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大规模借款致短期借款超865亿元 金龙鱼二季度疯狂囤货100亿元

段楠楠 2026-08-28 09:08
段楠楠 2026/08/28 09:08

邦小白快读

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本文核心披露了国内粮油巨头金龙鱼2026年半年报的经营情况,核心干货信息如下:

1. 业绩方面:2026年上半年金龙鱼营收1228.52亿元,同比增长6.2%,归母净利润22.94亿元,同比增长30.69%,但利润增长主要来自转让子公司股权和处置金融资产的投资收益,扣非后净利润仅同比增长6.61%,核心厨房食品业务毛利率仅7.15%,较去年下滑超0.5个百分点,主要因原材料涨价,提价幅度跟不上成本涨幅。

2. 经营动作:受机构预测全球农产品价格上涨影响,结合此前原材料涨价利润大跌的教训,金龙鱼二季度囤积了超100亿元原材料,为此推高短期借款至865亿元,二季度经营性现金流流出超30亿元。

3. 其他情况:上市以来金龙鱼股价累计跌超82%,控股股东持股市值蒸发5700亿元,目前正布局中央厨房寻找第二增长曲线,暂未形成规模。

本文披露了粮油头部品牌金龙鱼最新经营状况,对粮油食品品牌有多方面干货参考:

1. 成本定价参考:粮油产品原材料成本占比极高,成品菜籽油中菜籽成本占比约80%,原材料涨价直接挤压利润,金龙鱼此次提价幅度不及原材料涨幅导致毛利率下滑,提醒品牌要做好成本预判,合理设置提价幅度平衡利润和市场接受度。

2. 风险应对参考:金龙鱼曾多次因农产品价格波动出现利润大幅下滑,此次提前预判价格走势,大规模囤积锁定低成本原材料对冲风险,这种应对价格波动的思路值得同类品牌借鉴。

3. 增长路径参考:当前核心粮油业务毛利率偏低,金龙鱼依托原有供应链优势布局中央厨房,切入预制菜、团餐等新赛道,契合当前消费趋势,是品牌拓展第二增长曲线的可参考方向。

本文梳理了粮油赛道的现状、机会与风险,干货总结如下:

1. 当前行业环境:受厄尔尼诺气象、地缘因素影响,全球农产品价格持续上涨,下游粮油加工及销售端普遍面临较大成本上涨压力,需要提前做好应对准备。

2. 可借鉴操作:头部企业金龙鱼在明确价格上涨预期后,提前大规模囤积原材料锁定低成本,以此对冲价格波动对利润的侵蚀,这种操作思路可供粮油类卖家参考。

3. 机会与风险提示:机会方面,当前核心粮油业务利润空间收窄,预制菜、团餐等新赛道有增长空间,卖家可依托自身资源切入;风险方面,需警惕囤货风险,金龙鱼曾在原材料高位囤货,后续价格下跌后计提存货跌价损失侵蚀利润,卖家囤货需要精准把握时机,避免存货风险。

本文披露了粮油加工头部企业金龙鱼的经营动态,对粮油生产加工工厂的干货参考如下:

1. 生产端核心需求:粮油加工属于薄利多销的加工价差模式,利润对原材料价格敏感度极高,原材料占终端产品成本比例极高,菜籽油原料占比超80%,因此生产运营的核心是原材料成本管控。

2. 成本管控启示:金龙鱼有过多次原材料价格波动导致利润大跌的教训,当前在价格上涨预期下提前前瞻性备货锁定低成本,这种操作思路值得同类加工工厂借鉴,同时也要警惕高位囤货后价格下跌带来的跌价损失风险,把控囤货规模和时机。

3. 新商业机会:金龙鱼依托自身粮油生产产能和供应链优势,布局中央厨房切入预制菜、团餐等新领域,拓展增长空间,国内粮油加工工厂也可以依托自身产能、供应链优势,挖掘相关新业务机会,寻找新增长。

本文梳理了当前粮油加工行业的痛点与需求,可为粮油产业链服务商提供以下干货参考:

1. 行业发展趋势:当前全球农产品受气象、地缘政治等多重因素影响,价格波动愈发频繁剧烈,下游粮油加工企业对成本管控、原材料价格风险管理的需求持续提升,相关服务缺口较大。

