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45℃的欧洲 把中国空调抬到新level

定焦One团队 2026-07-06 14:44
定焦One团队 2026/07/06 14:44

邦小白快读

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本文核心信息是2026年欧洲极端高温意外带火中国自主品牌空调,推动中国空调出海从产能出海转向品牌出海,核心干货如下:

1.市场变化:欧洲空调整体渗透率仅约20%,远低于美日的90%左右,此前因老建筑安装限制、环保观念,空调属于非必需品,2026年持续高温让空调变成生存刚需,中国空调在欧洲多个平台缺货,美的移动空调被炒到原价的两到三倍。

2.头部品牌路径:国内三大头部空调企业出海路径差异明显,美的主打全球规模布局,多品牌分层覆盖,全球市场份额第一;海尔主打本地化深度运营,海外营收占比超一半,通过收购建立本地运营体系;格力主打高占比自主品牌,目前规模仍处于追赶阶段。

3.现存问题:当前中国空调出海仍面临贸易规则不确定、欧盟技术标准调整、品牌心智未建立三大问题。

本次欧洲高温爆发的空调需求,给中国空调品牌出海带来了明确的趋势参考和经验借鉴,核心干货如下:

1.消费趋势与机会:欧洲空调市场增长空间极大,原有渗透率极低,极端气候已经改变消费者认知,让空调从非必需品转为刚需;适配欧洲老建筑安装限制的移动分体、便携式空调需求爆发,具备产品优势的品牌可以快速切入。

2.可参考的品牌出海路径:可以参考头部品牌的差异化路线,想要做规模可走美的多市场多品牌分层布局路线,想要做深市场可走海尔本地化收购运营路线,想要做利润可走格力高自主品牌占比路线。

3.需要注意的风险:需要提前适配欧盟2027年生效的制冷剂新环保标准,提前应对贸易规则的不确定性,同时要长期投入终端品牌心智建设,不能只停留在产品卖爆的阶段。

欧洲空调需求爆发给空调出海卖家带来了明确的增量机会,同时也需要警惕相关风险,核心干货总结如下:

1.增量市场机会:当前中国空调行业国内需求疲弱,内销零售额下滑超10%,整体库存接近6000万台,出口多数区域下滑,只有欧洲市场逆势增长,2026年前5个月中国对西欧多国空调出口量翻倍,6月出口同比增长72.8%,是行业下行期少有的可见增量市场。

2.可借鉴的经验:头部品牌三种出海模式各有优势,中小卖家可以结合自身资源选择,想要走量可以参考美的多区域布局思路,想要扎根本地市场可以参考海尔本地化运营思路,想要做品牌可以参考格力高自主品牌路线。

3.风险提示:当前出海最大的风险是贸易规则不确定性,关税变动、技术标准调整都会带来额外合规成本,甚至造成前期投入沉没;当前只是产品需求爆发,品牌心智还未建立,需要长期布局,不能只看短期流量。

本次欧洲空调抢购潮给中国空调生产工厂带来了新的商业机会,也提出了新的转型要求,核心干货如下:

1.商业转型机会:全球80%的空调、90%的空调核心压缩机都产自中国,原有多数工厂以贴牌代工为主,此次欧洲高温让中国自主品牌获得了终端消费者的直接认知,是工厂从代工转向做自有品牌的绝佳契机,且欧洲市场渗透率低,未来增长空间极大。

2.产品生产设计需求:欧洲老建筑多,统一安装空调难度大,移动分体、便携式空调更适配本地市场需求,工厂可以针对性调整产品线;同时欧盟2027年起要求12kW以下一体式空调制冷剂GWP低于150,国内主流的R32冷媒不达标,需要提前调整供应链和生产体系。

3.转型启示:工厂要提前布局多区域全球市场,分散单一市场的贸易政策风险,同时加大智能化技术研发,依托中国在智能控制、能耗优化上的迭代优势,建立新的产品竞争力,逐步从制造优势转向品牌技术优势。

中国空调出海已经进入从产能出海到品牌出海的新阶段,欧洲市场的爆发给家电出海服务商带来了新的方向,核心干货如下:

1.行业发展新趋势:当前国内空调市场存量竞争,内销下滑、库存高企,出口整体受贸易壁垒影响承压,欧洲成为全球空调市场的增长引擎,2025冷年欧洲空调出口量同比增长40.6%,中国品牌开始大规模以自主品牌进入欧洲终端市场,出海需求进入升级阶段。

