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“放假回来 估值又涨了”

杨继云 2026-06-25 11:43
杨继云 2026/06/25 11:43

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本文主要披露了2026年中国创投圈的最新行业现状,核心干货信息如下:

1. 当前创投圈核心现象是项目估值暴涨,多个案例显示,项目估值短期内翻倍甚至翻十倍是常态,比如约见时估值9亿,短短时间就涨到30亿,下轮要到80亿,两个月估值涨三倍,PPT阶段的商业航天项目就敢喊出百亿估值,当前90%的资金都集中在AI、具身智能、量子、脑机接口、商业航天等硬科技赛道,推高了整体估值。

2. 现在优质项目抢筹白热化,投资决策周期从过去3个月压缩到72小时,不少项目不接受尽调对赌,要求快速打款,稍有犹豫就会错失份额。

3. 业内人士提醒当前市场存在估值泡沫,判断估值是否合理可以看当前估值下大公司是否愿意全盘收购,最终只有能拿出产品、营收的公司能留下来,要避免盲目FOMO追高,保持理性判断。

本文梳理了2026年一级创投市场的最新动向,能帮品牌商把握前沿科技风向,找到新的增长机会,核心干货如下:

1. 当前资本高度集中的赛道为AI、具身智能、量子、脑机接口、商业航天五大硬科技领域,这是当下全行业公认的高增长方向,品牌商如果要布局新业务、跨界转型,可以参考这个资本风向布局相关方向。

2. 当前一级市场因为IPO赚钱效应催生了整体估值暴涨,FOMO情绪浓重,不少没有营收的初创项目就获得了极高估值,存在明显的估值泡沫,品牌商布局投资或者跨界合作时,可参考业内判断标准:即看当前估值下大公司是否愿意全盘收购,以此判断价格与价值是否匹配,规避泡沫风险。

3. 当前优质项目抢筹严重,决策节奏大幅加快,品牌商对接优质初创项目需要提前做好准备,提升决策效率,才能把握合作机会。

本文披露了2026年一级股权投资市场的最新变化,能给关注创业机会、新赛道布局的卖家提供方向参考,核心干货如下:

1. 当前明确的高增长热点赛道集中在AI、具身智能、量子、脑机接口、商业航天几个硬科技领域,市场中90%的资金都集中在这些赛道,是当前公认的时代红利方向,卖家可以重点关注这些赛道的落地应用机会,挖掘新的增长空间。

2. 当前市场受IPO赚钱效应影响,估值暴涨,存在明显的估值透支泡沫,不少没有实际营收的初创公司也喊出百亿估值,卖家如果要参与创业或者投资相关项目,要警惕高位接盘的风险,不要因为FOMO情绪盲目入场。

3. 当前行业整体决策节奏大幅加快,优质项目供不应求,卖家如果要对接项目需要提前做好调研准备,提升决策速度,才能抓住入场机会。

本文梳理了2026年创投圈最新的热点赛道方向,能给制造类工厂把握新商业机会、调整转型方向提供参考,核心干货如下:

1. 当前资本最热的赛道集中在AI、具身智能也就是智能机器人、量子、脑机接口、商业航天等硬科技领域,这类项目都需要硬件研发、零部件生产、成品组装等生产环节的支撑,给各类零部件工厂、代工厂带来了大量新增的业务需求和商业机会。

2. 当前硬科技初创项目融资顺畅,估值上涨快,整体扩张速度远快于过去,工厂对接这类初创客户时,需要调整自身的生产交付流程,匹配客户快速扩张的节奏,才能抓住长期合作机会。

3. 当前部分硬科技项目存在估值泡沫,工厂在对接业务、布局投资相关方向时,要优先选择已经有实际产品、稳定客户和真实营收的项目,避免盲目跟风,陷入经营风险。

本文总结了2026年一级创投市场的最新发展动向,能帮创投相关、科创服务类服务商把握行业趋势,抓住客户需求,核心干货如下:

1. 当前行业整体发展趋势向好,2026年第一季度中国股权投资市场投资金额同比上升15.4%,总投资规模预计增幅可达36%,外币投资更是上升了495.3%,创投市场进入新的发展大年,资本和初创项目数量快速增长,给服务商带来了大量新增客户需求。

