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子公司半年补税1.2亿 隔膜龙头恩捷股份业绩刚复苏就要还旧账

于莹 2026-06-30 13:32
于莹 2026/06/30 13:32

邦小白快读

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本文核心是披露锂电隔膜龙头恩捷股份业绩复苏期曝出的税务和经营风险,干货信息如下:

1.核心事件:2025年上半年恩捷股份三家子公司完成自查补税,合计补缴税款加滞纳金超1.2亿元,滞纳周期约两年,属于历史遗留问题,本次仅为自查补税无行政处罚,补税将分别计入2025、2026年当期损益,会影响对应年度的归母净利润。

2.暴露问题:本次补税暴露出恩捷股份高速扩张背后的内控体系短板,除此之外公司还面临近96.5亿元短债压顶,货币资金仅28.89亿元,资金缺口超67亿元,同时应收账款高企,现金流压力巨大。

3.行业现状:恩捷股份刚经历行业产能过剩价格战,2025年业绩刚扭亏为盈进入复苏阶段,但仍面临新一轮扩产过剩、固态电池技术迭代、同行竞争等多重风险。

本文对新能源材料领域品牌商有较多可参考干货,具体如下:

1.合规经营警示:2025年起国家将锂电池等新三样列为税务重点监管领域,严查违规享受研发费用加计扣除优惠的行为,当前锂电隔膜业内存在将生产端费用包装为研发投入的潜规则,恩捷股份补税事件提醒品牌商必须规范研发费用归集,完善内控体系,避免合规风险。

2.行业趋势参考:锂电隔膜行业已经从风口期供不应求转为产能过剩,价格战大幅压缩行业利润,当前落后产能逐步出清,湿法隔膜因储能大电芯普及需求上涨,但是头部品牌再次开启大规模扩产,未来价格反弹持续性存疑。

3.经营启示:快速扩产抓风口能短期做大,但也会暴露内控、资金层面的风险,品牌需要平衡规模扩张和风险管控,提前布局下一代技术应对技术迭代风险。

本文对锂电产业链相关卖家提供了政策、市场、风险等多方面干货,具体如下:

1.政策层面提示:2025年国家税务总局已经明确将锂电池等新三样列为税务重点监管领域,重点查处违规将生产费用计入研发费用骗取税费优惠的行为,卖家需要提前开展税务自查,规范账务处理,避免后续出现大额补税损失。

2.市场机会梳理:当前储能行业314Ah大电芯成为主流,下游客户加速从干法隔膜转向湿法隔膜,带动湿法隔膜市场占比提升至近81%,行业落后产能逐步出清,头部企业业绩已经开始复苏,存在结构性增长机会。

3.风险提示:当前头部企业再次开启大规模扩产,2027-2028年新增产能集中释放后,很可能再次引发价格战,同时固态电池商业化窗口临近,传统隔膜产能存在闲置风险,高速扩张也容易引发资金链断裂风险,卖家需要警惕。

本文对锂电材料生产工厂提供了需求、机会、经营层面的干货,具体如下:

1.生产研发要求:当前锂电湿法隔膜的核心壁垒是高端生产设备,业内普遍存在将生产线调试、工艺优化等生产费用包装为研发投入的违规操作,税务监管收紧后,工厂必须规范研发费用归集,合规享受税费优惠,避免大额补税风险。

2.商业机会梳理:当前储能领域大电芯已经成为主流,对隔膜的稳定性一致性要求更高,带动湿法隔膜需求增长,市场占比从2024年的76.9%提升至2025年的近80.7%,湿法隔膜生产工厂可以把握这波需求增长红利。

3.经营启示:快速扩张抓住行业风口能快速做大,但会拉长管理半径,引发内控漏洞,同时大规模扩产会带来巨大的资金压力,工厂需要平衡产能扩张和自身管理、资金能力,提前布局半固态、固态相关隔膜技术,应对未来技术迭代风险。

