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中国MRO第一股震坤行 25亿美元市值被低估了吗?

张睿 2023-12-16 20:21
张睿 2023/12/16 20:21

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本文核心介绍中国MRO赴美上市第一股震坤行的上市情况与行业前景,核心干货信息如下:

1. 震坤行核心基本信息:该公司2014年成立于上海,为能源、建筑、汽车等多行业提供一站式MRO采购履约解决方案,过去累计融资超60亿元居行业第一,投资方包括腾讯、钟鼎资本等多家知名机构。2023年12月在纽交所上市,首日收盘价15.5美元,最新市值25亿美元。

2. 行业增长情况:中国MRO市场2022年规模达30041亿元,预计2027年增长至39766亿元,在线MRO复合增速达29.2%,在线渗透率从7.8%提升至21.3%,增长空间十分广阔。

3. 震坤行业绩与规划:2020-2022年GMV复合增速37.3%,2023前三季度GMV79亿元同比增17.5%,毛利率持续攀升亏损大幅缩窄,明年年初将上线美国独立站拓展海外市场。

本文包含MRO赛道发展趋势与品牌合作机会的干货信息,符合品牌商关注方向,总结如下:

1. 行业与消费趋势:中国MRO整体市场保持稳步增长,在线一站式采购需求爆发式增长,预计2022到2027年在线MRO复合增速达29.2%,在线渗透率从7.8%提升至21.3%,线上采购已经成为明确的行业趋势,下游覆盖机械电子、能源、汽车、建筑等多个高需求行业,市场空间充足。

2. 渠道合作机会:头部平台震坤行上市后将把30%的募资用于扩充行家精选产品线,目前已经布局超38万个SKU,其中包含34.7万个自有品牌SKU,正在寻找优质品牌合作,是工业类品牌商拓展B端客户的核心优质渠道。

3. 竞争提示:目前行业已经聚集京东工业、鑫方盛、西域等多个头部玩家,行业集中度逐步提升,品牌商绑定头部平台可以获得更稳定的流量与履约支持,提升自身市场份额。

本文披露了MRO赛道的增长机会、头部平台动态与风险提示,干货总结如下:

1. 赛道增长机会:中国在线MRO采购市场未来5年复合年增长率达29.2%,2027年市场规模将达到8470亿元,当前在线渗透率仅7.8%,属于典型的高增长蓝海赛道,下游工业客户对一站式采购的需求持续提升,头部平台客户数量从2020年的3万家增长到2023年的6.4万家,需求增量十分可观。

2. 平台发展带来的合作机会:震坤行上市后募资将用于扩充品类、升级供应链、开展战略投资与收购,同时明年年初将上线美国独立站拓展海外市场,上游工业品类卖家可以依托头部平台,对接海量国内工业客户,还可以借助平台布局拓展海外客户,获得流量与履约支持。

3. 风险提示:当前MRO在线赛道竞争激烈,已经有多个头部玩家布局,中小卖家需要绑定头部平台才能获得生存空间,且头部平台目前仍处于亏损阶段,合作过程中需要关注平台的盈利进展与现金流情况。

本文为工厂带来MRO赛道的商业机会与数字化转型启示,干货总结如下:

1. 采购端的降本机会:MRO物资是所有工业生产企业的必备物资,当前一站式在线MRO采购已经十分成熟,工厂可以通过头部MRO平台实现集中采购,降低自身采购管理成本,提升采购效率,平台的透明定价与及时交付也能解决工厂传统MRO采购的痛点。

2. 供给端的商业机会:头部平台震坤行正在大力发展行家精选产品线与自有品牌,目前已经有超34万个自有品牌SKU,需要具备研发、生产优势的工厂对接合作,具备产能优势与品控能力的工厂,可以成为平台的供应商或代工厂,对接平台的6.4万家工业客户,获得稳定订单。

3. 数字化与电商转型启示:震坤行通过搭建全国30个总仓、96个中转站,布局智能售货机实现高效履约,通过数字化系统管理近40万个SKU,深耕供应链提升效率,工厂推进电商转型可以学习该模式,聚焦供应链效率升级,用数字化能力降本提效。

