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智谱的万亿估值 是中国AI的新故事

伯虎团队 2026-06-26 11:12
伯虎团队 2026/06/26 11:12

邦小白快读

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这篇文章核心介绍了国内大模型企业智谱估值突破万亿港元的来龙去脉,梳理了当前AI行业的整体发展现状与问题,核心干货如下:

1. 当前全球AI赛道资本热度极高,头部AI企业估值集体上涨,中美顶级大模型的能力差距已经从过去的代际领先缩小到个位数,中国大模型凭借成本优势,周调用量已经连续八周位居全球第一,海外企业承受不住海外大模型的高成本,普遍采用多模型策略,给中国大模型留出了增长空间。

2. 智谱能拿到万亿估值,核心是抓住了海外顶级模型暂停海外服务的窗口,推出能力接近第一梯队的GLM-5.2,同时跑通了MaaS商业化模式,提价后调用量仍大幅增长,已经具备一定定价权。

3. 目前智谱仍面临高研发投入导致的持续亏损、赛道竞争激烈、商业模式护城河尚未稳固的问题。

本文梳理了当前AI大模型赛道的发展趋势与智谱的成长路径,能给AI相关品牌商提供不少参考,核心干货如下:

1. 当前行业与消费趋势:全球资本扎堆投入AI赛道,市场已经从单纯比拼模型排行榜排名,转向关注企业真实的收入、利润增长,企业端对高性价比、可稳定访问的大模型需求快速上升,多模型策略成为企业的普遍选择。

2. 品牌成长可借鉴经验:智谱精准抓住海外头部模型停止海外服务的时间窗口,及时推出能力匹配的开放模型,快速获得市场认可;同时聚焦Coding和Agent企业刚需赛道,靠模型能力获得了定价权,提价后用户规模依然高速增长。

3. 需要注意的风险:当前AI赛道模型能力差距快速收敛,后续竞争会转向获客成本、渠道布局和企业关系网络,品牌需要提前布局构建自身壁垒。

本文梳理了AI大模型行业的最新变化,给AI相关赛道的卖家整理了明确的机会、可学习经验与风险提示,核心内容如下:

1. 当前行业明确增长机会:全球AI赛道资本热度居高不下,中美大模型能力差距快速缩小,中国大模型的API均价不到美国同类的20%,训练成本不到10%,具备极强的商业竞争力;叠加海外顶级模型访问受限、企业普遍采用多模型策略,给国内大模型相关卖家留出了充足增长空间。

2. 可复制的成熟商业模式:智谱的MaaS模式已经得到市场验证,聚焦Coding和Agent企业刚需方向,通过开源开放快速扩大开发者生态,靠API按Token收费实现高速增长,提价后调用量仍上涨说明模式已经被用户认可。

3. 需要注意的风险:AI赛道研发投入刚性,普遍存在较大亏损压力,互联网头部大厂都在布局相关赛道,开源模式技术容易被复制,后续竞争会愈发激烈,需要尽快构建自身竞争壁垒。

本文介绍了AI大模型商业化的最新进展,能给传统工厂推进数字化转型、挖掘商业机会带来不少启示,核心干货如下:

1. 当前AI大模型的发展已经给工厂数字化降低了门槛:现在中国顶级大模型的能力已经接近美国顶尖水平,但是API价格和训练成本远低于海外模型,同时大量开放模型可以直接调用,工厂不需要投入高额成本自建大模型,就能获得可用的AI能力。

2. AI大模型可以支撑工厂产品生产与设计需求:当前大模型在代码生成、智能化工具开发领域已经成熟落地,工厂可以依托大模型低成本开发适合自身的生产设计工具、流程管理系统,提升生产效率,推动产品创新。

3. 转型启示:工厂推进数字化可以选择轻资产模式,通过按需调用大模型的MaaS模式开展转型,不需要投入重资产自建算力和模型,大幅降低转型的风险,同时需要跟进AI技术的快速迭代,及时调整转型方案。

本文梳理了AI大模型服务行业的最新发展趋势、客户痛点与可行方案,给AI相关服务商提供了明确参考,核心干货如下:

1. 行业发展最新趋势:当前AI大模型行业已经从技术比拼阶段进入商业化验证阶段,市场不再单纯追求模型排名,更看重真实的收入增长;企业客户越来越倾向于采用多模型按需选择的策略,对高性价比、可稳定访问的本土大模型服务需求快速上升。

2. 当前客户的核心痛点:海外顶级大模型不仅存在访问不确定性,还存在token成本过高的问题,很多企业难以承担持续使用的高额成本,迫切需要能力接近、成本更低的替代方案。

3. 可行的落地方案:可以参考智谱的发展路径,聚焦企业刚需的Coding和Agent方向,采用开源开放模式降低客户使用门槛,通过MaaS按调用量收费,既降低客户前期投入,也能实现自身持续收入增长,同时需要保持高频模型迭代维持竞争力。

本文以智谱为例分析了AI大模型行业的发展现状,给AI平台的运营发展梳理了可借鉴经验与需要规避的风险,核心内容如下:

1. 当前市场对AI平台的核心需求:开发者和企业客户都需要可便捷调用、成本低廉、能力可靠稳定的本土大模型服务,海外大模型的访问不确定性,进一步推高了市场对本土大模型平台的需求。

2. 平台运营可借鉴的做法:智谱的MaaS平台聚焦Coding企业刚需场景,保持两个月一次的高频模型迭代,通过开源开放快速吸引开发者生态,提价后依然保持调用量高速增长,验证了模式可行性,平台可以围绕刚需场景打磨能力构建竞争力。

3. 需要规避的行业风险:AI行业研发投入刚性,持续亏损是行业普遍问题,平台需要平衡模型迭代投入与成本控制,避免陷入投入越高亏损越多的循环;同时当前赛道竞争激烈,头部大厂都在布局,需要尽快构建生态壁垒,避免被挤压。

本文梳理了全球AI大模型产业的最新动向,以智谱为样本展现了中国大模型商业化探索的现状,给产业研究提供了丰富的研究素材,核心内容如下:

1. 产业发展最新动向:当前全球AI产业资本热度持续提升,头部AI企业估值快速上涨,中美顶级大模型的能力差距从过去的代际差距缩小到个位数,中国大模型凭借成本优势已经占据全球调用量的首位,产业整体从技术比拼转向商业化能力验证。

2. 新商业模式探索样本:智谱探索的开源MaaS模式,是中国大模型商业化的新路径,通过开放模型能力吸引开发者,聚焦Coding刚需场景实现收入增长,已经初步验证了定价能力,被市场视作中国版Anthropic的潜在候选,是非常值得研究的新商业模式。

3. 产业新问题待研究:当前AI产业普遍面临研发投入刚性,成本随规模扩大指数级增长的问题,开源模式的护城河并不稳固,模型差距缩小后竞争转向传统获客与生态,这些都是AI产业发展中出现的新问题,具备较高的研究价值。

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Quick Summary

This article breaks down how Chinese large language model (LLM) developer Zhipu AI reached a valuation exceeding 1 trillion Hong Kong dollars, and outlines the current status and core challenges of the global AI industry. Key takeaways are as follows:

1. The global AI sector is seeing extremely high capital inflows, with valuations of leading AI companies rising across the board. The capability gap between top-tier Chinese and U.S. LLMs has narrowed from a full generational lead for the U.S. to a single-digit percentage difference. Fueled by its cost advantage, weekly API call volume for Chinese LLMs has ranked first globally for eight consecutive weeks. Overseas enterprises, unable to absorb the high costs of Western LLMs, have widely adopted multi-model strategies, creating room for growth for Chinese LLM providers.

2. Zhipu AI’s 1 trillion Hong Kong dollar valuation stems largely from its timing: it capitalized on the window created when top overseas models paused non-domestic services, launched GLM-5.2, a model with capabilities on par with the global first tier, and scaled a viable MaaS (Model as a Service) business model. Even after raising prices, its API call volume has grown sharply, giving it meaningful pricing power.

3. Zhipu AI still faces headwinds: sustained losses from heavy R&D spending, intense industry competition, and still-unproven long-term competitive moats for its business model.

