接口等方向是官方认可的增长风口,当前已经获得国家创业投资引导基金的支持,政策红利明确;AI带动全产业链需求爆发,MLCC、玻璃基板先进封装、AI世界模型等细分赛道需求暴涨,这些新赛道中美站在同一起跑线,国内卖家有明显优势。

2. 风险提示:当前热门赛道极度拥挤,已经形成“共识灾难”,优质项目少,估值普遍偏高,卖家不要盲目追热点,要找准差异化定位,聚焦核心能力长期发展,同时可以对接头部投资机构获取资金和产业资源,解决发展中的资金和资源问题。

本文梳理了当前科技领域的产业需求变化,给科技相关实体工厂整理出了干货内容,包括需求变化、商业机会和发展启示,总结如下:

整体来看,AI浪潮带动了全产业链上游需求的爆发,给国内工厂带来了很多全新的增长机会,当前全球科技进入中美并跑新阶段,国内工厂的供应链优势得到充分发挥。

1. 产品生产与设计需求变化:AI带动上游元器件需求暴涨,MLCC作为工业大米,需求随AI服务器增长快速提升;人形具身智能机器人产业快速发展,相关零部件、本体订单量大幅提升;半导体先进封装需求崛起,三维堆叠异质集成的技术路线已经落地,迎来大规模需求增长。

2. 商业机会与发展启示:玻璃基板、先进封装、量子计算、具身智能等新赛道中美处于同一起跑线,国内工厂拥有供应链成本优势,有很大的成长空间,可以提前布局切入这些新兴赛道;工厂发展要聚焦技术创新,走差异化路线,针对新兴产业需求升级产品技术,还可以对接专业投资机构获取资金和产业资源链接,助力企业做大做强。

本文展现了当前硬科技创业和投资领域的最新变化,给为科技领域服务的相关服务商整理出如下干货,包括行业趋势、客户痛点和机会方向,总结如下:

整体来看,当前硬科技投资和创业进入全新发展阶段,客户需求发生了很大变化,给服务商带来了很多全新的市场机会。

1. 行业发展趋势:当前科技投资已经从过去分散撒网的天使投资模式,转向重投重管的新阶段,投资机构越来越聚焦十五五规划明确的前沿科技赛道,头部机构已经获得国家创业投资引导基金支持,资金规模越来越大,投早投深投科技成为行业共识。

2. 客户核心痛点:一方面,优质硬科技项目早期估值已经大幅提升,很多中小机构没有足够的资金额度参与,优质项目稀缺,赛道拥挤,投资机构非常需要精准的项目对接和产业资源支持;另一方面,硬科技创业者早期需要团队搭建、产业对接、融资对接、资源链接等深度服务,普通的基础服务无法满足需求。

3. 机会方向:服务商可以聚焦AI、半导体、具身智能这些热门前沿赛道,为投资机构和创业者提供深度的产业资源对接、人才匹配、技术咨询等服务,切入蓝海市场。

本文分享了英诺基金在科技投资领域的最新打法和行业观察,对科创投资平台、产业孵化平台等平台商整理出如下干货,总结如下:

整体来看,当前科技创业和投资对平台的需求已经发生变化,平台需要调整运营和招商策略,才能抓住当前的科技红利,同时规避行业存在的泡沫风险。

1. 需求变化:当前科技创业和投资对平台的需求,已经从过去的基础信息对接,转向深度的资源赋能,优质硬科技项目和投资机构都需要产业资源对接、地方政府资源链接、人才匹配等深度服务,提前布局前沿赛道的平台更容易获得优质项目资源。

2. 运营管理可借鉴的经验:可以参考英诺的打法,提前和高校合作开展创业培育,通过实习计划、创业大赛、奖学金等方式提前挖掘优质年轻创业者,积累项目源头;投资孵化采用重投重管模式,深度陪跑创业者,帮项目对接资源渡过难关;内部建立梯度人才队伍,给年轻员工试错和成长的机会,激发团队活力。

3. 风向规避:当前热门前沿赛道过度拥挤,估值普遍偏高,存在一定泡沫,平台布局不要盲目跟风追热点,要提前在共识形成之前布局潜在机会,控制拥挤赛道的投入比例,规避泡沫风险。

本文是对一线资深科技投资人的深度访谈,记录了当前中国科技产业和创投行业的最新变化,对相关研究整理出如下干货:

