中越边境货运量攀升 供应链联动支撑越南制造扩张

This article focuses on the current industry landscape where, against the backdrop of U.S. additional tariffs on Chinese goods, an increasing number of Chinese manufacturers have set up factories in Vietnam. This trend has deepened China-Vietnam supply chain integration and driven rapid growth in cross-border trade. It also outlines associated risks and future trends. Key takeaways are as follows:

1. Core data: China’s exports to Vietnam will hit $198.11 billion in 2025, up 22.4% year-on-year and double the 2019 volume. China’s outbound investment in Vietnam will reach nearly $4 billion in 2025, making China Vietnam’s second-largest source of foreign direct investment. In the first half of 2026, Vietnam’s trade surplus with the U.S. will surpass China’s, taking the top spot among U.S. trading partners.

2. Current characteristics: Industrial zones in northern Vietnam continue to expand and have attracted a large number of Chinese-funded enterprises. 70% to 80% of components and intermediate machinery and equipment are still supplied from China. Customs clearance efficiency along the China-Vietnam border has improved, with each clearance taking less than one hour, enabling supply chains in South China to connect with Vietnamese factories within 10 hours.

3. Potential risks: The U.S. has launched investigations into Chinese-linked factories in Vietnam, creating market expectations of new additional tariffs on Vietnamese goods.

China-Vietnam supply chain integration is deepening, and the relocation of Chinese manufacturing to Vietnam has shifted from a short-term wave to a long-term trend. Brands can adjust their global production footprint in line with these industry changes. Key takeaways are as follows:

1. Locational advantages: Vietnam boasts clear labor cost advantages: the minimum monthly salary in core industrial areas of northern Vietnam is equivalent to around 260 Singapore dollars, far lower than the minimum wage in major manufacturing regions of Guangdong, China. It also offers smooth logistics: road transport is more flexible than ocean shipping, with South China supply chains able to connect with factories in northern Vietnam within 10 hours and highly efficient customs clearance, making it a top priority for production relocation.

2. Industry status: Leading brands including Apple have operated in Vietnam for years and are pushing their Chinese suppliers at all tiers to set up local factories. Currently, 70% to 80% of components used in Vietnam still rely on Chinese supply, and it is unrealistic for the country to fully decouple from Chinese technology and supply chains over the next 5 to 10 years.

3. Risks and trends: There is latent risk that the U.S. will impose new additional tariffs on Vietnam. The Vietnamese government is pushing to upgrade local industries up the value chain, and the share of locally sourced components will gradually rise in the future.

China’s manufacturing relocation to Vietnam and booming border trade have created a number of new market opportunities, alongside clear risks. Key takeaways are as follows:

1. Market opportunities: China-Vietnam border trade is growing rapidly. In the first half of 2026, two-way trade volume at the Pingxiang Youyi Guan crossing reached 30.56 billion yuan, up 28.3% year-on-year. As Vietnamese industrial zones expand and a growing number of Chinese firms set up local operations, demand for Chinese-made machinery, components and raw materials has surged, creating substantial room for growth in cross-border logistics and supply chain supporting services.

2. Risk warning: The U.S. has recently launched investigations into Chinese-linked factories in Vietnam, creating the possibility of new U.S. tariffs on Vietnamese goods. Sellers expanding into Vietnam should prepare risk response plans in advance.

3. Referenceable model: Many Chinese companies operating in Vietnam have adopted a diversified footprint of "retaining 40% of production capacity in China while gradually increasing Vietnam’s share to 60%". This model lets businesses capture Vietnam’s cost and tariff advantages while preserving the stability of their original supply chains, making it a useful reference.

The relocation of Chinese manufacturing to Vietnam has become a long-term trend, and domestic Chinese manufacturers can capture new business opportunities and adjust their production strategies accordingly. Key takeaways are as follows:

1. New business opportunities: As a growing number of Chinese firms set up factories in Vietnam, demand from northern Vietnamese factories for Chinese-made machinery, components and raw materials has continued to surge. Domestic Chinese producers in these sectors can expand their export business to Vietnam and capture this incremental market.