本文为MRO赛道相关服务商披露了行业趋势与客户需求,干货总结如下:

1. 行业发展趋势:中国MRO整体市场规模稳步增长,在线采购赛道保持近30%的年复合增长率,目前头部玩家已经启动资本化进程,震坤行成功上市,京东工业也递交了招股申请,行业正朝着集中化、数字化、电商化方向发展,未来会释放大量的专业服务需求。

2. 核心客户痛点:MRO采购端对SKU丰富度、履约交付效率、价格透明度要求很高,头部平台上市后需要持续升级供应链能力、数字化服务能力,还要拓展海外市场,对仓配运营服务、数字化技术开发、跨境建站服务、营销获客服务都有明确的需求增量。

3. 业务机会方向:服务商可以围绕头部MRO平台的核心需求,针对性推出仓配运营、系统开发、跨境服务、获客运营等解决方案,抓住行业增长红利,震坤行上市后明确投入供应链升级与海外拓展,已经带来了明确的服务需求增量。

本文以震坤行上市为案例,给MRO领域平台商带来了模式参考与风险提示,干货总结如下:

1. 市场与客户核心需求:当前工业客户对一站式MRO在线采购的需求快速增长,核心需求聚焦在三个方面,分别是丰富全的SKU品类、透明公允的价格、及时可靠的履约交付,平台需要长期深耕供应链,搭建高效的履约网络才能满足客户需求,建立核心竞争力。

2. 头部平台的可参考做法:震坤行的做法值得参考,通过搭建覆盖核心城市的全国仓配网络,布局智能交付设备满足现场交付需求,同时大力发展自有品牌提升毛利率,通过上市引入知名股东背书获得融资,上市后明确募资投向,还提前布局海外市场寻找第二增长曲线。

3. 风险规避方向:当前MRO在线赛道竞争激烈,多个头部玩家同时冲击上市,行业虽然增长快但头部玩家目前仍未实现盈利,平台运营中需要关注成本控制,持续提升毛利率,逐步缩窄亏损,避免出现现金流风险。

本文披露了中国MRO在线采购赛道的最新产业动向,对研究者的研究方向有较高参考价值,干货总结如下:

1. 产业最新动向:2023年是中国MRO在线赛道的资本化元年,震坤行成为中国MRO赴美上市第一股,京东工业也已经向港交所递交招股申请,行业资本化进程明显加速,当前在线MRO渗透率仅7.8%,预计2027年提升至21.3%,未来5年复合增速达29.2%,是工业电商领域少有的高增长赛道。

2. 商业模式分析:中国MRO在线平台的一站式采购履约模式,对标海外成熟头部企业Grainger的成熟模式,目前国内头部平台处于投入扩张期,震坤行通过布局自有品牌提升毛利率,通过数字化仓配升级降低履约成本,已经实现亏损逐年缩窄,当前震坤行市值25亿美元,对比同阶段印度同类企业Moglix的26亿美元估值,仍存在增长空间。

3. 待研究的新问题:国内MRO在线平台何时能实现全面盈利,头部玩家拓展海外市场的落地效果如何,在线渗透率提升后行业格局会如何变化,都值得研究者后续持续跟踪研究。

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Quick Summary

This article provides an overview of the listing and industry outlook for ZKH Group, the first Chinese MRO (Maintenance, Repair and Operations) platform to list on a U.S. stock exchange. Key takeaways are as follows:

1. Core background of ZKH: Founded in 2014 and headquartered in Shanghai, ZKH offers one-stop MRO procurement and fulfillment solutions for clients across industries including energy, construction and automotive. To date, it has raised over 6 billion yuan in total funding, more than any other competitor in the sector, with backers including Tencent and JD Capital. The company listed on the New York Stock Exchange in December 2023, closing its first trading day at $15.5 per share, with a current market capitalization of $2.5 billion.

2. Industry growth: China's overall MRO market reached 3.0041 trillion yuan in 2022, and is projected to grow to 3.9766 trillion yuan by 2027. The online MRO segment is expected to achieve a 29.2% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over this period, with online penetration rising from 7.8% to 21.3%, indicating significant room for expansion.