本文对面向新能源锂电领域的服务商提供了行业趋势、客户痛点、业务机会等干货,具体如下:

1.行业发展趋势:锂电隔膜行业经历了风口期高速扩张,再到产能过剩价格战,当前处于周期拐点,落后产能出清带动行业集中度提升,湿法隔膜需求随大电芯普及增长,头部企业业绩开始复苏,但头部已经再次开启扩产,未来仍有产能过剩风险,技术层面固态电池是下一代方向,2027年将迎来商业化关键节点。

2.客户核心痛点:锂电企业在多年高速扩张后,普遍存在税务合规性不足、内控体系不完善、资金缺口大、现金流紧张等问题,同时还面临技术迭代、同行竞争的压力,有大量未被满足的服务需求。

3.业务机会参考:服务商可以针对锂电企业的需求,推出税务合规咨询、内控体系建设、融资对接、管理数字化升级等服务,帮助企业平衡扩张和风险管控,也可以围绕固态电池技术研发配套,布局相关服务业务。

本文对新能源产业相关平台商提供了需求、招商、运营层面的干货,具体如下:

1.企业需求梳理:锂电企业在扩张发展过程中,存在税务合规咨询、内控管理升级、融资对接、产能布局对接、技术研发配套等多维度需求,平台可以针对性调整自身服务体系,匹配企业需求,提升平台吸引力。

2.招商方向参考:当前湿法隔膜受益于储能大电芯普及,需求持续增长,头部企业仍在推进产能扩产,同时传统隔膜龙头也在布局半固态、固态电池相关新技术,平台可以围绕这类优质项目开展招商,吸引相关企业落地,提升平台招商质量。

3.运营风险提示:锂电行业周期性极强,当前刚走出价格战就再次进入扩产周期,未来很可能再次出现产能过剩问题,同时技术迭代风险较高,平台在运营过程中需要向企业提示相关风险,引导企业理性扩产,同时推动企业规范合规经营,规避税务等合规风险。

本文对新能源锂电产业研究者提供了产业新动向、新问题、研究启示等多方面素材,具体如下:

1.产业新动向:当前锂电隔膜行业处于周期拐点,落后产能出清后,湿法隔膜受益于储能大电芯普及,需求和市场占比持续提升,头部企业业绩已经实现扭亏复苏,但是头部企业纷纷开启新一轮大规模扩产,2027-2028年产能集中释放后,行业供需格局仍存在较大不确定性,固态电池商业化临近,传统隔膜龙头已经开始布局相关技术。

2.行业新问题:行业高速扩张阶段,普遍存在研发费用归集不合规的潜规则,税务监管收紧后该问题集中暴露,同时快速扩张导致企业内控短板凸显,叠加价格战消耗,头部企业也面临较大的资金链压力,技术迭代也给现有庞大产能带来闲置风险。

3.研究启示:税务监管对新三样的收紧将推动行业合规化发展,后续研究可以重点关注周期性行业规模扩张与风险管控的平衡问题,跟踪技术迭代对现有产业格局的影响,研究龙头企业穿越行业周期的有效路径。

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Quick Summary

This article discloses key tax and operational risks facing leading lithium-ion separator manufacturer Enjie Co., Ltd. amid its performance recovery, with key insights as follows:

1. Core event: Three subsidiaries of Enjie completed voluntary self-inspection and back-tax payment in the first half of 2025, with total back taxes and late fees exceeding 120 million yuan. The late payment period spans approximately two years, and the issue is a legacy problem from previous years. No administrative penalties have been issued for this voluntary back-tax filing. The back-tax payments will be recorded in the current profits and losses of 2025 and 2026 respectively, and will reduce the attributable net profit of the corresponding years.

2. Exposed problems: The back-tax incident reveals internal control weaknesses behind Enjie's high-speed expansion. In addition, the company faces nearly 9.65 billion yuan in short-term debt, with only 2.889 billion yuan in cash on hand, leaving a funding gap of more than 6.7 billion yuan. Combined with high accounts receivable, the company faces enormous cash flow pressure.

