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“千店狂飙”和“跑路传闻”背后 揭开麦记牛奶另一面

红餐编辑部 2026-07-13 12:49
红餐编辑部 2026/07/13 12:49

邦小白快读

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本文梳理了爆红糖水品牌麦记牛奶从50余家门店一年多扩张到千店的发展过程,回应了跑路、高额罚款、加盟商不赚钱等网络负面传闻,核心干货如下:

1.麦记牛奶千店扩张的核心逻辑:踩中了糖水甜品赛道的增长红利,主打“自然甜”的健康轻负担定位,将SKU精简到20个左右,坚持商场选址打造差异化,创始人15年餐饮行业积累积累了大量信任他的加盟商,成为扩张基础。

2.核心争议回应:实际控制人仍为创始人谢永亮,不存在跑路情况;品牌整体闭店率仅3%,处于行业低位,头部门店月利润超10万元,3-5月已给亏损稽核达标门店发放136万元补贴,综合毛利率在53.5%-60%之间,稽核罚款规模远小于传闻,还开通了申诉通道规范管理,罚款仅为辅助管理手段。

3.品牌下一步规划:不盲目扩张,国内深耕商场渠道同时拓展下沉县域市场,谨慎拓展海外华人市场,目标是开到所有有华人的地方。

本文对糖水赛道品牌建设提供了丰富的参考干货,内容整理如下:

1.消费趋势相关:目前国内甜品甜点市场稳定增长,2025年市场规模达485亿元,同比增长5.4%,消费者越来越偏好健康轻负担的自然甜糖水,复购率是品牌核心指标,麦记牛奶综合复购率达30%。

2.产品研发方向:坚持“鲜做、自然甜”定位,精简SKU保持产品高标准化,上新节奏从季度1款调整为季度2款,平衡了产品策略延续性和市场对新鲜感的需求。

3.渠道建设经验:走商场选址差异化路线,当前国内下沉县域市场房租人力成本低,门店表现突出,海外华人市场需求稳定,美国首家门店6个月就收回成本,增长空间较大。

4.连锁管理经验:主动筛选加盟商,不盲目追求扩张规模,优化稽核制度以保障食品安全为核心,对亏损达标门店给予补贴,维持品牌整体稳定性,今年开始尝试直播营销为门店引流。

本文给意向加盟麦记牛奶的卖家整理了核心信息与干货参考,具体如下:

1.品牌当前经营现状:麦记牛奶目前门店超1000家,整体闭店率仅3%,处于餐饮行业低位,头部门店月实收超36万元,利润超10万元,尾部门店月实收近7万元,综合毛利率在53.5%-60%之间,堂食占比越高门店综合毛利率越高。

2.品牌现有加盟扶持政策:今年3月起,对亏损但稽核评分达标的门店实行“亏损多少补贴多少”的政策,3-5月已经累计发放补贴136万元,总部不强制加盟商开店,能给已开门店分配充足的总部资源,今年开始尝试直播等线上营销为门店引流。

3.风险提示与机会:当前糖水赛道已经出现过热情况,部分商场涌入多家糖水品牌,竞争加剧,餐饮大环境承压,今年3-4月品牌整体业绩曾下滑20%,加盟需要做好选址评估,控制外卖占比保障毛利率;机会方面,品牌目前正在拓展下沉县域和海外市场,有资源的卖家可以切入。

本文对糖水供应链相关工厂,梳理了产品需求、商业机会和发展启示,干货如下:

1.产品生产和设计需求:麦记牛奶主打自然甜鲜做糖水,要求供应商提供新鲜采摘的高品质农产品,品牌SKU精简控制在20个左右,产品高度标准化,对稳定的基础食材供给有长期需求,上新节奏提升到每季度2款,也需要供应商具备小批量灵活配套研发供给的能力。

2.商业机会:麦记牛奶目前门店已经突破1000家,还在持续拓展国内下沉县域市场和海外华人市场,拓店过程中对稳定合规的供应链合作伙伴有明确需求,符合产品要求的农产品生产、加工工厂有长期合作的机会。

3.发展启示:当前连锁糖水品牌越来越注重产品健康属性、SKU精简和高标准化,工厂可以针对性调整自身生产研发方向,适配连锁品牌降本提效、标准化运营的需求,同时针对品牌拓展海外市场的需求,可以提前布局适配海外供应的相关能力,挖掘新的增长空间。

