“谷子经济” 赚钱的逻辑变了吗？

Overview: This article reveals the latest profit models and shifting dynamics in the "guu" merchandise economy and IP licensing. The key takeaway is that the industry is moving from high growth into a cooling phase, but new opportunities remain.

1. There are three mainstream ways to monetize IP: theme-park real-world entertainment, licensed merchandise (guu), and brand collaborations. Collaborations have exploded recently: Luckin Coffee's tie-up with Black Myth: Wukong sold over 18 million units and generated more than RMB 6 billion in revenue.

2. Cooling signals are emerging: anime badges have gone from tens of thousands of yuan each to being sold by weight; guu stores are closing in large numbers; top chains have closure rates above 30%; and Japanese anime imports have become far more restricted.

3. New opportunities are in audience expansion. Women account for more than 80% of exotic-pet keepers. An exotic-pet IP like Strawberry the Gecko has built 71,000 followers on Xiaohongshu; its 15-yuan blind boxes are so appealing that some consumers spend over 100 yuan on a full box. Frog Prince, meanwhile, has built the adult-oriented Bozai IP, whose stickers have been sent more than 1.1 billion times, giving it all-age reach.

Overview: For brand owners, the article offers practical reference points on IP collaborations, self-built IP, and audience expansion, and it notes that the industry's cooling phase has made cooperation models more flexible.

1. Brand collaboration is a high-growth track. Since 2020, the number of collaborations has grown at a 12.75% CAGR. Luckin used Black Myth: Wukong to generate more than RMB 6 billion in revenue, while Jasmine Milk Tea sold 5 million cups in seven days through its collaboration with Love and Deepspace. The playbook is "IP creates buzz + cross-penetration of user bases."

2. IP licensing fee models are changing. Some IP owners now accept zero upfront fees in exchange for a pure sales share, or use a "fixed license fee + sales share" model. This gives brand owners more negotiating room and lowers upfront costs.

3. For self-built IP, the Frog Prince path is instructive: first build children's mindshare through animation (revenue rose from RMB 1.269 billion to RMB 1.712 billion from 2011 to 2013), then launch the adult-oriented Bozai IP, using stickers and designer toys to reach all ages. The caveat is to watch for e-commerce disruption and the need for sustained investment.

Overview: Sellers can take away both warning signs about the market downturn and opportunities from new consumption trends, especially exotic-pet IP and lightweight, small-batch order models.

1. Risk alerts: the guu economy's growth rate has fallen from 40% to roughly 12%; 14% of offline guu stores close within a year; payment cycles for major KA (key account) clients have stretched from 90 days to 150 days; and some factories now refuse large KA orders. Sellers should avoid overstocking.

2. Growth opportunity: exotic-pet IP is exploding. Reptile pets and chirping insects grew more than 80% in the first half of 2026. Women make up 80% of keepers, and first-tier-city white-collar women are the core spenders. Sellers can build merchandise around geckos, sugar gliders, and similar creatures.

3. Small and mid-sized IPs are becoming a new opportunity. Gross margin on large foreign-trade orders is only 5%-10%, while IP customization orders typically involve about 10,000 units, are completed in 5-10 days, and carry gross margins above 40%. They fit factories and sellers that can respond quickly to pop-up events. Given restrictions on offline activities tied to Japanese IP, shifting to Chinese or original IPs is a safer strategy.

Overview: The article offers factories three key takeaways: small and mid-sized IP customization orders are more profitable, IP merchandise production must adapt to stricter design restrictions, and digitalization and AI may disrupt traditional production.

1. Order-mix advice: instead of accepting low margins from large foreign-trade clients (5%-10%), factories should pursue small and mid-sized IP orders. These typically run about 10,000 units, can be finished in 5-10 days, and offer gross margins above 40%. Such IP owners are becoming high-quality customers, so factories should proactively expand these partnerships.

2. Production and design constraints: leading overseas IP owners impose strict limits on artwork; they do not allow character images to be cropped or rotated. Factories are usually restricted to traditional formats such as badges, standees, and plush dolls. Before taking an order, factories must confirm the IP owner's design authorization scope to avoid non-compliant products.

3. Technology trend: AI is already entering IP content production and may challenge handcrafted production on cost and efficiency. Factories should monitor AI design tools' potential to replace parts of mold-making and sampling workflows, and invest early to reduce sampling costs.

Overview: For service providers, the article highlights the pain points of IP agencies, the demand for services created by the industry's cooling, and new opportunities in the exotic-pet segment.

1. Client pain points: overseas IP owners do not understand China's design process or commercial rules, while licensees face heavy licensing-fee pressure. Agencies need to mediate between both sides and optimize fee structures, for example by shifting from a one-time fee of several hundred thousand yuan to a sales-share arrangement, or to zero upfront fee plus a share.

2. Cooling creates new service needs: payment cycles for major KA clients have extended beyond 150 days, intensifying conflicts between brands and factories and making mediation harder. Service providers can offer supply-chain finance, receivables management, or risk-hedging services.

3. Solution opportunity: exotic-pet IP is a blue ocean. Providers can help IP owners with audience research, social-media operations, and offline pop-up events. Strawberry the Gecko gained 71,000 Xiaohongshu followers and appeared on Weibo's splash screen, demonstrating that fine-grained operations can create significant value.

Overview: The article shows how platform demand in the IP industry is changing. Platforms can focus on three directions: audience expansion, filling event gaps caused by content shortages, and serving small and mid-sized IPs.

1. Platform opportunities: exotic-pet IP audiences are concentrated among first-tier-city women who enjoy interaction on social platforms. Platforms can create exotic-pet sections, support full-box blind-box mechanics, or offer content recommendation slots for small and mid-sized IPs. Strawberry the Gecko shows that content platforms such as Xiaohongshu can efficiently incubate IPs.

2. Risk avoidance: with Japanese anime imports and offline activities restricted, platforms should reduce dependence on Japanese IPs and support domestic or original content to avoid copyright- or policy-related takedowns.

3. Operations and curation: offline guu stores are highly homogeneous. When recruiting merchants, platforms should evaluate IP diversity rather than concentrating on ultra-hot IPs such as Genshin Impact or Jujutsu Kaisen. Platforms can also learn from the Frog Prince-Bozai IP matrix, using stickers, short videos, and designer toys to attract all age groups and make the content ecosystem richer.

Overview: The article provides empirical cases of the IP industry moving from high-speed growth into an adjustment phase, making it useful for studying industry cycles, business-model evolution, and consumer shifts.

1. New industry dynamics: China's licensed merchandise retail sales reached RMB 179.85 billion in 2025, up 15.9% year-on-year. But the guu economy's growth rate has halved from 40% to about 12%, and 14% of offline stores closed, signaling a cooling phase. Japanese anime imports fell from 18 titles to zero, highlighting the policy impact on the value chain.

2. Business-model evolution: IP licensing has expanded from theme parks and licensed merchandise into a surge of brand collaborations. Fee structures have become more flexible, including zero upfront fees plus a sales share, reflecting IP owners' declining bargaining power. Growing payment-cycle conflicts among agencies, licensees, and factories make supply-chain coordination a valuable research topic.

3. Audience research: women account for 59% of IP-derivative consumers, while the gender gap in purchase rates has narrowed by 11.1 percentage points. More than 80% of exotic-pet keepers are women, and many prefer cute geckos, suggesting consumer psychology is shifting from novelty-seeking to emotional companionship. Frog Prince's path from children's brand to all-age IP is a useful reference for managing long-lasting IPs.