整体来看,访谈记录了当前全球科技格局和国内创投行业的全新动向,提出了行业存在的新问题,对产业研究和创投研究都有很高的资料价值。

1. 产业新动向:当前全球科技格局已经发生根本性变化,从过去互联网、半导体时代美国遥遥领先中国追赶,转变为AI领域中美并跑的新格局,全球顶尖科技企业几乎都集中在中美,欧洲日本已经被远远甩开;国内资本市场定价体系重写,科技资产估值整体抬升,宏观层面呈现科技向上、传统向下的K型分化。

2. 创投行业新模式:国内早期科技投资的商业模式已经发生变化,从过去分散撒芝麻盐的天使投资模式,转变为重投重管的新模式,聚焦少数优质项目大额度下注,同时深度介入创业项目早期运营,对接资源陪跑成长;投资核心逻辑从投赛道转向投人,尤其偏爱优秀年轻创业者,认为年轻创业者更能在新赛道跑出成果。

3. 行业新问题:当前热门前沿赛道过度拥挤,优质项目稀缺,估值普遍偏高,已经形成“共识灾难”,行业存在一定泡沫,如何在拥挤赛道中筛选优质项目、控制泡沫风险,是整个行业面临的全新问题。

返回默认

声明:快读内容全程由AI生成,请注意甄别信息。如您发现问题,请发送邮件至 run@ebrun.com 。

我是 品牌商 卖家 工厂 服务商 平台商 研究者 帮我再读一遍。

Quick Summary

This article is an in-depth interview with Zhou Quan, Managing Partner of Innoangel Fund, which outlines the core trends and key insights of today's global technology investment. Key takeaways are as follows:

Overall, Zhou Quan believes we are currently in the best era for parallel development of Chinese and U.S. technology. AI is not an ordinary industrial wave but a "tsunami" — failing to embrace AI is comparable to not buying property 20 years ago, and will leave one far behind by the times. The technology sector is now seeing a K-shaped divergence: tech industries grow upward while traditional sectors decline, and the entire pricing system for tech assets in global capital markets has been rewritten.

1. On sector direction: Key frontiers worthy of attention include the second half of domestic semiconductor substitution, AI infrastructure, world models for embodied intelligence, quantum computing, space computing power, and brain-computer interfaces, all of which are prioritized in China's 15th Five-Year Plan. The best investment window for foundational large models has passed, and casual participants are advised to stay away.

2. On investment philosophy: Investing in technology is ultimately investing in people, especially young founders. Outstanding young entrepreneurs are more resilient and more likely to succeed in new sectors. For tech founders, the key is to commit to the right direction long-term, pursue excellence, and avoid distractions from outside noise.

This article outlines current technology industry trends and capital market changes, offering actionable strategic insights for technology-focused brands. Key takeaways are summarized below:

Overall, global technology has entered a new era of parallel development between China and the U.S., with a clear K-shaped market divergence: valuations of tech assets have risen overall, while traditional sectors continue to decline. AI is reshaping the entire industrial chain, and brands must go all-in on AI to keep up with industry trends and avoid being eliminated.

1. Product R&D direction: Brands should prioritize AI-driven high-growth segments including advanced semiconductor packaging, AI infrastructure, world models for embodied intelligence, space computing power, and MLCC. China and the U.S. are starting on a level playing field in these sectors, and domestic brands enjoy advantages such as localized supply chains, leaving enormous room for growth.

2. Corporate development insights: To build a successful hard tech brand, emulate the mindset of outstanding entrepreneurs: stay focused on the right direction and commit long-term. In early growth stages, brands can partner with professional investment institutions to access capital, industrial resources, and capital expertise to accelerate growth. Meanwhile, avoid overcrowded hot concepts, and position early to capture opportunities before broad market consensus forms.

This article covers the latest technology industry developments and investment trends, sorting out key takeaways including opportunity alerts, risk warnings and practical guidance for technology-focused sellers:

Overall, the technology industry is now in a super cycle of parallel China-U.S. development, generating massive new growth opportunities. However, popular sectors also face risks of overcrowding and valuation bubbles, so sellers need to position themselves based on their own capabilities.