3. Industry status: Enjie has just emerged from an industry-wide period of overcapacity and price wars, returning to profitability and entering a recovery phase in 2025. However, it still faces multiple risks including a new round of overcapacity from expansion, technological iteration from solid-state batteries, and intensifying peer competition.

This article provides key takeaways for brand owners in the new energy materials sector, as follows:

1. Compliance warning: Starting in 2025, Chinese authorities have designated lithium batteries and other "new three exports" as key tax supervision targets, cracking down on improper claims of R&D super deduction tax incentives. A widespread unspoken rule in the lithium-ion separator industry is reclassifying production expenses as R&D investment. The Enjie back-tax incident reminds brand owners to standardize R&D expense classification, improve internal control systems, and avoid compliance risks.

2. Industry trend reference: The lithium-ion separator industry has shifted from a boom period of undersupply to overcapacity, and price wars have sharply compressed industry profit margins. While inefficient capacity is gradually being phased out, and demand for wet-process separators is growing driven by the adoption of large energy storage cells, leading brands have already resumed large-scale expansion, calling into question the sustainability of any future price rebound.

3. Operational takeaway: Rapid expansion to capitalize on industry booms can drive short-term scale growth, but also exposes internal control and funding risks. Brands need to balance scale expansion with risk management, and make early布局 for next-generation technologies to mitigate technological iteration risks.

This article provides key insights on policy, market and risks for sellers along the lithium battery supply chain, as follows:

1. Policy warning: In 2025, the State Taxation Administration of China explicitly designated lithium batteries and other "new three exports" as key tax supervision targets, with a focus on cracking down on the fraudulent practice of classifying production expenses as R&D costs to claim tax incentives. Sellers should conduct voluntary tax self-inspections in advance, standardize accounting practices, and avoid large unexpected back-tax losses later.

2. Market opportunity overview: 314Ah large cells have become the mainstream in the energy storage industry, and downstream customers are rapidly shifting from dry-process separators to wet-process separators, pushing wet-process separators' market share to nearly 81%. As inefficient capacity is phased out and leading enterprises have started to recover performance, structural growth opportunities exist in the market.

3. Risk warning: Leading players have already resumed large-scale expansion, and when new capacity comes online in 2027-2028, it is very likely to trigger another round of price wars. Meanwhile, the commercialization window for solid-state batteries is approaching, putting traditional separator capacity at risk of idling. Rapid expansion also increases the risk of capital chain rupture, which sellers should watch for closely.

This article provides key insights on demand, opportunities and operations for lithium-ion material manufacturing factories, as follows:

1. R&D and production requirements: The core barrier for high-end wet-process lithium separators is access to advanced production equipment. A common improper industry practice is reclassifying production expenses such as production line commissioning and process optimization as R&D investment. With tax regulation tightening, factories must standardize R&D expense classification, claim tax incentives compliantly, and avoid the risk of large back-tax payments.

2. Business opportunity overview: Large energy storage cells have now become the industry mainstream, which demand higher stability and consistency from separators, driving growth in wet-process separator demand. Wet-process separators' market share rose from 76.9% in 2024 to nearly 80.7% in 2025, allowing wet-process separator manufacturers to capitalize on this demand growth dividend.

3. Operational takeaway: Rapid expansion to capitalize on industry booms enables fast scale growth, but extends management chains and creates internal control gaps. Large-scale expansion also creates massive funding pressure. Factories need to balance capacity expansion with their own management and funding capabilities, and develop semi-solid and solid-state compatible separator technologies early to prepare for future technological iteration.

This article provides key insights on industry trends, client pain points and business opportunities for service providers serving the new energy lithium battery sector, as follows:

1. Industry development trends: After a boom period of rapid expansion followed by overcapacity and price wars, the lithium separator industry is now at a cyclical inflection point. The phase-out of inefficient capacity has driven higher industry concentration, demand for wet-process separators is growing with the adoption of large cells, and leading firms' performance is recovering. However, leading players have already resumed large-scale expansion, so overcapacity risks remain in the future. Technologically, solid-state batteries are the next-generation direction, and 2027 will be a critical year for their commercialization.

