中物联蔡进：中国经济的高质量发展的四个基本内涵与特征

亿邦动力 2024-07-15 11:50

亿邦动力 2024/07/15 11:50

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中国经济高质量发展有四个基本内涵与特征。

1. 稳中有增：2023年GDP增长5.2%，2024年一季度增长5.3%，二季度预计超5%，上半年平均约5.2%；未来5-10年有基础保持4-5%增长，基于人均GDP达1.2万美元、城镇化率66.16%且年增1.2个百分点、服务业占比54%有提升空间、科技进步赋能。

2. 迈向中高端：2022年数字经济占GDP41.5%，装备制造业PMI达51%，先进技术制造业PMI超52%；供应链历经八年发展，向数字化、智能化、绿色化、国际化成熟转型；高端产品如机械、汽车国际竞争力增强。

3. 创造新价值：经济转型痛点在于传统消费饱和，需从供给侧通过供应链创新创造价值，政府推动“人工智能+”行动，聚焦价值创造而非效率提升。

4. 绿色低碳可持续：三重境界包括节能减排、发展绿色产业和产品、形成绿色理念，追求人与自然和谐共生，通过供应链构建可持续发展新生态。

品牌商可关注消费趋势和产品高端化方向。

1. 消费趋势：城镇化率2023年为66.16%，年增1.2个百分点，近两亿待进城人口将拉动持续性消费增长；服务业占比约54%，目标提升至60-65%，提供新消费场景。