1. Policy and opportunities: Sectors including embodied intelligence, quantum computing, space computing power, and brain-computer interfaces are explicitly prioritized in China's 15th Five-Year Plan, and already backed by China's national venture capital guidance fund, with clear policy dividends. AI has driven surging demand across the entire industrial chain, leading to explosive growth in segments including MLCC, glass substrate advanced packaging, and AI world models. China and the U.S. are on equal footing in these new sectors, giving domestic sellers clear competitive advantages.

2. Risk warnings: Popular sectors are currently extremely overcrowded, forming what the industry calls a "consensus disaster" — there are too few high-quality projects, and valuations are generally inflated. Sellers should not blindly chase hot trends; instead, they need to find a differentiated positioning, focus on their core competencies for long-term growth. They can also partner with leading investment institutions to access capital and industrial resources to solve development bottlenecks.

This article sorts out changing industrial demand in the technology sector, compiling key insights including demand shifts, business opportunities and development guidance for technology-related manufacturing factories:

Overall, the AI boom has driven explosive demand across the upstream of the entire industrial chain, bringing massive new growth opportunities for domestic factories. As global technology enters a new phase of parallel China-U.S. development, the supply chain advantages of domestic factories are now fully leveraged.

1. Changes in product manufacturing and design demand: AI has driven a sharp increase in demand for upstream components. As a core industrial basic component, MLCC demand is growing rapidly alongside the expansion of AI servers. The humanoid embodied intelligence robot industry is growing fast, leading to a sharp increase in orders for related components and robot bodies. Demand for advanced semiconductor packaging is also rising, as the 3D stacked heterogeneous integration technology route has been commercialized, and is set to see large-scale demand growth.

2. Business opportunities and development insights: China and the U.S. are starting on a level playing field in new sectors including glass substrates, advanced packaging, quantum computing, and embodied intelligence. Domestic factories enjoy supply chain cost advantages and enormous room for growth, so they can position early to enter these emerging fields. Factories should focus on technological innovation, pursue a differentiated strategy, and upgrade product technology to meet demand from emerging industries. They can also partner with professional investment institutions to access capital and industrial connections to scale up the business.

This article lays out the latest changes in hard tech entrepreneurship and investment, compiling key takeaways including industry trends, client pain points and opportunity directions for service providers serving the technology sector:

Overall, hard tech entrepreneurship and investment have entered a brand-new development stage, with major shifts in client demand, creating many new market opportunities for service providers.

1. Industry development trends: Technology investment has shifted from the traditional scatter-shot angel investment model to a new stage of concentrated investment and active post-investment management. Investment institutions are increasingly focusing on the frontier technology sectors outlined in the 15th Five-Year Plan. Leading institutions have already secured support from China's national venture capital guidance fund, with growing capital scales, and "invest early, invest deep, invest in tech" has become industry consensus.

2. Core client pain points: On one hand, early-stage valuations of high-quality hard tech projects have risen sharply, leaving many small and medium-sized institutions unable to participate. With scarce high-quality projects and overcrowded sectors, investment institutions have strong demand for accurate project matching and industrial resource support. On the other hand, early-stage hard tech founders need in-depth services including team building, industrial connection, fundraising support, and resource linking — basic general services can no longer meet these demands.

3. Opportunity directions: Service providers can focus on cutting-edge popular sectors including AI, semiconductors, and embodied intelligence, and offer in-depth services such as industrial resource matching, talent recruitment, and technical consulting for investment institutions and founders, to enter this blue ocean market.

This article shares Innoangel Fund's latest investment strategy and industry observations, compiling key takeaways for tech investment platforms and industrial incubation platforms:

Overall, demand for platform services from tech entrepreneurs and investors has changed. Platforms need to adjust their operation and recruitment strategies to capture current technology dividends while avoiding bubble risks in the industry.

1. Changing demand: Demand for platform services has shifted from basic information matching in the past to in-depth resource empowerment. Both high-quality hard tech projects and investment institutions need in-depth services including industrial connection, local government relationship linking, and talent matching. Platforms that position early in frontier sectors are more likely to access high-quality project resources.

2. Operational best practices: Platforms can learn from Innoangel's approach: partner with universities in advance to cultivate entrepreneurs, identify promising young founders early through internship programs, startup competitions and scholarships to build a pipeline of early projects. For investment and incubation, adopt a concentrated investment and active post-investment management model, deeply support founders, and help projects connect resources to overcome challenges. Internally, build a tiered talent team, give young employees opportunities to test and grow, to boost team vitality.