2. Core client pain points: After years of rapid expansion, lithium battery companies generally face issues including insufficient tax compliance, imperfect internal control systems, large funding gaps and tight cash flow. They also face pressure from technological iteration and peer competition, leaving a large amount of unmet demand for professional services.

3. Business opportunity reference: Service providers can develop targeted offerings for lithium battery companies, including tax compliance consulting, internal control system building, financing connection, and digital management upgrades, to help enterprises balance expansion and risk control. Providers can also布局 related service businesses around R&D support for solid-state battery technology.

This article provides key insights on demand, investment promotion and operations for new energy industry platform operators, as follows:

1. Enterprise demand overview: During their expansion and growth, lithium battery enterprises have multi-dimensional demands including tax compliance consulting, internal control upgrade, financing connection, capacity layout matching, and technological R&D support. Platforms can adjust their service systems to match these demands and improve platform attractiveness.

2. Investment promotion direction reference: Wet-process separators are benefiting from sustained demand growth driven by the adoption of large energy storage cells, and leading enterprises are still expanding capacity. Meanwhile, traditional separator leaders are developing new technologies for semi-solid and solid-state batteries. Platforms can focus their investment promotion on these high-quality projects to attract relevant enterprises and improve the quality of their investment pipeline.

3. Operational risk warning: The lithium industry is highly cyclical. It has just emerged from price wars and entered a new expansion cycle, so overcapacity is very likely to reemerge in the future. Technological iteration risk is also high. In daily operations, platforms should remind enterprises of these risks, guide rational capacity expansion, and promote compliant operations to help enterprises avoid tax and other compliance risks.

This article provides materials on new industry developments, emerging issues and research implications for researchers of the new energy lithium industry, as follows:

1. New industry developments: The lithium separator industry is currently at a cyclical inflection point. After the phase-out of inefficient capacity, wet-process separators have seen sustained growth in demand and market share driven by the adoption of large energy storage cells, and leading enterprises have returned to profitability for a recovery. However, leading players have all launched a new round of large-scale expansion, and after concentrated capacity release in 2027-2028, the industry supply-demand outlook remains highly uncertain. As solid-state battery commercialization approaches, traditional separator leaders have already started布局 relevant technologies.

2. New industry issues: During the high-speed expansion period, the widespread industry norm has been non-compliant R&D expense classification, and this issue has come to the fore amid tighter tax regulation. Rapid expansion has also exposed prominent internal control weaknesses at many firms. Combined with losses from price wars, even leading enterprises face significant capital chain pressure, and technological iteration puts the risk of idling on the industry's large existing capacity base.

3. Research implications: Tighter tax regulation on the "new three exports" will drive industry-wide compliance development. Future research can focus on the balance between scale expansion and risk control in cyclical industries, track the impact of technological iteration on existing industry structures, and study effective paths for leading enterprises to navigate industry cycles.

Disclaimer: The "Quick Summary" content is entirely generated by AI. Please exercise discretion when interpreting the information. For issues or corrections, please email run@ebrun.com .

I am a Brand Seller Factory Service Provider Marketplace Seller Researcher Read it again.

作为锂电隔膜龙头,恩捷股份近几年经历了从“狂奔”到“寒冬”再到“复苏”的周期性波动。

就在公司业绩回暖的过程中,近半年内,恩捷股份接连发布三家子公司的补税公告,合计补缴税款与滞纳金超1.2亿元。按每日万分之五的滞纳金标准倒推,这几笔税款的滞纳周期普遍在两年左右。

2025年,恰逢国家税务总局将锂电池、光伏、电动车“新三样”列为重点监管领域,锂电行业违规享受研发费用加计扣除的现象被频频曝光。

在湿法隔膜赛道,将生产线调试、工艺优化等生产端费用包装为研发投入,已是业内半公开的潜规则。

那么,恩捷股份此番集中补税,是否也踩中了研发费用归集的合规红线?目前曝出问题的仅三家子公司,而公司生产基地遍布全国十余座城市,后续是否还会有更多税务合规问题出现?