2. 产品研发：产业结构高端化加速，装备制造业PMI达51%，先进技术制造业PMI超52%，推动高端产品如机械、工程装备、汽车发展，增强国际市场竞争力。

3. 供应链影响：供应链向数字化、智能化、绿色化转型，创造新价值并传递至消费者，政府“人工智能+”行动可能影响品牌渠道建设和定价策略。

卖家可关注市场增长和政策导向的机会。

1. 增长市场：城镇化率提升带来近两亿人口消费潜力，服务业发展空间大，装备制造业PMI高显示市场需求旺盛；数字经济产值超50万亿元，提供新商业场景。

2. 政策解读：政府工作报告推动“人工智能+”行动，供应链创新成为头等任务，聚焦价值创造；供应链转型八年历程，从自主可控到优化升级，提供合作和扶持启示。

3. 机会提示：传统消费饱和痛点下，供应链创新创造新价值，带来商业模式更新；绿色低碳方向如节能减排和绿色产业，提示风险规避和可持续发展机会。

工厂可关注高端产品需求和数字化推进启示。

1. 产品需求：装备制造业PMI达51%，先进技术制造业PMI超52%，显示高端产品市场需求强劲；产业结构优化推动机械、工程装备、汽车等高端化生产。

2. 商业机会：城镇化率提升和服务业发展提供新市场；供应链向数字化、智能化、绿色化转型，启示电商和制造数字化推进，如“人工智能+”行动创造价值。

3. 绿色方向：绿色低碳三重境界包括节能减排、形成绿色产业和产品，要求生产设计融入可持续理念，供应链构建新生态提供启示。

服务商可关注行业趋势和客户痛点解决方案。

1. 趋势：数字经济占GDP比重达41.5%且提升；供应链向数字化、智能化、绿色化成熟发展；科技进步如“人工智能+”行动成为新动能。

2. 痛点：经济转型中传统存量消费饱和，需求侧扩大消费不现实；供应链面临优化升级挑战，需解决韧性与安全问题。

3. 解决方案：供应链创新创造新价值，通过供给侧传递价值；政府推动“人工智能+”行动提供技术方案；绿色低碳方向如构建可持续发展生态，解决环境责任问题。

平台商可关注供应链转型需求和平台运营方向。

1. 需求：商业对供应链数字化、智能化、绿色化需求增强，如装备制造业PMI高显示高端化趋势；平台需支持价值传递和消费实现。

2. 最新做法：供应链历经八年发展，优化升级向国际化、韧性与安全迈进；政府“人工智能+”行动推动平台招商和运营管理创新。

3. 风向规避：传统消费饱和风险下，平台应融入绿色理念，规避环境责任问题；供应链成熟过程提示运营管理需关注数字化和可持续。

研究者可关注产业动向和政策启示。

1. 新动向：供应链转型八年历程，从创新、自主可控到优化升级，向数字化、智能化、绿色化发展；产业结构高端化加速，装备制造业PMI超平均水平。

2. 新问题：经济转型痛点在于传统消费饱和，供给侧如何创造新价值；城镇化率和服务业发展空间带来增长挑战。

3. 政策建议：政府推动“人工智能+”行动，供应链赋能新质生产力；绿色低碳三重境界提供可持续发展启示，建议构建生态圈责任。

4. 商业模式：价值创造通过供给侧供应链创新实现，传递和放大价值；数字经济比重提升显示新商业模型趋势。

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Quick Summary

China's high-quality economic development is characterized by four key dimensions.

1. Steady growth with momentum: GDP grew 5.2% in 2023 and 5.3% in Q1 2024, with Q2 expected to exceed 5%, averaging about 5.2% for the first half. Over the next 5-10 years, growth is projected to remain between 4-5%, supported by a per capita GDP of $12,000, an urbanization rate of 66.16% (increasing by 1.2 percentage points annually), a services sector accounting for 54% of GDP (with room for expansion), and technological advancement.

2. Moving up the value chain: The digital economy accounted for 41.5% of GDP in 2022, while the PMI for equipment manufacturing reached 51% and exceeded 52% for advanced technology manufacturing. After eight years of evolution, supply chains are maturing through digitalization, smart technology, green transformation, and internationalization. High-end products like machinery and automobiles are gaining international competitiveness.

3. Creating new value: A key challenge in economic transition is the saturation of traditional consumption, requiring supply-side innovation to generate new value. The government's "AI Plus" initiative emphasizes value creation over mere efficiency gains.

4. Green and low-carbon sustainability: This involves three levels: energy conservation and emissions reduction, developing green industries and products, and fostering an ecological mindset that pursues harmony between humans and nature, building a sustainable ecosystem through supply chains.

Brands should focus on consumption trends and product premiumization.

1. Consumption trends: The urbanization rate reached 66.16% in 2023, growing 1.2 percentage points annually, with nearly 200 million people yet to move to cities, driving sustained consumption growth. The services sector accounts for about 54% of GDP, with a target to reach 60-65%, creating new consumption scenarios.

2. Product R&D: The high-end transformation of industrial structure is accelerating, with PMI for equipment manufacturing at 51% and advanced technology manufacturing above 52%, boosting the development and international competitiveness of premium products like machinery, engineering equipment, and automobiles.

3. Supply chain impact: Supply chains are transitioning toward digitalization, intelligence, and green practices, creating new value for consumers. The government's "AI Plus" initiative may influence brand channel strategies and pricing.

Sellers should monitor market growth and policy directions for opportunities.

1. Growth markets: Urbanization is unlocking consumption potential from nearly 200 million people, while the services sector has significant room for expansion. High PMI in equipment manufacturing indicates strong market demand. The digital economy, valued at over 50 trillion yuan, offers new commercial scenarios.

2. Policy insights: The government's work report promotes the "AI Plus" initiative, prioritizing supply chain innovation for value creation. After eight years of transformation, supply chains have evolved from self-sufficiency to optimization, offering collaboration and support insights.

3. Opportunity alerts: Amid saturation in traditional consumption, supply chain innovation creates new value and business models. The green and low-carbon direction, including energy savings and green industries, presents risks to avoid and sustainable development opportunities.

Factories should focus on demand for high-end products and digitalization trends.

1. Product demand: PMI for equipment manufacturing (51%) and advanced technology manufacturing (over 52%) reflect strong market demand for premium products. Industrial structure optimization is driving high-end production in machinery, engineering equipment, and automobiles.

2. Business opportunities: Rising urbanization and services sector development open new markets. Supply chain shifts toward digitalization, intelligence, and green practices suggest opportunities in e-commerce and smart manufacturing, such as value creation through the "AI Plus" initiative.