2. 核心客户痛点:粮油加工企业的核心痛点是原材料价格波动大,直接决定利润水平,金龙鱼过往多次因价格波动出现利润大幅下滑,同时当前核心主业毛利率持续偏低,企业普遍有寻找新增长曲线的需求。

3. 解决方案方向:企业提前囤货锁成本需要大量流动资金,催生了流动资金融资、价格风险管理等金融服务需求;企业拓展新业务、布局中央厨房园区需要招商、运营等相关服务,服务商可针对这些痛点开发匹配的解决方案,拓展客户群体。

本文披露了粮油产业头部企业的最新动态,对粮油相关平台的运营、招商可提供以下干货参考:

1. 企业合作需求:当前粮油加工企业核心主业利润增长乏力,普遍在寻找第二增长曲线,头部企业金龙鱼布局开放式中央厨房园区,需要引入外部食品企业入驻,对产业园区平台的运营、招商有明确的合作需求,平台可对接相关需求开展合作。

2. 平台运营方向:粮油加工企业囤货对冲价格波动需要大量流动资金,普遍存在融资需求,平台可针对性开发供应链金融服务,服务入驻企业,提升平台粘性。

3. 风险规避提示:粮油加工行业受原材料价格波动影响大,利润波动明显,不当囤货会直接导致利润亏损,平台引入相关企业或开展相关业务时,需要提示企业管控存货风险,同时平台自身也要做好相关风险防控,规避业绩波动带来的潜在问题。

本文提供了国内粮油加工龙头企业的最新经营数据,对产业研究的干货总结如下:

1. 产业新动向:当前全球气候变化叠加地缘政治影响,农产品价格波动成为行业常态,国内粮油加工企业普遍面临持续的成本管控压力,头部企业已经开始通过前瞻性囤货对冲价格波动风险,同时行业内企业普遍开始布局第二增长曲线,金龙鱼布局中央厨房就是典型代表。

2. 产业新问题:粮油加工行业本质赚取加工价差,利润对原材料价格依赖度极高,价格波动会带来利润的大幅波动,当前头部企业核心主业毛利率持续下滑,上市后受业绩影响股价大幅下跌,如何稳定利润、实现可持续增长是行业当前亟待解决的新问题。

3. 新商业模式研究:金龙鱼依托原有粮油供应链优势,打造开放式中央厨房,切入预制菜、团餐领域的新商业模式,是国内粮油加工企业转型的新方向,具备较高的研究价值。

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Quick Summary

This article discloses the operating performance of Chinese grain and oil giant Yihai Kerry Arawana (Jinlongyu) in the first half of 2026, with key takeaways below:

1. Financial performance: In H1 2026, Yihai Kerry posted revenue of 122.852 billion yuan, up 6.2% year-over-year, and net profit attributable to parent shareholders of 2.294 billion yuan, up 30.69% YoY. However, the profit growth mainly came from investment gains from the transfer of a subsidiary's equity and disposal of financial assets; its non-GAAP net profit only grew 6.61% YoY. The gross margin of its core kitchen food business stood at just 7.15%, down more than 0.5 percentage points from a year earlier, as price hikes failed to keep pace with rising raw material costs.

2. Business adjustments: Spurred by institutional forecasts for rising global agricultural commodity prices, and drawing lessons from past sharp profit drops caused by raw material inflation, Yihai Kerry accumulated over 10 billion yuan in raw material inventory in Q2. This pushed its short-term borrowing to 86.5 billion yuan, and led to an operating cash outflow of more than 3 billion yuan in the quarter.

3. Other background: Since its IPO, Yihai Kerry's share price has fallen by more than 82% cumulatively, erasing 570 billion yuan in market value from its controlling shareholder. The company is currently building out a central kitchen business to tap a second growth curve, which has not yet reached scale.

This article discloses the latest operating conditions of leading grain and oil brand Yihai Kerry Arawana, with key takeaways for grain and oil food brands:

1. Cost and pricing reference: Raw materials account for an extremely high share of finished grain and oil product costs – for finished rapeseed oil, rapeseed accounts for roughly 80% of total cost. Rising raw material prices directly squeeze profit margins; Yihai Kerry's gross margin declined this period because its price hikes failed to match raw material cost increases, which reminds brands to make sound cost forecasts and set appropriate price increase ranges to balance profitability and market acceptance.

