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消费REITs二季报 营收唯一双增长的竟然是金茂览秀城!

哎呦薇 2026-07-23 12:38
哎呦薇 2026/07/23 12:38

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本文对11只消费基础设施REITs的二季报做了全面拆解,核心结论是当前消费REITs板块已经呈现深度分化格局,且分化会持续加剧,项目的主动管理和精准调改才是穿越周期的核心竞争力。

1. 财务层面,11个项目营收分为三个梯队,长沙金茂览秀城是唯一实现营收环比、同比双增长的项目,头部城市标杆项目经营韧性最强,奥莱业态增速放缓,传统区域商业普遍承压。分派率的变化反映二级市场对项目的定价,基本面越扎实的项目分派率越低,信任溢价越高。

2. 运营层面,行业整体已经阶段性见顶租金红利,主动精准调改是存量项目提质的唯一有效路径,能形成出租率、客流、营收的良性循环;需要注意出租率跌破90%后容易触发“空置增加-客流下滑-商户流失”的负向循环,精细化管理是应对外部竞争的核心。

本文披露了国内头部商业购物中心的最新经营格局与消费趋势,对品牌商布局线下渠道、调整经营策略有较高参考价值。

1. 当前消费大盘整体低迷,但商业项目分化十分明显,城市级标杆项目客流、销售额仍能保持双位数增长,精准调改的区域项目也能实现逆势增长,品牌商拓店可以优先选择这类抗周期能力强的项目,获得更稳定的流量。

2. 当前存量商业正在掀起大范围调改潮,整体趋势是零售业态向餐饮、体验业态置换,不少项目选择拆分大铺引入中小品牌,持续汰换低效品牌,新品牌、细分品类品牌、体验类品牌获得了更多进场机会。

3. 需要注意的是,奥莱增长已经回归常态,传统区域商业仍处于转型阵痛期,部分商圈即将迎来重量级新项目分流,品牌商布局时需要提前评估经营风险。

本文分析了当前消费REITs底层商业项目的经营格局,能帮助线下实体卖家判断布局机会、规避经营风险。

1. 机会层面,即便消费大盘低迷,城市标杆项目、主动精准调改的区域项目仍保持营收、客流的稳定增长,这类项目出租率高、运营成熟,卖家入驻后获得稳定收益的概率更高;大量存量项目调改时,会通过适度降租吸引餐饮、体验类品牌进场,还拆分大铺释放了大量中小铺位,中小卖家可以抓住窗口期以较低成本入驻优质点位。

2. 风险层面,出租率跌破90%的项目容易陷入“空置增加-客流下滑-商户流失”的负向循环,经营稳定性差;有新增重量级竞品的商圈,会出现明显的客流分流,现有门店还可能面临续约期被竞品挖角的风险,卖家需要提前做好应对准备。

当前实体商业的深度分化与大规模调改趋势,对对接线下渠道的消费品生产工厂有重要参考意义,能帮助工厂把握商业机会、调整生产方向。

1. 商业机会层面,线下存量项目都在持续优化品牌矩阵,汰换低效品牌、引入符合消费趋势的新品牌,体验业态、餐饮业态的扩张需求明显,对应供应链工厂的订单需求会持续增长,特色细分品类的消费品工厂也获得了更多进入优质线下渠道的机会。

2. 方向调整层面,当前线下项目越来越看重精细化运营,会根据自身定位深耕客群需求,工厂对接线下渠道时,需要针对不同定位项目的客群调整产品设计,匹配定位才能获得更好的销售资源。

3. 当前线下商业已经度过租金红利期,项目对品牌的周转和业绩要求更高,工厂需要优化成本结构、提升产品适配性,才能更好适应线下渠道的新要求。

本文清晰呈现了当前消费基础设施REITs对应商业地产行业的发展趋势、客户核心痛点与已验证的解决方案,为各类商业服务商提供了明确的方向参考。

1. 行业发展趋势:消费REITs板块深度分化,经营差距还会持续扩大,行业整体的租金红利已经阶段性见顶,存量商业项目的提质改造已经成为行业主流需求,运营端主动管理的价值越来越受重视,相关服务需求会持续增长。

2. 客户核心痛点:不少传统区域项目面临主力店撤租后的大面积空置消化难题,已有项目出现出租率跌破90%触发负向循环的情况;部分项目面临商圈新增竞品的冲击,存在客流分流、租户流失的风险;转型项目普遍面临“以价换量”后如何转化为利润增长的短期阵痛。

