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史上最大解禁潮

周佳丽 2026-07-13 11:21
周佳丽 2026/07/13 11:21

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本次港股迎来史上最大限售股解禁潮,核心干货信息和投资参考如下:

1. 规模与节奏:2026年港股解禁总规模达1.55万亿-1.7万亿港元,较2025年猛增近三倍,创下历史新高,当前7月已经开启解禁,9月将迎来高峰,单月解禁5300亿港元占全年三分之一,筹码集中在AI、高端制造、医疗三大板块。

2. 市场表现规律:本次解禁呈现明显分化,股东提前表态锁仓、基本面扎实的公司,解禁日抛压较小,而估值虚高、缺乏基本面支撑的公司,解禁后往往遭遇大幅暴跌,部分公司市值缩水至巅峰的零头。

3. 普通投资参考:历史数据显示,近六成公司在解禁前后三个月跑输恒生指数,投资需避开估值虚高、解禁比例高的标的,优先选择基本面扎实、核心股东愿意长期锁仓的标的。

本次港股万亿解禁潮,给计划赴港上市或已经上市的品牌企业带来多方面启示,核心干货如下:

1. 行业背景:2025年港股迎来IPO大年,全年募资额超过此前三年总和,拿下全球新股募资冠军,现在随着锁定期到期,迎来史上最大解禁潮,可选消费和科技、医疗一并成为解禁集中的三大板块,占比超过六成。

2. 市场规律:解禁后的股价分化本质是对品牌价值的检验,只有基本面扎实、得到市场认可的品牌,才能扛住抛压,仅靠叙事包装、估值虚高的品牌,解禁后必然遭遇大量抛售,市值大幅缩水。

3. 经营启示:品牌赴港上市后,不仅要做好市值管理,更要夯实核心竞争力,维持核心股东信心,提前引导核心股东释放长期持有信号,能有效缓解解禁带来的抛压和情绪波动,保住品牌市场价值。

本次港股史上最大解禁潮,给相关从业者带来清晰的机会、风险提示和应对参考,核心内容如下:

1. 市场环境:当前港交所对科技、消费、高端制造企业的吸引力仍在提升,今年以来IPO发行密集,目前排队等待上市的申请超过500宗,创下历史新高,赴港上市依然是企业融资发展的重要渠道。

2. 风险提示:解禁不等于直接抛售,但历史统计显示,解禁前后三个月是股价压力最大的阶段,近六成公司跑输恒生指数,大比例集中解禁容易引发市场情绪恐慌,估值虚高的企业可能出现单日跌幅超30%甚至腰斩的极端情况。

3. 应对和机会:如果企业基本面扎实,可以提前组织核心股东表态锁仓,创始人释放长期发展信心,能有效稳定市场情绪;如果市场情绪带来错杀,解禁利空出尽后,优质企业也会迎来估值修复的机会。

本次港股解禁潮背后反映出硬科技制造领域的资本动向,给生产制造工厂带来多方面启示,核心干货如下:

1. 商业机会:当前资本对AI、GPU、高端制造、存储等领域认可度很高,大量相关制造企业2025年扎堆赴港上市获得大额融资,有核心技术、产品竞争力的制造工厂,可以把握当前资本对硬科技的热情,对接资本谋求上市,获得扩张发展的资金。

2. 市场反馈:本次解禁潮中,具备核心技术、扎实基本面的制造企业,即使遭遇解禁也能获得市场买盘支撑,而没有核心竞争力、仅靠概念炒作的企业,解禁后很快出现市值崩塌,价值被打回原形。

3. 转型启示:当前市场高度认可制造工厂的数字化、科技转型方向,工厂上市获得融资后,需要持续投入技术研发和产品升级,夯实自身基本面,才能在上市后应对各类流动性考验,获得长期稳定的发展空间。

本次港股万亿解禁潮,暴露出行业新的需求和痛点,给各类相关服务商指明了业务方向,核心内容如下:

1. 行业发展趋势:2025年港股迎来IPO大年,对应2026年迎来史上最大规模解禁潮,一级市场VC/PE、被投企业、上市公司股东都产生了大量和解禁退出相关的服务需求,相关业务规模会迎来明显增长。

