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倪正东对话贺志强:从三个万亿公司聊起

投资界 2026-09-01 08:52
投资界 2026/09/01 08:52

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本文是创投界大佬倪正东对话联想创投创始人贺志强的访谈,围绕联想创投成立十年投出三家万亿级硬科技公司的经历,分享了投资经验和行业判断,干货如下

1. 三个经典投资项目的实操经验:押注宁德时代时两次实地考察,最终敢拿3亿重仓;寒武纪股价暴跌时顶住压力坚持一股不卖,认准AI和算力的长期价值;错过智谱后通过内部定期复盘补投,抓住大模型赛道的机遇。

2. 当前行业的核心判断:现在一级市场硬科技热潮明显,九成资金集中在少数科技赛道,但FOMO情绪蔓延,项目估值上涨过快,泡沫隐现;创投行业每次洗牌都始于人,机构成功转型的核心是持续自我迭代,才能留在牌桌上。

本文透露了当前硬科技领域的资本风向和商业逻辑,对品牌商布局新业务、研发新产品、抓住新消费趋势有较高参考价值,干货如下

1. 产业与消费趋势:当前九成资本集中在AI、芯片、动力电池、量子科技、商业航天等硬科技赛道,硬科技产品将成为未来消费市场的主流,品牌商可提前布局相关赛道,抓住产业升级带来的新增量。

2. 产品研发与决策可借鉴的经验:做重大决策要深入一线调研,不能只看纸面数据;要认准长期价值,不被短期波动影响;建立定期复盘机制,及时补抓错过的机会。

3. 组织发展启示:产业更迭速度加快,品牌要想不被淘汰,必须推动团队持续自我迭代,跟上产业变化的节奏。

本文梳理了当前创投领域和硬科技行业的最新动向,能给布局科技领域的卖家提供机会参考、风险提示和可学习经验,干货如下

1. 增长机会层面:当前硬科技赛道热度空前,AI、芯片、动力电池、大模型等领域不断诞生万亿量级企业,相关上下游领域都有新的增长机会,是卖家可以切入的新蓝海。

2. 风险提示:当前一级市场FOMO情绪严重,九成资金扎堆少数赛道,项目估值上涨速度过快,泡沫已经显现,卖家进入相关领域需要警惕估值过高、赛道拥挤的风险。

3. 可学习经验:做决策要深入一线调研,坚持长期价值主义不被短期波动影响,建立定期复盘机制抓住错过的机会,应对变化要推动团队自我迭代。

本文中的投资方向和行业趋势,能给实体工厂转型升级、寻找新商业机会提供参考,干货如下

1. 商业机会层面:当前资本重点布局动力电池、AI芯片、大模型、机器人等硬科技领域,相关产业链的上下游环节都有大量新增需求,工厂可以结合自身能力调整生产布局,抓住新的商业机会。

2. 产品生产和设计启示:硬科技核心技术是当前市场最认可的价值方向,工厂需要加大核心技术研发投入,重视技术积累,打造自身的核心竞争力,才能获得资本和市场的认可。

3. 转型启示:产业洗牌速度加快,工厂要想在产业更迭中存活下来,必须主动推动团队和业务的自我升级迭代,拥抱硬科技转型,跟上产业变化的节奏。

本文透露了当前创投行业和硬科技领域的发展趋势、客户痛点,能给面向创投和科技领域的服务商提供参考,干货如下

1. 行业发展趋势:硬科技已经成为当前投资市场的主流方向,大量传统投资机构都在往科技投资方向转型,整个市场对硬科技相关服务的需求正在快速增长,服务商有新的增长空间。

2. 客户核心痛点:当前一级市场硬科技赛道过度拥挤,FOMO情绪蔓延,估值泡沫凸显,投资机构普遍面临优质项目判断难、机构转型难的痛点,需要外部服务支持。

3. 解决方案方向:服务商可以围绕投资机构的行业深度研究、项目复盘、团队能力升级等需求开发对应服务,帮助投资机构判断长期价值,应对产业洗牌,抓住硬科技发展机遇。

本文分享了当前创投行业的最新发展动向,对创投平台、科创服务平台的运营调整、风险规避有参考价值,干货如下

1. 市场需求变化:当前大量资本涌入硬科技赛道,市场对平台的需求转向硬科技项目对接、行业深度研究服务,平台需要调整业务方向,满足投资机构的硬科技投资需求。

2. 运营管理可借鉴的做法:可以参考联想创投的运营模式,建立定期深度行研、项目复盘的机制,帮助入驻机构挖掘被错过的优质项目,提升平台自身的核心价值。

3. 风险规避提示:当前硬科技赛道过于拥挤,FOMO情绪导致估值泡沫严重,平台需要提醒入驻机构警惕非理性投资风险,引导机构关注长期价值,规避行业泡沫带来的负面影响。