从借跨界收购快速切入锂电池隔膜赛道,到行业风口期时的产能翻倍,恩捷股份一路狂奔的背后,税务风波已经暴露出其内控体系的短板。

除了内控问题外,恩捷股份还要面临近百亿短债压顶、资金缺口高悬等难题,这也让公司的“复苏”之路增添了一丝不确定性。

1

子公司合计补税近1.2亿元

6月23日,恩捷股份发布公告称,公司下属子公司珠海恩捷新材料科技有限公司(以下简称“珠海恩捷”)对纳税义务履行情况开展了日常合规自查,经自查确认,珠海恩捷需补缴税款及滞纳金总计2959.56万元,其中:补缴税款2144.45万元,滞纳金815.10万元,当前已补缴完毕。

根据相关规定,上述事项不属于前期会计差错,不涉及前期财务数据追溯调整,因而上述补缴税款及滞纳金将计入2026年当期损益,预计将影响公司2026年归母净利润2818.09万元。

「创业最前线」注意到,这已经是恩捷股份今年披露的第三份子公司补税公告。

5月7日,恩捷股份称,公司下属子公司江西省通瑞新能源科技发展有限公司需补缴税款及滞纳金总计4610.27万元,将计入2026年当期损益,预计将影响2026年归母净利润4343.24万元;

1月27日,恩捷股份宣布,公司下属子公司无锡恩捷新材料科技有限公司需补缴企业所得税4402.47万元,补缴的税款将计入2025年当期损益,预计将影响公司2025年归母净利润4192.03万元。

一家市值600余亿元的锂电隔膜龙头,半年接连挂出三份补税公告,三笔合计税款本金约9985.56万元,滞纳金约1986.72万元,总补税成本近1.2亿元。

而如果按每日万分之五的滞纳金标准倒推,对应的税款滞纳周期普遍在两年左右。这意味着,这些补税事项并非当期操作走偏,而是前两年的历史遗留问题,在此轮自查中被集中排查、集中清理。

另外,三起事项均明确为“日常合规自查发现”,通常只需补缴税款及按日加收的滞纳金,不涉及行政处罚。

「创业最前线」发现,2025年以来,国家税务总局明确将“新三样”(锂电池、光伏、电动车)列为重点监管领域,去年8月,国家税务总局还专门曝光了锂电企业违规享受研发费用加计扣除、骗取税费优惠的典型案件。

从处罚的案例看,2021至2023年,江西南氏锂电新材料有限公司通过扩大研发人员范围,将非直接从事研发工作的人员工资费用668.22万元纳入研发支出进行申报,违规享受研发费用加计扣除税费优惠。

回到恩捷股份所处的隔膜行业来看,锂电湿法隔膜的核心壁垒普遍在高端生产设备,而非材料配方。行业内部分公司的研发投入,存在生产线调试、工艺优化的生产端费用,真正的基础材料、下一代技术研发占比极低。因此,有不少公司会把生产环节的费用包装成研发,既拿了税收优惠,又讲了技术故事。

那么,恩捷股份的具体补税原因是否与之有关呢?

另外,「创业最前线」注意到,如果真的按照滞纳金计算,税款滞纳周期普遍在两年左右乃至更长,那恩捷股份为何将补税损失计入2025、2026年财报,而非历史年度追溯调整?是否存在平滑景气期业绩、掩盖当年真实盈利承压的操作?会计处理选择不追溯调整的核心依据是什么?