3. ZKH's performance and expansion plans: ZKH's GMV recorded a 37.3% CAGR between 2020 and 2022. In the first three quarters of 2023, its GMV hit 7.9 billion yuan, up 17.5% year-on-year. Its gross margin has continued to climb while its net loss has narrowed substantially. The company plans to launch an independent U.S. website to expand into overseas markets in early 2024.

This article outlines key trends for the MRO sector and partnership opportunities for brands, aligned with the priorities of brand owners. Key takeaways are as follows:

1. Industry and consumer trends: China's overall MRO market is growing steadily, while demand for one-stop online procurement is surging. The online MRO segment is projected to post a 29.2% CAGR between 2022 and 2027, with online penetration climbing from 7.8% to 21.3%, confirming that online procurement has become a clear industry trend. Downstream demand comes from multiple high-need sectors including machinery, electronics, energy, automotive and construction, creating abundant market opportunities.

2. Channel partnership opportunities: Leading platform ZKH plans to allocate 30% of its post-IPO fundraising to expanding its "Expert Selection" product line. It currently offers more than 380,000 SKUs, 347,000 of which are under private labels, and is actively seeking partnerships with high-quality brands. This makes ZKH a prime channel for industrial brands looking to expand their B2B customer base.

3. Competitive outlook: The sector is already home to multiple major players including JD Industrial, Xinfangsheng and EASYMRO, and industry concentration is gradually rising. Partnering with leading platforms can provide brands with more stable traffic, fulfillment support and increased market share.

This article shares growth opportunities, key platform updates and risk warnings for the MRO sector. Key takeaways are as follows:

1. Sector growth opportunities: China's online MRO procurement market is set to achieve a 29.2% CAGR over the next five years, reaching 847 billion yuan in 2027. Current online penetration stands at just 7.8%, making it a typical high-growth blue ocean market. Downstream industrial demand for one-stop procurement continues to rise: the customer base of leading platforms has grown from 30,000 in 2020 to 64,000 in 2023, indicating substantial incremental demand.

2. Partnership opportunities from platform development: ZKH will use its post-IPO proceeds to expand product categories, upgrade supply chains and pursue strategic investments and acquisitions. It will also launch an independent U.S. website to enter overseas markets in early 2024. Upstream industrial product sellers can leverage leading platforms to access a large base of domestic industrial clients, and expand into overseas markets through the platform's ecosystem, gaining access to traffic and fulfillment support.

3. Risk warnings: Competition in the online MRO sector is already fierce, with multiple leading players already established. Small and medium-sized sellers need to partner with top platforms to secure viable growth. In addition, most leading platforms are still unprofitable, so sellers should closely monitor platforms' profitability progress and cash flow health when establishing partnerships.

This article outlines business opportunities and digital transformation insights for factories in the MRO sector. Key takeaways are as follows:

1. Procurement cost reduction opportunities: MRO materials are essential for all industrial manufacturing companies. One-stop online MRO procurement is now a fully mature model. Factories can leverage leading MRO platforms to conduct centralized procurement, cut internal procurement management costs and improve procurement efficiency. Transparent pricing and on-time delivery from platforms also solve common pain points of traditional MRO procurement for factories.

2. Business opportunities on the supply side: Leading platform ZKH is aggressively expanding its "Expert Selection" product line and private label portfolio, which already includes more than 340,000 SKUs. It is actively seeking partnerships with factories that have strong R&D and production capabilities. Factories with competitive production capacity and quality control can become suppliers or contract manufacturers for the platform, gaining access to ZKH's 64,000 industrial clients and securing stable orders.

3. Insights for digital and e-commerce transformation: ZKH has built a nationwide logistics network comprising 30 main warehouses and 96 transfer stations, and deployed smart vending machines to enable efficient fulfillment. It also uses digital systems to manage nearly 400,000 SKUs, focusing on supply chain improvement to boost efficiency. Factories pursuing e-commerce transformation can learn from this model by focusing on supply chain efficiency upgrades and leveraging digital capabilities to cut costs and improve performance.