2.客户核心痛点:出海企业普遍面临三大核心痛点,一是地缘贸易规则不确定性强,政策变动频繁,企业很难及时应对;二是欧盟等目标市场技术标准调整快,企业需要承担额外的合规成本,调整产线供应链风险大;三是产品卖出去但终端品牌心智建立难,缺乏本地化营销资源。

3.服务商机会:可以围绕以上痛点开发对应解决方案,提供贸易合规咨询、技术标准适配服务、本地化品牌营销服务,帮助不同规模的出海企业降低转型成本,抓住欧洲市场的增长红利。

本次欧洲空调需求爆发,给跨境平台的招商、运营带来了新的启示,核心干货总结如下:

1.市场需求新变化:2026年欧洲极端高温后,消费者对空调的需求从非必需转为刚需,谷歌搜索“空调安装”增长130%,亚马逊等主流平台上中国产移动、便携式空调已经集体缺货,消费者对稳定的中国空调货源有强烈需求。

2.招商运营方向:可以针对性调整招商方向,重点引入中国头部空调自主品牌入驻,优先引入适配欧洲老建筑安装场景的移动分体、便携式空调产品,匹配当前爆发的刚需,带动平台增长。

3.风险规避方向:要及时跟进欧盟的技术标准变动,提前向商家告知2027年制冷剂新标的要求,提醒商家提前合规,同时要及时同步地缘贸易政策变动信息,帮助商家调整货源布局,规避政策风险,也避免平台出现大规模不合规商品。

本次欧洲中国空调抢购潮,折射出中国家电出海产业的新动向,也暴露了行业新阶段的新问题,核心研究素材总结如下:

1.产业新动向:中国空调出海已经完成从早期贴牌代工到自主品牌出海的转型,此次欧洲需求爆发成为转型的关键转折点,国内头部品牌已经摸索出三种差异化的出海商业模式,分别是美的的全球规模化多市场布局模式、海尔的本地化深度分布式运营模式、格力的高自主品牌占比追赶模式,三种模式各有优劣势,为产业研究提供了典型样本。

2.行业新问题:当前中国空调出海仍面临三个核心问题,一是地缘政治带来的贸易规则不确定性强,关税、技术标准频繁变动,给企业全球布局带来持续挑战;二是中国虽然占据全球九成核心零部件产能,但是品牌端仍落后于日韩品牌,终端心智尚未建立;三是标准升级带来的合规成本压力,会淘汰弱势企业,也给头部企业带来新机会。

3.研究启示:中国家电出海正在依托智能化技术迭代打造新的竞争优势,有望逐步打破日韩品牌主导的高端市场格局,值得长期跟踪研究。

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Quick Summary

This article summarizes how the unexpected extreme heatwave in Europe in 2026 has boosted demand for Chinese self-owned brand air conditioners, accelerating the shift of Chinese AC manufacturers from exporting production capacity to exporting their own brands. Key takeaways are as follows:

1. Market shift: The overall air conditioner penetration rate in Europe is only around 20%, far lower than the roughly 90% rate in the U.S. and Japan. Previously, air conditioners were considered non-essential due to installation restrictions in older European buildings and local environmental attitudes. The persistent heatwave in 2026 turned air conditioning into a survival necessity, leading to stockouts of Chinese AC products across multiple European platforms. Midea's portable air conditioners were even resold at two to three times their original price.

2. Different paths for leading brands: China's top three AC players have adopted distinct global expansion strategies. Midea focuses on global scale expansion through a multi-brand, tiered coverage model and holds the largest global market share. Haier prioritizes deep localized operations, with overseas revenue accounting for more than half of its total, and has built a full local operation system through acquisitions. Gree focuses on maintaining a high proportion of self-branded products, but its global scale is still in a catching-up phase.

3. Existing challenges: Chinese AC exporters currently face three major hurdles: uncertain trade rules, evolving EU technical standards, and low brand awareness among European consumers.

The air conditioner demand boom triggered by the European heatwave offers clear trend insights and practical lessons for Chinese AC brands going global. Key takeaways are as follows:

1. Consumer trends and opportunities: The European AC market has enormous room for growth given its historically low penetration. Extreme weather has shifted consumer perceptions, repositioning air conditioning from a non-essential luxury to an essential good. Demand for portable and split-unit models adapted for installation in older European buildings has surged, creating a fast entry point for brands with competitive product offerings.