3. 可行解决方案方向:精准主动调改已经被多个项目验证有效,拆分大铺、分层改造、品牌迭代都能实现良性增长,服务商可以围绕这类调改需求开发对应服务产品。

本文披露的11只消费REITs项目经营数据,对商业平台运营商的招商、运营管理、风险规避都有较高的参考价值。

1. 运营优化方面,行业已经验证精准主动的存量调改是提质增收的有效路径,平台可以参考成熟做法:将大面积低效铺位拆分改造为多个中小铺,能同时提升出租率和租金单价;按楼层分层改造逐步完善业态矩阵,持续汰换低效品牌优化品牌结构,都能有效拉动客流和营收增长。

2. 招商管理方面,需要重视出租率的平衡阈值,一旦出租率跌破90%,很容易触发负向循环,因此平台需要提前制定主力店撤租应对预案,加快空置面积的去化速度,避免经营恶化。

3. 风险规避方面,商圈新增竞品时,需要提前关注竞品招商周期和自身租约续约窗口的重叠问题,提前通过精细化运营提升租户粘性,守住核心客群和品牌资源,对冲分流冲击。

本文基于11只消费基础设施REITs的二季报公开数据,呈现了消费REITs板块的最新产业动向与核心问题,对产业研究具备较高的参考价值。

1. 产业新动向:当前消费基础设施REITs板块已经完成深度分化,且分化趋势会持续加剧,这种分化充分验证了商业运营中主动管理的核心价值,城市标杆项目依托会员深度运营和成熟品牌矩阵,精准调改的区域项目依托精细化运营,都展现出更强的抗周期能力,成为板块内的优质资产。

2. 行业新问题:部分传统存量项目转型会经历长期阵痛,出租率跌破90%后容易触发负向循环;商圈新增重量级竞品会直接冲击原有项目的租户稳定性与客流规模,这些都是当前存量商业盘活需要解决的新问题。

3. 商业模式验证:主动调改提质的模式已经被多个项目验证有效,能够形成出租率、租金、客流、销售额的良性循环,为存量商业资产盘活提供了可复制参考路径。

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Quick Summary

This article provides a comprehensive breakdown of Q2 earnings reports for 11 Chinese consumer infrastructure REITs, with the core conclusion that the consumer REITs sector has already deep division, which will continue to intensify. Proactive asset management and targeted asset reconfiguration are the core competitive strengths to navigate economic cycles.

1. On the financial front, the 11 projects fall into three revenue tiers. Jinmao Lanxiu City in Changsha is the only project that achieved both sequential and year-over-year revenue growth. Flagship projects in top-tier cities demonstrate the strongest operational resilience, while outlet mall growth has slowed, and traditional regional commercial projects are broadly facing operating pressure. Changes in distribution yields reflect secondary market pricing: fundamentally stronger projects carry lower distribution yields but higher trust premiums.

2. On the operational front, the industry as a whole has reached a cyclical peak in rental dividends. Proactive, targeted reconfiguration is the only effective path to upgrading existing assets, which can create a positive cycle of occupancy rate, foot traffic, and revenue growth. It is worth noting that once occupancy rate drops below 90%, projects easily fall into a negative cycle of "rising vacancies → falling foot traffic → merchant attrition", so refined management is core to withstanding external competition.

This article outlines the latest operating landscape and consumer trends of China's leading commercial shopping centers, offering valuable insights for brands looking to expand offline channels and adjust business strategies.

1. Against the backdrop of a broadly sluggish overall consumer market, commercial projects are sharply divided. City-level flagship projects still maintain double-digit growth in both foot traffic and sales, and well-positioned regional projects with targeted reconfiguration can also achieve outperformance. Brands prioritizing expansion should focus on these cycle-resilient projects to access more stable traffic.

2. A large-scale wave of reconfiguration is underway across existing commercial properties, with a clear industry trend of shifting retail space to food and beverage and experiential offerings. Many projects are splitting large floorplans to accommodate small and medium-sized brands, and continuously underperforming brands are being phased out. This has created more entry opportunities for new brands, niche category brands, and experiential brands.

3. Brands should note that outlet growth has returned to normal levels, while traditional regional commercial properties are still in the painful transition period. Some existing business districts will soon face traffic diversion from heavyweight new projects, so brands should assess operational risks in advance before entering these markets.