2. Risk response reference: Yihai Kerry has suffered multiple sharp profit drops from agricultural commodity price volatility. This time, it pre-emptively locked in low-cost raw materials via large-scale inventory building to hedge against price risks. This approach to managing price volatility is a useful reference for peer brands.

3. Growth path reference: With low gross margins in its core grain and oil business, Yihai Kerry is leveraging its existing supply chain advantages to build a central kitchen business and enter new tracks including prepared dishes and group catering, aligning with current consumer trends. This is a referenceable path for brands looking to expand a second growth curve.

This article summarizes the current status, opportunities and risks of the grain and oil sector, with key takeaways below:

1. Current industry landscape: Driven by El Niño conditions and geopolitical factors, global agricultural commodity prices continue to rise, putting broad cost pressure on downstream grain and oil processors and sellers. Market participants need to prepare in advance for this challenge.

2. Referenceable operating strategy: After forming a clear expectation of rising prices, leading player Yihai Kerry pre-emptively built large-scale raw material inventory to lock in low costs, offsetting the impact of price volatility on profits. This strategy is a useful reference for grain and oil sellers.

3. Opportunity and risk reminder: On the opportunity side, as profit margins narrow in the core grain and oil business, new tracks such as prepared dishes and group catering offer growth room, and sellers can enter these segments based on their own resources. On the risk side, sellers need to be wary of inventory risks: Yihai Kerry previously accumulated inventory when raw material prices were at high levels, and subsequently had to take inventory impairment write-downs after prices fell, which eroded profits. Sellers need to time inventory building accurately to avoid inventory risks.

This article discloses the latest operating dynamics of leading grain and oil processor Yihai Kerry Arawana, with key takeaways for grain and oil processing factories:

1. Core production priority: Grain and oil processing operates on a thin-margin processing spread model, where profits are extremely sensitive to raw material prices. Raw materials account for an extremely high share of finished product costs, reaching more than 80% for rapeseed oil. This makes raw material cost control the core priority of production and operations.

2. Cost control insights: Having learned lessons from multiple sharp profit drops caused by raw material price volatility, Yihai Kerry proactively built inventory in advance to lock in low costs amid expectations of rising prices. This strategy is referenceable for peer processing factories. At the same time, processors need to guard against the risk of impairment losses if prices fall after high-level inventory building, and carefully control the scale and timing of stockpiling.

3. New business opportunities: Leveraging its existing grain and oil production capacity and supply chain advantages, Yihai Kerry is expanding into new areas such as prepared dishes and group catering via central kitchen operations to drive growth. Domestic grain and oil processing factories can similarly leverage their own capacity and supply chain advantages to explore related new business opportunities and unlock new growth.

This article summarizes current pain points and demands in the grain and oil processing industry, with key takeaways for service providers across the grain and oil supply chain:

1. Industry development trend: Influenced by multiple factors including weather and geopolitics, global agricultural commodity prices have become increasingly volatile, driving rising demand from downstream grain and oil processors for cost control and raw material price risk management services, leaving a significant unmet service gap in the market.

2. Core client pain points: Raw material price volatility is the core pain point for grain and oil processors, as it directly determines profitability. Yihai Kerry has suffered multiple sharp profit drops from price fluctuations in the past; meanwhile, core business gross margins have stayed persistently low, and most industry players have demand for new growth curves.

3. Solution directions: Pre-emptive inventory building to lock in costs requires large amounts of working capital, creating demand for financial services such as working capital financing and price risk management. When expanding new businesses and developing central kitchen parks, enterprises need related services such as investment promotion and park operation. Service providers can develop targeted solutions to address these pain points and expand their customer base.

This article discloses the latest dynamics of leading players in the grain and oil industry, with key takeaways for the operation and investment promotion of grain and oil-related platforms:

1. Enterprise cooperation demand: As core business profit growth slows for most grain and oil processing enterprises, they are broadly looking for a second growth curve. Leading player Yihai Kerry is developing open central kitchen parks that require external food enterprises to move in, creating clear demand for cooperation with industrial park platforms on operation and investment promotion. Platforms can connect with these demands to develop cooperation.

