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欧洲“院墙”越垒越高 中国车越卖越多

Maggie 2026-06-29 12:57
Maggie 2026/06/29 12:57

邦小白快读

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本文核心梳理了欧盟对中国新能源汽车筑高贸易壁垒,但中国车企对欧出口销量逆势增长的行业现状,核心干货如下:

1. 核心数据:2026年一季度中国对欧出口汽车43.84万辆,同比增长84.7%;2026年4月中国品牌在欧市占率达9.8%,纯电市占率15.2%,插混市占率逼近29%,均创下历史新高,2026年全年市占率有望突破10%。

2. 中国车企的应对思路:欧盟对纯电加征关税后,车企迅速调整出口重心,加大插混车型出口抓住政策窗口期,同时加快布局欧洲本地化生产规避关税成本。

3. 行业阶段判断:中国车企出海已经告别低价冲量的草莽时代,进入体系化深耕、品牌建设的新阶段,未来核心挑战是在欧洲建立可预期的本地信任。

本文梳理了中欧汽车贸易最新形势,以及中国品牌出海欧洲的可借鉴经验与市场趋势,核心干货如下:

1. 当前贸易环境:欧盟已经从单一对纯电加征反补贴关税,转向构建包含产品关税、投资准入、本地含量要求的全方位壁垒,最新计划将插混也纳入加税范围,《工业加速器法案》待生效后,CBU整车出口盈利空间将被持续挤压。

2. 市场机会:当前欧洲插混市场仍有政策红利,需求缺口大,中国插混产品性价比优势突出,2026年一季度插混出口增速达152.4%,远高于纯电,短期仍是避开关税的核心增长点。

3. 品牌建设经验:中国品牌不再只靠低价竞争,已经开始布局高端品牌,如比亚迪推出腾势高端子品牌,奇瑞进入西班牙私人渠道销量前十,靠更高的配置、续航获得消费者认可,正逐步从“卖车”向“立品牌”转型。

本文梳理了中国汽车出口欧洲的最新政策变化、机会风险与应对方案,核心干货如下:

1. 最新政策与风险提示:欧盟已对中国纯电加征差异化反补贴关税,最高综合税率可达45.3%,价格承诺谈判尚未落地,最新计划将插混也纳入反补贴范围,《工业加速器法案》对本地化生产、雇佣、零部件占比提出强制要求,留给CBU出口的盈利空间已经非常小,政策窗口期不足一年。

2. 市场机会:欧洲市场需求旺盛,中国品牌市占率从2021年的0.5%升至近10%,纯电、插混市占率分别达15.2%、29%,整体销量保持高速增长,增长空间充足。

3. 可借鉴的应对措施:短期调整产品结构,用大续航油电平价插混绕开关税,纯电主攻低关税市场孵化品牌;长期加快本地化布局,优先通过收购、租赁、代工合作快速落地产能,自建工厂周期长难以赶上法案生效节点,不适合当前节奏。

本文为国内汽车工厂布局出海欧洲提供了最新需求参考与落地路径,核心干货如下:

1. 产品生产需求调整:欧洲当前插混车型需求增速远超纯电,2026年一季度中国对欧插混出口同比增长152.4%,中国现有插混车型不需要额外开发就能直接出口,国内工厂可调整产能结构对接这一出口需求。

2. 本地化商业机会:欧洲本土整车工厂平均产能利用率仅55%,远低于80%的盈亏平衡线,大量闲置产能亟待盘活,欧洲车企有强烈的合作意愿,国内工厂可以低成本通过收购、租赁、代工合作获得欧洲本地产能,规避关税与政策限制。

3. 落地启示:欧盟《工业加速器法案》最早2027年中期生效,留给国内工厂的落地时间不足一年,自建工厂周期长无法赶在生效前量产,优先选择轻资产合作模式快速落地,后续再逐步布局自有产能,奇瑞、零跑等已经有成熟的探索案例可参考。

本文梳理了中国汽车出海欧洲的最新行业趋势,以及车企的核心痛点与市场机会,核心干货如下:

1. 行业发展趋势:中国汽车出海欧洲已经从早期的整车出口试水,进入体系化深耕、本地化布局的新阶段,产业逻辑从出口转向本地制造,据机构估计,未来中国车企每年在欧洲的产能将达到200多万辆,市场规模持续扩张。