2. Actionable global expansion paths: Brands can learn from the differentiated strategies of leading players: pursue Midea's multi-market, multi-brand tiered layout strategy to scale up; adopt Haier's localized acquisition and operation approach to build deep market roots; or follow Gree's high self-branded share path to maximize profit margins.

3. Key risks to watch: Brands need to adapt early to the EU's new refrigerant environmental standards taking effect in 2027, proactively prepare for trade rule uncertainty, and make long-term investments in building terminal brand awareness, rather than stopping at just achieving short-term product sales spikes.

The boom in European AC demand has created clear incremental opportunities for cross-border AC sellers, while also bringing notable risks to watch. Key takeaways are as follows:

1. Incremental market opportunity: Domestic demand for air conditioners in China is weak, with retail sales down more than 10% and total industry inventory approaching 60 million units. Exports to most regions are also declining, but the European market is growing against the trend. In the first five months of 2026, China's AC exports to multiple Western European countries doubled, and June exports grew 72.8% year-on-year, making it one of the few clear incremental growth markets in a downturn for the industry.

2. Lessons to learn: The three expansion models of leading brands each have unique advantages, and small and medium-sized sellers can choose a path that aligns with their own resources: follow Midea's multi-region layout approach to drive sales volume; adopt Haier's localized operation strategy to build roots in local markets; or pursue Gree's high self-branded route to build a long-term brand presence.

3. Risk warnings: The biggest current risk for global expansion is trade policy uncertainty. Tariff adjustments and technical standard changes can lead to additional compliance costs and even turn early investments into sunk costs. The current boom is driven primarily by product demand, and brand awareness among end consumers remains undeveloped, requiring long-term strategic planning rather than focusing only on short-term traffic.

The buying frenzy for Chinese air conditioners in Europe has brought new business opportunities and new transformation requirements for Chinese AC manufacturing factories. Key insights are as follows:

1. Business transformation opportunity: 80% of the world's air conditioners and 90% of core AC compressors are produced in China. Most Chinese factories have historically operated as original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) for foreign brands. This European heatwave has put Chinese self-owned brands in front of end consumers directly, creating an excellent window for factories to shift from OEM to building their own brands. Combined with Europe's low current AC penetration, the market offers enormous long-term growth potential.

2. Product design and production requirements: Most European buildings are older, making centralized AC installation difficult. Portable and split-unit AC models are far better aligned with local market demand, so factories can adjust their product lines to target this niche. In addition, starting from 2027, the EU requires the global warming potential (GWP) of refrigerants for all integrated air conditioners below 12kW to be lower than 150. The dominant R32 refrigerant used by most Chinese manufacturers does not meet this standard, so factories need to adjust their supply chains and production systems in advance.

3. Transformation insights: Factories should proactively build a presence in multiple global markets to diversify trade policy risks from over-reliance on a single market. At the same time, they should increase investment in intelligent technology R&D, leverage China's iterative advantages in intelligent control and energy efficiency optimization to build new product competitiveness, and gradually shift from a manufacturing advantage to a competitive advantage built on brand and technology.

Chinese air conditioner exports have entered a new stage: shifting from exporting production capacity to exporting self-owned brands. The boom in the European market has opened up new directions for service providers supporting home appliances going global. Key takeaways are as follows:

1. New industry development trends: China's domestic AC market is now characterized by stock-side competition, with declining domestic sales and high inventory. Overall exports are also under pressure from trade barriers, and Europe has become the key growth engine for the global AC market. In the 2025 cooling season, China's AC exports to Europe grew 40.6% year-on-year. Chinese brands are now entering the European end market in large numbers under their own brands, meaning global expansion demand is entering an upgraded phase.

2. Core pain points of clients: Exporting companies generally face three core pain points: first, strong uncertainty in geoeconomic trade rules, with frequent policy changes that are hard for enterprises to respond to in a timely manner; second, technical standards in target markets such as the EU are adjusted rapidly, forcing enterprises to bear additional compliance costs and face high risks when adjusting production lines and supply chains; third, even when products sell well, it remains difficult to build brand recognition among end consumers, and enterprises lack access to localized marketing resources.