本文为餐饮连锁相关服务商,梳理了糖水赛道的行业趋势、客户痛点和市场机会,干货如下:

1.行业发展趋势:国内糖水赛道稳定增长,市场规模逐年提升,连锁品牌快速扩张,当前已经从高速扩张转向精细化运营阶段,越来越多品牌开始尝试线上直播营销,同时积极拓展下沉市场和海外华人市场,整体发展空间较大,但也存在赛道过热、区域竞争加剧的问题。

2.品牌客户核心痛点:连锁品牌完成高速扩张后,迫切需要提升门店管理效率,保障全国门店的食品安全,同时需要为门店获取更多线上流量,应对大环境下的业绩波动,帮助亏损门店维持正常运营,平衡市场对产品上新的需求和原有产品策略的稳定性。

3.市场机会:服务商可以针对连锁餐饮品牌的需求,推出合规的门店稽核管理工具、线上流量运营服务、供应链配套服务,针对品牌拓展海外市场的需求,推出适配海外市场的运营配套服务,针对下沉市场拓店需求,提供选址、供应链适配等相关服务,挖掘新的客户增量。

本文对线下商场、餐饮加盟平台等平台商,梳理了糖水赛道的相关干货,具体内容如下:

1.品牌对平台的核心需求:麦记牛奶这类头部糖水品牌,核心需求是优质的商场点位,偏向入驻商场打造差异化竞争,目前品牌正在拓展下沉县城的优质点位,同时需要平台提供线上流量扶持,帮助门店获得更多稳定客流。

2.行业当前存在的问题:糖水赛道处于增长期,但目前已经出现过热倾向,不少商场为了缓解招商压力,大量引入糖水品牌,部分商场一家就挤入5-6家糖水店,严重加剧了行业竞争,拉高了门店闭店风险。

3.运营管理与风险规避建议:平台招商时需要控制同区域糖水品牌的入驻数量,一个商场不宜容纳两家以上糖水品牌,避免供需失衡导致大量门店闭店,影响平台长期收益;可以优先引入产品力强、管理规范的头部连锁糖水品牌,这类品牌闭店率低,抗压能力强,能给平台带来稳定租金收益;还可以和品牌合作开展线上营销活动,共同提升门店业绩。

本文为餐饮产业研究者提供了糖水赛道连锁品牌发展的最新案例与产业动向,干货整理如下:

1.产业新动向:传统糖水赛道正在迎来翻红,市场规模稳定增长,赛道内出现了一年多从53家门店扩张到千店的头部品牌,新品牌普遍主打健康自然甜的差异化定位,走商场渠道和传统糖水铺形成区分,同时头部品牌已经开始尝试拓展海外华人市场,美国首家门店运营6个月就收回成本,模式得到初步验证。

2.产业新问题:高速扩张后,连锁品牌普遍面临业绩波动、管理标准化建设、舆论危机处理等问题,赛道整体出现过热,大量玩家涌入导致区域供需失衡,竞争加剧,在大环境承压的背景下,餐饮连锁品牌如何平衡扩张速度和管理质量,成为行业需要解决的新课题。

3.商业模式参考:麦记牛奶的千店扩张是多因素组合的结果,赛道红利+差异化产品定位+创始人行业积累带来的加盟商信任共同促成了增长,其不盲目扩张、夯实产品与管理基础、稳扎稳打的扩张模式,对传统小吃赛道的连锁化品牌打造有较高的研究参考价值。

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Quick Summary

This article traces the rapid expansion of viral brown sugar water brand Maiji Milk from over 50 stores to more than 1,000 in just over a year, and addresses popular online negative rumors including founder flight, excessive fines, and unprofitable franchisees. Key takeaways are as follows:

1. Core logic behind Maiji Milk's thousand-store expansion: It capitalized on the growth dividend of the sugar water and dessert track, positioned itself as a healthy, low-burden brand focused on "natural sweetness", streamlined its SKU count to roughly 20, differentiated itself by prioritizing mall locations, and built its expansion on a large base of trusting franchisees accumulated from the founder's 15 years of experience in the food and beverage industry.

2. Response to core controversies: Founder Xie Yongliang remains the actual controller, and there is no question of him having fled the business. The brand's overall store closure rate is only 3%, far lower than the industry average; top-performing locations generate over 100,000 yuan in monthly profit. Between March and May, the brand disbursed 1.36 million yuan in subsidies to qualifying loss-making stores. Its overall gross margin ranges between 53.5% and 60%, the total amount of audit fines is far smaller than rumored, an appeal channel has been launched to standardize management, and fines are only used as a supplementary management tool.