This article outlines the development trends of the global LLM industry and Zhipu AI’s growth trajectory, offering key insights for AI-related brands. Key takeaways are as follows:

1. Current industry and consumer trends: Global capital is flooding into the AI sector, and the market has shifted from purely competing on LLM benchmark rankings to focusing on actual revenue and profit growth. Enterprise demand for cost-effective, reliably accessible LLMs is surging, and multi-model strategies have become the norm for most businesses.

2. Actionable lessons for brand growth: Zhipu AI seized the time window when leading overseas models suspended international services, quickly launched a competitive open model that matched market needs, and gained rapid market traction. It also focused on high-demand enterprise segments including coding and agents, built pricing power through strong model performance, and maintained rapid user growth even after raising prices.

3. Key risks to watch: Capability gaps across competing LLMs are narrowing rapidly, and future competition will center on customer acquisition costs, channel布局 and enterprise relationship networks. Brands need to build their competitive barriers early.

This article summarizes the latest shifts in the LLM industry, outlining clear opportunities, actionable lessons and risk warnings for sellers in AI-related sectors. Core content is as follows:

1. Clear growth opportunities in the current industry: Capital inflows into the global AI sector remain red-hot, and the capability gap between Chinese and U.S. LLMs is narrowing quickly. The average API price of Chinese LLMs is less than 20% of comparable U.S. models, and training costs are less than 10%, giving them strong commercial competitiveness. Combined with access restrictions on top overseas models and the widespread adoption of multi-model strategies by enterprises, this creates ample room for growth for domestic LLM-related sellers.

2. A replicable proven business model: Zhipu AI’s MaaS model has been validated by the market. It focuses on high-priority enterprise needs for coding and agents, rapidly expands its developer ecosystem through open-source availability, and drives high growth through token-based API pricing. Continued call volume growth after price hikes confirms the model has strong user acceptance.

3. Key risks to note: AI R&D spending is rigid, creating widespread pressure of significant losses. Large Chinese internet giants are all entering the space, open-source technology is easily replicated, and competition will only intensify going forward. Market players need to build their competitive barriers as soon as possible.

This article covers the latest progress in LLM commercialization, offering insights for traditional factories pursuing digital transformation and new business opportunities. Key takeaways are as follows:

1. LLM development has lowered the barrier to digital transformation for factories: Top Chinese LLMs now have capabilities close to U.S. leading models, but their API prices and training costs are far lower than overseas alternatives. A large number of open models are available for direct integration, meaning factories can access usable AI capabilities without investing heavily to build proprietary LLMs in-house.

2. LLMs can support factories’ product manufacturing and design needs: LLMs are already maturely deployed in code generation and intelligent tool development. Factories can use LLMs to low-cost build customized production design tools and process management systems, improving production efficiency and driving product innovation.

3. Key takeaways for transformation: Factories can adopt an asset-light approach to digital transformation via on-demand MaaS access to LLMs, avoiding heavy capital investment in proprietary computing power and models, which significantly reduces transformation risk. They also need to keep up with the rapid iteration of AI technology and adjust transformation plans in a timely manner.

This article summarizes the latest development trends, core customer pain points and actionable solutions for the LLM service industry, offering clear guidance for AI-related service providers. Key insights are as follows:

1. Latest industry trends: The LLM industry has moved past the pure technology competition phase and into the commercial validation stage. The market no longer prioritizes model benchmark rankings, and instead focuses on actual revenue growth. Enterprise clients are increasingly adopting a multi-model on-demand selection strategy, and demand for cost-effective, reliably accessible domestic LLM services is growing rapidly.

2. Core customer pain points: Top overseas LLMs face both access uncertainty and extremely high token costs. Many enterprises cannot absorb the high recurring costs of long-term use, and there is urgent demand for lower-cost alternatives with comparable capabilities.

3. Viable go-to-market approaches: Service providers can follow Zhipu AI’s growth path: focus on high-demand enterprise use cases including coding and agents, use open-source to lower customers’ barriers to adoption, and generate recurring revenue through usage-based MaaS pricing. This lowers upfront costs for customers while driving sustainable revenue growth for providers. Providers also need to maintain frequent model iterations to retain competitiveness.