This article analyzes the operating landscape of the underlying commercial assets of China's consumer REITs, helping offline physical sellers identify expansion opportunities and mitigate operational risks.

1. On the opportunity side: Even in a sluggish overall consumer market, city-level flagship projects and well-targeted regional projects with proactive reconfiguration still maintain stable growth in revenue and foot traffic. These projects have high occupancy rates and mature operations, so sellers are far more likely to generate stable returns after moving in. When large numbers of existing properties undergo reconfiguration, they often offer moderate rent cuts to attract food, beverage and experiential brands, and split large floorplans to release a large number of small and medium-sized units. Small and medium-sized sellers can seize this window to enter prime locations at lower costs.

2. On the risk side: Projects with occupancy rates below 90% easily fall into the negative cycle of "rising vacancies → falling foot traffic → merchant attrition", with poor operational stability. Business districts with new heavyweight competitors will see clear traffic diversion, and existing stores may even face the risk of losing talent to competitors during lease renewal cycles. Sellers should prepare for these risks in advance.

The deep division and large-scale reconfiguration trend in today's offline commercial sector offers important reference value for consumer goods manufacturers that sell through offline channels, helping them capture opportunities and adjust production strategies.

1. On the opportunity side: Existing offline commercial properties are continuously optimizing their brand matrices, phasing out underperforming brands and introducing new brands aligned with consumer trends. Experiential and food & beverage formats have particularly strong expansion demand, which will drive sustained growth in order demand for their corresponding supply chain factories. Consumer goods factories focusing on niche specialty categories are also gaining more opportunities to enter high-quality offline channels.

2. On production adjustment: Offline projects increasingly prioritize refined management and tailor offerings to their specific customer base. When partnering with offline projects, factories need to adjust product design to match the customer base and positioning of different projects, as matching positioning is required to access better sales resources.

3. The offline commercial sector has already passed the peak of rental dividends, and projects now impose higher requirements on brand turnover and performance. Factories need to optimize cost structures and improve product adaptability to meet the new requirements of offline channels.

This article clearly outlines the current development trends, core client pain points, and validated solutions for the commercial real estate industry underlying China's consumer infrastructure REITs, providing clear directional guidance for all types of commercial service providers.

1. Industry development trends: The consumer REITs sector is deeply divided, and operating gaps between projects will continue to widen. The industry as a whole has reached a cyclical peak in rental dividends, and upgrading and reconfiguration of existing commercial assets has become the mainstream industry demand. The value of proactive operational management is increasingly recognized, and demand for related services will continue to grow.

2. Core client pain points: Many traditional regional projects face the challenge of absorbing large vacant spaces after anchor tenant departures, and a number of existing projects have already seen occupancy drop below 90%, triggering negative cycles. Some projects face pressure from new competitors entering their business districts, bringing risks of traffic diversion and tenant attrition. Transforming projects generally face short-term pain from converting "volume gained via price cuts" into profit growth.

3. Directions for viable solutions: Proactive targeted reconfiguration has been validated effective by multiple projects: splitting large floorplans, tiered renovation, and brand iteration all can deliver sustainable positive growth. Service providers can develop tailored service products around these reconfiguration demands.

Operating data of 11 consumer REIT projects disclosed in this article offers high reference value for commercial platform operators in leasing, operations management, and risk mitigation.

1. For operational optimization: The industry has validated that proactive targeted reconfiguration of existing assets is an effective path to boosting quality and revenue. Platforms can adopt proven best practices: splitting large underperforming units into multiple small and medium-sized spaces can simultaneously increase occupancy rate and average rent; tiered floor-by-floor renovation to refine the format mix, combined with continuous replacement of underperforming brands to optimize the brand matrix, can effectively drive growth in foot traffic and revenue.

2. For leasing management: Operators need to pay close attention to the balance threshold for occupancy rate. Once occupancy drops below 90%, it easily triggers a negative operating cycle. Platforms should therefore prepare contingency plans in advance for anchor tenant departures, and accelerate the absorption of vacant space to avoid operational deterioration.

3. For risk mitigation: When a new competitor enters a business district, operators need to pay close attention to any overlap between the competitor's leasing timeline and their own lease renewal window. They should proactively increase tenant retention through refined operations to protect their core customer base and brand resources, and offset the impact of traffic diversion.