2. Platform operation direction: Grain and oil processors need large amounts of working capital to build inventory and hedge against price volatility, creating broad financing demand. Platforms can develop targeted supply chain financial services to serve resident enterprises and improve platform stickiness.

3. Risk avoidance reminder: The grain and oil processing industry is heavily exposed to raw material price volatility, leading to sharp profit fluctuations, and inappropriate inventory building can directly cause profit losses. When onboarding relevant enterprises or developing related businesses, platforms need to remind enterprises to manage inventory risks, and platforms themselves should also implement proper risk control to avoid potential issues from industry profit volatility.

This article provides the latest operating data of China's leading grain and oil processor, with key takeaways for industrial research:

1. New industry trends: Against the backdrop of global climate change and geopolitical tensions, agricultural commodity price volatility has become the new normal for the industry. Domestic grain and oil processors face persistent cost control pressure, and leading players have started to hedge price volatility via proactive inventory building. Meanwhile, industry players are broadly pursuing second growth curves, with Yihai Kerry's central kitchen布局 being a typical example.

2. New industry problems: The grain and oil processing industry essentially earns processing spreads, so profits are highly dependent on raw material prices, and price volatility leads to sharp profit fluctuations. Currently, leading players face sustained gross margin decline in core businesses, and sharp share price drops post-IPO due to weak performance. Stabilizing profits and achieving sustainable growth are new pressing problems the industry needs to solve.

3. New business model research: Yihai Kerry's new business model of leveraging original grain and oil supply chain advantages to build open central kitchens and enter the prepared dish and group catering sectors represents a new transformation direction for domestic grain and oil processing enterprises, and carries high research value.

Disclaimer: The "Quick Summary" content is entirely generated by AI. Please exercise discretion when interpreting the information. For issues or corrections, please email run@ebrun.com .

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8月13日,国内粮油巨头金龙鱼发布了2026年半年报,得益于转让子公司股权、处置结构性存款带来的投资收益,公司归母净利润同比增长30%以上。但剔除转让子公司股权带来的收益,金龙鱼扣非后净利润仅增长6.61%。

在利润微增的背景下,二季度金龙鱼加大了存货储备力度,单季度公司存货余额增加一百亿元以上。在此背景下,金龙鱼二季度经营性现金流流出超30亿元,此外为了筹集囤积原材料资金,金龙鱼也在大规模对外借款。

在厄尔尼诺气象影响下,高盛等研究机构不止一次发出警告全球农产品价格将上涨。作为国内粮油巨头,大豆等农产品原材料在公司成品食用油中占比极高。公司也曾因为大豆价格的大幅上涨,导致利润大跌,因此在农产品价格有上涨预期的情形下,囤积原材料无可厚非。

但仅靠地位囤积原材料,能否帮助金龙鱼对冲农产品价格波动带来的影响?公司除传统米面粮油外,又能否找到第二增长曲线?

01 核心业务毛利率下滑,利润增长依赖出售子公司股权

继2025年上半年业绩大幅回暖后,2026年上半年金龙鱼营收和利润依旧维持不错的增速。

数据显示,2026年上半年,金龙鱼实现营业收入1228.52亿元,同比增长6.2%,实现归母净利润22.94亿元,同比增长30.69%。

但公司利润增长很大一部分来源于转让子公司股权。2026年1月14日,金龙鱼董事会审议通过转让家乐氏上海及家乐氏昆山50%股权,该两家公司最终分别以4500万美元、1500万美元转让成功。

此次转让子公司股权让金龙鱼获得了3.09亿元处置联营企业的投资收益,此外公司出售了部分交易性金融资产,获得2亿元投资收益。在此带动下,公司仅投资收益便多达5.61亿元,2025年上半年仅1.58亿元。

在投资收益大增的背景下,上半年金龙鱼归母净利润增长超30%。

剔除出售子公司股权及处置金融资产带来的投资收益,金龙鱼扣非后净利润为14.8亿元,同比微增6.61%。

直观来看,在营收和利润增长的背景下,金龙鱼核心主业展现出来的盈利能力依旧不理想。据悉,金龙鱼第一大业务为厨房食品,包含食用油、大米、面粉等产品。

2026年上半年,金龙鱼厨房食品实现营业收入774.2亿元,占公司主营业务比例达63.02%,毛利率仅为7.15%,较2025年上半年的7.66%下降超0.5%。