2. 客户核心痛点:当前中国车企面临的核心痛点是欧盟贸易壁垒持续加高,CBU出口盈利空间被大幅压缩,《工业加速器法案》要求本地化生产,留给车企的落地时间不足一年,自建产能周期长无法满足时间要求,同时车企对欧盟政策合规要求不熟悉,缺乏本地资源对接渠道。

3. 市场服务机会:服务商可针对性布局,一方面对接欧洲闲置产能资源,为中国车企提供收购、合作、代工的对接服务,另一方面提供合规咨询服务,帮助车企满足欧盟的持股、雇佣、零部件占比等要求,还可提供品牌落地、信任建设相关的配套服务。

本文梳理了中国汽车出海欧洲的最新动向,为平台运营、招商、风险规避提供了参考,核心干货如下:

1. 产业对平台的核心需求:中国车企加速布局欧洲本地化,迫切需要平台对接欧洲闲置产能、本地供应链、合规服务等资源,多数车企对欧盟最新政策不熟悉,需要平台提供政策解读、落地对接的全流程支持,帮助快速完成产能与市场落地。

2. 招商方向:不同体量的车企有不同的落地需求,头部车企适合合资工厂项目,中小品牌更偏好轻资产代工合作模式,平台可针对不同需求分层对接,链接欧洲闲置产能方和中国车企,打造双向共赢的合作模式。

3. 风险规避提示:欧盟对华汽车政策不确定性较强,价格承诺谈判未落地,《工业加速器法案》仍在表决,政策变化较快,平台需要持续跟进政策动态,提前梳理合规标准,帮助客户调整布局,规避政策与合规风险。

本文呈现了中欧新能源汽车贸易的最新博弈格局,以及中国汽车出海的新动向,为产业研究提供了核心素材,核心内容如下:

1. 产业新动向:欧盟对华新能源汽车贸易壁垒已经从单一的关税救济,升级为包含产品关税、投资准入、本地含量、技术转让要求的全方位制度性防护体系,贸易规则发生根本性变化;中国汽车出海也完成了三轮升级,从试水出口到调整产品绕开关税,再到当前全面布局本地化,进入体系化深耕阶段。

2. 新合作模式特征:中国车企当前本地化布局没有一味追求自建产能,而是结合时间窗口要求,大量采用收购、租赁、代工合资等轻资产快速落地模式,依托中国技术成本优势激活欧洲闲置产能,是双向互补的新型合作模式,区别于传统出海模式。

3. 待研究的新问题:中国车企落地后,核心挑战从产能布局转向本地软信任建设,包括工程语言对接、决策机制适配、品牌信任建立等,这将是决定中国车企能否长期立足欧洲的关键,是值得深入研究的新方向。

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Quick Summary

This article outlines the current industry landscape where the European Union has erected heightened trade barriers against Chinese new energy vehicles, yet Chinese automakers' export volumes to Europe have grown against the trend. Key takeaways are as follows:

1. Core data: In Q1 2026, China exported 438,400 vehicles to Europe, up 84.7% year-on-year; by April 2026, Chinese brands held a 9.8% market share in Europe, with a 15.2% share in the pure electric vehicle (BEV) segment and nearly 29% in the plug-in hybrid (PHEV) segment, all hitting record highs. The full-year 2026 market share is expected to exceed 10%.

2. Chinese automakers' coping strategies: After the EU imposed additional tariffs on BEVs, automakers quickly shifted their export focus, ramped up PHEV exports to capitalize on the current policy window, and accelerated the layout of local production in Europe to avoid tariff costs.

3. Industry stage assessment: Chinese automakers' overseas expansion has left behind the early rough-and-tumble era of competing on low prices for volume, and entered a new phase of systematic deep cultivation and brand building. The core long-term challenge is building predictable local trust in Europe.

This article sorts out the latest developments in China-EU automotive trade, along with actionable insights and market trends for Chinese brands expanding into Europe. Key takeaways are as follows:

1. Current trade environment: The EU has shifted from imposing countervailing tariffs solely on BEVs to building a comprehensive barrier covering product tariffs, investment access and local content requirements. It now plans to include PHEVs in the additional tariff scope. Once the Industrial Accelerator Act enters into force, profit margins for completely built-up (CBU) vehicle exports will be continuously squeezed.

