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3.7亿存量车 是汽车消费的新“金矿”

向秀芳 2026-06-29 12:55
向秀芳 2026/06/29 12:55

邦小白快读

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总:国内车市已进入存量主导阶段,国家针对3.7亿存量车出台了两套政策组合拳,普通消费者能获得多项实实在在的便利,也有了更多合规的用车消费选择。

1. 换车买车更便利,40个城市开展汽车流通改革试点,将逐步破除二手车跨区域流通的隐性门槛,简化过户流程,解决过去车况信息不透明、标准不统一的问题,不管卖旧车还是买二手车,都能更少踩坑,置换新车也更顺畅。

2. 个性化用车需求得到合法出口,新政针对六大后市场赛道明确规范,改装划清了合规边界、理顺备案流程,房车解决了上路登记和配套不足问题,维保整治过度维修,普通用户的个性化用车需求可以合规满足,消费更透明省心。

总:当前国内新车增长放缓,车市进入存量时代,本次新政为品牌商指明了新的消费趋势和增长方向,提供了明确的布局思路。

1. 消费趋势发生根本转变,汽车消费已经从“一次买卖”转向全生命周期服务,衍生出改装、房车旅居、经典车收藏、汽车赛事、租赁等多元个性化需求,品牌商可针对性开展产品研发,比如推出原厂合规改装产品线、房车专用车型,布局官方二手车业务,挖掘存量用户价值。

2. 行业竞争逻辑重构,过去比拼新车推出速度和价格优势,未来核心转向长期用户维系和深度运营,品牌商可通过布局全周期服务,对冲新车价格战的利润侵蚀,还可结合试点城市政策,打造汽车+文旅的新营销场景,抢占先发优势。

总:本次国家出台的汽车流通和后市场新政,给汽车行业各类卖家明确了新的增长机会,也提示了需要注意的风险和转型方向。

1. 政策红利清晰,40城二手车流通试点将破除交易障碍,释放大量置换需求,按3.7亿存量车计算,仅5%的换车需求就带来近2000万辆新增需求,二手车卖家可抓住机会规范经营,抢占市场份额。

2. 新增增长赛道明确,合规改装、房车配套、经典车修复、汽车租赁、赛事运营等六大赛道已经开闸,政策扫清了发展障碍,卖家可提前布局这些增量领域。

3. 风险提示明确,政策推动行业规范化,依赖灰色地带生存的小商家会面临市场出清,卖家需要提前做好资金、人才储备,尽早转型,不要错失政策窗口。

总:本次新政针对存量车市场的改革,给汽车生产工厂带来了新的商业机会,也指明了转型方向。

1. 产品生产和设计有了新需求,随着个性化、多元化用车场景打开,工厂可拓展新的产品线,比如开发合规改装零部件、房车旅居专用整车、经典老车复刻零部件等,匹配新的消费需求,摆脱新车价格战的内卷。

2. 带来新的订单增量,一方面二手车流通顺畅会带动新车置换需求增长,另一方面政策支持汽车租赁企业扩容更新,租赁企业的新车采购需求会提升,能够补充私家车购车需求不足的缺口,增加工厂订单。

3. 转型启示清晰,工厂需要跳出只靠卖新车赚差价的旧模式,向下游延伸后市场服务,布局全生命周期的产品和服务,打造新的利润增长点,增强抗周期能力。

总:本次新政梳理了汽车后市场的行业发展趋势,明确了客户痛点,给各类汽车服务商指明了发展方向。

1. 行业发展趋势清晰,我国现有3.7亿存量车,对应万亿级的后市场空间,对比欧美成熟市场后市场营收占比超50%,国内后市场还有很大增长空间,未来规范化、连锁化、品牌化是发展方向,个性化、文化型、体验型服务将成为增长主力。

2. 客户痛点已经明确:二手车领域痛点是流通门槛高、车况信息不透明,改装领域没有清晰合规边界、备案流程复杂,房车领域配套不足,维保领域存在过度维修、信息不透明问题。