This article analyzes the current state of the LLM industry using Zhipu AI as a case study, outlining actionable lessons and key risks for AI platform operators. Core content is as follows:

1. Core market demand for AI platforms: Both developers and enterprise clients need easily accessible, low-cost, reliable domestic LLM services. Access uncertainty for overseas LLMs has further increased market demand for domestic LLM platforms.

2. Operational lessons for platforms: Zhipu AI’s MaaS platform focuses on the high-demand enterprise use case of coding, releases new model iterations every two months, rapidly grows its developer ecosystem through open-source, and maintains strong call volume growth even after price increases, validating its business model. Platforms can build competitiveness by refining capabilities around high-demand core use cases.

3. Key industry risks to avoid: Rigid R&D spending and sustained losses are widespread industry issues. Platforms need to balance investment in model iteration and cost control to avoid a cycle of escalating losses. At the same time, competition in the sector is extremely intense, with all large internet incumbents building out their own offerings. Platforms need to build ecological barriers as soon as possible to avoid being squeezed out of the market.

This article summarizes the latest developments in the global LLM industry, uses Zhipu AI as a case study to illustrate the current state of commercialization exploration for Chinese LLMs, and provides rich research material for industrial research. Core content is as follows:

1. Latest industry developments: Global AI sector continues to see rising capital inflows, with valuations of leading AI companies growing rapidly. The capability gap between top Chinese and U.S. LLMs has narrowed from a generational gap to a single-digit difference. Chinese LLMs have captured the top spot in global API call volume thanks to their cost advantage, and the overall industry has shifted from technology competition to commercial capability validation.

2. A case study of new business model exploration: Zhipu AI’s open-source MaaS model represents a new commercialization path for Chinese LLMs. It attracts developers by opening up model capabilities, drives revenue growth by focusing on the high-demand coding use case, and has already demonstrated preliminary pricing power. Market participants see it as a potential Chinese equivalent of Anthropic, making its business model particularly worthy of in-depth research.

3. New industry problems for future research: The AI industry broadly faces rigid R&D spending, with costs growing exponentially as scale increases. Open-source models do not build durable competitive moats, and after model capability gaps narrow, competition shifts to traditional customer acquisition and ecosystem building. These are all new issues emerging in AI industry development that carry high research value.

Disclaimer: The "Quick Summary" content is entirely generated by AI. Please exercise discretion when interpreting the information. For issues or corrections, please email run@ebrun.com .

I am a Brand Seller Factory Service Provider Marketplace Seller Researcher Read it again.

来源 | 伯虎财经(bohuFN)

作者 | All too well

大模型第一股智谱真是越来越神了。

4月份大家还在感慨,一家去年年收入7亿元的公司,市值居然冲上了4000亿港元大关。两个月后,6月22日,其市值一度突破万亿港元关口。

这到底是怎么发生的?或者说凭啥?

和AI沾边的一切都开始疯狂

这一年,和AI沾边的一切都开始疯狂了。

Crunchbase报告显示,今年一季度,仅Open AI、Anthropic、xAI和Waymo四家企业的融资额就占到全球总量的65%。

英伟达的市值一度冲上5.7万亿美元,过去一年的股价涨幅超过六成Anthropic、Open AI也先后向美国SEC秘密递交IPO申请,进入上市冲刺阶段,两家的估值都已经逼近万亿美元级别。

国内也是如此。

据《财经天下》粗略统计,港股年内涨幅超过100%且市值超千亿港元的公司约有12家,这些企业全部属于硬科技赛道,基本都是沾了AI的光。比如MiniMax、“国产GPU四小龙”之一的壁仞科技、存储芯片制造商兆易创新、半导体公司华虹宏力等。

A股同样如此,中际旭创、中芯国际总市值均超过了万亿元大关,寒武纪也即将触及万亿门槛。

与此同时,今年以来,包括大模型公司在内的诸多新兴科技公司的融资速度和规模,在国内都堪称史无前例。

比如月之暗面,2月底80亿美元估值的一轮融资结束后,当日就开启定价170亿美元的新一轮融资。半个月后,估值再度上调至180亿美元,融资20亿美元,投后估值达200亿美元。一直靠母公司输血的DeepSeek也开启定向邀请制融资,估计400亿美元左右,许多国资和互联网巨头都在积极接触。