3. New opportunities for service providers: Service providers can develop targeted solutions to address these pain points, including trade compliance consulting, technical standard adaptation services, and localized brand marketing services. These offerings can help global expansion enterprises of all sizes reduce transformation costs and capture growth opportunities in the European market.

The boom in European AC demand has brought new insights for cross-border platform recruitment and operations. Key takeaways are as follows:

1. New shifts in market demand: After the 2026 extreme heatwave in Europe, consumer demand for air conditioning shifted from non-essential to essential. Google searches for "air conditioner installation" rose 130%, and Chinese-made portable and mobile air conditioners are collectively out of stock on major platforms such as Amazon, showing strong consumer demand for a stable supply of Chinese AC products.

2. Adjustments to merchant recruitment and operations: Platforms can adjust their recruitment strategies accordingly, prioritize onboarding leading Chinese self-owned AC brands, and give preference to portable and split-unit models adapted for installation in older European buildings to match the current surging demand and drive platform growth.

3. Risk mitigation guidance: Platforms should closely track changes to EU technical standards, proactively inform merchants of the new 2027 refrigerant requirements, remind merchants to achieve compliance early, and synchronize updates on geoeconomic trade policy changes in a timely manner. This helps merchants adjust their supply layouts, mitigate policy risks, and prevents large-scale non-compliant products from appearing on the platform.

The buying frenzy for Chinese air conditioners in Europe reflects new trends in the globalization of China's home appliance industry, and also exposes new problems emerging in this new stage of industry development. Key research takeaways are as follows:

1. New industry trends: Chinese AC exports have completed the transition from early OEM manufacturing to self-owned brand expansion, and this European demand boom has served as a key turning point for this transition. China's leading AC brands have developed three distinct differentiated global expansion business models: Midea's global scale multi-market layout model, Haier's deep localized distributed operation model, and Gree's high self-branded share catching-up model. All three models have unique strengths and weaknesses, providing representative case studies for industrial research.

2. New industry problems: Chinese AC exporters currently face three core challenges: first, strong trade rule uncertainty driven by geopolitics, with frequent changes to tariffs and technical standards creating ongoing challenges for corporate global layout; second, while China controls 90% of global core component production capacity, Chinese brands still lag behind Japanese and South Korean peers in brand building, and have not yet established awareness among end consumers; third, compliance cost pressure brought by standard upgrades will eliminate weaker players, while creating new opportunities for leading brands.

3. Research insights: Chinese home appliance exporters are building new competitive advantages based on intelligent technology iteration, and are well-positioned to gradually break the high-end market pattern long dominated by Japanese and South Korean brands. This sector deserves long-term tracking and research.

Disclaimer: The "Quick Summary" content is entirely generated by AI. Please exercise discretion when interpreting the information. For issues or corrections, please email run@ebrun.com .

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美的讲规模,海尔讲深度,格力在紧追。

定焦One(dingjiaoone)原创

作者 | 李梦冉

编辑 | 魏佳

2026年6月下旬,巴黎的日照时间超过15个小时。夜里11点,气温仍然徘徊在30℃以上。

社交媒体上,不少人分享着他们的避暑经历。在Clamart一间50平方米的小公寓里,Eddy白天所有窗帘都拉下来隔热,那台一体式空调,从早到晚不停运转;另一边,在巴黎13区一栋老公寓里,留学生小林已经记不清这是第几次尝试下单抢购那台标价999欧元的美的移动空调,夜里太热,她只能不停起身洗澡,甚至一晚能洗十几次。

这个6月,法国经历了有记录以来最热的一个月,多地连续超40℃。世界卫生组织总干事谭德塞28日在社交媒体发文称,自6月21日以来,欧洲已有超过1300例超额死亡记录与高温天气有关。

同一时间,法国“空调安装”的谷歌搜索量增长了130%,亚马逊、MediaMarkt、Otto等平台上,便携式空调集体缺货。一台999欧的中国品牌美的空调,在欧洲被抢成了“期货”,甚至有程序员写AI Agent全天候监测中国产的移动分体式空调库存。

欧洲高温意外带火了中国空调,但它们并不是临时挤进来的玩家。

中国家电品牌的出海史,可以追溯到上世纪90年代末,但过去更多以OEM代工或渠道供货的方式存在。有行业数据显示,全球80%的家用空调产自中国,但在出口空调中,自主品牌仅占30%左右,还有七成是贴牌代工。