Based on public Q2 earnings data from 11 consumer infrastructure REITs, this article outlines the latest industry developments and core issues in the consumer REITs sector, offering high reference value for industry research.

1. New industry developments: The consumer infrastructure REITs sector has already completed deep division, and this dividing trend will continue to intensify. This division fully validates the core value of proactive management in commercial operations. Flagship city projects rely on deep member engagement and mature brand matrices, while well-configured regional projects rely on refined operations — both demonstrate stronger cycle resilience and stand out as high-quality assets in the sector.

2. New industry challenges: Many traditional existing projects face prolonged growing pains during transition, and occupancy rates below 90% easily trigger negative operating cycles. The entry of new heavyweight competitors directly undermines existing projects' tenant stability and foot traffic volume, and these are new problems that need to be solved for the revitalization of existing commercial assets.

3. Validated business model: The proactive reconfiguration and upgrading model has been validated effective by multiple projects, and can create a positive cycle of occupancy rate, rental income, foot traffic, and sales. It provides a replicable roadmap for the revitalization of existing commercial assets.

Disclaimer: The "Quick Summary" content is entirely generated by AI. Please exercise discretion when interpreting the information. For issues or corrections, please email run@ebrun.com .

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起底REITs

来源 · 赢商网(ID:winshang)

作者 ·哎呦薇

宏观消费大盘的低迷,折射到了消费REITs表现上。

7月21日,11只消费基础设施REITs(本文分析涵盖11只消费基础设施REITs,不包含农贸市场类的易方达华威农贸市场REIT)二季报新鲜出炉。

多数REITs项目营收同比出现常规季节性回落,叠加行业整体经营压力持续释放,差距愈加明显,边界更为分明。

赢商研究中心将从财务指标、运营指标两个维度,拆解这份季度“答卷”。

01.

财务指标:

营收梯队分明,分派率映射估值高低

营业收入:

城市标杆稳中有进,奥莱增速放缓

■ 第一梯队——城市标杆型项目、精准调改型项目,营收优于市场整体水平。

它们的共同特征不是“地标”或“规模”,而是在自己的定位里深耕。城市级地标靠会员深度和品牌矩阵、社区型购物中心靠精细化招商和低成本运营。路径不同,结果一致,稳健增长,淡季营收下滑幅度有限。

青岛万象城是城市级标杆项目的代表。Q2营收1.98亿元,环比微跌3.0%,同比提升9.6%。在近2亿元的季度营收规模下,守住接近双位数的同比增幅,资产经营韧性突出。

成都大悦城是成都除SKP等重奢项目外,城市第一梯队的商业项目。Q2营收8703万元,环比下滑3.9%,同比增长7.2%。项目客流同比提升16.92%、销售额同比上涨15.99%,具备持续上行潜力。

长沙金茂览秀城定位区域型购物中心,调改动作积极精准。Q2营收2575万元,环比逆势上涨4.7%,同比增长7.3%,是11只消费REITs里唯一实现环比营收正增长的项目。

■ 第二梯队——奥莱业态Q2表现不及Q1,增长动能边际走弱。

华夏首创奥莱REITQ1营收同比大涨15.2%,Q2营收5970万元,同比增速收窄至2.4%,环比下滑27.3%。同比来看,济南、武汉项目受多雨天气冲击,对经营形成一定扰动。

中金唯品会宁波杉井奥莱Q2营收6700万元,环比回落21.2%。地铁6号线通车带来的客流红利持续释放,但因前期高基数,增长压力不小。

■ 第三梯队——传统区域商业承压,调改阵痛强,华安百联同比营收降幅最大。

中金绿发济南领秀城贵和Q2营收4110万元,环比下降2.8%。项目Q2期末出租率86.17%,原主力店华联超市撤租遗留的空置面积仍在持续消化,基本面在板块内相对偏弱。

华安百联上海百联又一城Q2营收5316万元,同比微降0.7%,环比下滑13.0%。项目正推进零售业态向餐饮业态调整,处转型阵痛阶段,未见改善拐点。

分派率:

价差扩大,市场为确定性重新定价

分派率的高低和变化,反映的是二级市场对每个项目的溢价或折价,不确定性越大,市场要求的分派率就越高。

低位运行的分派率,对应市场最高的信任溢价。华夏华润消费REIT分派率3.75%全板块最低,且始终稳定在3.7%左右。近2亿季度营收、99.08%出租率、197万会员——扎实的基本面给了市场最大的信心。

大幅波动的分派率,对应市场正在重新定价。华夏首创奥莱REIT从Q1的5.36%骤降至Q2的4.44%,中金唯品会奥莱REIT从Q1的4.30%降至Q2的4.15%,表明奥莱仍被市场认可,但“高增长持续”已切换为“增长回归常态”。

02.