如果说,去年大家还在争论AI到底是不是泡沫,到了今年,关于AI泡沫论没有停止,但市场似乎更害怕错失机会。

这种变化不是突然发生的。

第一,模型能力差距正在收敛。中美顶级模型之间的差距,从过去的代际领先,变成个位数差距。按Artificial Analysis的口径,中国前沿模型的综合智能水平,两年前还只有美国顶尖水平的60%,现在到了90% 左右。

第二,国内模型的成本优势开始体现出来。据瑞银半导体团队分析,中国模型的API均价不到美国同类的20%,训练成本不到10%,但毛利率却和Anthropic、OpenAI基本持平,都在20% 到40% 之间。

换句话说,中国模型不仅在追赶能力,也开始展现出自己的商业竞争力。OpenRouter监测数据显示,中国AI大模型周调用量连续八周居全球首位。

第三,是需求端的变化。微软取消内部Claude Code授权的原因之一,就是token的计费方式带来的成本压力。Uber今年头四个月就烧光了全年的AI预算,被迫削减后续使用规模。亚马逊干脆关掉了鼓励员工多用AI的内部排行榜等等。现在,越来越多企业开始采用多模型策略,按需选择,也给了中国大模型企业更多机会。

当然,模型能力依然重要,但市场已经不满足于排行榜上的领先,更想看到的是,实实在在的增长、收入和利润。

而国内,智谱就成了这个变化里最靓眼的崽。

为什么偏偏是智谱?

AI公司这么多,为什么偏偏是智谱率先摸到了万亿估值?

原因主要有两个:一是模型能力持续得到验证,二是它开始越来越像一家能赚钱的公司。

首先是模型能力。一个重要催化剂来自GLM-5.2。2026年6月12日,美国商务部以国家安全为由,要求Anthropic限制外国用户访问其最新模型Fable 5,Anthropic随后暂停了两款旗舰模型的海外服务。

第二天,智谱宣布GLM-5.2全量开放,不限地域。

非常巧妙的时间。对于不少开发者而言,当海外顶级模型的可获得性出现不确定性时,一个能力足够接近、且开放可用的替代方案,价值自然会被重新评估。

更重要的是,GLM-5.2本身也展现出了较强竞争力。其支持1M无损上下文、强化Coding能力,Day0完成多家国产算力平台适配,并采用MIT开源协议。

马斯克也帮忙点了一把火。6月19日,有网友在社交平台向马斯克提问:中国大模型什么时候能达到Anthropic Fable级别的水平?马斯克回复,可能要到2027年第一季度。

智谱创始人唐杰则直接回应:用不了这么久。马斯克补充说,跑分或许能追上,但实际实用性上Anthropic的优势还很大。唐杰再次回击:专注是唯一重要的事。

这个底气就是来自刚刚发布的GLM-5.2。据公开测试数据,在编程基准测试FrontierSWE中,GLM-5.2的成绩仅比Anthropic顶级闭源模型Claude Opus 4.8低约1个百分点,并超过OpenAI GPT-5.5,在全球可用模型中位居前列。

这意味着,智谱可以被视作全球第一梯队玩家。而更令大家关注的是,智谱的商业化进展速度。

过去很长时间里,外界对大模型公司的质疑都很类似:模型越来越强,但究竟能不能赚到钱?智谱给的答案是,正在把模型优势转化为收入增长。相比本地化部署业务,MaaS(Model as a Service,模型即服务)已经成为智谱最重要的增长引擎。

简单来说,开发者无需自建算力,也无需下载模型,只需通过API调用并按Token付费即可使用智谱的能力。而目前最核心的需求来源,正是代码生成和Agent应用。智谱CEO张鹏也明确表示,公司现阶段重点聚焦Coding和Agent方向。

2026年3月,智谱披露,MaaS平台API业务年度经常性收入(ARR)已经达到17亿元,同比增长约60倍;付费开发者超过24.2万人,Token调用量半年增长15倍。