3. Risk mitigation: Current popular frontier sectors are overcrowded with generally inflated valuations and certain bubble risks. Platforms should not blindly chase hot trends; instead, they should position for potential opportunities before broad consensus forms, control investment allocation in overcrowded sectors, and mitigate bubble risks.

This article is an in-depth interview with a veteran frontline technology investor, documenting the latest changes in China's technology industry and venture capital sector, with key insights for researchers summarized below:

Overall, the interview records new developments in the global technology landscape and China's domestic venture capital industry, and raises new industry issues, offering high value as source material for both industrial and venture capital research.

1. New industry dynamics: The global technology landscape has undergone a fundamental shift. From the internet and semiconductor eras when the U.S. held a commanding lead while China caught up, it has now transformed into a new landscape of parallel China-U.S. development in AI. Almost all global top technology companies are concentrated in China and the U.S., while Europe and Japan have been left far behind. China's domestic capital market pricing system has been rewritten, with overall valuation increases for tech assets, forming a macro-level K-shaped divergence where tech sectors rise and traditional sectors fall.

2. New venture capital models: The business model of China's early-stage technology investment has changed. It has shifted from the traditional scatter-shot angel investment model to a new model of concentrated investment and active post-investment management: firms place large bets on a small number of high-quality projects, while deeply engaging in the early operations of startups, connecting resources and supporting growth. The core investment logic has also shifted from betting on sectors to betting on people, with a particular preference for outstanding young founders, who are seen as more likely to deliver successful outcomes in new sectors.

3. New industry challenges: Current popular frontier sectors are extremely overcrowded, with scarce high-quality projects and generally inflated valuations, forming a "consensus disaster" and certain industry bubbles. How to screen high-quality projects in overcrowded sectors and control bubble risks is a new challenge facing the entire industry.

Disclaimer: The "Quick Summary" content is entirely generated by AI. Please exercise discretion when interpreting the information. For issues or corrections, please email run@ebrun.com .

I am a Brand Seller Factory Service Provider Marketplace Seller Researcher Read it again.

“今天不抓住AI,就像20年前不买房。”

定焦One(dingjiaoone)原创

作者 | 金玙璠

编辑 | 贺树龙

20多年前,周全第一次近距离打量美国的半导体产业:先进的设备、成熟的工艺、密集的人才……两个字在他心头反复盘旋——绝望。

当时,周全还是个跑产线的年轻工程师,中国和美国半导体产业的差距,让他觉得“整整差了30年”。他对「定焦One」回忆,“甚至怀疑,这辈子可能都追不上。”

当年那个仰头打量别人产业的工程师,后来在半导体行业摸爬滚打17年、又做了十几年早期投资,如今,他是英诺基金管理合伙人。在中关村梦想实验室7层,周全坐在「定焦One」对面,说出口的,是跟20多年前截然相反的判断:

“这是最好的时代”、“这是中美并跑的时代”。

周全用一组数字诠释当下:SpaceX、OpenAI、Anthropic三家万亿美金量级的巨头正在美股排队上市,合计估值近四万亿美元,这个数字超过2000年互联网泡沫前夕全部IPO的市值之和;在中国,千亿市值的科技公司也“一把一把”地往外冒,A股牛市里,科创50一年涨了166%,中证白酒跌了26%。周全总结:这是冷热分明的“K型”——“科技向上,传统向下”。

而且,这绝对不是少数几家公司的造富神话,而是整个资本市场的定价体系被重写。一级市场上,一个清华博士牵头的项目,开口就是1-2亿美金估值——放在五年前匪夷所思,如今投资人们却觉得“非常合理”,因为对标的二级市场公司市值动辄数千亿。天花板,已被整体抬高。

这背后,是中美“并跑”的新局面。“过去互联网时代、半导体芯片时代,美国都遥遥领先,我们苦苦追赶,就像在赛车的跑道上,只求能看到美国的尾灯”,周全说,这一轮AI浪潮,从大模型的调用量到资本市场的体量,全球前列几乎只剩中美两家,欧洲、日本都被远远甩开,“为什么中国的资产也要重新定价?因为这是只有中美两家能并跑的时代。”

为了重注这个时代,周全刚刚主导英诺科创三期基金完成了15亿元的首关,只用了5个月。作为对比,6年前募集英诺科创一期基金时,用时一年多。

周全时不我待,他不停呼唤身边的人及时“上车”,“如果你今天不抓住AI,就像20年前不买房——你再勤奋,但是不all in AI,也会被时代远远甩下。”