2. Market opportunities: The European PHEV market still offers policy dividends and has a large unmet demand. Chinese PHEV products boast a standout cost advantage, with PHEV exports surging 152.4% year-on-year in Q1 2026, far outpacing BEV growth. PHEVs will remain the core tariff-avoiding growth driver in the short term.

3. Brand building insights: Chinese brands are no longer relying solely on low-price competition, and have begun rolling out premium offerings. For example, BYD launched its premium sub-brand Denza, and Chery has entered the top 10 for private channel sales in Spain, winning consumer recognition through better configurations and longer range. Chinese brands are gradually shifting from "selling cars" to "building brands".

This article summarizes the latest policy changes, opportunities, risks and coping solutions for Chinese vehicle exports to Europe. Key takeaways are as follows:

1. Latest policy and risk alerts: The EU has already imposed differentiated countervailing tariffs on Chinese BEVs, with a maximum combined tariff rate of 45.3%. Price commitment negotiations have not yet concluded, and the EU now plans to add PHEVs to the countervailing investigation scope. The Industrial Accelerator Act sets mandatory requirements for local production, local hiring and local content share, leaving very little profit margin for CBU exports, with a policy window of less than one year.

2. Market opportunities: European market demand remains robust. Chinese brands' market share has risen from 0.5% in 2021 to nearly 10%, with 15.2% and 29% shares in the BEV and PHEV segments respectively. Overall sales maintain high-speed growth, leaving ample room for further expansion.

3. Actionable coping strategies: In the short term, adjust product strategy to circumvent tariffs with long-range, affordable PHEVs, while focusing BEV expansion on low-tariff markets to build brand awareness. In the long run, accelerate local layout: prioritize capacity deployment through acquisition, leasing and contract manufacturing to launch production quickly, as greenfield factory projects have long lead times that cannot align with the Act's effective date and do not fit the current timeline.

This article provides the latest demand references and implementation paths for Chinese automotive factories looking to expand into Europe. Key insights are as follows:

1. Production adjustment: Current PHEV demand growth in Europe far outpaces BEVs, with Chinese PHEV exports to Europe surging 152.4% year-on-year in Q1 2026. Existing Chinese PHEV models can be exported directly without additional development, so domestic factories can adjust their capacity mix to meet this export demand.

2. Local business opportunities: The average capacity utilization rate of European native vehicle factories is only 55%, far below the 80% breakeven threshold, leaving large amounts of idle capacity waiting to be activated. European automakers have strong willingness to cooperate, allowing Chinese factories to acquire local capacity at low cost through acquisition, leasing and contract manufacturing partnerships, to avoid tariffs and policy restrictions.

3. Implementation takeaways: The EU's Industrial Accelerator Act will take effect as early as mid-2027, leaving less than one year for Chinese factories to complete local deployment. Greenfield projects have long lead times and cannot achieve mass production before the effective date. Companies should prioritize asset-light cooperation models for quick launch, and gradually build self-owned capacity later. Chery, Leapmotor and other companies already have mature exploratory cases for reference.

This article summarizes the latest industry trends of Chinese automakers expanding into Europe, as well as automakers' core pain points and corresponding market opportunities for service providers. Key takeaways are as follows:

1. Industry development trends: Chinese automakers' expansion into Europe has evolved from early trial CBU exports to a new stage of systematic deep cultivation and local layout. The core industry logic has shifted from export to local manufacturing. Industry estimates project that Chinese automakers will have an annual production capacity of over 2 million vehicles in Europe in the coming years, with the market continuing to expand.

2. Core customer pain points: The core challenge facing Chinese automakers is the continuously rising EU trade barriers, which have sharply compressed profit margins for CBU exports. The Industrial Accelerator Act mandates local production, leaving automakers less than one year to complete local deployment. Greenfield capacity projects take too long to meet the timeline requirement. In addition, automakers are unfamiliar with EU policy compliance requirements and lack access to local resource connection channels.

3. Service market opportunities: Service providers can build targeted offerings: on one hand, connect idle European capacity resources to provide matching services for acquisitions, partnerships and contract manufacturing for Chinese automakers; on the other hand, provide compliance consulting to help automakers meet EU requirements on shareholding, local hiring and local content. Additional supporting services for brand launch and trust building are also in high demand.