3. 服务商可依托政策支持,针对细分赛道打造标准化服务,比如统一标准的二手车检测、合规改装服务、连锁透明维保,建立用户信任和品牌壁垒,抢占细分市场。

总:本次汽车行业新政给汽车流通和后市场相关平台带来了新的发展机会,也明确了平台的布局方向和风险防控要求。

1. 行业对平台产生了新的需求:二手车领域需要统一检测认证标准、透明交易的服务平台,解决行业信息不透明、标准不统一的痛点;后市场各个细分赛道也需要聚合型平台对接供需,满足消费者多元需求。

2. 平台可抓住政策窗口布局新业务:依托40城流通试点的政策支持,针对性开展招商,吸引合规二手车商家、改装门店、房车营地、赛事运营方入驻,打造新的业务增长板块。

3. 要做好风险规避,顺应政策规范化要求,建立入驻商家合规审核机制,淘汰不合规的灰色经营商家,提前搭建标准化服务体系,避开政策风险,建立平台核心竞争力。

总:本次商务部出台的汽车流通和后市场双政策组合拳,展现了中国汽车产业进入存量阶段后的全新动向,为产业研究提供了丰富的研究方向。

1. 产业新动向清晰:中国汽车消费已经正式从“一次买卖”的增量模式,转向全生命周期服务的存量模式,行业竞争逻辑从卖车比拼价格,转向全周期用户运营,存量车流通和后市场六大细分赛道成为未来核心增长极。

2. 产业新问题明确:当前行业转型面临多重挑战,中小商家合规成本上升,依赖灰色地带的商家会被出清,经销商转型需要大量资金人才投入,车企布局新业务需要重构供应链体系,短期难以快速见效,这些都是值得研究的新课题。

3. 政策研究启示丰富:本次政策采用试点先行再全国推广的路径,有效降低制度试错成本,通过流通和后市场双向联动,打通存量与增量、基础消费与衍生消费,为存量产业转型提供了可研究的政策范式,新商业模式的探索也值得持续跟踪。

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Quick Summary

Summary: China’s automotive market has entered a stock-dominated stage, and the government has introduced two sets of policy initiatives targeting the country’s 370 million existing vehicles. These policies bring tangible conveniences for ordinary consumers and expand their options for compliant vehicle-related consumption.

1. Easier vehicle replacement and purchases. A used vehicle circulation reform pilot launched in 40 cities will gradually remove implicit barriers to cross-regional used car trade, streamline ownership transfer procedures, and address long-standing issues including opaque vehicle condition information and inconsistent standards. This reduces risks for both sellers and buyers of used cars, and makes new vehicle replacement smoother.

2. A clear, legal pathway for personalized vehicle needs. The new policies establish clear regulations for six major aftermarket segments. They define compliant boundaries and streamline registration procedures for vehicle modifications, resolve issues with road registration and insufficient supporting infrastructure for recreational vehicles (RVs), and crack down on unnecessary overhauls in maintenance services. As a result, ordinary consumers can now meet their personalized vehicle needs in a compliant, transparent and hassle-free way.

Summary: Against the backdrop of slowing new vehicle growth and a market that has shifted to a stock-driven model, the new policies point automakers to emerging consumer trends, new growth directions and a clear strategic layout framework.

1. A fundamental shift in consumer trends. Auto consumption has evolved from a one-time transaction to full-lifecycle services, giving rise to diverse personalized demands spanning vehicle modification, RV travel, classic car collection, motorsports, car leasing and more. Brands can develop targeted products, such as factory-compliant modification lines and dedicated RV models, and build out official used car businesses to unlock value from existing users.

2. A restructuring of industry competition logic. While brands previously competed on the speed of new model launches and price advantages, future competition will center on long-term user retention and in-depth user operations. By building out full-lifecycle service offerings, brands can offset profit erosion from new vehicle price wars. They can also leverage policies in pilot cities to create new "automotive + culture and tourism" marketing scenarios and gain a first-mover advantage.

Summary: China’s new national policies on vehicle circulation and the automotive aftermarket clearly outline new growth opportunities for all types of auto sellers, while also highlighting risks and directional guidance for transformation.

1. Clear policy dividends. The used vehicle circulation pilot in 40 cities will remove trade barriers and unlock massive pent-up replacement demand. Based on the country’s 370 million existing vehicles, even just 5% replacement demand would generate nearly 20 million incremental transactions. Used car sellers can seize this opportunity to standardize their operations and capture greater market share.