他甚至一字一句地强调——“AI不是浪潮,是海啸”。

01.“开卷考试”,从撒芝麻盐到重投重管

时代给的机会,几乎写在了明面上。

具身智能、量子计算、太空算力、脑机接口——十五五规划点到的方向,成了几乎所有机构共同的答案。周全把这形容为一场“开卷考试”:题目都一样,不用再猜,“就看谁的水平高。”

代价是,拥挤到极致。他举了个例子:全球做量子的华人也就几千人,真正能创业的也就几十到一百人,“大家都围着这几十个人,这个赛道能不挤吗?”

于是,一个项目融资,常常是天使轮、A轮、B轮同时进行,“创始人一火,二十家机构同一天上门,被动‘选美’。”这种局面,他叫“共识灾难”。

那么,开卷考试怎么考高分?周全的答案是两条:挑得最准,下注最狠。

英诺的打法,是一步步“逼”出来的。2014年周全刚加入时,延续的还是个人天使的路子——首期基金9000万左右,投了80多个项目,单笔常常一两百万,投完也就不大管了。他后来复盘发现:真正活下来、赚到钱的,几乎都是科技项目。

2019年,英诺下决心全面转向科技;次年,科创一期基金起投,规模3.6亿元。此后每年年底,团队都会复盘、修正下一年的方向,“聚焦科技,但不同时期专注不同重点”。

去年,英诺主动求变,英诺科创成为英诺主基金,“做减法,把所有资源都集中起来。”

筹码厚了,打法也跟着变:看准的好项目持续加注,一个项目能投到五千万、甚至一个亿。

周全打了个德州扑克的比方,如果筹码太少,别人稍微一加注就把你逼出牌局,你连看牌的机会都没有;筹码够多,才有资格多看几轮。在估值普遍偏高的今天,这点尤其关键:一个清华博士牵头的项目,一上来就是一亿美金估值,“你至少得投两三千万起,才能上牌桌”。

这套全新打法被英诺概括成四个字:重投重管。重投,是把单项目投资额从过去的百万元级提到数千万元级,单项目持股10%到20%。重管,是在创业最早期就深度介入,帮团队面试CEO、找下游合作方、对接产业和地方资源。

“重投”最考验人的,不是顺风时加注,而是别人都撤了、你还敢不敢补位。松延动力就是这样一个例子。

英诺第一轮就投了它。到第二轮时,本来有一家机构准备投5000万,临时不投了,创始人一下子陷入融资困境。但英诺内部判断,这家公司被低估了,发展完全符合甚至超出预期,只是市场和投资机构还没认识到。于是周全又“顶了一轮”,帮他度过难关,后面又连着加了三轮,前后一共投了五轮。

后来的故事很多人都知道了:松延动力的机器人在2025年北京亦庄的机器人马拉松赛事中拿下第二名,并凭借亮眼表现斩获5000万订单,目前订单和营收均已过亿,是人形机器人赛道里最受关注的公司之一。

“在最好的项目上花最多的钱,而不是撒芝麻盐。”对临近上市、确定性高的项目,周全甚至会一把投进一个亿,“用它来保证基金的业绩。”

如果说“重投”是敢下注,“重管”的极致,则是陪创业者扛过最难的时刻。一家半导体公司曾遭遇团队分裂,又赶上中美博弈下先进制程流片受限,创始人把房子都卖了。英诺一路陪着, 甚至借钱帮公司维持,并且给创始人写信:“只要你不放弃,我们就永远陪着你。”

英诺与创始人相识于微时,愿意做他们在经历黑暗时仍然愿意出手帮扶的投资人。而那些在低估里被扶过的创始人,公司好起来后,常把英诺当成最信任的股东,甚至上市后做CVC、反过来成为英诺的LP。

这套打法效果如何,最终要看业绩。科创一期(2020年至2023年)押半导体、新能源、新材料,赶上了国产替代的上半场,运行五年多,成果非常好,标杆项目珂玛科技已登陆创业板并实现退出;二期(2023年至2026年)抓住了具身智能和合成生物学,成立不到三年,业绩也让LP非常满意;三期则瞄准前沿科技和人工智能。去年,英诺还成为国家创业投资引导基金首批支持的四家机构之一。