2. 核心客户痛点:一方面,上市公司面对大比例解禁,容易出现股价大幅波动,影响企业市场信心和后续融资;另一方面,VC/PE等投资机构需要退出兑现收益,大规模集中减持容易压低股价,影响整体退出收益。

3. 解决方案方向:服务商可以针对不同客户需求开发对应服务,针对上市公司可以提供解禁预期管理服务,协助企业对接核心股东,推动股东表态锁仓或延长持有,向市场传递信心稳定股价;针对投资机构可以提供分批减持规划服务,降低对市场的冲击,保障退出收益。

本次史上最大解禁潮对港股交易平台提出了新的考验,也指明了后续运营优化的方向,核心干货如下:

1. 当前平台面临的核心问题:一边是大量企业排队申请上市,目前排队申请已经超过500宗创历史新高,平台IPO业务持续繁荣;另一边,2025年的密集IPO带来了2026年的集中解禁,创纪录的解禁规模带来了巨大的流动性承接压力,部分个股解禁暴跌已经影响了市场信心。

2. 现有规律总结:统计显示近六成公司在解禁前后三个月跑输大盘,大规模集中解禁很容易引发市场情绪恐慌,放大市场波动,对平台整体流动性和信心都有负面影响。

3. 运营优化方向:平台可以优化限售解禁相关规则,引导企业分散解禁时间,避免大规模筹码集中释放冲击市场;同时加强上市企业基本面监管,抑制概念炒作,维护市场定价理性;持续吸引优质核心资产上市,优化市场结构,提升市场整体流动性承接能力。

本次港股2026年万亿解禁潮是资本市场的新事件,给产业和资本研究提供了很多新的启示和样本,核心内容如下:

1. 产业新动向:港交所经过18C等一系列制度改革后,对国内科技企业的吸引力大幅提升,2025年港股募资额拿下全球第一,大量AI、生物医药、高端制造企业赴港上市,说明香港已经成为国内科技企业融资的核心阵地,产业和资本的联动格局已经改变。

2. 新暴露的问题:本次史上最大解禁潮,暴露出港股市场流动性承接能力的大考,也反映出一级市场投资的核心逻辑:IPO只是完成了定价,解禁退出兑现才是投资的闭环,账面浮盈只有兑现为现金才是真实收益。

3. 研究启示:本次解禁潮中不同基本面企业的股价分化,再次验证了企业长期价值由基本面支撑的逻辑,也为研究限售解禁对股价的影响、一级市场退出规律提供了全新的大样本,后续可以深入研究股东行为对市场稳定的影响,为完善资本市场制度提供参考。

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Quick Summary

Hong Kong stocks is experiencing its largest ever locked-share解禁浪潮, and here are the key takeaways and investment insights for general investors:

1. Scale and timing: The total size of解禁 shares in 2026 will reach HKD 1.55 trillion to 1.7 trillion, a nearly threefold jump from 2025 and an all-time high. The解禁 wave began in July, and will peak in September when HKD 530 billion in shares will become tradable, accounting for one-third of the full-year total. The concentrated解禁 chips are primarily in three sectors: AI, high-end manufacturing, and healthcare.

2. Market performance pattern: This解禁 wave is seeing sharp divergence between stocks. Companies where core shareholders have pledged to continue holding shares and boast solid fundamentals face very limited selling pressure on解禁 day. By contrast, companies with inflated valuations and no fundamental support often see steep crashes after解禁, with some seeing their market capitalization shrink to a tiny fraction of their peak value.

3. Investment guidance for retail investors: Historical data shows nearly 60% of stocks underperform the Hang Seng Index in the three months around解禁. Investors should avoid stocks with inflated valuations and large解禁 proportions, and prioritize fundamentally solid companies whose core shareholders are willing to hold their positions long-term.