2. 当前行业核心客户痛点清晰:资本端抢优质项目,决策周期从3个月压缩到72小时,需要更高效的尽调、合规服务支撑;资本端普遍存在FOMO焦虑,既怕错过时代红利又怕高位接盘,需要专业的项目研判服务;创业者对自身估值合理性也存在困惑,需要专业的融资顾问服务。

3. 业内已经总结出估值判断的可行方法,服务商可以将该方法融入自身服务方案,更好地解决客户痛点。

本文披露了2026年创投一级市场的最新变化,给做科创服务、股权对接的平台商调整运营方向提供参考,核心干货如下:

1. 当前市场对平台的需求发生明显变化:现在项目融资节奏极快,优质项目抢筹严重,投资方和初创方都需要更高效的项目对接渠道,平台需要优化对接流程,缩短信息传递路径,满足市场快速对接的需求。

2. 平台招商和流量倾斜方向明确:当前资本和项目都集中在AI、具身智能、量子、脑机接口、商业航天等硬科技赛道,平台招商和运营可以重点倾斜这些赛道,吸引更多相关资本和项目入驻,提升平台竞争力。

3. 风险规避方面:当前市场存在明显的估值泡沫,不少无营收项目也获得高估值,平台在推广项目、对接资源时,要做好风险提示,引导市场参与者用“大公司是否愿意全盘收购”的标准判断估值合理性,帮参与者规避泡沫风险,维护平台长期口碑。

本文整理了2026年中国股权投资市场的最新动向和多位业内资深人士的核心观点,为产业和创投领域的研究者提供了丰富的一手信息,核心干货如下:

1. 产业新动向清晰:2026年一级市场投资明显回暖,第一季度投资金额同比增长15.4%,总投资规模预计增幅可达36%,外币投资大幅增长495.3%;市场中90%的资金集中在AI、具身智能等硬科技赛道,催生估值大幅上涨,抢项目成为常态,投资决策周期被大幅压缩,一级市场进入新的发展阶段。

2. 行业新问题突出:当前市场FOMO情绪严重,估值透支问题明显,不少未落地、无营收的初创项目就获得百亿估值,价格和价值不匹配,泡沫风险凸显,传统的投资尽调、对赌规则被打破,行业内卷加剧。

3. 行业提出了新的估值判断逻辑:用“大公司是否愿意在当前估值全盘收购创业公司”来判断估值是否合理,这个新标准对研究当前一级市场估值逻辑有重要参考价值,也再次验证了创投行业的周期发展规律。

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Quick Summary

This article reveals the latest status of China's venture capital industry in 2026, with key takeaways as follows:

1. The defining trend of the current VC market is skyrocketing startup valuations. It has become common for valuations to double or even grow 10x within a short period: for example, a startup valued at RMB 900 million when first pitched jumped to RMB 3 billion in days, with its next round targeting RMB 8 billion — a 3x increase in just two months. Even pre-product commercial aerospace projects at the PowerPoint stage are seeking valuations north of RMB 10 billion. Currently, 90% of all capital flows into hard tech tracks including AI, embodied intelligence, quantum technology, brain-computer interfaces and commercial aerospace, driving up overall valuations across the market.

2. Competition for high-quality deals has become extremely intense, with investment decision timelines compressed from the traditional 3 months to just 72 hours. Many startups refuse to accept due diligence or valuation adjustment clauses, demanding immediate capital injections, and investors who hesitate lose out on allocations entirely.

3. Industry insiders warn that valuation bubbles are already forming in the market. A simple test they cite for reasonable valuation is whether a large corporate would be willing to acquire the entire startup at its current valuation. Ultimately, only startups that deliver actual products and generate revenue will survive, and investors should avoid FOMO-driven overbidding and maintain rational judgment.

This article outlines the latest developments in China's 2026 private venture capital market, to help brand owners capture cutting-edge technology trends and spot new growth opportunities, with key insights as follows:

1. Capital is currently heavily concentrated in five high-growth hard tech sectors: AI, embodied intelligence, quantum technology, brain-computer interfaces, and commercial aerospace, which are widely recognized as the highest-growth directions across the industry. Brands looking to expand into new business lines or pursue cross-industry transformation can use this capital trend as a reference for layout planning.