这轮欧洲高温催生出的“抢购潮”,特殊之处在于,这次中国品牌是以“自主品牌”打进了欧洲消费者的视野。

01.大盘承压,欧洲成为亮点

Eddy在社交平台上提到,她所在的那栋巴黎公寓楼在6月第一次召开业主大会,讨论是否统一安装空调。

结果没有通过。有人嫌贵,有人觉得没必要,有人担心破坏建筑外观,还有人坚信“最好的空调是一棵树”。即便在连续热浪之下,空调也很难成为一个“个人说装就装”的消费品。安装往往需要经过建筑规则、邻里关系以及成本这几关。

过去很长时间里,欧洲夏季高温持续时间短暂,老建筑没有安装条件,空调并不是必需品。而且,在大部分欧洲城市,低能耗与环保长期被视为一种社会共识,即便安空调的需求存在,也长期未能转化为大规模消费行为。

因此,欧洲空调市场长期锁定在一个低渗透率的状态。法国家庭空调装机比例约25%、德国仅6%,欧洲整体约20%——对比美国的90%、日本的89%,差距悬殊。即便是普及率较高的意大利(40%以上)和西班牙(约50%),也远未达到“标配”的程度。

但2026年的高温,正在打破这个僵局,空调从欧洲人眼中的“非必需品”变成了“生存刚需”。这场突如其来的需求,对中国空调至少有两重意义,一重在品牌,一重在行业。

先看品牌。

中国品牌虽然凭借制造优势挤进去的量不算少,欧洲约占中国空调出口约20%,但以往绝大部分以OEM贴牌形式存在。奥维云网大家电事业部副总经理杨超告诉「定焦One」,“早几年核心目的就是先把货卖出去,贴牌也是一单生意,你不可能不做。”有量无牌,是过去中国空调在欧洲的处境。

今年不一样了。一款名为美的PortaSplit的移动分体空调,在欧洲被抢成了“现象级单品”。该产品售价区间为999欧元至1500欧元,在二手交易平台上,报价一度达到官方售价的两到三倍。有欧洲消费者在社交平台上调侃它“比宝可梦还稀有”,甚至询问“美的股票何时能买”。

在杨超看来,这一轮欧洲需求真正改变的是认知,盈利模型倒还谈不上多大改善。中国品牌正在从过去以代工、贴牌为主的隐性存在,开始在终端市场获得更直接的曝光与消费感知。

而从行业整体来看,这一轮欧洲需求的意义,还体现在对出口大盘的支撑上。

今年以来,中国空调行业整体仍处于压力周期之中。在国内市场,2026年1-5月,在需求疲弱、国补政策边际效应减弱以及南方多地持续强降雨等多重因素影响下,中国空调内销零售额同比下降幅度已超过10%。线上市场竞争进一步加剧、行业库存高企,截至2025年,中国空调行业总库存已接近6000万台,整体去化周期仍然较长。

出口端同样面临压力。受中东局势波动、美国高关税壁垒以及人民币阶段性走强等因素影响,2026年1-5月中国空调出口整体承压,对中东地区出口接近腰斩,对北美和拉美出口降幅均超过20%。

杨超解释,空调出口有明显的周期属性。通常2-3年为一轮周期。上一轮周期大约2023年8月到2025年4月,出口持续大幅增长。相应地,当前行业正处于周期性调整阶段。

在这种背景下,欧洲的增长格外难得。海关数据显示,今年前5个月,中国向法国、荷兰、比利时等西欧国家出口空调数量同比增长翻倍;进入6月后,中国空调对欧洲出口同比增长进一步升至72.8%。

所以,比起销量本身,欧洲这轮行情更大的价值在于,它在行业周期下行阶段,提供了一个少有的“可见增长样本”,且让中国品牌进入了当地消费视野,是从“产能出海”到“品牌出海”的重要转折点。

02.美的求广,海尔求深,格力还在追

欧洲的高温只是一个窗口,放到更长的时间线,美的、海尔、格力这三家出海主力,选择了完全不同的走法。

先看大盘。以2025冷年(2024年8月至2025年7月)为参照,这一时期整体处于上行阶段,据产业在线数据,中国家用空调出口额169.7亿美元,增长13.7%。奥维云网数据显示,同期全球家用空调总出货规模达2.21亿台,同比增长12.9%。