本文记录了当前中国创投行业的最新发展变化,对研究创投产业、硬科技发展的研究者来说有较多一手参考信息,干货如下

1. 产业新动向:硬科技时代已经正式到来,创投行业正在经历新一轮洗牌,大量传统投资机构都转型为科技基金,硬科技领域已经诞生多家万亿量级企业,九成资本集中在AI、芯片等少数硬科技赛道。

2. 行业新问题:当前一级市场FOMO情绪过度蔓延,少数赛道过度拥挤,项目估值上涨速度过快,泡沫化风险凸显,2015年成立的一大批创投机构已经在这一轮洗牌中被淘汰。

3. 新的研究观点:文中提出创投行业每一轮洗牌的核心都在于人,投资机构成功转型的关键是团队的自我迭代,这一观点为研究创投机构转型提供了新的思考方向。

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我是 品牌商 卖家 工厂 服务商 平台商 研究者 帮我再读一遍。

Quick Summary

This article features a conversation between leading Chinese venture capitalist Ni Zhengdong and He Zhiqiang, founding managing partner of Legend Capital, centered on Legend Capital"s 10-year journey of backing three trillion-dollar deep tech companies. He shares the firm"s investment insights and industry outlook, with key takeaways as follows:

1. Practical lessons from three iconic investments: Legend Capital conducted two on-site due diligence visits before committing a heavy 300 million RMB bet on CATL; it held all its shares in Cambricon through steep price drops, confident in the long-term value of AI and computing power; after missing an early opportunity with Zhipu AI, the firm captured the generative AI boom through regular internal reviews and a follow-on investment.

2. Core industry observations: A clear deep tech boom is underway in China"s primary market, with 90% of capital concentrated in a small number of tech sectors. FOMO (fear of missing out) has driven excessive valuation growth and early signs of a bubble. The firm notes that every VC industry reshuffle starts with human factors: sustained self-iteration is the core of successful institutional transformation and the only way to remain in the game.

This article reveals the current capital dynamics and business logic of China"s deep tech sector, offering valuable insights for brands looking to expand new business lines, develop new products and capture emerging consumer trends. Key takeaways are as follows:

1. Industrial and consumer trends: Currently, 90% of venture capital flows into deep tech sectors including AI, chips, power batteries, quantum technology and commercial aerospace. Deep tech products will become the mainstream of the future consumer market. Brands can enter these sectors early to capture new growth from industrial upgrading.

2. Lessons for product R&D and decision-making: Conduct on-the-ground research to back major decisions rather than relying solely on paper data; stay focused on long-term value and avoid being distracted by short-term volatility; build a regular review mechanism to recapture opportunities you initially missed.

3. Organizational takeaways: As industrial change accelerates, brands must drive continuous self-iteration across their teams to keep pace with industry shifts and avoid being eliminated.

This article outlines the latest trends in China"s VC and deep tech industries, providing opportunity insights, risk warnings and actionable lessons for sellers expanding into tech-related sectors. Key takeaways are as follows:

1. Growth opportunities: Deep tech sectors are currently seeing unprecedented investor interest, with trillion-cap companies continuously emerging in fields including AI, chips, power batteries and large models. New growth opportunities exist across upstream and downstream related segments, representing untapped blue oceans for sellers to enter.

2. Risk warnings: Severe FOMO in the primary market has led 90% of capital to crowd into a small number of sectors, driving overly fast valuation growth and clear emerging bubbles. Sellers should be wary of the risks of overvaluation and sector crowding when entering these fields.

3. Actionable lessons: Conduct on-the-ground due diligence for major decisions; stick to long-term value creation rather than reacting to short-term volatility; build regular review mechanisms to recapture missed opportunities; and drive team self-iteration to adapt to rapid change.