3. The brand's next steps: It will avoid reckless expansion. While deepening its presence in mall channels domestically, it will expand into lower-tier county markets, cautiously enter overseas Chinese markets, with a long-term goal of opening locations wherever Chinese communities exist.

This article offers rich actionable insights for brand building in the sugar water track, summarized as follows:

1. Consumer trends: China's dessert market is growing steadily, projected to reach 485 billion yuan in 2025, a 5.4% year-on-year increase. Consumers increasingly favor healthy, low-burden sugar water with natural sweetness, and repurchase rate is the core metric for brands. Maiji Milk's overall repurchase rate stands at 30%.

2. Product R&D direction: The brand maintains its "freshly made, natural sweetness" positioning, streamlines SKUs to keep products highly standardized, and adjusted its new product launch pace from one per quarter to two per quarter, balancing the continuity of its product strategy and the market's demand for freshness.

3. Channel development experience: It differentiated itself by prioritizing mall locations. Lower-tier county markets currently offer low rent and labor costs, where store performance is particularly strong. Demand in overseas Chinese markets is stable; the brand's first U.S. location recouped its initial investment in just six months, leaving considerable room for growth.

4. Chain management experience: Maiji Milk actively vets franchisees instead of blindly pursuing expansion scale, optimizes its audit system with food safety as its core priority, offers subsidies to qualifying loss-making stores to maintain overall brand stability, and began testing live-stream marketing this year to drive foot traffic to stores.

This article summarizes key information and actionable insights for sellers interested in franchising with Maiji Milk, as follows:

1. Current brand operating status: Maiji Milk now operates more than 1,000 stores, with an overall 3% store closure rate, far lower than the food and beverage industry average. Top-performing locations generate over 360,000 yuan in monthly revenue and over 100,000 yuan in profit, while bottom-ranking stores record nearly 70,000 yuan in monthly revenue. Its overall gross margin ranges from 53.5% to 60%, and higher dine-in proportions correlate with higher store-level gross margins.

2. Existing franchise support policies: Starting in March this year, the brand implemented a "cover all qualified losses" subsidy policy for loss-making stores that meet audit standards, disbursing a total of 1.36 million yuan in subsidies between March and May. Headquarters does not force franchisees to open new stores, so it can allocate sufficient corporate resources to existing locations, and has begun testing online marketing channels including live-streaming to drive traffic for franchise stores.

3. Risks and opportunities: The sugar water track is currently overheated, with multiple brands crowding into some malls, intensifying competition. Amid broader pressure on the food and beverage sector, the brand's overall performance declined 20% in March and April this year. Prospective franchisees need to conduct thorough site evaluations and control the proportion of delivery orders to protect gross margins. For opportunities, the brand is currently expanding into lower-tier county markets and overseas, which is accessible for sellers with relevant local resources.

This article summarizes product demand, business opportunities and key takeaways for factories in the sugar water supply chain, as follows:

1. Product manufacturing and design requirements: Maiji Milk focuses on freshly made natural sweetness sugar water, requiring suppliers to provide high-quality, freshly harvested agricultural products. With its SKU count streamlined to roughly 20 and highly standardized products, the brand has long-term demand for stable supplies of core ingredients. With its new product launch pace increased to two per quarter, it also requires suppliers to have the capacity for flexible small-batch R&D and supporting supply.

2. Business opportunities: Maiji Milk has now exceeded 1,000 stores and continues to expand into China's lower-tier county markets and overseas Chinese markets. It has clear demand for stable, compliant supply chain partners during its expansion, so agricultural production and processing factories that meet its product standards have strong opportunities for long-term cooperation.

3. Key takeaways for development: Modern chained sugar water brands increasingly prioritize product health attributes, streamlined SKUs and high standardization. Factories can adjust their R&D and production strategies accordingly to align with chained brands' needs for cost reduction, efficiency gains and standardized operations. Additionally, as brands expand into overseas markets, factories can proactively build capabilities to support overseas supply to unlock new growth opportunities.