This massive HKD-trillion解禁 wave in Hong Kong stocks offers multiple key insights for brands planning to list or already listed in Hong Kong:

1. Industry background: 2025 was a record IPO year for Hong Kong stocks, with full-year fundraising exceeding the sum of the previous three years and earning Hong Kong the top spot globally for new issuance fundraising. Now, as lock-up periods expire, the largest ever解禁 wave has arrived. Optional consumer brands, technology companies, and healthcare firms are the three most concentrated sectors for解禁, together accounting for over 60% of total volume.

2. Market pattern: The post-解禁 divergence in share prices is essentially a test of brand value. Only fundamentally solid brands that have earned market recognition can withstand selling pressure. Brands that rely solely on narrative packaging and inflated valuations will inevitably face heavy selling and sharp market cap declines after解禁.

3. Operational takeaways: After listing in Hong Kong, brands need not only solid market cap management, but also continuous strengthening of core competitiveness to maintain core shareholder confidence. Preemptively guiding core shareholders to signal long-term holding commitments can effectively ease selling pressure and market sentiment volatility from解禁, protecting the brand's market value.

This unprecedented解禁 wave in Hong Kong stocks provides clear risk warnings, opportunity outlooks, and guidance for relevant industry practitioners:

1. Market environment: The Hong Kong Stock Exchange continues to grow in appeal for technology, consumer, and high-end manufacturing companies. IPO issuance has been brisk this year, and the pipeline of pending listing applications now exceeds 500, an all-time high. A Hong Kong IPO remains a key financing channel for companies looking to fund expansion.

2. Risk warning:解禁 does not guarantee immediate selling, but historical statistics show the three months around解禁 are the period of greatest downside pressure for share prices, with nearly 60% of stocks underperforming the Hang Seng Index. Large-scale concentrated解禁 can easily trigger market panic, and companies with inflated valuations could see extreme single-day drops of over 30%, or even 50%, in their share price.

3. Mitigation and opportunities: For fundamentally solid companies, preemptively organizing core shareholders to pledge to maintain holdings, and having founders signal confidence in long-term development, can effectively stabilize market sentiment. If high-quality companies are incorrectly sold off amid broad market panic, they will likely see a valuation recovery once the解禁 negative sentiment is fully priced in.

This Hong Kong解禁 wave reflects shifting capital trends in the hard technology manufacturing sector, and offers multiple key insights for manufacturing factories:

1. Business opportunities: Capital currently has high confidence in AI, GPU, high-end manufacturing, and memory chip sectors. A large number of relevant manufacturing companies staged clustered IPOs in Hong Kong in 2025, raising substantial capital. Manufacturing factories with core technology and competitive product offerings can capitalize on capital's current enthusiasm for hard technology, secure financing via an IPO, and obtain capital for expansion and growth.

2. Market feedback: Among this解禁 wave, manufacturing companies with core technology and solid fundamentals still see buying support even during解禁. By contrast, companies without core competitiveness that were only hyped as concept stocks quickly suffered market cap collapses after解禁, with their valuations falling back to intrinsic levels.

3. Transformation insights: The market strongly endorses the digital and technological transformation direction for manufacturing factories. After going public and raising capital, factories need to continue investing in R&D and product upgrading to strengthen their fundamentals. This allows them to withstand various liquidity tests post-listing, and secure long-term stable growth space.

This HKD-trillion解禁 wave in Hong Kong stocks has exposed new industry demand and pain points, and clarified business directions for relevant service providers:

1. Industry development trend: 2025 was a record IPO year for Hong Kong stocks, leading to 2026's unprecedented解禁 wave. Primary market VC/PE firms, portfolio companies, and listed company shareholders all have generated substantial new demand for services related to exit via解禁. This business segment will see clear volume growth in coming periods.

2. Core client pain points: On one hand, listed companies facing large-scale解禁 often see sharp share price volatility that damages market confidence and future financing ability. On the other hand, VC/PE and other investment institutions need to exit to realize returns, but large-scale concentrated selling tends to push down share prices and erode overall exit returns.