02.押注超级周期:半导体、具身智能与AI

和许多财务背景出身的投资人不同,周全看项目靠的是产业判断力。

17年半导体生涯,让这位“理工科投资人”能够听得懂技术逻辑,判断得了“创始人吹的牛到底有没有可能实现”。

半导体材料公司青禾晶元,就是他力排众议投资的。当时创始人只有一个人,拿着一份PPT,做的是高端半导体键合设备研发,行业常用这样的比喻来区分技术路径:传统光刻是“在一张纸上写更多字”,靠制程微缩提升密度;青禾的键合技术则是“把纸变成一本书”,靠三维堆叠、异质集成,把不同材料“杂交”到一起。

这在当年是个颇为另类的技术路线,请教的专家几乎一致评价“走不通”、“成本太高”。但周全和创始人母凤文聊完很快推进内部立项。他后来总结,对替代性技术,专家的意见极其重要;但颠覆性的技术,本来就是颠覆认知的。

周全用嫁接果树打比方:把不同材料“嫁接”到一起,能长出性能更好的新材料,“底层逻辑是通的,我就选择相信。”再加上创始人“人狠话不多”、在这个领域扎了七年、有几万小时的积累,人和事是匹配的,他就拍了板。

直到先进封装的需求起来,青禾的订单从大几千万跳到以“亿”来计。如今这个首轮估值不到五千万、五年涨了二十多倍的项目,“外面抢都抢不到,连创始人的面都见不上”。而母凤文后来不断给周全推荐项目,重大决策也来跟他商量。

产业背景还有个用处:帮他投进一些原本进不去的项目。科创一期的标杆苏州珂玛,做的是半导体卡脖子的核心材料,当年项目很火、根本投不进去,英诺是靠LP、老同事和产业方的关系才挤进去的。在硬科技这种稀缺资产面前,产业资源就是入场券。

至于半导体国产替代还有没有空间,周全的判断是:上半场,美国卡脖子之前的追赶式替代,已经进入收获期;下半场的逻辑变了,“不再是美国先搞出来、我们再国产替代,而是在AI时代同台竞技、并跑”。他说,玻璃基板、先进封装、太空、量子,中美几乎站在同一条起跑线上,“就看谁跑得快”。

在周全看来,这些“并跑的新战场”机会最多。对AI,他有取舍:最底层的基础大模型,“已经过了投资阶段,不碰”;但AI的基础设施“机会源源不断,一发布新路线,整个产业链又是一波爆发”。

比如今年初孵化、开发玻璃基板先进封装的深微芯创;再比如元瓷聚光,“一年前我们孵化它的时候,MLCC这个词很多人还不知道”,周全说。MLCC(多层陶瓷电容)被高盛称作“下一个存储”“工业大米”,需求随AI服务器暴涨。英诺孵化元瓷聚光一年,估值翻了几倍。

还有些方向,他下注得比别人更早,比如中科天算做的太空算力。创始人刘垚圻把卫星比作天上的“水电”,一颗卫星扫过哪个国家,当地就能像接水电一样接入、付费;地面建基站要三五年,卫星却能很快覆盖一个国家。中科天算,英诺投了三轮。

如果说半导体是老本行,具身智能则是周全下注最早、也最密的赛道,他布局了松延动力、云深处、加速进化、鹿明、灵足等一批公司。

在周全的判断里,具身智能是中美制造业“下一个增长点”:一边是老龄化与劳动力短缺,一边是制造业回流的压力,“这是中美都必须发展的方向”,未来能跑出一批千亿市值公司。

只是下注的位置在变。早两年大家都挤在硬件、本体上,如今他把重心移向了“大脑”——世界模型。“本体说到底还是制造业,竞争一定越来越激烈,毛利往下走。”他的策略因此分成两层:本体类项目格局已定;而真正资本价值更高的,是偏软的大脑端——今年英诺几乎完全转向世界模型,一口气投了好几家:千诀、流形空间、VAST、厘清、Aether等等。

其中最有代表性的是流形空间,英诺连投五轮,单个项目就投了八千多万。这是一家做世界模型的公司:创始人来自商汤早期核心团队,公司成立才一年,已在李飞飞牵头的世界模型榜单上登顶,模型已完成端侧部署,跑在NVIDIA Jetson Thor上。

周全也不否认泡沫,但他认定中国市场足够大、细分赛道足够多,“能容得下很多家公司,最后胜者为王。”