This article summarizes industry trends, customer pain points and market opportunities for service providers serving chained food and beverage brands, as follows:

1. Industry development trends: China's sugar water track is growing steadily with an expanding market size and rapidly expanding chained brands. The sector has now shifted from high-speed expansion to a refined operation phase. A growing number of brands are testing online live-stream marketing, while actively expanding into lower-tier markets and overseas Chinese markets, leaving large overall room for growth. However, the sector also faces challenges of overheating and intensifying regional competition.

2. Core pain points for brand clients: After completing high-speed expansion, chained brands urgently need to improve store management efficiency, ensure food safety across all national locations, acquire more online traffic for stores, address performance volatility amid broader market pressure, support loss-making stores to maintain normal operations, and balance market demand for new products with the stability of existing product strategies.

3. Market opportunities: Service providers can develop compliant store audit management tools, online traffic operation services and supporting supply chain services to meet the needs of chained food and beverage brands. To support brands expanding overseas, they can develop operation support services adapted for overseas markets, and for brands expanding into lower-tier markets, they can offer site selection and supply chain adaptation services to unlock new customer growth.

This article summarizes key insights for platform operators including offline malls and food and beverage franchise platforms, as follows:

1. Core demand from brands: Leading sugar water brands like Maiji Milk prioritize high-quality mall locations to build differentiated competitiveness. The brand is currently seeking quality sites in lower-tier counties, and also needs platforms to provide online traffic support to help stores attract stable foot traffic.

2. Current industry problems: While the sugar water track is in a growth phase, it is already showing signs of overheating. Many malls have brought in large numbers of sugar water brands to ease leasing pressure, with some malls packing in 5 to 6 sugar water stores, which has drastically intensified industry competition and increased the risk of store closures.

3. Operation and risk mitigation recommendations: Platforms should control the number of sugar water brands entering the same region; a single mall should not host more than two sugar water brands to avoid supply-demand imbalance that leads to widespread store closures and hurts long-term platform revenue. Platforms should prioritize leading chained sugar water brands with strong product offerings and standardized management, as these brands have lower closure rates, stronger resilience, and deliver stable rental revenue for platforms. Platforms can also collaborate with brands on online marketing campaigns to jointly boost store performance.

This article presents the latest case study and industry trends for chained brand development in the sugar water track for food and beverage industry researchers, summarized as follows:

1. New industry trends: The traditional sugar water track is undergoing a revival with steady market growth. A leading brand has expanded from 53 stores to 1,000 in just over a year, and new emerging brands generally adopt a differentiated positioning of healthy natural sweetness, differentiate themselves from traditional sugar water shops by focusing on mall channels, and leading brands have already begun testing expansion into overseas Chinese markets. The first U.S. location recouped its investment within six months, marking initial validation of the expansion model.

2. New industry problems: After rapid expansion, chained brands generally face challenges including performance volatility, building management standardization, and handling public relations crises. The overall track is overheated, and a flood of new entrants has led to regional supply-demand imbalance and intensified competition. Against the backdrop of broader macroeconomic pressure, how chained food and beverage brands can balance expansion speed and management quality has become a new core problem for the industry to solve.

3. Business model reference: Maiji Milk's thousand-store expansion is the result of a combination of multiple factors: track growth dividends, differentiated product positioning, and franchisee trust built from the founder's years of industry experience jointly drove growth. Its approach of avoiding reckless expansion, consolidating product and management foundations, and expanding steadily offers high research and reference value for building chained brands in the traditional snack and refreshment track.

Disclaimer: The "Quick Summary" content is entirely generated by AI. Please exercise discretion when interpreting the information. For issues or corrections, please email run@ebrun.com .

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从“狂飙”到“被质疑”,麦记牛奶在经历什么?

本文由红餐网(ID:hongcan18)原创首发,作者:钱俊;编辑:方圆。

从湖州小镇出走,到千店规模,麦记牛奶只用了一年多。

它也是翻红的糖水赛道中,最受瞩目的那一个。但跑得最快,往往也被盯得最紧。

近段时间,麦记牛奶的风评突然“急转直下”——“变着法子罚款”“加盟商不赚钱”甚至“品牌跑路”,这些说法在网上密集出现。

舆论场里,标签总是比事实跑得更快。千店规模后,这家品牌到底在经历什么?