2. Clear new growth tracks. The six high-potential segments of compliant modification, RV supporting infrastructure, classic car restoration, car leasing and motorsport operation have now been formally opened up with policy barriers removed. Sellers can move early to position themselves in these incremental growth areas.

3. Clear risk warnings. Policies are pushing the industry toward greater standardization, meaning small operators that rely on grey market practices will be pushed out of the market. Sellers need to shore up capital and talent reserves in advance, transform early, and avoid missing this policy window.

Summary: The recent stock market-focused policy reforms have unlocked new business opportunities for auto manufacturers and provided clear direction for their transformation.

1. New product design and manufacturing demands. As personalized and diversified use cases open up, manufacturers can expand into new product lines such as compliant modification parts, dedicated RVs, and reproduction parts for classic cars to match new consumer demands, and escape the intense price competition that plagues the new vehicle market.

2. Incremental order growth. Smoother used car circulation will drive higher demand for new vehicle replacement, while policy support for scaling and updating fleets will boost new vehicle procurement from car leasing companies. This will offset softening demand from private buyers and increase manufacturers’ order volumes.

3. Clear guidance for transformation. Manufacturers need to move beyond the traditional model of relying solely on new vehicle markups for profit, expand downstream into aftermarket services, build out full-lifecycle products and services, create new profit drivers, and strengthen their ability to withstand cyclical downturns.

Summary: The new policies outline industry development trends for the automotive aftermarket, clearly identify core customer pain points, and point the way forward for all types of automotive service providers.

1. Clear industry development trajectory. China’s existing fleet of 370 million vehicles corresponds to a trillion-yuan aftermarket. Compared to mature markets in Europe and North America, where aftermarkets account for over 50% of total industry revenue, China’s aftermarket still has substantial room for growth. The future development direction is standardization, chain operation and branding, with personalized, culture-driven and experience-focused services set to become the main growth engine.

2. Clearly defined core customer pain points: For the used car sector, the main pain points are high circulation barriers and opaque vehicle condition information. For vehicle modification, there are no clear compliant boundaries and registration procedures are overly complicated. For RVs, supporting infrastructure is insufficient. For maintenance services, over-repair and information asymmetry are widespread problems.

3. Leveraging policy support, service providers can build standardized services for niche segments, such as uniform used vehicle inspection, compliant modification services, and transparent chain maintenance. This allows them to build user trust, establish brand moats, and capture market share in their target segments.

Summary: The new automotive industry policies have unlocked new development opportunities for platforms operating in vehicle circulation and the automotive aftermarket, while also clarifying layout priorities and risk control requirements.

1. New industry demand for platforms. The used car sector needs service platforms that offer unified inspection and certification standards, and transparent trading, to solve the industry’s long-standing problems of information asymmetry and inconsistent standards. Across all niche aftermarket segments, there is also demand for aggregated platforms that match supply and demand to meet consumers’ diversified needs.

2. Platforms can seize the policy window to expand new business lines. Leveraging policy support from the 40-city circulation pilot, platforms can carry out targeted recruitment to attract compliant used car dealers, modification shops, RV campsites and motorsport operators to their platforms, and build out new high-growth business units.

3. Platforms must proactively manage risks. In line with policy requirements for industry standardization, they need to establish compliance review mechanisms for入驻 merchants, eliminate non-compliant grey-market operators, build out standardized service systems in advance, avoid policy risks, and develop core competitive strengths.

Summary: The dual policy packages on vehicle circulation and the automotive aftermarket released by China’s Ministry of Commerce signal new trends for China’s automotive industry as it enters a stock-driven stage, and open up rich new directions for industrial research.

1. Clear new industry trends: China’s auto consumption has officially shifted from a one-time transaction-based incremental growth model to a full-lifecycle service-focused stock model. Industry competition is no longer centered on price competition for new vehicle sales, but on full-cycle user operations. Used vehicle circulation and the six niche aftermarket segments have emerged as the core future growth poles.

2. Clear new industry challenges: The ongoing industry transformation faces multiple hurdles, including rising compliance costs for small and medium-sized businesses, market exit for grey-market-dependent operators, the huge capital and talent investment required for dealer transformation, and the need for automakers to restructure their supply chains to support new businesses, which cannot deliver quick results in the short term. All of these are emerging topics worthy of in-depth research.