This article sorts out the latest developments of Chinese automakers expanding into Europe, providing references for platform operation, investment recruitment and risk mitigation. Key takeaways are as follows:

1. Core industry demand for platforms: As Chinese automakers accelerate their local layout in Europe, they urgently need platforms to connect resources including idle European capacity, local supply chains and compliance services. Most automakers are unfamiliar with the latest EU policies, and require end-to-end support from platforms for policy interpretation and local implementation to quickly complete capacity and market entry.

2. Investment recruitment direction: Automakers of different sizes have different localization needs: leading automakers are suited for joint venture factory projects, while small and medium-sized brands prefer asset-light contract manufacturing cooperation models. Platforms can match demand in a segmented manner, connecting idle European capacity holders with Chinese automakers to build a win-win cooperation model for both sides.

3. Risk mitigation alerts: EU policy toward Chinese vehicles remains highly uncertain: price commitment negotiations are unresolved, the Industrial Accelerator Act is still undergoing voting, and policy changes are frequent. Platforms need to continuously track policy updates, sort out compliance standards in advance, and help clients adjust their layout to avoid policy and compliance risks.

This article presents the latest game landscape in China-EU new energy vehicle trade, as well as new trends in Chinese automakers' overseas expansion, providing core material for industry research. Key content is as follows:

1. New industry trends: The EU's trade barriers against Chinese new energy vehicles have upgraded from single tariff measures to a comprehensive institutional protective system covering product tariffs, investment access, local content and technology transfer requirements, marking a fundamental shift in trade rules. Chinese automakers' overseas expansion has also completed three rounds of upgrading: from trial exports, to adjusting product mix to circumvent tariffs, to the current comprehensive localization layout, entering the stage of systematic deep cultivation.

2. Characteristics of the new cooperation model: In their current localization layout, Chinese automakers are not blindly pursuing self-built capacity. Instead, aligned with the tight policy window, they are widely adopting asset-light quick-launch models including acquisition, leasing, contract manufacturing and joint ventures, activating idle European capacity by leveraging Chinese technological and cost advantages. This is a new mutually complementary cooperation model that differs from traditional overseas expansion approaches.

3. New questions for future research: After completing localization, Chinese automakers' core challenge has shifted from capacity layout to building local soft trust, including alignment on engineering communication, adaptation of decision-making mechanisms and building brand trust. This will be the key determining factor for whether Chinese automakers can gain a long-term foothold in Europe, and is a new direction worthy of in-depth research.

Disclaimer: The "Quick Summary" content is entirely generated by AI. Please exercise discretion when interpreting the information. For issues or corrections, please email run@ebrun.com .

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2026年6月,据德国《商报》消息,欧盟委员会正计划对中国产插电式混合动力汽车加征反补贴关税。据悉,相关准备工作已经完成。

尽管欧洲壁垒将持续加高,但中国汽车出海欧洲销量和市场份额却逆势增长。

据盖世汽车研究院数据,2026年一季度,中国汽车对欧洲市场的出口量为43.84万,同比增长84.7%;纯电动汽车方面,出口量达到19.83万辆,同比增长94.6%;插电式混合动力车型方面,出口量为10.6万辆,同比增长152.4%。另外,据相关数据,2026年4月,中国品牌在欧洲市场份额攀升至9.8%,创下历史新高,其中,纯电车市占率首次突破15%。

这组看似矛盾的现象,恰恰构成了理解当下中欧汽车博弈的关键切口。

欧盟筑起贸易高墙

2024年10月,欧盟正式对中国产进口电动汽车征收为期五年的反补贴关税。在欧盟统一征收的10%进口关税基础上,针对不同企业叠加差异化的反补贴税率:比亚迪17.0%,吉利18.8%,上汽集团35.3%,其他配合调查的企业如蔚来、小鹏为20.7%。部分车型的综合税率因此最高可达45.3%。

此后,中欧双方并未停止磋商。2025年4月,中欧高层会谈同意立即开展电动汽车价格承诺谈判,探讨以最低进口价格机制替代关税。

2026年1月12日,中欧双方已就价格承诺达成框架共识,欧方同步发布《关于提交价格承诺申请的指导文件》,符合条件的中国纯电动汽车出口商可以此机制替代反补贴征税。这一共识被业界视为中欧电动汽车贸易争端解决的关键突破。