带着这些疑问,红餐网与麦记牛奶公司总经理谢永亮进行了一次深度对话。关于争议、过去一年的扩张、这家品牌下一步的方向,在这场对话中,有了更加立体的答案。

1000+店,“狂飙”背后的麦记牛奶

在邀约采访的几天里,谢永亮更真实的状态,是始终在一线——他出现在公司各个部门的工作会议中,忙的时候,直到深夜才传来一个微信消息:“不好意思,刚刚开完会。”

与网络上“跑路”的传闻不一样,这种连轴转,是他工作的常态。

谢永亮是福建人,在杭州读大学,大一开始创业,大二就赚到“第一桶金”。毕业后,他和团队专注餐饮投资,先后投资了一些品牌,也成为了霸王茶姬、茶百道等茶饮品牌的“超级加盟商”。

2025年1月,谢永亮关注到麦记牛奶。当时的创始团队人手寥寥,门店选址和业绩也参差不齐,但他看中了这个品牌的基因——产品足够好,结构足够清晰。于是他果断投资,随后将整个运营中心迁至杭州。

“重新组织人马,把门店全部落到商场里,最高一个月新增180家门店,还要稳住业绩。”谢永亮说,过去一年是他创业以来最累的一年。

也是这一年,麦记牛奶从53家门店跑到1000多家。外界用“狂飙”形容,但对谢永亮而言,这个数字,意料之外,也在情理之中。

他将这一年的起势归结为几个因素的叠加。

首先是赛道红利。麦记牛奶踩中了甜品甜点市场的上升期。据红餐大数据,2024年全国甜品甜点市场规模为460亿元,2025年上涨至485亿元,同比增长5.4%。2026年预计将进一步增长至515亿元。

其次是产品本身的基因。麦记牛奶从一开始就主打“自然甜”的理念,谢永亮和团队加入后将SKU控制在20个左右,比同类品牌更为精简。食材选用也很“原始”,农产品新鲜采摘,现场烹制,契合了消费者对健康轻负担糖水的偏好。加上坚持选址商场的策略,让它与其他糖水品牌形成了差异。

除此之外,还有一个不可忽略的因素——人。谢永亮在餐饮行业已积累了15年,既投资过品牌,也开过数百家门店。这段经历让他既懂品牌方的管理逻辑,也懂加盟商的实际处境。

他也因此积累了一批信任他的餐饮投资人,“麦记的加盟商,大部分是我的朋友。”谢永亮说,很多人一开始是因为信任才投资麦记牛奶,后来门店业绩不错,又陆续开了二店、三店。这是品牌能够跑出千店的基础。

“麦记的成功,从来不是一个动作导致的成功,而是一整套组合拳。”谢永亮说。

不过,千店规模只是故事的A面,过去一年,麦记交出的真实成绩单究竟如何?业绩、稽核争议、高层人事变动,这些被热议的话题,背后又有着怎样的细节?

规模的另一面:业绩、制度和人

千店成绩是外界对麦记牛奶最直观的印象,但规模之外的数据,同样值得关注。

在接受红餐网采访时,谢永亮没有回避业绩波动的事实。今年3到4月,麦记牛奶整体业绩同比下滑了20%。“一是淡季,二是大环境变化,商场人流下滑。”

但还有几组数字,同样在勾勒麦记牛奶过去一年的真实处境。

红餐网了解到,在过去的6月,麦记牛奶全国排名靠前的门店月实收超过36万元,利润超过10万元;排在尾部的门店月实收近7万元。在餐饮行业整体承压的情况下,麦记牛奶表现出较强的抗压能力,在糖水赛道仍然处于头部位置。

今年3月起,公司开始对全国亏损门店中稽核评分达标的门店实行“亏损多少、公司补贴多少”的政策,3-5月已累计发放“温暖金”136万元,未来也将继续落实。

此外,在门店数量快速扩张且餐饮环境整体承压的背景下,品牌目前的整体闭店率控制在3%左右,在餐饮行业中处于较低水平。

毛利率是另一个被反复讨论的指标。

有声音指出:“加盟时承诺的堂食70%毛利率无法实现。实际毛利率仅在45%-50%之间。”谢永亮表示此为不实信息。

据谢永亮介绍,“70%”这一说法来源于品牌加盟资料中的“利润预估”,其中提到堂食毛利率约70%,外卖约55%,但附有“具体需参考门店实际经营情况”的说明——比如堂食与外卖的占比,就会对这一数字带来影响。