运营指标:

运营印证差距,调改决定长期走势

二季度披露的运营指标,能够支撑四大核心判断,从租金水平、 出租率 、存量调改 、 外部竞争多维度呈现出REITs项目的真实格局。

租金单价:同比虽涨、环比普跌,已迈过拐点

二季度,消费REITs项目租金单价印证中长期行业趋势:租金红利期已阶段性见顶,市场租金整体迈过高位,市场下调租金收益预期是必然。

头部标杆资产经营韧性仍存,但租金增长已见顶。青岛万象城二季度租金单价444.53元/㎡/月,环比小幅回落3.2%,同比仍增6.2%,租金绝对值仍站稳历史高位。

与之鲜明对比的是转型阵痛中的区域项目。上海百联又一城租金单价199.00元/㎡/月,环比下滑4.8%、同比回落15.0%,调整幅度显著超出季节性正常波动。核心源于项目持续推进零售业态向餐饮、体验业态置换,通过适度下调租金换取客流规模与场内停留时长,业态结构重塑带来的经营压力短期难以消化。

而中金绿发济南领秀城贵和租金单价4.36元/㎡/天,折合132.25元/㎡/月,环比上行10.4%。本次单价环比提升是因为主力超市大面积撤租后,场内高租金商户占比被动提高。

出租率:

环比回落,中金绿发成为首个出租率跌破90%项目

截至二季度末,各消费REITs底层资产项目出租率表现如下:

近乎满租梯队(99%及以上):中金唯品会消费REIT100%、华夏中海消费REIT100%、华夏金茂消费REIT99.67%、华夏华润消费REIT99.08%;

高位平稳梯队(97%-99%):中金印力消费REIT98.66%、华夏首创奥莱消费REIT97.85%、华夏凯德消费REIT97.27%、华夏大悦城消费REIT97.17%;

中位调整梯队(94%-95%):华安百联消费REIT94.56%;

经营承压梯队:嘉实物美消费REIT93.66%、中金绿发消费REIT86.17%。

存量调改:

主动调改成为唯一提质路径,可形成良性循环

一季度多家项目启动场内业态、品牌、空间改造,成果在二季度得到检验。

调改成效突出的资产普遍具备统一特征,即出租率触底回升、租金单价同步改善,客流、销售额形成良性循环。

中金印力杭州西溪印象城:空间拆分改造实现量价齐升——对A座一层原2280㎡ZARA大铺进行分割改造,拆分为多间中小铺位,二季度出租率由Q1的95.87%修复至98.66%;有效租金单价264.29元/㎡/月,同比提升5.2%。出租规模与租金收益同步改善,是板块内存量改造兑现价值的标杆案例。经营端同步收获亮眼表现,二季度整体销售额同比增长15.4%,周年庆活动期间客流同比上涨38.69%,单日峰值客流突破15万人次。

华夏凯德广州凯德云尚:分层改造落地完善业态矩阵——B2改造区开街,三个区域分批亮相,B2层2801.60㎡改造区域引入14家新品牌,签约满租并于5月底试营业;L5完美世界影城5月焕新开业;L6层签约廣州酒家、魅KTV,预计三季度开业。本次整体改造面积约7581㎡,持续丰富业态结构,中长期利好客流与营收增长,五一当日项目客流同比上涨11%。

华夏首创奥莱济南:品牌迭代对冲淡季周期——二季度出租率97.36%,租金单价160.66元/㎡/月,同比提升5.8%。运营端持续优化品牌矩阵并汰换低效品牌,引入尹默、安奈儿等全新品牌,完成依文门店重装升级;同步落地多档主题营销活动。