3. Solution direction: Service providers can develop tailored offerings for different client needs. For listed companies, they can offer解禁 expectation management services, helping companies coordinate with core shareholders to encourage holding pledges or extended lock-up periods, and communicate confidence to the market to stabilize share prices. For investment institutions, they can offer phased selling planning services to reduce market impact and preserve exit returns.

This unprecedented解禁 wave presents new tests for Hong Kong stock trading platforms, and clarifies directions for future operational optimization:

1. Core current challenges for platforms: On one hand, a record 500+ companies are currently queuing for IPOs, keeping platform IPO business booming. On the other hand, the concentrated 2025 IPO wave has led to concentrated解禁 in 2026, and the record-breaking解禁 size has created enormous liquidity absorption pressure. The post-解禁 crash of some individual stocks has already damaged overall market confidence.

2. Pattern summary: Statistics show nearly 60% of stocks underperform the broader market in the three months around解禁. Large-scale concentrated解禁 easily triggers market panic, amplifies volatility, and negatively impacts overall platform liquidity and market confidence.

3. Operational optimization direction: Platforms can adjust locked-share解禁 rules to encourage companies to stagger解禁 timelines, avoiding concentrated selling that shocks the market. They can also strengthen oversight of listed companies' fundamentals to curb concept hype and maintain rational market pricing. Continued attraction of high-quality core assets to list will also improve market structure and boost the overall market's liquidity absorption capacity.

The 2026 HKD-trillion解禁 wave in Hong Kong stocks is a new development in global capital markets, and offers many new insights and research samples for industry and capital researchers:

1. New industry trends: Following a series of regulatory reforms including the Chapter 18C regime, the Hong Kong Stock Exchange has significantly increased its appeal to Chinese technology companies. Hong Kong topped global IPO fundraising rankings in 2025, with large numbers of AI, biopharmaceutical, and high-end manufacturing companies listing there. This confirms Hong Kong has become a core financing hub for Chinese technology companies, and the linkage pattern between industry and capital has fundamentally changed.

2. Newly exposed issues: This unprecedented解禁 wave has created a major test of Hong Kong stock market's liquidity absorption capacity, and also clarified the core logic of primary market investment: an IPO only completes pricing, and exit via解禁 is what closes the investment cycle. Paper gains only become real returns once they are cashed out.

3. Research insights: The divergence in share price performance between companies of different fundamentals during this解禁 wave reconfirms the long-held logic that long-term corporate value is supported by fundamentals. It also provides an unprecedented large new sample for research on the impact of解禁 on share prices and primary market exit patterns. Future research can dig deeper into how shareholder behavior impacts market stability, to provide reference for improving capital market systems.

Disclaimer: The "Quick Summary" content is entirely generated by AI. Please exercise discretion when interpreting the information. For issues or corrections, please email run@ebrun.com .

I am a Brand Seller Factory Service Provider Marketplace Seller Researcher Read it again.

流动性大考。

作者/周佳丽

报道/投资界PEdaily

情况比想象中猛烈。

最近港股,一批明星公司集中迎来限售股解禁,市场的回应大跌眼镜——

智谱解禁日逆势大涨1000亿港元,隔了一天却掉了约20%;天数智芯演绎相似的剧本:解禁当天波澜不惊,次日大跌近20%;同属AI赛道的MiniMax经历一番大涨后回调,云知声则在解禁首日几近腰斩。

如此一幕,看得人心情复杂。

这或许是今年港股万亿解禁潮中最真实的写照。综合多家机构测算,2026年港股解禁规模高达1.7万亿港元,7月只是开始,9月将迎来更高峰——单月解禁市值高达5300亿港元,占全年三分之一,在港股历史上极为罕见。

经历大涨之后,真正的考验来了。而分化,成了这场洪流中最耐人寻味的地方。

直面解禁大考

跌了

智谱一度要打破“解禁即大跌”的魔咒。

记得今年1月,智谱以116.2港元的发行价登陆港交所,顶着“全球大模型第一股”的光环,上市首日市值550亿港元,表现算不上惊艳。

但此后半年,它走出了AI时代最陡峭的曲线——从500亿到5000亿,花了五个月;而从5000亿到破万亿,只用了一个月。6月22日,智谱开盘大涨超40%,市值一度冲破1.3万亿港元,较上市首日涨逾20倍。