“总部将堂食与外卖毛利率分开标注,本意是提醒经营者,外卖毛利率天然更低。”谢永亮解释,不同门店毛利率存在差异,主要与堂食和外卖的占比结构有关——堂食占比高的门店综合毛利率更高,外卖占比高的门店则相对较低。目前麦记牛奶的门店综合毛利率在53.5%-60%之间。

“外卖大战确实影响了综合毛利率。”谢永亮说,但公司过去以及未来要做的,仍然是保证加盟商的外卖毛利率,“要稳在50个点左右。”

数据之外,另一个判断品牌健康状况的维度来自消费者。社交平台上,关于麦记牛奶的讨论中,“用料扎实”“不甜腻”“健康”是出现频率较高的评价。也有消费者提到自己是“反复回购”的老客。谢永亮此前曾向美团透露,麦记的综合复购率在30%左右。

数据和口碑直观呈现了麦记牛奶过去一年的经营成果。但结果背后,还有更多隐形的调整,包括产品、制度与人事的变动,同样构成麦记牛奶真实处境的一部分。

过去一年的麦记牛奶并非“顺风顺水”。谢永亮坦言,2026年的大环境,比他从业16年来所见过的任何时候都更为严峻,餐饮行业整体承压。

为应对大环境的变化,麦记牛奶过去一年做出了几个关键决策。

首先是产品的坚守和调整。过去一年,麦记牛奶的产品定位没有发生大的偏移。“鲜做”“自然甜”的理念仍在延续,SKU精简、不依赖季节性产品,继续保持产品的高标准化。

但坚守不等于一成不变。麦记牛奶的上新节奏正在提速——从一个季度一款调整为一个季度两款。谢永亮表示,这不是单纯追求“上新快”,而是听到了加盟商的声音,做了折中,既保持了产品策略的延续性,也回应了市场对新鲜感的需求。

其次是克制的扩张。1000家门店在外界看来夸张,但在谢永亮看来,“去年如果不是团队主动筛选,或许能签3000家。”麦记没有设立招商部门,在餐饮行业整体收缩的背景下,品牌没有给加盟商施加过度的开店压力,同时让已经开出的门店能够获得更充分的总部资源支撑。

人才与制度的迭代同样关键。过去一年,麦记牛奶持续引进高阶管理人才,对既有运营规则做补充与完善。

备受外界关注的“稽核制度”也在调整之列。这项制度实际上在公司创立之初就已存在,如今在新管理团队的介入下,被进一步优化。

事实上,稽查制度在餐饮连锁行业并不特殊,关键问题在于“罚款”的尺度与方式。

据公司内部数据,麦记牛奶超1000家门店过去一年最高月度罚款总额约为30万元,低的月份为十多万元,这一数据还包含“私自采购”等违规行为。平摊至全国门店,罚款金额和动作与网络传播的“数额巨大”存在差距。

目前,为确保稽核的客观性,总部在开出每张罚单时,会同步附上申诉二维码,为门店提供申诉通道。同时,稽核人员上门也要求佩戴记录仪,防止动作变形。

谢永亮强调,麦记牛奶的稽核以“导”为主,只有在多次劝导无效的情况下,才会采取罚款措施。

“稽核制度的存在和优化,始终是以保证食品安全为核心,罚款并非目的,而是辅助管理的手段。”谢永亮说。

另一个值得注意的变化是,麦记牛奶在营销策略上也有所调整——过去品牌较少参与线上营销推广,但今年开始已陆续尝试直播等多种方式,为门店做更多流量输入。

和这些内部管理动作的调整相似,近期公司管理层的一则人事变动同样引发外界关注——有传闻称,谢永亮已将公司转手给一名姓戴的老板并准备“跑路”。但据企查查显示,谢永亮仍然是麦记牛奶背后的实际控制人。

谢永亮表示,谣传中这位“戴姓老板”,实际是公司原本的副总经理戴志华,分管公司行政工作。这次调整,仅是为了方便日常事务处理,将其调整至湖州香麦麦餐饮管理有限公司担任法人和总经理。但在外界解读中,这些内部管理动作被粗暴贴上了“跑路”的标签。

在我们细致深入到这些备受争议的标签背后,麦记牛奶过去一年更真实的轮廓,逐渐浮现。但更本质的问题或许还在于:糖水这个赛道,还有多大的空间?在谢永亮也认为餐饮行业正面临16年来最严峻调整的当下,麦记牛奶的下一轮增长空间,又会在哪里?