对于上述疑问,「创业最前线」也向公司发去了采访函,但截至发稿,对方尚未回复。

2

扩张背后难掩内控和资金风险

近几年,随着业绩的提升,恩捷股份在全国布局的规模在逐渐扩大。

2016年上市时,公司主业还是烟标、BOPP薄膜等包装印刷业务,隔膜只是实控人家族在上市平台体外培育的资产。

2017年,公司(当时名为创新股份)拟以55.5亿元对价收购上海恩捷100%股权,但这笔交易最后只收购了90.08%股权,此后又收购了部分股权(天眼查显示,当前公司直接持有上海恩捷95.2222%股权);2018年,公司正式更名“恩捷股份”,完成从传统包装向新能源材料的跨界转型。

这一年,公司同步启动了全国产能布局,从仅有上海一处生产基地,快速形成“华东+华南+华中”的三角产能布局,隔膜年产能一举跃升至13亿平方米,跻身行业第一梯队。

2021年新能源车销量爆发,隔膜成为全产业链最紧缺的环节之一,价格一路上涨,行业进入“有产能就有利润”的黄金期。

于是,恩捷股份再次按下加速键,开启史上最大规模扩产。在国内,公司在湖北、福建等地与亿纬锂能、宁德时代等下游客户合资建厂,绑定订单同步落地产能;也先后启动匈牙利、美国俄亥俄州工厂,成为最早大规模出海建设湿法隔膜生产基地的龙头企业之一。

在这个过程中,其产能规模从2020年的33亿平方米,快速攀升至2024年底的117亿平方米,四年累计上涨2.5倍,全球市占率最高突破35%。

近几年来,恩捷股份的营收一路攀升,从2021年的79.82亿元,攀升至2025年的136.32亿元。

企业若忽视合规管控,其风险在业绩上行期往往会被高增长所掩盖。但一旦行业进入存量竞争、监管环境收紧,管理漏洞就会转化为实实在在的经营成本。

如今,其补税风波涉及了珠海、江西、无锡三个地方的子公司,除此之外,公司在云南、上海、江苏、湖北等地还有多个生产基地,若启动全面自查,后续是否还会涉及税款的补缴?对利润的冲击是否存在持续放大的可能?

可以说,税务问题只是浮出水面的冰山一角,其背后更应该关注的是企业管理以及内控等深层问题。

例如,2025年4月,恩捷股份曾因募集资金管理违规被云南证监局责令改正,记入诚信档案,也反映出公司在内控上的漏洞。

如今,恩捷股份仍在计划进行大规模扩产。2026年5月,恩捷股份宣布,计划在四川投资建设年产50亿平方米锂电池隔膜项目,总投资额约40亿元。

持续扩大的产能规模,除了加大管理半径,导致在管理上可能存在不足,更直接的是对资金造成的压力。

截至2026年一季度末,恩捷股份短期借款73.33亿元、一年内到期的非流动负债23.12亿元,二者合计高达96.45亿元。而同期货币资金仅28.89亿元,若以此粗略计算,公司短债资金缺口达67.56亿元。

而公司大量资金被客户占用,营收只是“纸面富贵”——2026年一季度末的应收账款高达76.91亿元,同比增长46.46%,规模远超同期营收39.08亿元。

在此背景下,恩捷股份再扛40亿元投资,财务压力不言而喻。公司坦言,本项目资金通过自有资金和自筹资金等方式解决,由此将导致公司现金流减少,增加财务风险;此外,本项目投资额较大,若公司融资不能及时到位,项目进度将受到影响。

3

站在行业周期的关键拐点

补税风波,叠加持续承压的资金,并非恩捷股份在经营中单独存在的问题。作为全球湿法锂电隔膜的绝对龙头,公司正站在一轮行业周期的关键拐点上。

锂电池隔膜是动力电池的核心内层构件,承担阻隔正负极、传导锂离子的功能,技术壁垒高,曾是新能源产业链中利润率最丰厚的环节之一。

2021年—2023年的新能源汽车高景气周期中,隔膜一度成为全产业链极度紧缺的环节,大量资本涌入赛道,头部企业与二线玩家同步开启大规模扩产,恩捷股份也正是在这一阶段完成了全国乃至全球的产能布局。