This article shares industry trends and client demand insights for service providers operating in the MRO sector. Key takeaways are as follows:

1. Industry development trends: China's overall MRO market is growing steadily, while the online procurement segment posts a nearly 30% compound annual growth rate. Leading players have now entered the capitalization phase: ZKH has successfully gone public, and JD Industrial has also submitted its prospectus. The sector is developing toward greater concentration, digitalization and e-commerce integration, which will unlock substantial demand for professional services going forward.

2. Core client pain points and demand: MRO buyers have very high requirements for SKU breadth, fulfillment efficiency and price transparency. After going public, leading platforms need to continuously upgrade their supply chain and digital service capabilities, while expanding into overseas markets. This creates clear incremental demand for warehouse and fulfillment operation services, digital technology development, cross-border website building services and marketing and customer acquisition services.

3. Business opportunity directions: Service providers can develop targeted solutions for warehouse and fulfillment operations, system development, cross-border services and customer acquisition operations to meet the core needs of leading MRO platforms, and capture the sector's growth dividend. ZKH's clear post-IPO commitments to supply chain upgrades and overseas expansion have already generated clear incremental demand for services.

Using ZKH's IPO as a case study, this article shares business model references and risk warnings for MRO platform operators. Key takeaways are as follows:

1. Core market and customer demand: Industrial clients' demand for one-stop online MRO procurement is growing rapidly, with three core priorities: a comprehensive range of SKUs, transparent and fair pricing, and reliable on-time fulfillment. Platforms must invest long-term in supply chain development and build an efficient fulfillment network to meet customer demand and build core competitiveness.

2. Best practices from leading platforms: ZKH's approach offers a useful reference. It has built a national warehouse and delivery network covering core Chinese cities, deployed smart delivery equipment to meet on-site delivery requirements, prioritized private label development to boost gross margin, secured funding and credibility from well-known investors via an IPO, clearly defined the use of IPO proceeds, and has proactively entered overseas markets to find a second growth curve.

3. Risk mitigation guidance: The online MRO sector is highly competitive, with multiple leading players pursuing IPOs at the same time. While the sector is growing fast, most leading players have not yet achieved profitability. Platform operators must focus on cost control, continuously improve gross margin, gradually narrow losses, and avoid cash flow risks.

This article shares the latest industry developments in China's online MRO procurement sector, offering valuable reference for research. Key takeaways are as follows:

1. Latest industry developments: 2023 marks the first year of capitalization for China's online MRO sector, with ZKH becoming the first Chinese MRO player to list in the U.S. and JD Industrial submitting its prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, marking a clear acceleration of industry capitalization. Current online penetration of the MRO sector stands at just 7.8%, and is projected to rise to 21.3% by 2027, with a 29.2% CAGR over the next five years, making it one of the few high-growth segments in industrial e-commerce.

2. Business model analysis: China's online MRO platforms operate a one-stop procurement and fulfillment model that mirrors the mature model of global industry leader Grainger. Leading domestic platforms are currently in the investment and expansion phase. ZKH has expanded private labels to boost gross margin, and upgraded digital warehousing and delivery to cut fulfillment costs, achieving steady annual narrowing of its losses. ZKH currently has a market capitalization of $2.5 billion, which leaves room for upside compared to the $2.6 billion valuation of Indian peer Moglix at a similar development stage.

3. New research questions: Key open questions that warrant continued follow-up research include when domestic MRO online platforms will achieve full profitability, how the overseas expansion efforts of leading players will perform in practice, and how industry concentration will evolve as online penetration increases.

Disclaimer: The "Quick Summary" content is entirely generated by AI. Please exercise discretion when interpreting the information. For issues or corrections, please email run@ebrun.com .

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文丨张睿

【亿邦原创】中国MRO赴美上市第一股终于来了。

北京时间2023年12月15日晚间,中国MRO采购服务平台震坤行正式在纽约证券交易所挂牌上市,股票代码为“ZKH”。

交易首日,震坤行开盘价16.24美元,较发行价涨4.77%,盘中最高价18美元,收盘价与发行价相同,为15.5美元,最新市值25亿美元。

震坤行创始人、董事长兼CEO陈龙在上市致辞中表示:“我们来参加上市仪式,不只是来庆祝的,而是来做出郑重承诺:成为一家公众公司,我们将承担更多的社会责任,更加的公开透明合规,用更高的标准进行公司治理。无论是给股东更好的回报,还是成就员工和合作伙伴,都需要我们坚持以客户为中心,持续供应链深耕,为客户创造更大的价值。”