对周全来说,所谓产业判断,绝对不是追着最热的概念跑,而是在共识尚未形成、路径仍然模糊的时候,提前看懂技术变化、产业需求和人的可能性。半导体、具身智能、AI都是如此。

当然,周全并非没有踏空过。影石、智谱这些后来的大赢家,他都曾因为“嫌贵”而错过。周全不避讳:“根源是当年基金规模不够、格局也不够。”——也正因为这些教训,今天再碰到真正优秀的人,他学会了先放足够的钱、先上车。

03.押注年轻人,培养“会开枪”的投资人

如果说重仓是“术”,那么周全真正下注的“道”,是人,尤其是年轻人。

“投到好项目,是英诺生态自然涌现的结果,我们只是发现并相信了他们。”在他这里,约三分之一的项目来自以清华为代表的大院大所。英诺在清华开了多年的创新创业导引课,设了奖学金,赞助三创大赛,把创业的种子早早埋进学生心里。

最花心思的,是做了近十年的“小天使计划”:每年从近千份简历里挑出30个名校学生,到英诺深度实习,立项会、投决会都让他们坐在后排旁听。“别的机构生怕你碰项目,我们生怕你碰得不够多。”这些年轻人毕业后散到各家机构和大厂,又成了英诺遍布全球的“项目哨兵”。周全说,他花在小天使身上的时间,“比陪自己孩子还多。”

他对年轻人近乎偏爱。回看十几年,他错过的优秀项目,“几乎都是年轻人的项目”——当年总觉得他们狂、觉得他们在吹牛。“等我们也成了‘老登’才明白,年轻人吹牛的时候,反而要认真听,因为我们的认知,到不了他那个层面。”

一个教训他常常提起。2018、2019年看四足机器人时,他看了云深处,也看了其他项目。他判断云深处对标波士顿动力、在供应链优势下能实现“机器人平民化”,2020年出手。云深处后来成了“杭州六小龙”之一,英诺也已部分落袋。

而他当时觉得贵的项目,估值1.5亿,就没投。“回头看,有极客特质的创始人很难找,哪怕贵,也该参与、上车观察”。这件事反复出现在英诺的复盘里:看硬科技,不能只看赛道和技术,更要看创始人本身。

在周全看来,优秀年轻创业者有“九条命”:一个方向走不通,他还能转身,再活过来;而那些功成名就的人,“鲜花已经绽放,接着往往就是凋谢。”

这套对年轻人的偏爱,也复制到了英诺自己的团队。从65后、75后到85后、90后,如今还招00后,周全要的是“人才梯度”和“集体作战”。机制简单到近乎透明:哪怕你入职第一天,推荐的项目就能分carry;不打卡,只看结果,你年底能拿多少、基金结束能分多少,规则都写好了,自己一算就知道该不该升职。

“更关键的是给年轻人‘开枪’的机会。好的猎手,不开枪就很难成长。”他算过一笔账:从零培养一个能独当一面的投手,行业里大约要交一两亿到两三亿的“学费”——也就是允许他出手,也允许他投砸。“在英诺做投资经理是幸福的,因为我们有足够多的项目,让你有开枪、有成长的机会。”

被问到如果用一句话概括过去十多年的投资哲学,周全说:投资那些“优秀的、能改变未来、能让国家更美好的年轻人”。

“赚钱,是顺带的事,”他说,“如果你冲着赚钱去做天使投资,反而赚不到钱。”

周全最欣赏的创业者的画像是,人狠话不多、看准方向、不受外界干扰、内心笃定。这也是一个产业工程师,在亲历过中国科技的发展后,想对今天的年轻硬科技创业者说的话:认准一件事,长期坚持,做到极致,永远在一线。

20多年前,周全在大洋彼岸看着那道遥不可及的差距,以为这辈子都追不上;20多年后,他相信自己正站在一场海啸的浪尖。至于这究竟是不是最好的时代,或许要等潮水退去才见分晓——但至少此刻,他选择不再错过。

注:文/定焦One团队,文章来源:定焦One,本文为作者独立观点,不代表亿邦动力立场。

文章来源:定焦One

广告
微信
朋友圈

这么好看,分享一下?

朋友圈 分享

APP内打开

+1
+1
微信好友 朋友圈 新浪微博 QQ空间
关闭
收藏成功
发送
/140 0