The investment directions and industry trends outlined in this article offer valuable reference for traditional manufacturing factories pursuing transformation and upgrading and seeking new business opportunities. Key takeaways are as follows:

1. Business opportunities: Capital is currently prioritizing deep tech sectors including power batteries, AI chips, large models and robotics, creating massive new demand across upstream and downstream links of relevant industrial chains. Factories can adjust their production layouts based on their existing capabilities to capture these new business opportunities.

2. Insights for product design and manufacturing: Core deep tech is currently the most valued direction in the market. Factories need to increase R&D investment in core technologies, prioritize technical accumulation, and build their own core competitiveness to earn recognition from both capital and the market.

3. Transformation insights: As industrial reshuffle accelerates, factories that want to survive through industry shifts must proactively drive self-upgrading and iteration for both their teams and business, embrace deep tech transformation, and keep pace with industry change.

This article reveals development trends and core client pain points in China"s VC and deep tech sectors, offering insights for service providers serving the VC and technology space. Key takeaways are as follows:

1. Industry development trends: Deep tech has become the mainstream investment direction in China, and a large number of traditional investment institutions are pivoting to tech investing. Overall market demand for deep tech-related services is growing rapidly, opening up new growth opportunities for service providers.

2. Core client pain points: The deep tech segment in the primary market is excessively crowded, FOMO is widespread, and valuation bubbles are emerging. Investment institutions widely face pain points including difficulty in evaluating high-quality projects and difficulty with institutional transformation, creating demand for external service support.

3. Solution directions: Service providers can develop tailored offerings aligned with institutional needs for in-depth industry research, project post-mortems, and team capability upgrading, helping investment institutions identify long-term value, navigate industry reshuffles, and capture deep tech growth opportunities.

This article shares the latest developments in China"s VC industry, offering insights for VC platforms and tech innovation service platforms on operational adjustment and risk mitigation. Key takeaways are as follows:

1. Shifting market demand: As massive capital flows into deep tech sectors, market demand for platforms has shifted to deep tech project matching and in-depth industry research services. Platforms need to adjust their business focus to meet the deep tech investment needs of institutional clients.

2. Operational best practices: Platforms can draw on Legend Capital"s operating model to build mechanisms for regular in-depth industry research and project post-mortems, helping member institutions uncover high-quality projects they initially missed, and boost the platform"s own core value.

3. Risk mitigation guidance: The current deep tech sector is excessively crowded, and FOMO has created significant valuation bubbles. Platforms should remind member institutions to guard against irrational investment risks, guide institutions to focus on long-term value, and avoid the negative impacts of industry bubbles.

This article documents the latest developments in China"s VC industry, providing valuable first-hand reference information for researchers studying the VC industry and deep tech development. Key takeaways are as follows:

1. New industry dynamics: The deep tech era has formally arrived, and the VC industry is undergoing a new round of reshuffling. A large number of traditional investment institutions have transformed into tech-focused funds, multiple trillion-cap companies have already emerged in deep tech, and 90% of capital is concentrated in a small number of deep tech sectors including AI and semiconductors.

2. New emerging industry problems: Excessive FOMO in the primary market has led to overcrowding in a handful of sectors, overly fast valuation growth, and prominent bubble risk. A large cohort of VC firms founded around 2015 has already been eliminated in this current reshuffle.

3. New research perspective: The article puts forward that every round of VC industry reshuffle is rooted in human factors, and the key to successful institutional transformation is team self-iteration. This perspective offers a new direction for research on VC firm transformation.

Disclaimer: The "Quick Summary" content is entirely generated by AI. Please exercise discretion when interpreting the information. For issues or corrections, please email run@ebrun.com .

I am a Brand Seller Factory Service Provider Marketplace Seller Researcher Read it again.