3. Rich insights for policy research: This reform follows a "pilot first, roll out nationwide" approach that effectively reduces institutional trial-and-error costs. Through coordinated reform of both circulation and the aftermarket, it connects stock and incremental growth, as well as core consumption and derivative consumption, providing a researchable policy paradigm for stock industry transformation. The exploration of new business models in this space also deserves continued close tracking.

Disclaimer: The "Quick Summary" content is entirely generated by AI. Please exercise discretion when interpreting the information. For issues or corrections, please email run@ebrun.com .

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“新车增长放缓了,就要在‘用车’上找增量。”

在商务部两份政策文件发布后,中国汽车流通协会副秘书长郎学红对盖世汽车说道,随着汽车行业进入存量阶段,新车产销增速逐步收敛,单纯依靠新车拉动增长的空间越来越窄,“挖掘车辆使用周期内的服务需求,才是稳住内需大盘、实现消费长效扩容的可行路径。”

6月23日,商务部联合多部门同日发布两份文件:一份是八部门确定的40个汽车流通消费改革试点城市,另一份是九部门围绕汽车改装、房车露营、经典老车、维修保险、汽车赛事、汽车租赁六大领域出台的17条举措。

政策一前一后,前一份打通“车子怎么换、怎么流通”,后一份解决“车子怎么玩、怎么养”。

在郎学红看来,这套组合拳标志着中国汽车消费正在从“一次买卖”转向“全生命周期服务”。

40城试点落地,让旧车流转起来

先看八部门的40城流通改革试点。依据商务部要求,这次试点推行“一城一策”,即各地根据自身汽车产业基础、消费体量、区位优势等确定主攻方向,不搞一刀切。

五大方向明确:优化限购限行,释放大城市新能源消费空间;破除二手车跨区域流通的隐性门槛,简化过户流程;完善老旧车淘汰激励机制,规范报废回收与电池梯次利用;推动汽车消费与文旅、体育融合;试点智能网联、汽车租赁、赛事等配套业务。

为什么要在流通环节大动干戈?根源在于:旧车卖不掉,新车也受波及。

商务部副部长盛秋平6月介绍,截至目前,我国汽车保有量达到了3.7亿辆,汽车销量连续17年位居全球第一,是名副其实的汽车大国。但也意味着中国车市进入存量主导阶段——买家大多是换车的人。

过去十几年,购置税优惠、地方购车券、置换补贴等轮番上阵。短期看确实能拉动销量,但副作用也很大:政策一退,需求就提前透支了,尤其是新能源市场首当其冲。更重要的是,这些刺激手段集中在“买新车”这一环节,二手车市场置换不通、流通不畅的老问题没有真正得到解决。

以销量数据为证:叠加2026年新能源购置税减半政策影响,国内前5月乘用车零售同比下滑6.2%至1031万辆。其中新能源乘用车同期销量陷入19.7%的降幅。靠补贴硬拉增长,效果已经越来越弱了。

为稳住汽车行业,刺激二手车市场变得很有必要。算一笔账:3.7亿辆存量车,哪怕只有5%的车主今年换车,就是近2000万辆的新增需求。这笔增量如果释放出来,足够撑起大半个中国车市。

然而现实是,大部分人想换旧车却不容易。

结合多方消息得知,虽然国家早就发文取消二手车全国限迁,但很多城市换个打法继续卡,比如排放标准卡一道、隐性迁入门槛卡一道。卖车环节更折腾,存在车况信息不透明,调表车、事故车隐瞒销售等问题。与此同时,各机构检测二手车标准不统一,过户流程复杂。

消费者卖车怕被坑、买车怕被骗,导致二手车市场活跃度不高。中国汽车流通协会数据显示,2025年国内二手车交易量不到新车销量的七成。反观美国,新旧比例常年超过230%,也就是每卖出两台二手车,才卖出一台新车。

郎学红的判断很直白:“全国层面难以快速落地的改革,可以在试点城市先试先行,形成可复制经验再全国推广,大幅降低制度试错成本。”