但增长并不均匀。欧洲凭借极端高温与低库存补货需求,出口量同比大幅增长40.6%,成为全球增长引擎;非洲增长17.6%;亚洲增长8.9%;拉美增长4.8%;而北美受美国高额关税及转口贸易影响,全冷年出口量下滑12.2%,是主要出口市场中唯一的负增长区域。

这意味着,行业增长的水位并不平均,三家公司的出海表现也所有差距。

重点看两组数据:集团层面,2025年美的集团海外收入1959亿元,占总营收42.7%,同比增长15.9%。海尔智家海外收入1545亿元,超总营收一半,占51.1%。格力电器外销收入273.75亿元,占总营收仅16.06%,同比下滑2.93%。落到空调这一品类,据欧睿国际2025年数据,美的在全球空调市场份额为12.2%,海尔为6.3%,格力为3.9%。

具体到各个品牌,空调代理陈洋向「定焦One」分析,美的在海外更偏“规模优先”的路径,早期以冲量为主,目前已经站上全球第一梯队。

美的在过去五年里一直是海外收入规模最大的中国家电企业,且海外收入远高于另外两家。

从区域结构看,美的并不依赖单一市场,在南美,家用空调销量位居行业第一;在北美,家用空调整体机销量蝉联行业榜首;在欧洲,则通过移动空调等产品切入高安装成本市场,形成阶段性爆发。

品牌布局上,美的通过多品牌矩阵分层覆盖,在海外市场,美的作为核心主品牌做规模化输出,子品牌东芝走高端,Comfee主打性价比,再通过一系列海外并购切入更细分的家电场景。

其OBM(自有品牌)收入占海外智能家居业务比重已超过45%,意味着品牌能力正在逐步增强,而不只是制造输出。

2026年上半年,美的在德、法、西、英等西欧市场空调整体销售额同比涨超70%,其中法国、西班牙市场出货量飙升108%。杨超透露,美的空调年出口大约在3000万台左右,排在第一。

美的的逻辑是广参与,全球多个市场同时铺开,不押注单一战场。

海尔走的是另一条路,更强调本地化深度,靠建厂与并购,逐步从出口转向海外本地运营。

早在2023年,海尔海外营收占比已达到52%,是三家中国最早实现海外收入超过国内的企业。

其关键特征是“本地化嵌入”。通过海尔、卡萨帝、GE Appliances、Candy、Fisher&Paykel等多个品牌,在不同市场建立起独立运营体系,如通过收购GE Appliances拿到美国家电市场入场券、收购Candy在欧洲立足。

这种模式的本质,是在海外复制“本地家电企业”,不仅仅是输出产品。

数据上,2025年海尔空调全球销量增长14.8%,海外增长12.6%,规模增幅领跑行业;区域上,海尔优势区域比较清晰——欧洲和新兴市场(东南亚/南亚/中东非)。据产业在线报告,海尔在意大利ITS渠道排名领先,在西班牙零售渠道超越日资品牌,在美国窗机市场位居前二。

陈洋认为,海尔的核心竞争力在于“扎得深”,与其说它在做出口,不如说它在做分布式全球企业体系。

相比之下,格力海外业务仍处于追赶状态。2025年其海外营收同比下滑2.93%,是五年来唯一负增长;优势区域也相对零散,巴西、中东相对集中,但整体体量小。

在前不久的格力股东大会现场,董明珠直言“出口做得不好,很惭愧,希望可以给我们留点面子,接下来保证加快速度改进。”

不过格力有一个数字值得注意,自主品牌产品销售占公司出口总额比重,由2015年的不足30%提升至70%,在“一带一路”国家占比超85%。2025年上半年,格力海外 营收163.35亿元,同比增长10.19%,结合空调行业整体来看,是2025冷年过后, 下半年进入下行期一定程度上拖累了其全年表现 。

总的来说,美的用规模和多市场换时间,海外营收最大、全球销量第一;海尔用本地化和多品牌换壁垒,海外占比最高、自主品牌最强;格力用自主品牌换利润,但规模和速度还落后。

03.卖爆之后,留下三个问题

从“卖出去”,到“卖得进”,再到“留下来”,中国空调出海正在进入一个新的阶段。但热潮之下,还有三个问题绕不开。

最直接的变量,来自地缘与贸易规则。

一边是极端高温推动下的真实需求,欧洲多国的中国空调出现阶段性紧缺;另一边,却是政策层面对贸易规则的重新审视。

但现实是,极端天气反而在放大对中国制造的依赖。CNBC评论称,“欧洲希望重新平衡与中国的贸易,但离不开中国空调。”