3. Green direction: The three tiers of green and low-carbon development—energy conservation, green industries, and sustainable products—require integrating eco-friendly concepts into production design, with supply chains building a new ecosystem.

Service providers should track industry trends and client pain points for solutions.

1. Trends: The digital economy's share of GDP reached 41.5% and is rising. Supply chains are maturing through digitalization, intelligence, and green transformation, with tech advances like "AI Plus" acting as new growth drivers.

2. Pain points: Traditional consumption is saturated, making demand-side expansion unrealistic. Supply chains face optimization challenges, requiring solutions for resilience and security.

3. Solutions: Supply chain innovation creates new value transmitted via the supply side. The government's "AI Plus" initiative offers technical solutions, while green and low-carbon directions address environmental responsibilities by building a sustainable ecosystem.

Platform operators should align with supply chain transformation needs and operational directions.

1. Demand: Businesses increasingly require digital, intelligent, and green supply chains, as seen in high PMI for equipment manufacturing indicating premiumization. Platforms must support value delivery and consumption realization.

2. Latest practices: After eight years of development, supply chains are optimizing for internationalization, resilience, and security. The government's "AI Plus" initiative drives innovation in merchant recruitment and platform management.

3. Risk mitigation: Amid risks from saturated traditional consumption, platforms should integrate green concepts to avoid environmental liabilities. Supply chain maturity highlights the need for digital and sustainable operations management.

Researchers should examine industrial shifts and policy implications.

1. New trends: Supply chains have evolved over eight years from innovation and self-sufficiency to optimization, advancing in digitalization, intelligence, and green practices. Industrial structure is premiumizing rapidly, with equipment manufacturing PMI exceeding averages.

2. New issues: Economic transition faces pain points like saturated traditional consumption, raising questions about how the supply side can create new value. Urbanization and services sector growth present developmental challenges.

3. Policy suggestions: The government's "AI Plus" initiative empowers new quality productive forces via supply chains. The three-tier green and low-carbon framework offers sustainability insights, recommending ecosystem responsibility.

4. Business models: Value creation is achieved through supply-side innovation, with value transmission and amplification. The rising share of the digital economy signals trends in new business models.

Disclaimer: The "Quick Summary" content is entirely generated by AI. Please exercise discretion when interpreting the information. For issues or corrections, please email run@ebrun.com .

I am a Brand Seller Factory Service Provider Marketplace Seller Researcher Read it again.

日前，由中国物流与采购联合会主办，中国物流与采购联合会公共采购分会、采购与供应链管理专委会共同承办的第五届国有企业数智化采购与智慧供应链论坛在北京举行。中国物流与采购联合会副会长蔡进出席并致辞，他总结了中国经济的高质量发展具有以下四个基本内涵与特征，他提到，高质量发展与供应链转型密不可分，这是摆在国有企业面前的头等任务。

以下为演讲全文：

尊敬的各位领导、各位来宾，

首先，我代表中国物流与采购联合会向到会的每位来宾表示欢迎和感谢。

今天大会的主题是“新质引领链创未来”，借此机会，我想和大家交流一下有关“高质量发展”一些心得体会，这与供应链转型升级密不可分。无论是推动供应链的数字化、智慧化还是绿色化，最终目标都是为了实现中国经济的高质量发展，这是摆在国有企业面前的头等任务。

总体来看，中国经济的高质量发展具有以下四个基本内涵与特征。

第一，稳中有增是中国高质量发展的基本格局。当前，中国经济正面临转型期，很多领域都遇到了不小的挑战。那么，应当如何看待中国经济的增长问题呢？2023年，我国全年国内生产总值比上年增长5.2%；今年一季度，国内生产总值同比增长5.3%。本月中旬，国家统计局将发布二季度数据，二季度保持在5%以上的增长率应该已成定局。上半年总体保持在5.2%左右的增长水平也是大概率事件，因为我国制造业采购经理指数（PMI）今年上半年平均值为49.7%，比去年同期高出0.9个百分点。