公司毛利率下降与原材料成本上升有很大关系。公司食用油、面粉、大米等原材料如菜籽、葵花籽、小麦水稻原料涨价,导致公司生产成本上升。

据外界预测,一桶成品菜籽油中原材料菜籽成本占比高达80%左右。因此,原材料价格上涨对公司毛利率影响十分明显。为了抵消成本上涨带来的压力,报告期内金龙鱼上调了部分产品销售价格,但提价幅度不及原材料价格上涨幅度,导致产品毛利率下滑。

在厨房食品毛利率下滑影响下,公司整体毛利率从2025年上半年从6.53%下降至6.31%。

虽然毛利率下滑,但由于全渠道销售回暖加之产成品价格上涨,金龙鱼厨房食品收入仍增长8.21%至774.2亿元。

由于收入增长一定程度上摊销了人工、研发等成本,公司整体费用率出现下滑,因此在毛利率下滑的背景下,2026年上半年金龙鱼扣非后净利润才能增长6.61%。

02 二季度疯狂囤货100亿元,致短期借款超865亿元

在利润微增的背景下,2026年二季度金龙鱼正在疯狂囤货。

截至2026年6月30日,金龙鱼存货规模高达525.7亿元,较2026年3月31日的422.9亿元增长超102亿元。

拆分来看,公司存货主要由原材料、库存商品、在途材料三类构成,以上三类存货账面价值分别为273.46亿元、168.03亿元、73.36亿元。

实际上在途材料也是原材料,是指已经完成采购、所有权已经属于金龙鱼,但还没有运抵工厂、尚未验收入库的原材料。因此,合并计算公司原材料账面价值高达346.82亿元,公司二季度囤货也主要是采购原材料为主。

8月中旬,摩根大通曾发布研报称,由于化肥等农业生产资料运输受到影响,全球农作物价格上涨仍未见顶,报告预计,2027年上半年食品价格通胀率将达到5%。作为重要农产品,外界预测大豆、菜籽等农产品价格也将上涨。

为了锁定低价原材料,在半年报中金龙鱼坦言,预判原料价格走势,前瞻性开展原料备货储备,锁定低成本原材料,保障生产供货。

早在2021年,金龙鱼便因为大豆、葵花籽等原材料价格上涨,导致生产成本上升而利润大幅下滑。

2020年,上市后的金龙鱼交出了一份堪称完美的财报,同年公司扣非后净利润高达87.92亿元,同比增长96.36%。2021年,在原材料价格上涨影响下,公司扣非后净利润为49.96亿元,同比下降43.17%。

2023年及2024年,虽然棕榈油等原材料价格下跌,但由于公司在原材料价格高位时囤积了大量原材料,在2023年逐步投入生产,同时原料价格下行阶段,需要计提存货跌价损失,从而侵蚀利润。因此,2023年、2024年公司扣非后净利润分别只有13.21亿元、9.69亿元。

因此,在外界均预测农产品价格都会上涨的背景下,金龙鱼二季度加大力度对外采购。

在此影响下,公司二季度经营性现金流大幅流出。数据显示,2026年上半年经营性现金流净流入10.01亿元,而2026年一季度公司经营性现金流净流入达41.65亿元,这也意味着公司二季度经营性现金流流出超30亿元。

除消耗经营性现金流外,金龙鱼还在通过对外借款的方式来筹集采购原材料资金。截至2026年6月30日,金龙鱼短期借款为865.3亿元,较2026年3月31日的802.8亿元增长超62亿元。

本质而言,金龙鱼属于食品加工企业,挣得是产成品与原材料之前的加工价差,因此如何管理好存货囤积时机,尽量维持产品价差,对于金龙鱼的利润表现而言极为重要。

03 股价累计下跌超82%,控股股东持股市值蒸发5700亿元

由于自2020年以来公司业绩持续下滑,加之前期涨幅过大,公司股价自2021年初以来跌超82%,按股本计算公司市值累计蒸发超6300亿元。作为金龙鱼背后的实际操盘手郭氏家族在这轮股价下跌中损失惨重。