临近解禁,智谱的股价开始剧烈颠簸。7月8日,约2560万股基石投资者股份迎来解禁,约是总股本的6%,解禁市值超过400亿港元。但解禁前,近七成基石股东明确表态锁仓不卖,市场最担心的抛压提前卸下了大半。

当天开盘,智谱低开近3%,一度急挫约10%。但很快买盘涌入,股价掉头向上,盘中涨近15%,收盘稳稳站上1800港元,单日市值大涨千亿港元,背后十余家基石投资者浮盈超13倍。

一度大涨1000亿港元,在港股解禁史上堪称罕见,只是后面的剧情令人意外。

晚于智谱一天,MiniMax在7月9日迎来首次大规模解禁——基石解禁和Pre-IPO老股东限售股双重解禁叠加,约占总股本的50%,是这波解禁队伍里结构最复杂、体量最大的一个。

解禁前夜,超八成基石股东表态长期持有,创始团队自愿延长锁定期12个月,股价盘中一度涨超20%。但来到解禁当天,依然收跌。

同一时间,创始人闫俊杰发布内部全员信宣布,直到公司实现AGI的那一天,他将不再从公司领取任何薪酬。“市场会有波动,外界会有杂音,但前进的方向不会改变。”表态意味不言而喻。

壁仞科技同样备受关注。今年1月2日,壁仞科技登陆港股,拿下“港股GPU第一股”,是18C章程以来募资额最高的公司,半年间市值最高冲到1700亿港元。直到7月2日基石投资者解禁,当天出现波动。

不过,即便经历解禁日大跌,MiniMax和壁仞科技较发行价仍有较大涨幅,基石投资者账面浮盈尚在。

和智谱、MiniMax半年期的基石锁定期不同,“港股AGI第一股”云知声上市时基石投资者承诺12个月锁定期。不久前公司上市满一年,基石、早期财务投资人、控股股东的限售筹码同步集中释放,盘中跌超40%,股价已大幅破发,市值仅剩巅峰时期的零头。

药捷安康的遭遇更为跌宕。此前公司涨幅一度超过50倍,市值冲破2500亿港元,但解禁阀门一开便撑不住了——当天跌幅超60%,市值缩水至不足50亿港元。前后落差,堪称过山车。

由此望去,那些不被关注的角落里,崩塌更剧烈。

从上市潮到解禁潮

流动性现状

如此一幕,始于去年那场轰轰烈烈的赴港上市潮。

2025年,港交所迎来IPO大年——119家企业登陆港交所,募资总额达2869亿港元,超过此前三年之和,也让港股一举拿下全球新股募资冠军。

IPO繁荣的另一面,是一批限售股的集中到期。

根据港股规则,基石投资者锁定期通常为6个月,控股股东及主要股东多为6至12个月。这意味着,2025年那一波密集上市的科技、生物医药公司,其基石投资者和Pre-IPO股东的锁定期,正好在2026年陆续届满。

一场规模空前的解禁潮就在眼前。

综合浦银国际、Wind等机构测算,2026年港股待解禁市值高达1.55万亿至1.7万亿港元,较2025年的约6000亿港元猛增近三倍,创下有记录以来的新高。

这些筹码高度集中于信息技术、可选消费及医疗健康三大板块,占比超过六成,部分企业的解禁股份占总股本比例超过50%,流通盘近乎翻倍。

从节奏上看,7月是基石投资者解禁的最高峰,单月规模超过2000亿港元,鸣鸣很忙、兆易创新、维立志博、精锋医疗等近30家公司将在本月陆续开启解禁,标的集中在AI大模型、GPU、存储及高端制造等热门赛道。

更大的考验在9月。浦银国际预计,9月单月解禁市值高达5300亿港元,约占全年的三分之一,这个数字甚至超过了2025年全年的IPO募资总额。其中绝大部分来自紫金黄金国际控股股东的大额解禁。