相比增长本身,更值得关注的是增长质量。今年2月GLM-5发布后,智谱对部分服务进行了30%至60%的结构性提价,部分API价格涨幅甚至达到67%至100%。但涨价之后,调用量依然增长超过400%。(特别说明,400%的增长原因之一是此前基数很低)

也就是说,用户增长并非建立在低价补贴之上,而是模型能力已经有了一定程度的定价权。

对于一家AI公司而言,这种能力往往比单纯的收入增长更具价值。而市场之所以愿意给智谱接近万亿的估值,很大程度上也是因为这个路子,已经有了参考样本。

这个样本就是Anthropic。

今年以来,Anthropic的商业化进展堪称惊人。其年化收入从1月的90亿美元增长至5月的450亿美元。路透社还报道称,公司有望在第二季度实现营业利润约5.59亿美元。

Anthropic似乎证明了,变态式增长下,大模型公司还是赚钱能力的。

而智谱正在被越来越多人视作中国市场最接近这一故事的玩家之一。从GLM-5到GLM-5.1,再到GLM-5.2,智谱几乎保持着两月一次的重要更新节奏;与此同时,开发者数量、调用量和收入也在同步增长。

市场真正押注的,已经不是今天的智谱,而是它是否有机会成长为中国版Anthropic。

万亿估值之后,智谱还要证明什么?

那么,有吗?答案并不乐观。

即便强如Anthropic,也无法摆脱成本压力。Anthropic自己也承认,计划中的基础设施支出可能导致全年无法维持盈利。

模型需要持续训练,推理规模不断扩大,客户越多,算力需求反而越呈指数级增长。收入在增长,但烧钱速度,同样也在疯狂增长。

智谱同样如此。2025年智谱全年亏损47.18亿元,同比扩大59.5%;其中研发开支达31.8亿元,同比增长44.9%。这意味着,公司每赚1元钱,就要花掉4.4元在研发上。

与此同时,资本开支从2024年的4.6亿元下降至7470万元,结构从重资产算力投入转向“租赁+服务化”。

这并没有改变核心问题:模型能力的提升,并不会带来自然的成本下降。相反,竞争越激烈,投入越刚性。这让整个行业陷入一个循环:不做更强模型,就拿不到增长;做更强模型,就必须承担更高成本。

与此同时,Coding,是整个AI商业化最关键的分水岭。它让大模型第一次从生成工具,变成生产工具。Anthropic之所以能快速抬升估值,本质上是Claude Code切入了企业开发工作流。

但问题在于,这一市场并没有护城河稳定下来。

OpenAI正在快速反击。Codex周活跃用户在短时间内从60万增长到500万,增长迅猛。

国内竞争更为密集。智谱在2025年推出GLM Coding Plan,价格仅为Claude约七分之一,两个月内付费开发者超过15万,年底突破24.2万,中国前十大互联网公司中已有9家深度调用GLM模型。

但与此同时,“所有人都在做Coding”。

字节通过内部工程体系先验证,再外部化推广;Kimi押注多Agent协同,试图提升复杂任务处理能力;阿里、腾讯同样在构建自有编程模型体系。

智谱选择开源路径,本质上是在试图复制安卓模式:通过开放模型能力,扩大生态占有率。

但问题在于,这条路径并不天然通向护城河。MIT开源协议确实降低了使用门槛,也加速了开发者扩散,但同时也意味着:技术路线本身可以被快速复制。当模型能力差距缩小之后,竞争会迅速回到一个更现实的层面:获客成本、渠道能力,以及企业关系网络。而这些,恰恰是互联网大厂的传统优势领域。

最重要的是,ARR17亿元,到接近万亿港元的市值,要走的路实在是太长,太长,太长了啊。

参考来源:

1、财新周刊:智谱冲上万亿,市场在为什么买单?

2、财经天下WEEKLY:半年涨20倍,智谱惊呆了投资人

3、定焦One:7亿收入、万亿市值,智谱值吗?

4、华尔街见闻:智谱冲上万亿,市场在为什么买单?

注:文/伯虎团队,文章来源:伯虎财经(公众号ID:bohuFN),本文为作者独立观点,不代表亿邦动力立场。

文章来源:伯虎财经

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