2. Strong IPO returns have driven widespread valuation surges and broad FOMO sentiment in the primary market, with many revenue-less early-stage startups already securing extremely high valuations, creating clear valuation bubbles. When making strategic investments or pursuing cross-industry partnerships, brands can use the industry's common valuation test: check whether a large corporation would be willing to acquire the entire startup at its current valuation to judge whether price matches value, and mitigate bubble risk.

3. Competition for high-quality deals is extremely fierce and decision-making timelines have shortened sharply. Brands need to prepare in advance and improve internal decision efficiency to secure partnership opportunities with high-quality startups.

This article discloses the latest shifts in China's 2026 private equity market, providing directional reference for sellers interested in entrepreneurial opportunities and new track layout, with key takeaways as follows:

1. Clear high-growth hot spots are currently concentrated in hard tech tracks including AI, embodied intelligence, quantum technology, brain-computer interfaces, and commercial aerospace, which attract 90% of all market capital and are widely recognized as the key sources of generational opportunity. Sellers can focus on practical application opportunities in these tracks to unlock new growth potential.

2. Driven by strong IPO returns, valuations across the market have surged sharply, creating obvious overvaluation bubbles. Many early-stage startups with no actual revenue are already seeking valuations as high as RMB 10 billion. Sellers looking to participate in entrepreneurship or invest in related projects should be wary of the risk of buying into overvalued positions, and avoid entering the market blindly driven by FOMO sentiment.

3. Industry-wide decision timelines have shortened sharply and high-quality deals are in short supply. Sellers need to complete pre-deal research in advance and speed up decision-making to secure entry opportunities.

This article sorts out the latest hot track directions in China's 2026 VC market, providing reference for manufacturing factories to identify new business opportunities and adjust transformation strategies, with key insights as follows:

1. The most capital-favored tracks right now are hard tech sectors: AI, embodied intelligence (smart robotics), quantum technology, brain-computer interfaces, and commercial aerospace. All of these types of projects require support from hardware R&D, component production, and final assembly, bringing large amounts of new business demand and commercial opportunities to component manufacturers and contract factories.

2. Currently, hard tech startups enjoy smooth financing and rapidly rising valuations, leading to far faster expansion than in previous cycles. When partnering with these early-stage hard tech clients, factories need to adjust their production and delivery processes to match clients' rapid expansion timelines, to capture long-term cooperation opportunities.

3. Valuation bubbles exist in a portion of current hard tech projects. When pursuing business partnerships or strategic investments in related areas, factories should prioritize startups that already have actual products, stable clients and verifiable revenue, to avoid blind follow-on investment that could create operational risk.

This article summarizes the latest developments in China's 2026 private venture capital market, helping VC and innovation service providers grasp industry trends and align with client demand, with key takeaways as follows:

1. The overall industry trend is positive: in Q1 2026, China's private equity investment volume rose 15.4% year-over-year, with full-year total investment size projected to grow 36% overall. Foreign currency investment has surged 495.3% year-over-year. The VC market has entered a new growth cycle, with both capital and startup counts growing rapidly, generating large amounts of new client demand for service providers.

2. Core client pain points are clear: on the capital side, fierce competition for high-quality deals has compressed decision timelines from 3 months to 72 hours, creating demand for more efficient due diligence and compliance services. Capital players also face widespread FOMO anxiety: they fear missing out on generational opportunities, but also fear buying into overvalued positions, creating demand for professional project evaluation services. Founders also face confusion over how to price their companies reasonably, creating demand for professional financing advisory services.

3. The industry has already developed a workable method for valuation assessment. Service providers can integrate this framework into their own service offerings to better address client pain points.

This article discloses the latest shifts in China's 2026 private venture capital market, providing reference for innovation service and equity matching platforms to adjust their operational strategies, with key insights as follows:

1. Market demand for platforms has changed noticeably: financing timelines are now extremely fast, and competition for high-quality deals is intense. Both investors and startups need more efficient deal matching channels, so platforms need to optimize their matching workflows and shorten information transmission paths to meet the market's demand for faster connections.

2. The direction for business development and traffic allocation is clear: capital and projects are currently concentrated in hard tech tracks including AI, embodied intelligence, quantum technology, brain-computer interfaces, and commercial aerospace. Platforms can allocate more resources to business development and operations for these tracks to attract more relevant capital and projects to the platform, and boost overall competitiveness.