华安百联上海又一城:业态转型阵痛延续,客流端率先企稳——二季度出租率94.56%,同比小幅下滑0.8个百分点;租金单价199.00元,同比下降15.0%。场内零售转餐饮的调整仍在推进,6F引入川系正餐不二君、高层落地普拉提、休闲美业等体验业态。现阶段客流已显现企稳迹象,二季度总客流560.56万人次,会员规模66.61万人。但“以价换量”的模式能否转化为收入和利润的改善,要更长时间来验证。

外部竞争:动态变迁,考验项目精细化管理能力

中金绿发济南领秀城贵和:首现出租率跌破90%,基本面持续承压

该项目二季度出租率仅86.17%,位列末位,也是市场首个出租率跌破90%的消费REITs底层资产项目,数据背后反映出实打实的经营压力。

一季度主力店华联超市撤租,空置面积占项目可租面积比重达12.49%。目前虽已签约盒马鲜生5717㎡作为替代业态,但从门店落地、开业到稳定经营存在较长收入空档期。

更深层的影响在于购物中心运营存在隐性平衡阈值:出租率一旦跌破90%,大面积空置会分流场内客流,直接拖累现有商户销售表现,进而降低商户续约意愿,甚至催生大面积降租诉求,极易形成“空置增加-客流下滑-商户流失”的负向循环。

目前运营方已对接多家头部新零售品牌,后续两大观察关键节点决定项目修复空间:盒马鲜生落地开业进度、原有超市空置剩余铺位去化速度,二者将直接决定资产能否走出经营低谷。

华夏凯德广州云尚:商圈新增重磅竞品,存量租户迎来分流考验

凯德云尚项目购物出租率96.30%,单看出租数据仍处于板块上游水平。同时场内改造有序落地:B2改造区域5月试营业、签约率100%;L5完美世界影城焕新开业;L6引入廣州酒家、魅KTV,三大改造区域合计7581㎡空间分批开业,场内更新节奏平稳。

潜在风险集中于外部竞争环境重构,本土商业龙头金铂商业将在白云新城打造30亿级高端综合体CorePark,总建面46.5万㎡,定位复合型城市商业综合体。

未来,白云新城商圈将形成白云万达、凯德云尚、白云万象汇、金铂CorePark四大商业体并存格局,各项目定位虽有区分,但核心客群高度重叠。更关键的是,金铂新项目招商周期,恰好与凯德云尚2026-2027年集中租约续约窗口重合,这意味着广州凯德云尚项目需要同时应对两大挑战:守住现有品牌不被竞品挖角、抵御区域客流持续分流。

这也是板块内首个直面重量级新增竞品冲击的资产,后续经营表现将直观验证运营方能否依靠精细化管理对冲外部竞争压力。

11只消费REITs二季度经营数据充分显现消费REITs板块深度分化的格局,各类资产经营差距彻底落地。

消费REITs的分化不会逆转,只会加剧,而这种加剧的分化,恰恰为主动管理的价值提供了最直接的证明。

那些能够穿越周期的项目,管理者无一例外都在持续追问:消费者需要什么?品牌趋势往哪里去?答案或将写在每一份季报的数据中去。

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注:文/哎呦薇,文章来源:赢商网(公众号ID:winshang),本文为作者独立观点,不代表亿邦动力立场。

文章来源:赢商网

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FAQ回顾

2024年二季度消费REITs整体经营表现如何?

2024年二季度11只消费基础设施REITs多数营收出现常规季节性回落,行业经营压力持续释放,板块分化加剧。头部城市标杆型、精准调改型项目营收优于市场平均水平,奥莱业态增长动能边际走弱,传统区域商业普遍承压。

消费REITs项目提升经营质量的有效路径是什么?

主动开展存量调改是消费REITs项目提质的唯一有效路径,通过业态优化、品牌汰换、空间改造等动作,可实现出租率触底回升、租金单价同步改善,带动客流、销售额增长,形成经营良性循环。

2024年二季度唯一实现营收环比正增长的消费REITs项目是哪个?

长沙金茂览秀城是2024年二季度11只消费REITs中唯一实现营收环比正增长的项目,该项目定位区域型购物中心,调改动作积极精准,Q2营收2575万元,环比上涨4.7%,同比增长7.3%。

消费REITs出租率跌破90%会有什么负面影响?

消费REITs项目出租率一旦跌破90%,大面积空置会分流场内客流,直接拖累现有商户销售表现,进而降低商户续约意愿,甚至催生大面积降租诉求,极易形成“空置增加-客流下滑-商户流失”的负向循环。

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