震坤行成立于2014年,总部位于上海,为能源、建筑、汽车等行业客户提供一站式MRO采购和履约解决方案。作为中国MRO行业代表性企业,震坤行过去累计融资金额超过60亿,居行业之首,投资方包括钟鼎资本、元生资本、腾讯、老虎基金、加拿大养老基金(CPPIB)、经纬创投、君联资本、云锋基金、中国国有企业结构调整基金、中投、富达基金(FMR)、壳牌等。

该行业的其他公司有京东工业、鑫方盛、西域、工品一号等,京东工业也于2023年3月30日向香港联交所递交招股申请。

震坤行的上市对中国MRO行业具有标志性意义,但25亿美元的市值可能被低估了。

01

IPO占位:募资7130万美元

震坤行在本次IPO中总计发行400万股美国存托股票(ADS),发行价为每股ADS 15.50美元,德意志银行、华兴资本和中金公司担任本次IPO的联席主承销商,承销商另享有60万股ADS的超额配售权。这意味着,震坤行至多通过本次IPO募集7130万美元(若计“绿鞋机制”)。

震坤行在招股书中表示IPO募集所得资金净额的约30%将用于进一步扩大业务,尤其是继续发展行家精选产品线;约30%用于加强供应链能力和进一步提高履约效率;约30%用于潜在战略投资和收购;剩下部分则用于一般公司用途,包括营运资金需求、投资研发以继续建设基础设施和改善数字服务,以及拓展海外市场。

值得一提的是,震坤行现有股东腾讯以及加拿大养老基金(Canada Pension Plan Investment Board,以下简称“CPPIB”)在IPO发行中参与认购,以示对震坤行未来长期价值的看好以及对MRO赛道的认可——其中,CPPIB有意认购至多价值1000万美元的ADS,腾讯则有意认购至多价值500万美元的ADS。

与震坤行过去的几轮融资相比,上市募集的7130万美元带有更多“占位”之意。

2020年10月,震坤行工业超市获得3.15亿美元E轮股权融资,由云锋基金领投,中国国有企业结构调整基金(“国调基金”)、中投海外联合领投,普洛斯建发基金、建发新兴投资跟投,老股东钟鼎资本、元生资本、腾讯、老虎基金、经纬中国、君联资本、同创伟业持续跟投。该笔融资是中国工业用品领域最大一笔单轮融资。

2022年3月,震坤行发行了金额总额为2.218亿美元的Series F可转换票据,投方包括加拿大养老基金、富达投资(Fidelity Investment Inc.)等。

招股书显示,IPO前,震坤行董事会主席兼首席执行官陈龙作为个人股东持有16.2%普通股,以及通过Phoenix ZKH Limited持有16.2%普通股,但通过管理层股东的各持股实体授权,陈龙持有总投票权的50%以上。钟鼎资本、元生资本、腾讯及加拿大养老基金分别持股14.9%、10.2%、9.4%、6.4%。

IPO后,陈龙持股为15.8%,通过Phoenix ZKH Limited持股15.8%,钟鼎资本、元生资本、腾讯及加拿大养老基金分别持股14.6%、10.0%、9.2%、6.2%。

02

横向比较:震坤行被低估了吗?

MRO意为维护、维修和运营(Maintenance、Repair & Operations)所需物料,是诸多行业,尤其是工业生产企业必备物资。

根据CIC报告,中国是世界上工业产值最大的国家,也是唯一一个拥有联合国国际标准产业分类中全部工业门类的国家。根据中国国家统计局的数据,2022年中国第二产业产值达到48.3万亿人民币,约占全球工业产值的28.2%。预计中国第二产业产值将以5.7%的复合年增长率增长,在2027年达到63.6万亿元人民币。

随着中国企业的数字化转型以及电商化采购的发展,一站式MRO采购需求快速增长,CIC灼识咨询报告显示,中国MRO采购服务的市场规模从2016年的20747亿元增长到2022年的30041亿元,预计到2027年将达到39766亿元,与2022年相比复合年增长率为5.8%。与此同时,中国在线MRO采购服务的市场规模在2022年达到2354亿元,从2022年到2027年的复合增长率为29.2%,预计在2027年将达到8470亿元人民币。2022年的在线渗透率为7.8%,预计2027年将达到21.3%。