3. For risk management: obvious valuation bubbles exist in the current market, with many revenue-less startups securing extremely high valuations. When promoting projects and matching resources, platforms should provide clear risk warnings, guide market participants to use the "would a large corporation acquire the entire startup at this valuation" test to judge valuation reasonableness, help participants avoid bubble risk, and protect the platform's long-term reputation.

This article compiles the latest developments in China's 2026 private equity market, along with core insights from multiple senior industry insiders, providing rich first-hand information for industry and VC researchers, with key takeaways as follows:

1. Clear new industry trends have emerged: primary market investment has rebounded notably in 2026, with Q1 investment volume up 15.4% year-over-year and full-year total investment size projected to grow 36% overall. Foreign currency investment has jumped 495.3% year-over-year. 90% of total market capital is concentrated in hard tech tracks such as AI and embodied intelligence, driving sharp valuation increases, making deal competition the norm and drastically compressing investment decision timelines. The Chinese primary market has entered a new stage of development.

2. Prominent new industry issues have emerged: FOMO sentiment is widespread, and valuation overstretch is obvious. Many pre-commercialization, revenue-less startups have already secured valuations north of RMB 10 billion, creating a mismatch between price and value and highlighting bubble risk. Traditional investment due diligence and valuation adjustment clauses are being abandoned, and industry competition has intensified significantly.

3. The industry has put forward a new logic for valuation assessment: judging valuation reasonableness by whether a large corporation would be willing to acquire an entire startup at its current valuation. This new standard provides important reference value for researching primary market valuation logic today, and further validates the cyclical development law of the VC industry.

Disclaimer: The "Quick Summary" content is entirely generated by AI. Please exercise discretion when interpreting the information. For issues or corrections, please email run@ebrun.com .

I am a Brand Seller Factory Service Provider Marketplace Seller Researcher Read it again.

一抹缩影。

作者/杨继云

报道/投资界PEdaily

“约见时估值9个亿,昨天见面了说马上关账,现在想投得按30亿估值来;实在赶不上,下一轮直接飙到80亿。”

投资界SuperLink大会上,清科集团创始人、董事长;清科控股董事长兼CEO倪正东分享的案例让在场所有投资人心有戚戚。试问2026年,还有哪位投资人没经历过项目估值“眨眼间”翻倍的一幕呢?

今年估值上涨,大家体感一致——

“出了一趟差,估值又涨了”

“见面晚三天,这轮融完了”

“信息回慢了,额度已没了”

......

广州产投资本董事长魏大华坦言有点看不懂:“我们也投了一些项目,一年内估值翻了十倍,甚至有的项目这边钱没有打出去,估值已经翻了五倍。”

创投圈很久没有这般沸腾场面了。

“估值涨疯了”

当投资人结束短暂的假期回到办公室,他可能会绝望地发现,自己原本还在犹豫的项目,估值又已经悄无声息涨了。

这样的戏码比以往时候都要来得更多。

“我们某个脑机项目还没有完成交割,后一轮可转债已经实现1.5亿元,估值在两个月内上涨三倍。”道彤投资创始管理合伙人孙琦感叹,今年项目估值涨得太快,“出手要快”。

我们也听到不少这样的案例:

某创业公司成立不到一周,已经close两轮,第三轮的额度还超级难抢;投的时候感觉已经“贵上天”的项目,投完一个月估值竟然又翻了好几番;PPT阶段的商业航天企业,敢喊出百亿身价,但后面还有一堆人排着队送钱。

更不用提近期大家所亲眼目睹的——Kimi月之暗面的“中国大模型最大融资”纪录仅保持了一天,就被阶跃星辰以单笔25亿美元的最新融资打破,而Kimi新一轮300亿美金估值的融资又已开启;

具身公司纷纷进入200亿估值俱乐部,据悉头部身位的智元机器人已经喊到了400亿;成立不到3年的灵心巧手正计划在下一轮融资中寻求60亿美元的估值;垣信卫星以投前600亿元估值开启B轮融资……

悄然间,投资人的共识前所未有地高度集中——当前市场上90%的资金集中在AI、具身智能、量子、脑机接口、商业航天等细分赛道,顺势催生企业估值火箭般地飙升。

正如亲历国内量子赛道起伏,华控基金合伙人、CEO金豫江观察到,自去年第四季度起估值涨得特别快,“现在一个天使轮项目就是10亿、20亿,半年就奔着50亿去了。”