公开资料显示,金龙鱼最早可追溯至1988年,彼时爱国华侨郭鹤年、郭孔丰叔侄,在深圳赤湾动工建设南海油脂工业(赤湾)有限公司,中国第一家现代化外资油脂精炼厂。

1991年金龙鱼第一瓶金龙鱼小包装调和油下线,改写国内“打散装油”的消费习惯,开创国内小包装食用油时代。

1996年金龙鱼开始登录央视打广告,凭此金龙鱼逐步走向全国,成为国民品牌,经过多年发展金龙鱼经营规模持续扩大。

2006年郭氏集团旗下的益海集团与嘉里粮油合并,成立益海嘉里集团,整合后公司的产能与渠道实力大幅提升,成为粮油行业的“巨无霸”。

此后在国民收入持续提升的背景下,金龙鱼在国内经营规模进一步提升,业绩持续增长。在此背景下,金龙鱼完成股份制改造,公司定名益海嘉里金龙鱼粮油食品股份有限公司,搭建A股上市主体。

2020年,金龙鱼正式在A股创业板上市,由于当年业绩持续增长,加之彼时资金对消费股的追逐,公司市值一度涨至近8000亿元。

作为公司第一大股东豐益營銷(香港)有限公司持有金龙鱼89.99%股权,以此计算,巅峰时该部分股权超7000亿元。而豐益營銷(香港)有限公司背后的单一大股东正是郭氏家族。

此后由于公司业绩下滑,加之股份解禁,金龙鱼股价持续下跌。截至8月27日,公司股价报收26.24元/股,较巅峰期的142.6元/股跌超82%,公司第一大股东持股市值累计蒸发约5700亿元。

在主营业务收入增长缓慢、利润持续下滑的背景下,金龙鱼也在积极开拓第二增长曲线,而公司瞄准的方式便是中央厨房。

据悉,中央厨房主要是指公司依靠自有粮油基地,园区既自己生产学生餐、团餐、预制菜、冷冻烘焙、地方风味调料,同时对外开放,引入外部食品企业入驻。

目前,金龙鱼已经建成了9个园区投产。不过,由于金龙鱼并未公开对外界披露过中央厨房的具体收入,因此中央厨房过去几年收入增长情况如何,外界无从知晓。

但即便增长迅速,由于公司整体营收超1200亿元,中央厨房想要真正成为公司第二增长曲线,其整体营收至少得在数百亿元的规模,而想要达到该经营规模并不容易。

对于金龙鱼而言,依靠国内庞大的消费市场,其营业收入有稳定的保证。但作为食品加工企业,其利润能否保证,很大程度上要看产成品与原材料之间的价差。但在地缘政治及厄尔尼诺等各种因素影响下,豆粕、菜籽等农产品价格波动十分剧烈,因此,公司能否维持较高价差以保证利润增速,非常考验公司管理层的囤货时机及管理水平。

注:文/段楠楠,文章来源:子弹财经,本文为作者独立观点,不代表亿邦动力立场。

文章来源:子弹财经

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FAQ回顾

金龙鱼2026年上半年的经营业绩怎么样?

2026年上半年金龙鱼实现营业收入1228.52亿元,同比增长6.2%,归母净利润22.94亿元,同比增长30.69%。其利润增长主要来自转让子公司股权、处置金融资产的5.61亿元投资收益,剔除该部分后扣非净利润仅同比增长6.61%。

金龙鱼2026年二季度为什么要大规模囤货?

受厄尔尼诺、地缘政治等因素影响,大豆、菜籽等农产品价格存在上涨预期,金龙鱼此前曾因原材料价格上涨出现利润大幅下滑,此次囤货以采购原材料为主,目的是锁定低成本货源,对冲价格波动风险,保障生产供货。

金龙鱼为拓展第二增长曲线做了哪些布局?

金龙鱼将中央厨房作为第二增长曲线方向,依托自有粮油基地生产学生餐、团餐、预制菜、冷冻烘焙、地方风味调料等产品,同时开放园区引入外部食品企业入驻,目前已有9个中央厨房园区建成投产。

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