比如,二手车流通一旦顺畅,最直接的影响就是拉动置换需求,置换再转化为新车订单。这将是试点城市短期内最直接的效应。中长期来看,政策的目标是搭建一条“新车销售—二手车流通—老旧车报废回收”的完整链条,让存量循环变成中国车市自身的内生动力,而不是再靠政策硬撑。

六大赛道开闸,让后市场从散乱走向规范

如果说40城试点解决的是“车子怎么流”,那九部门的17条举措回答的就是“车子怎么玩”。

国内汽车后市场的现状,可用三个字概括:大、乱、憋。3.7亿辆存量车摆在那里,对应的市场空间是按万亿规模来算的,但具体到个性化改装、房车旅居、经典车收藏等细分需求,却被政策卡点和行业乱象压着,难以得到释放。

反观欧美成熟市场,后市场营收占汽车产业的比重普遍超过50%,也就是卖完车之后的生意比卖车本身还大。国内绝大部分消费却还是集中在换机油、换轮胎、修保险杠等基础维保上。个性化、文化型、体验型的消费体量小,尚不成气候。

而17条举措则是精准切入六个赛道,以改善现状。

针对改装市场,政策这次明确了两件事:合规边界划清楚,列出合规改装清单;备案流程理顺,明确变更登记路径。并研究建立全国汽车标准化技术委员会汽车改装分技术委员会,加快制定一批国家标准。安全红线不动,个性需求有出口。郎学红认为,“放开改装限制,能够释放更多市场需求”。

房车露营则存在三个卡点:注册登记标准各地不统一,上路通行限制多,营地配套严重不足。此次政策理顺注册登记和通行规则、简化营地用地审批、要求公共停车场配房车泊位和补给设施。

对于经典老车,政策明确了认定标准、年检规则、上路条件和流通规范,同时鼓励拍卖、展览、收藏、复古赛事等,还布局零部件复刻和整车修复产业。这本质上是把老车从“灰色地带”变成“可流通的文化资产”。

在维修保险层面,车主最常见的痛点是:配件是不是原厂、工时费怎么算、有没有过度维修。政策要求维修技术信息公开,配件可追溯,过度维保和虚假维修有整治措施。保险方面则在探索车电分离模式,核心目标就是透明。

在汽车赛事层面,政策提出简化办赛审批、搭建多层级赛事体系、推动“赛事+文旅”融合,相当于降低了办赛门槛,也给了赛事经济一个明确的商业出路。

汽车租赁是郎学红特别强调的赛道。她表示,租赁企业扩容和车辆更新需要资金支持,政策通过贴息方式给予扶持。“租赁企业车队扩容和加速更新,会有更多新车采购,能够补充私家车购车需求不旺的状况。”

六大赛道的共同逻辑,是把“用车”这件事从单一的通行需求,拆解成个性化、休闲化、文化化、竞技化的多元消费场景。每拆出一个场景,产业链就往深处延伸一步,消费的边界就拓宽一圈。

在新车增长进入平稳区间之后,规范化后的汽车后市场,将成为整车企业、零部件厂商、服务商最重要的增量来源之一。而谁先布局,谁就先吃到这块蛋糕。

流通与后市场双向联动

两份政策同一天出台,是顶层设计的统筹布局。

40城流通试点解决的是车辆物理层面的生命周期流转:从新车购入、使用、置换,到二手车流通,再到报废回收,形成完整的物理循环闭环。17条后市场举措解决的是车辆使用过程中的价值挖掘:改装、露营、赛事、租赁。这些消费行为贯穿车辆使用的全周期,形成服务层面的消费闭环。

两者叠加,搭建起“买车—换车—用车—玩车”的汽车消费全新链路。郎学红认为,试点的五大方向中,汽车租赁、房车露营、汽车赛事与后市场17条举措形成双向联动。试点城市先行先试,为后市场落地提供场景和政策支撑;后市场举措则反过来丰富试点的业态内容,两者互为放大器。

而且,40城试点的覆盖范围比后市场17条举措更广。除了租赁、赛事、露营等交叉方向,试点还涉及汽车报废拆解、智能网联车推广、限购城市政策优化等延伸领域。这些内容在后市场文件里没有直接对应条目,但在试点城市可以先行探索。