“糖水不会消失,只有品牌会被迭代”

“我不会鼓吹这个行业有多好。糖水没有茶饮那么广大的用户群体,这是事实。”谢永亮对赛道的判断,一直清醒克制。

在大环境不明朗的情况下,他对公司下一步怎么走很明确:不设开店目标,不盲目扩张,但也不会停下脚步。

“我从来没想过把它做成像茶饮品牌这么大的规模,不会去想5000家、10000家,但是1000多家、2000多家,逻辑上是成立的。我们把产品做对,把底层逻辑做好,把基本功夯实,我觉得是有希望的。”

谢永亮最近观察到一个现象:随着糖水赛道热度上涨,许多商场在招商承压之下,开始大量引入多家糖水品牌,一些创业者的盲目乐观则加剧了这一趋势,一家商场“挤”了5-6家糖水店的情况时有发生。

谢永亮认为,这无疑加剧了糖水品牌的生存困境,“一个商场可以容纳很多家茶饮店,却无法容纳两家以上的糖水店。”一旦过多玩家涌入,就会破坏原有的供需平衡。”无论是商场侧还是品牌侧,都应该警惕这种过热带来的风险。

但对糖水本身,他并不悲观。“有中国人的地方就有糖水,糖水不会消失,只有品牌会被迭代。”

千店之后,麦记牛奶的增长空间会在哪里?

国内市场,麦记牛奶将继续深耕商场渠道,选择合适的点位开店;另一方面,下沉市场也正在成为新的突破口——麦记牛奶已在县城铺开数十家门店,南方县域市场的表现相对突出,更低的房租和人力成本,叠加稳定的客流,部分门店月营收已突破二十万元。

海外市场同样在推进。据了解,2025年10月,麦记牛奶在美国洛杉矶开出首家海外门店,前期投入30多万美元,门店经营6个月后收回成本。目前美国已有3家门店投入运营,另有7家门店处于装修阶段。

谢永亮透露,麦记牛奶今年海外拓店节奏将有所加快,但仍不设具体开店目标。目前,澳洲的一店和二店、新西兰、加拿大的首店都在陆续落地。新加坡、日本、韩国的首店则正在洽谈。

“我有一个梦想,把麦记开到全世界有华人的地方。”谢永亮说。但在他看来,“开到”并非一次性铺开。海外的扩张,谢永亮仍然很谨慎,并且只在找到合适的合作伙伴后才会行动。

这与国内的节奏一脉相承,在糖水这个传统的赛道里,不追风口,不盲目扩张,把产品、供应链和门店模型一件一件事逐步打磨扎实,这是麦记牛奶的节奏,也是谢永亮自己的节奏。

“企业盈利很重要,但我的初心,更在于做好一个品牌。”谢永亮不止一次提到这句话。

接下来,麦记牛奶能不能在这个充满不确定的周期里跑得更远,时间会给出答案。

注:文/红餐编辑部,文章来源:红餐网(公众号ID:hongcan18),本文为作者独立观点,不代表亿邦动力立场。

文章来源:红餐网

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FAQ回顾

麦记牛奶是哪个赛道的品牌?

麦记牛奶是糖水赛道头部品牌,主打“鲜做”“自然甜”的健康糖水产品,SKU精简至20个左右,食材多为新鲜采摘现场烹制,门店优先选址商场,仅用一年多时间就从53家扩张至千店规模。

麦记牛奶的经营情况怎么样?

麦记牛奶整体闭店率控制在3%左右,处于餐饮行业较低水平。2026年3-4月整体业绩同比下滑20%,头部门店月实收超36万元、利润超10万元,尾部门店月实收近7万元,对亏损且稽核达标的门店实行亏损全额补贴政策,3-5月累计发放补贴136万元。

麦记牛奶的稽核制度是怎样的?

麦记牛奶稽核制度以保障食品安全为核心,以劝导为主,多次劝导无效才会处以罚款。目前总部开罚单时会同步附上申诉二维码,稽核人员上门需佩戴记录仪,过去一年超千家门店最高月度罚款总额约30万元,远低于网传的“数额巨大”表述。

糖水赛道的市场发展前景如何?

据红餐大数据,2024年全国甜品甜点市场规模为460亿元,2025年上涨至485亿元,同比增长5.4%,2026年预计将进一步增长至515亿元,整体处于稳步上升期,有广泛的消费者基础。

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