这种矛盾正在变成常态。2025年上半年,受美国加征关税预期影响,许多外贸企业集中提前出货,推高了短期数据但也透支了未来需求,2025冷年北美市场出口量下滑12.2%,正是关税落地后的直接结果。前文提到,2026年1-5月,中东地区、北美和拉美等地的骤降也同样受此影响。

杨超指出,“贸易壁垒是出海最大的变量。规则的不确定性非常强,今天可能增加一个门槛,明天又会出现新的限制,这对企业的全球布局是持续性的挑战。”

比关税更隐蔽的,是技术标准。

据欧盟法规,12kW以下一体式空调新机型2027年起要求制冷剂GWP低于150,当前国内销往欧洲的一体式空调普遍采用R32冷媒,GWP值达675,与新标准存在巨大差距。

虽然这不是针对空调这一个品类,但也反映出国产品牌需要承担不确定性合规成本。杨超认为,如果这种标准频繁变动,那对企业的产线是巨大的损耗,“产品设计、供应链、制造体系都是围绕既有标准建立的,一旦规则频繁调整,前期投入就可能面临重构甚至沉没。”

但这种压力并不完全等同于风险。他同时指出,从长期来看,标准升级也具有筛选效应。“当要求提高之后,一些无法适应的企业会被逐步淘汰,而具备研发与制造能力的企业,有机会在新标准下建立优势。”

最后一个问题在品牌。欧洲人抢购中国空调,但他们记住的是“美的”还是“中国制造”?

在多数消费场景中,用户首先感知的仍然是产品功能、价格与可得性,而不是背后是哪家企业。陈洋指出,这正是当前中国家电出海的一个阶段性特征:“很多时候是产品卖出去了,但品牌心智还没有真正建立起来。”

有相关行业数据显示,中国空调产量占全球80%,压缩机这一核心零部件的产量在全球占比达90%。但产能领先,不等于品牌领先。

2025年初,英国咨询公司佰世越的全球空调终端品牌排名,全球前五依次为大金、LG、松下、美的、海尔,中国品牌仅占两席。

以大金、松下为代表的日本品牌,在欧美与高端住宅市场形成稳固优势;LG等韩国品牌则依靠消费电子体系延伸,在渠道与品牌认知上建立起较强的全球化能力;欧洲本土品牌则在本土运营上有深厚经验。

不过这个格局未必固定。

杨超认为,AI与智能化能力正在成为新的变量。中国企业在智能控制、能耗优化与用户交互层面的迭代速度更快,能够更快响应不同区域的使用习惯变化。

即便日韩品牌仍占据终端认知优势,中国企业也在通过更快的技术迭代与更强的场景适配,慢慢撑起新的竞争维度。

目前来看,美的、海尔、格力都还在路上。但这条路的方向,已经越来越清楚了。

注:文/定焦One团队,文章来源:定焦One,本文为作者独立观点,不代表亿邦动力立场。

文章来源:定焦One

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FAQ回顾

欧洲家庭空调的渗透率是多少?

欧洲家庭空调整体渗透率约20%,其中法国家庭装机比例约25%、德国仅6%,普及率较高的意大利超40%、西班牙约50%,远低于美国90%、日本89%的普及率,过去空调并非欧洲家庭生活必需品。

2026年中国空调出口欧洲的增长情况如何?

2026年前5个月中国向法国、荷兰、比利时等西欧国家出口空调数量同比翻倍,进入6月后中国空调对欧洲出口同比增长进一步升至72.8%,其中美的在德、法、西、英等西欧市场空调整体销售额同比涨超70%。

美的、海尔、格力的空调出海路径有什么区别?

美的走规模优先路径,多品牌矩阵布局全球市场,海外收入规模最高;海尔主打本地化深度运营,通过并购建厂布局多品牌,海外营收占比超总营收一半;格力侧重自主品牌出口,当前海外业务规模仍处于追赶阶段。

中国空调出海当前面临哪些主要挑战?

中国空调出海主要面临三重挑战:一是贸易壁垒不确定性高,关税、地缘波动会影响出口表现;二是海外技术标准迭代快,产品需承担较高合规成本;三是中国品牌海外消费者心智仍待建立,高端市场竞争优势不足。

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