以汽车赛事为例,试点鼓励赛事与文旅融合,后市场政策同步简化审批流程。双重政策加持下,一场民间越野赛从场地审批到赛事运营再到文旅引流,制度成本大幅降低。房车露营同样如此,试点简化用地审批,政策补齐配套标准,房车从“买得起、用不起”变成“买得起、用得起、玩得转”。

更深层的产业变革,体现在两个“打通”上。

第一,打通存量与增量。二手车流通不畅,旧车置换意愿低,直接拖累新车销售。试点破局二手车交易障碍,让存量车辆流动起来,流动催生置换需求,置换需求转化为新车订单。这是存量市场下拉动增量最有效的方式之一。

第二,打通基础消费与衍生消费。过去一辆车对经济的贡献,主要集中在购买那一刻。后市场政策打开改装、赛事、露营等衍生场景之后,一辆车在其生命周期内持续产生消费,包括改装件、赛事门票、营地费用、租赁服务等。汽车从一次性交易商品,变成了全生命周期持续创造价值的消费载体。

基于此,不难总结:过去行业竞争更多比拼新车推出速度与售价优势,往后行业竞争的核心,将转向长期用户维系与深度运营服务能力。

竞争逻辑重构:从卖车思维转向运营思维

这套政策组合拳的深远价值,不在短期销量提振,而在于影响中国汽车产业的竞争逻辑,推动全行业从单一销量比拼,转向全生命周期用户价值运营。

过去十年,国内汽车行业的内卷集中在新车定价和配置堆砌。整车企业营收依赖新车差价,盈利被价格战持续压缩。经销商绑定新车进销毛利,抗周期能力薄弱。后市场长期处于小、散、乱的粗放状态,缺乏标准化体系和品牌竞争力。这套依靠新车增量的模式,随着车市进入存量时代,增长空间已经见顶。

双政策落地,为行业开辟了一条新路。

整车车企的机会在于跳出“卖车即结束”的旧逻辑。布局官方二手车,锁定用户置换周期内的流转价值;推出原厂合规改装产品线,把改装从灰色地带纳入官方体系;开发房车旅居专用车型,切入旅居消费新场景。三个方向叠加,存量用户的二次、三次消费就能成为新的利润来源,对冲新车价格战的利润侵蚀。

经销商集团必须告别过度依赖新车销售的单一经营模式。二手车交易、合规改装门店、长短租运营、露营配套、连锁维保等业务组合在一起,才能平滑新车销售的周期性波动。一家经销商如果能在新车利润下滑20%的情况下,通过后市场业务补上15%的利润缺口,就有了穿越周期的底气。

后市场服务商的关键词是规范化、连锁化、品牌化。在政策框架下切入合规改装、精修养护、经典车修复、赛事运营、营地运营等细分赛道,其可依靠标准化服务建立用户信任和品牌壁垒。

地方政府同样有机会,可依托试点政策打造特色产业标签。比如打造赛事产业园、露营集聚区、老车文化街区等,形成汽车消费与文旅体育的融合。这既是消费扩容,也是城市名片。

当然,挑战同样存在。后市场规范化意味着合规成本上升,依赖灰色地带生存的小型改装店、维修作坊将面临出清。经销商转型需要前期投入,二手车检测认证体系、改装工位建设、租赁车队采购等,都涉及资金和人才储备。车企布局官方改装和老车复刻,需要重构产品研发和供应链配套,短期难以快速见效。

站在行业视角来看,政策更多是打开发展空间,具体商业模式仍需要市场主体自行探索落地。率先跑通路径的参与者能够抢占先发优势,一味观望则容易错失窗口期。

而当汽车行业进入后市场时代,新车将只是入口,存量才是真正的价值所在。完成从“卖车思维”到“用户运营思维”的切换,是产业链主体站稳下一阶段竞争的关键。

对于产业链上的每一个参与者,这既是政策红利窗口,也是转型倒逼信号。跳出新车价格内卷,布局流通运营、后市场服务、用户全生命周期管理等领域,才是穿越周期的真正壁垒。

-END-

注:文/向秀芳,文章来源:盖世汽车(公众号ID:gasgooweb),本文为作者独立观点,不代表亿邦动力立场。

文章来源:盖世汽车

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