当前，大家都很关心未来中国经济是否还将保持持续增速？我认为，中国经济在未来5到10年保持适度水平增长，是完全有基础和条件的。主要有四个依据：一是中国经济人均GDP已经达到1.2万美元。从国际发展经验来看，一个国家的人均GDP水平位于1.2万-2万美元区间，是这个国家潜在增长率释放最为集中的时期，而中国目前正处于潜在增长率不断释放的过程中。二是我国的城镇化水平在2023年为66.16%，比2022年提高1.2个百分点。有专家表示，一个国家的城镇化率处于30％-70％是一个加快增长的区间。按照每年提高1.2个百分点的算法，10年之内我们就能达到80%。同时，目前我国农村常住人口为4.7亿人，近两亿待进城人口作为一个巨大的消费群体，能够拉动中国经济的持续性增长，这意味着在城镇化率方面我们还有很大的提升空间。三是服务业发展的支撑作用具备足够条件。目前服务业占GDP比重约为54%左右，要达到60-65%的区间还有一定的提升空间。四是科技进步的推动作用。在中国高质量发展过程中，科学技术的发展对中国经济的赋能作用越来越明显。基于上述因素，面对经济转型的大背景，尽管总量基数不断增大，未来中国经济保持4-5%的增长率是完全有基础有条件的。

第二，迈向中高端是中国高质量发展的基本趋势。迈向中高端具有四个特征：一是数字经济含量在经济中的比重不断提升。2022年我国数字经济的产值超过50万亿元，占GDP比重达41.5%。数字经济发展越来越快，数字经济含量越来越大。二是产业结构高端化进程加快。6月份装备制造业的PMI指数为51%，先进技术制造业的PMI指数超52％，远高于且持续高于制造业的PMI平均水平。反映出产业结构在不断优化中迈向中高端。三是生产组织方式向供应链转型升级过程不断成熟。从2016年国家宏观层面推动供应链发展已历经八年，从创新、自主可控、韧性与安全，再到如今的优化升级，供应链始终朝着数字化、智能化、绿色化、国际化等方向不断发展、走向成熟，这是经济高端化发展的最大支撑力之一。四是我国高端化产品在国际市场中的竞争实力不断增强。从过去我国大量出口服装等纺织类初级产品，到近几年转变为机械、工程装备、汽车等产品，竞争实力得到不断增强。

第三，创造新价值是中国高质量发展的必由之路。在经济转型阶段，一个最大的痛点就是传统的存量消费已经饱和。因此要想实现高质量发展，仅仅从需求侧扩大消费来推动经济转型高质量发展是不现实的。必须要从供给侧做价值创造的事情。就是要推进供应链创新。从价值创造的角度讲，所谓供应链就是创造价值、传递价值、实现价值和放大价值的过程。所有价值尤其是新的价值创造，需要通过供给侧而非消费侧来实现。同时还要通过供应链方式连接流通，把价值传导给消费者，通过消费不断实现与放大其价值。

今年的政府工作报告也为我们指明了方向，供应链赋能要开展“人工智能+”行动。过去的“互联网+”的价值导向是提高效率、降低成本，而“AI+”的价值导向则是创造新价值。在高质量发展过程中，创造新价值的核心就是供应链的不断创新和发展，而供应链的创新与发展，本身就是赋能新质生产力的一个通道。

第四，绿色低碳可持续是中国高质量发展的根本方向。我们未来要发展的就是绿色低碳可持续的经济，有三重境界：第一重境界是节能减排，真正的节约能源、降低能耗、减少污染。第二重境界是形成绿色产业和绿色产品，推动中国经济进一步高质量发展；第三重境界是形成绿色理念。绿色理念是由以自我为中心的发展转变为以利他为生态圈的发展，不能只考虑自我规模的扩张和效率的提升，还要思考应当承担怎样的使命与责任，那就是通过供应链来构建可持续发展的新生态，为创造新价值作出贡献。在这一发展过程中，不仅要考虑人类自身发展，更应当置身于整个自然环境中去考量可持续生存与发展的命题，追求人与自然的和谐共生的最高境界。

谢谢大家！

文章来源：亿邦动力