从全球看,以丰富的产品、透明的价格,和及时可靠的履约交付为特点的一站式MRO采购,已经成为成熟的商业模式。以MRO行业开创者Grainger为例,历史超过80年,全球拥有600多家分店、18家配送中心和庞大销售网络,向全球180万客户提供种类繁多的MRO产品,Grainger 2022年收入为152亿美元,目前市值超过400亿美元。

另外两家上市公司,美国的Fastenal、日本的MonotaRo市值分别为366亿美元、54亿美元。

如果说Grainger、Fastenal、MonotaRo、Wurth均已处于收入利润稳定增长的成熟阶段,那么印度Moglix与震坤行更具比较价值。这家成立于2015年的公司,2022年收入为3亿美元,目前处于亏损状态,其2022年1月完成一轮2.5亿美元融资时,估值为26亿美元。

可见,目前震坤行25亿美元市值还有增长空间。

03

业绩概览:GMV 94亿元

明年美国独立站将上线

招股书显示,2020年至2022年,震坤行的GMV分别约为50亿元、86亿元和94亿元,复合年增长率为37.3%;今年前三季度,震坤行的GMV约为79亿元,较2022年同期增长17.5%。震坤行的净收入分别为46.86亿元、76.55亿元和83.15亿元。今年前三季度,震坤行的净收入为62.77亿元,均较2022年同期有显著提升。

2020至2022年,震坤行毛利率分别为14.5%、13.6%和15.8%,到了2023年前三季度,公司毛利率为16.5%,毛利率水平整体攀升。得益于毛利率提升、管理费用率和履约费用率下降,2023年前三季度亏损同比缩窄42%。

震坤行提供的产品主要包含备品备件、通用耗材、行政物资、加工制造、化学品等五大品类,累计32条产品线。目前震坤行特有的“行家精选”产品线已管理超过 38.3万个SKU,其中包括34.7万个自有品牌产品的SKU,例如专注 PPE 细分市场的全资子品牌“安丹达”等。截至2023年前三季度,震坤行平台精选产品线的GMV贡献占比为8.2%,同期自主品牌产品的GMV贡献为5.0%。

客户角度,震坤行的客户数量从2020年的3万多家增加到2022年的5.8万多家,截至2023年9月30日,客户增长至6.4万家。从客户所属行业看,在2022年的前500名客户中,GMV行业贡献值分别为:机械和电子行业24%,能源行业22%,资源行业21%(包括钢铁和有色金属、化工、建筑材料和矿产),建筑行业5%(包括建筑和基础设施),汽车行业12%,其他行业16%。

截至2023年9月30日,震坤行在上海、武汉、成都、西安等中国主要城市拥有30个全国总仓,总建筑面积约20万平方米;运营96个中转站,面积约为52,000平方米。震坤行还部署了约4000台 EVM 智能售货机,实现客户现场按需交付订单。

此前,震坤行董事长陈龙曾对亿邦动力表示,震坤行正在积极探索智能制造,并且将同制造业伙伴一起,向海外发展。据悉,明年年初震坤行的美国独立站即将上线,

文章来源:亿邦动力

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FAQ回顾

震坤行2023年上市的基本情况是什么?

震坤行于2023年12月15日在纽约证券交易所上市,股票代码ZKH,发行价15.5美元,开盘价16.24美元,首日收盘价与发行价持平,最新市值25亿美元。

震坤行的主要业务和客户群体有哪些?

震坤行为能源、建筑、汽车等行业提供一站式MRO采购服务,拥有6.4万家客户,产品涵盖备品备件、通用耗材等五大品类,32条产品线,管理超过38.3万个SKU。

中国MRO市场规模和发展趋势如何?

2022年中国MRO采购服务市场规模达30041亿元,预计2027年达39766亿元,复合年增长率5.8%。在线MRO市场规模2354亿元,预计2027年达8470亿元,复合增长率29.2%。

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