但随着行业产能集中释放与下游电池厂“价格战”向上传导,隔膜行业仅用两年时间便从供不应求滑向产能过剩。

这时,价格成为有力的竞争武器。根据百川盈孚数据,2024年年初国内7um湿法隔膜主流报价为1.10-1.45元/平方米,到了年末降至0.75-0.93元/平方米。

为守住市场份额,恩捷股份不得不跟随行业降价,而重资产属性下固定折旧刚性存在,产能利用率下滑进一步放大了盈利的恶化程度。

2024年,恩捷股份实现营业收入101.64亿元,同比下降15.6%;归母净利润亏损5.56亿元,为上市以来首次年度亏损。

与此同时,公司毛利率从巅峰时期的近50%骤降至11.07%,第四季度单季毛利率甚至转负,叠加存货跌价与资产减值计提,经营压力飙升。

进入2025年,行业曙光初现。一方面,落后产能在“价格战”中逐步出清,行业集中度持续提升;另一方面,在储能领域,314Ah大电芯成了主流,渗透率超过70%。

这种大电芯对隔膜的稳定性和一致性要求更高,导致下游客户加速从干法隔膜转向湿法隔膜。根据研究机构EVTank的数据,2025年湿法隔膜的市场占比从2024年的76.9%,提升到2025年的近80.7%。

2025年,公司实现营业收入136.33亿元,同比增长34.13%;归母净利润1.43亿元,成功扭亏为盈。

2026年一季度,修复势头进一步加速——实现营业收入39.08亿元,同比增长43.21%;归母净利润2.60亿元,同比激增901.70%;毛利率回升至28.09%,同比增长63.89%。

但业绩回暖并不意味着风险完全出清,相较于2022年巅峰时期40亿元的归母净利润,当前盈利水平仍有明显差距。站在周期反转的关键节点,恩捷股份至少面临三重不容忽视的考验。

首当其冲的是新一轮产能扩张隐忧。就在行业刚从“价格战”中得以喘息之际,头部企业已再次开启扩产周期。几乎就在恩捷股份宣布拟投资40亿元在四川荣县扩产同期,沧州明珠、璞泰来等同行企业也纷纷抛出数十亿级扩产计划。仅仅半个月,行业合计宣布新增产能达到146亿平方米。

这意味着,到了2027年—2028年新增产能集中释放后,隔膜价格反弹的持续性与弹性将受到压制。

其次,是前文提到的债务与现金流压力,多年加速扩产叠加“价格战”消耗,恩捷股份资金能力持续承压。

更值得关注的是,技术路线迭代的长期风险。

固态电池被视为下一代动力电池技术方向,也成为悬在传统隔膜头上的“达摩克利斯之剑”。行业普遍把2027年看作固态电池商业化的关键窗口,根据国信证券预测,到2030年,全固态电池市场规模可能到1138亿。

虽然公司已经在布局半固态和固态电解质,比如控股子公司江苏三合进军半固态隔膜,湖南恩捷前沿新材料建设了10吨级固态电解质产线,但要实现大规模替代,还得关注行业技术路线方向。

此外,若固态电池成为行业趋势,公司庞大的液态隔膜产能将面临闲置风险。

不仅如此,中材科技、星源材质等国内竞争对手持续追赶,海外企业也在加速本地化布局,恩捷股份的全球市占率优势并非牢不可破。

对于恩捷股份而言,周期反转带来的不仅是业绩修复的窗口,更是补上内部管理短板的契机。能否在规模扩张与风险管控之间找到平衡,将决定这家隔膜龙头能否真正平稳穿越下一轮周期。

注:文/于莹,文章来源:创业最前线(公众号ID:chuangyezuiqianxian),本文为作者独立观点,不代表亿邦动力立场。

文章来源:创业最前线

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