2. Reference for production layout: Most Chinese manufacturers that have relocated to Vietnam still rely on support from Chinese supply chains, and widely adopt a layout of retaining partial production capacity in China while gradually expanding capacity in Vietnam. This approach lets them capture Vietnam’s lower labor costs and favorable tariff access to the U.S. market while guaranteeing supply chain stability. Domestic Chinese factories can adopt this model to reduce the risks of overseas expansion.

3. Long-term trend implications: The Vietnamese government is aiming to upgrade the local components industry and reduce dependence on external supply chains. Factories that set up local production in Vietnam early can pre-empt the future local supply market.

Deepening integration between China and Vietnam’s supply chains has driven rapid growth in demand for cross-border related services, with clear industry trends emerging. Key takeaways are as follows:

1. Core customer pain points: Demand for cross-border industrial cargo transport to Vietnam has surged, and existing warehousing and logistics infrastructure can no longer match market demand. One existing logistics provider has expanded its warehouse footprint to 17 times its original size over several years, and there is still room for further growth.

2. Industry trends: To accommodate growing demand, China-Vietnam border crossings are undergoing capacity expansion and smart upgrades. Customs clearance now takes less than one hour per shipment, and future plans include further smart port construction, opening designated road segments for autonomous trucks, expanding freight train capacity and expanding cross-border rail networks. This will further amplify the flexibility advantage of road transport over ocean shipping.

3. Market opportunities: As manufacturing relocation continues, more and more Chinese companies are establishing operations in Vietnam. Service providers including cross-border logistics, customs clearance support and industrial park operation can expand their China-Vietnam border business targeting this demand to capture incremental market share.

The growth of China-Vietnam border trade and manufacturing relocation has raised new requirements for border trade platforms and industrial park platforms. Key relevant takeaways are as follows:

1. Market demand: Booming growth in China-Vietnam cross-border freight has created higher requirements for crossing capacity, warehousing supporting infrastructure and smart operation capabilities. Existing crossing infrastructure can no longer meet demand and requires continuous upgrading.

2. Referenceable operational practices: The Pingxiang Youyi Guan crossing has improved traffic efficiency through multiple rounds of expansion and upgrades. It is currently developing smart port infrastructure, piloting autonomous truck crossings, expanding freight train capacity and advancing cross-border rail network construction between the two countries. These upgrading practices can serve as a reference for similar border port platforms.

3. Operation and investment promotion tips: Industrial zones in northern Vietnam are continuing to expand, and there is strong demand for space from Chinese-funded manufacturing enterprises relocating to Vietnam. Platforms can target investment promotion specifically at Chinese firms relocating production to Vietnam, and provide supporting cross-border logistics and customs clearance services to meet enterprise needs. At the same time, they should be alert to the policy risk of new U.S. tariffs and prepare risk mitigation plans in advance.

This wave of Chinese manufacturing relocation to Vietnam exhibits a number of new characteristics and has brought new changes to the global supply chain landscape. Key points for research are summarized below:

1. New industry trends: Against the backdrop of U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods, the relocation of Chinese manufacturing to Vietnam has shifted from a short-term wave of relocation to a long-term investment trend. By 2025, China will become Vietnam’s second-largest source of foreign direct investment, with deep integration between China and Vietnam’s supply chains. Efficient logistics networks have turned Vietnamese factories into an extension of Chinese manufacturing capacity. In the first half of 2026, Vietnam’s trade surplus with the U.S. will surpass China’s, making it the top U.S. trading partner and bringing new shifts to the global export trade landscape.

2. Emerging issues: The U.S. has launched investigations into Chinese-linked factories in Vietnam, creating the risk of new tariffs on Vietnamese goods. Vietnam aims to upgrade local industries to reduce dependence on Chinese supply chains, but in the short term 70% to 80% of components in Southeast Asia still rely on Chinese supply, making full decoupling from Chinese supply chains unrealistic.

3. New business model: Many Chinese companies expanding overseas have developed a diversified business model of "retaining partial production capacity in China + expanding capacity in Vietnam", which balances cost advantages and supply chain stability. This represents a new business model experiment for manufacturing capacity globalization.