巨量筹码即将松动,难免让人捏一把汗。毕竟此前已有多只股票在解禁日闪崩,单日跌幅超过20%、30%甚至腰斩的案例也不少见。

虽然解禁不等于抛售,但情绪上的波动往往先一步到来。浦银国际做过一项统计,覆盖了2018年至2025年间766家设有锁定期的新股,结果显示,限售股解禁前后的三个月是股价压力最大的阶段,近六成公司跑输了恒生指数。

“当前状况已显著不同。”一位base香港的投行朋友这样判断,从历史看,踩踏事件多发生于市场低迷、流动性匮乏之时,若未来三到六个月市场维持上行预期,解禁股东更倾向于分批减持,而非一拥而上。

但谁也无法精确预判市场情绪,流动性始终是港股绕不开的一道考题。

回归理性

一家公司到底值多少钱

这边解禁跌势弥漫,那边赴港队伍却是浩浩荡荡。

今年以来,港交所锣声密集得让人恍惚。仅这一周,便一口气迎来Momenta、立讯精密、珞石机器人、晶合集成、易控智驾等15家新股,甚至上演了一天7个IPO集体鸣锣的名场面。

但热闹归热闹,下半年的气氛已有微妙变化。

最直观的体感,首日破发多了起来。最新挂牌的这一批新股中,普源精电首日跌超30%,同仁堂医养破发近40%,给今年港股的火热浇了一盆冷水。

与之形成反差的是,港交所大门外的队伍还在加长。目前,包括保密递交在内的上市申请已超过500宗,创下历史新高。大家等着IPO上岸的心情,溢于言表。

“港股真的能接得住吗?”身边一位投行朋友变得谨慎起来。

过往经验反复提醒我们,IPO的狂欢,并不等于流动性的保障。真正的考验,往往是在限售股解禁、筹码大量释放的关键节点,市场是否依然愿意关注并承接。

而流动性这面镜子,映照出的不仅是市场的态度,更是对一家公司价值底色的终极拷问。若没有足够的基本面做底,再动人的叙事,也扛不住真金白银的抛压。

眼下,万亿解禁正在陆续开闸。对有些公司来说,这是估值回归的残酷时刻;而对另一些,或许是利空出尽的转折点。

此情此景,创投机构也看在眼里。今年这一波解禁公司背后,站着一众VC/PE投资人,他们见证了被投公司IPO时的锣声与欢呼,账面上的倍数一度耀眼得令人艳羡。

但走进解禁窗口,浮盈终究只是一串数字,以什么价格退出、能退出多少,才是真正的现实拷问。只有把筹码换成现金,才算真正走完投资的闭环。

IPO负责定价,解禁负责验价——潮水退去,谁在裸泳,悄然浮现。

注:文/周佳丽,文章来源:投资界(公众号ID:pedaily2012),本文为作者独立观点,不代表亿邦动力立场。

文章来源:投资界

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FAQ回顾

2026年港股解禁规模有多大?

综合浦银国际、Wind等机构测算,2026年港股待解禁市值高达1.55万亿至1.7万亿港元,较2025年的约6000亿港元猛增近三倍,创下有记录以来的新高,解禁筹码集中在信息技术、可选消费及医疗健康三大板块,占比超六成。

港股限售股解禁对股价有什么影响?

浦银国际统计2018年至2025年间766家设有锁定期的新股发现,限售股解禁前后三个月是股价压力最大的阶段,近六成公司跑输恒生指数。若市场维持上行预期,解禁股东更倾向于分批减持,股价波动会相对更小。

2026年港股解禁节奏是怎样的?

2026年7月是港股基石投资者解禁最高峰,单月规模超2000亿港元,标的集中在AI大模型、GPU、存储及高端制造等热门赛道。9月将迎来全年更高峰,单月解禁市值高达5300亿港元,约占全年的三分之一。

港股限售股锁定期通常是多久?

根据港股规则,基石投资者锁定期通常为6个月,控股股东及主要股东的锁定期多为6至12个月。2025年密集赴港上市的科技、生物医药公司,其限售股大多在2026年陆续到期,催生了本轮大规模解禁潮。

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