此情此景,动辄百亿估值的初创公司,大家似乎也不觉得贵。

今年又见抢项目

犹记得两年前,一级市场还是“非必要不出手”。

现在,抢项目的一幕又回来了。

正如清科研究中心数据显示:2026年第一季度,我国股权投资市场共完成2568起投资案例,同比上升4.9%;披露投资金额约2344.25亿元,同比上升15.4%。

若以平均投资金额对未披露金额案例进行估算,Q1中国股权投资市场总投资规模预计增幅可达36%。特别是外币投资金额超过600亿,同步上升了495.3%——景象可想而知。

这是前几年不敢想象的画面。

“我记得很清楚,2024年的时候,我们合作了很多基金,发现这些GP投不出去,投资进度都完成不了,钱也不容易募到。”魏大华坦言,如今这个现象大为改观,大家都抢着投资,很多项目都要抢份额。

选择权更多地摆在创业者面前。“不是我们挑项目,是项目挑我们。”北京一家头部VC合伙人坦言,一级市场的项目争夺已白热化——有项目刚启动融资,便被数十家机构围抢,投资决策周期从过去3个月压缩至72小时。

甚至,只要稍微犹豫半天,好项目就被别的机构用TS堵住了门;面对创始人直接报出的“一口价”,也鲜少有机构还价。

优山投资董事长陈十游也很困惑,当下早期项目尽调与验证时间被大幅压缩,部分企业首轮资金尚未交割完毕,下一轮融资通道已经开启,行业内卷严重,优质标的很难抢到份额。

“不接受尽调,不接受对赌,只问今天能不能打款——下周就不是这个价格了。”一位不愿具名的早期VC投资人抱怨。

久违创投大年

警惕FOMO

如此迫切背后,是IPO赚钱效应摆在眼前。

回顾过去半年,摩尔线程、沐曦、智谱再到盛合晶微、大普微、联讯仪器排队IPO敲钟,市值动辄几千亿,百亿级回报屡见不鲜,不少基金收获了自身历史上最大的一笔回报。

IPO环境深刻改写着一级市场估值逻辑。比如正火的商业航天,“中科宇航最困难时,我们一次投了5个亿,前年还在担心能不能起来,现在准备上市,估值有望超千亿。”

由此,投资人产生一种强烈的预期:既然二级市场愿意给出几千亿的估值,那么一级市场几百亿的估值似乎也就不算昂贵了。这种“投进就是赚到”的预期,让大家都想挤上车。

“我跟一些同行交流,大家都有不同程度的焦虑和FOMO,不得不投,但又患得患失。”孙琦对此体会深刻。这种进退两难的拉扯感,几乎成了投资人的集体困境:既害怕高位接盘,不慎陷入高估值的泥潭;又担忧观望不前,错失了时代的红利。

目睹种种,IDG资本合伙人牛奎光提醒:“有些资产本来是十年维度的故事,却被市场预期压缩到三年内兑现,估值过度透支。”

一位创业者向Monolith砺思资本创始合伙人曹曦说起当下真实的困惑——为什么现在有些公司没什么营收却能获得高估值?曹曦则认为,判断一家公司估值离谱与否,可以看一个标准:在这个估值上能否被大公司全盘买走。

“我猜测,现在市场上一些高估值的创业公司,如果让大公司全盘买走,估值会打巨大的折扣,或者根本没人愿意收,它的价格和价值并不充分匹配。原因在于一级市场本身是单边做多市场,价格由出价最高的人决定,而且流动性只有很小的一部分。用这个标准去想,哪些公司当下100亿、200亿的估值没人愿意全盘买走,里面可能就有估值泡沫。”

从事25年风险投资,经纬创投创始管理合伙人徐传陞坦言,过往的投资经历一直在重复这样的循环——新技术出来,市场兴奋,资金进来,估值抬高。再往后,真正能拿出产品、服务、客户和收入的公司留下来,其他公司被市场重新定价。

到那时,理性的估值就会浮出水面。

周期从不偏袒狂热,但会奖励在喧嚣中还能算清账的人——如此,才配得上时代的溢价。

注:文/杨继云,文章来源:投资界(公众号ID:pedaily2012),本文为作者独立观点,不代表亿邦动力立场。

文章来源:投资界

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