今年夏天,北京胡同小院。

倪正东和贺志强,两位老友进行了一场对话。

此时正是联想创投成立十周年,也是贺志强加入联想的第四十年。

他的职业转型轨迹极具参考性:从工程师到CTO再到创立联想创投,干起投资

十年前,联想创投成立,正是移动互联网最热的时候,贺志强却带着一群理工科投资人扎进早期科技投资。

直至迎来硬科技时代。

一晃十年,贺志强和团队留给中国创投一抹深刻记忆:投出8家市值超2000亿人民币的上市公司,其中3家一度万亿量级——宁德时代、寒武纪、智谱。

当中种种,令人感慨。

01

回到2016年。

那时联想创投投完蔚来汽车,内部希望能沿着产业链布局一家动力电池企业。很快团队扫描梳理出一家合适标的,宁德时代。

但彼时宁德时代估值已经800亿元。于联想创投而言,这个价格实在太贵,下不了手。

为此,贺志强专程两次飞去宁德市。第一次是考察宁德时代的工厂和研究院,与员工一起交流。第二次则是去到曾毓群办公室,两人不谈投资事宜,而是交流起过往的CTO经历,办公室挂的一幅字“赌性坚强”至今让贺志强印象深刻。

最终,联想创投拿出3亿元押注宁德时代。

02

2017年的一个下午,贺志强在中国科学院第一次见到陈天石。此后外界看到,联想创投从A轮融资开始,四轮参与寒武纪融资。

危急关头是2022年。

寒武纪股价已经从上市的200多元一股,掉到50多。当时贺志强在外出差,内部紧急召开一个电话会,讨论是否要赶紧减持退出。

焦灼之际,贺志强抛出三个反问:第一,大家信不信AI?第二,大家信不信算力是AI的基础设施?第三,大家信不信任何一家芯片企业要做到寒武纪这程度,都会面临今天同样的挑战?最终内部一致决定:一股不卖。

此后,我们见证寒武纪市值突破1000亿,3000亿,5000亿,10000亿。

03

智谱这个案子更具戏剧性。

联想创投团队很早就接触到智谱,只是迟迟没有在内部上会,看着公司估值从20亿涨到200亿。

每年从12月底,联想创投内部会进行三个月深度行研,期间一个项目都不投,所有人都埋头于研究行业。当中有一条纪律,回头望——团队进行复盘反思,看看有哪些miss掉的项目要补枪。

智谱便是这样被团队重新“捞出来”。但此时公司估值200亿,下不下注都是一个艰难的决定。反复研究后,联想创投还是选择落子,再次见证一家万亿公司的诞生。

04

聊回当下。

倪正东说,今年这过去的12个月,是中国创造独角兽最多的12个月。

亲历过往十年创投起伏,当下的热闹更显弥足珍贵。

只是眼前,一级市场共识太强,赛道太挤——几乎90%的资金都集中在AI、机器人、量子科技、核聚变、商业航天等赛道,科技投资的热潮前所未有。

随之而来,便是FOMO情绪席卷——诸如半年融7轮,一年融10轮,项目估值上涨速度惊人。

“大家都变成了科技基金。”如此一幕,心情复杂。

05

这是属于整个创投行业的灵魂拷问:

一家投资机构如何成功转型?

产业的更迭,总会带来一波投资机构的洗牌。正如互联网时代,我们看到崛起一批创投大佬;硬科技时代,牌桌上又换了一批新面孔。回顾2015年成立的基金中,现在不少人和机构都已经消失了。

归根结底,在于人——要么自我迭代,要么直接换人。

历史反复证明,创投行业每一次洗牌 往往都始于人。

注:文/投资界,文章来源:投资界(公众号ID:pedaily2012),本文为作者独立观点,不代表亿邦动力立场。

文章来源:投资界

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FAQ回顾

联想创投的投资方向和成果是什么?

联想创投成立之初就聚焦早期硬科技投资,成立十年累计投出8家市值超2000亿人民币的上市公司,其中宁德时代、寒武纪、智谱3家企业一度达到万亿市值量级。

当前国内硬科技投资赛道有什么特点?

当前国内硬科技投资热潮前所未有,近90%的一级市场资金集中在AI、机器人、量子科技、核聚变、商业航天等赛道,项目估值上涨速度快,FOMO情绪明显,大量机构转型为科技基金。

创投行业机构洗牌的核心原因是什么?

创投行业的洗牌往往伴随产业更迭发生,互联网时代、硬科技时代都曾出现大批机构淘汰的情况,洗牌的核心在于人的迭代,无法及时自我迭代适配新赛道的机构就会被淘汰。

联想创投投资寒武纪时做了什么关键决策?

联想创投从A轮开始四轮参与寒武纪融资,2022年寒武纪股价大幅下跌时,团队基于对AI产业前景、算力基础设施价值的判断,坚定持有未减持,后续见证其市值突破万亿。

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