不过,截至2026年6月,价格承诺磋商仍在推进中,尚未完全落地执行。

此前,欧盟主要针对纯电动汽车进行反补贴关税策略,插电式混合动力汽车未被纳入,针对这一状况,中国车企迅速调整其出口策略,加速推进相关车型出海。

行业权威数据统计也进一步印证了中国车企的这一转向。盖世研究院数据显示,2026年一季度中国对欧出口插电式混合动力车型为10.6万辆,同比增长152.4%,纯电动汽车出口量为19.83万辆,同比增长94.6%。插电式混合动力车型增速显著快于纯电动车。

据权威数据统计,2026年4月,中国插电式混合动力车型在欧洲市场的销量占比已逼近29%,而纯电车型同期市占率为15.2%,插混的渗透速度明显快于纯电。这一数据清晰地表明,在欧盟对纯电动汽车加征反补贴关税后,中国车企的出口重心已向插混车型倾斜。

欧盟委员会此次计划将反补贴关税扩展至插混车型,正是针对这一市场变化作出的“补漏”动作。相关消息人士称,鉴于插混车型在中国同样获得与纯电动车相近的政策支持,其向欧洲出口量的增长“被视为对本地汽车产业构成潜在冲击”。

除开关税之外,欧盟正在进一步搭建更高维度的制度性壁垒。

2026年3月4日,欧盟委员会正式公布了《工业加速器法案》(简称IAA)提案。该法案意味着欧盟产业治理逻辑从传统的“防御型贸易救济”加速转向“附条件市场准入”模式。对此,盖世汽车研究院分析师指出,自2024年底欧盟对华纯电动汽车加征反补贴税以来,整车CBU出口模式的盈利与生存空间正在遭遇历史性的红线挤压。

据IAA法案,欧盟拟对来自全球关键行业制造产能占比超40%的国家、投资额超1亿欧元的项目实施严格审查。审查条件设置了六项合规要求,企业须至少满足其中四项方可获批:外资持股不超过49%、以合资企业形式投资、向欧盟实体许可知识产权并转让专有技术、在欧盟境内投入不低于企业年度营业额1%的研发资金、本地员工比例不低于50%、本地零部件配套占比不低于30%。其中,50%欧盟雇员的要求被设定为强制性门槛,不受“六选四”规则支配,必须无例外遵守。

在公共采购领域,法案明确要求参与欧盟公共采购的电动汽车须在欧盟境内组装,且非电池零部件的本地含量不低于70%。

法案虽未点名具体国家,但在电池、电动汽车、光伏、关键原材料等四个被划定的“新兴战略行业”中,中国企业在全球产能中的占比均超过40%的触发门槛——中国新能源车产能占全球超70%,电池约80%。多位法律与行业分析人士指出,该法案的实际影响将主要集中于中国投资者。

IAA后续尚需经欧洲议会和欧盟理事会批准方可生效。5月28日,欧盟工业部长召开了首次政策辩论;6月18日至19日的欧洲理事会会议最终仍未做出最终表决,讨论仍在持续推进中。

从产品关税到投资准入,从本地含量到技术转让——欧盟正在构建一套全方位的立体防护体系。

欧洲墙高,挡不住中国车

在关税与制度性壁垒不断加高的背景下,中国品牌在欧洲市场的销量却仍在持续增长。

据盖世研究院数据,2026年一季度,中国汽车对欧洲出口量为43.84万辆,同比增长84.7%;2025年全年出口量为121.18万辆,相比2024年的89.84万辆增长了三分之一有余。

另外,其他相关权威数据从市场占比方面也勾勒出一条清晰的轨迹:中国品牌在欧盟的市场份额从2021年的0.5%飙升至2026年春季的近10%。2026年4月,这一数字进一步攀升至9.8%,一举打破2025年12月9.5%的历史纪录。

有机构预测,2026年全年有望正式突破10%。在欧洲纯电动汽车市场,中国品牌4月市占率达15.2%,创历史新高;在插电混动市场,这一数字更是逼近29%。

具体到车企层面,各家品牌均保持了增长态势。

盖世汽车研究院数据显示,奇瑞汽车依旧稳居中国品牌对欧洲出口量榜首,2026年一季度出口量接近11万辆,同比增长228.4%;上汽集团紧随其后,一季度出口量达9.63万辆,同比增长36.2%;其次是比亚迪,一季度出口量达到6.79万辆。零跑汽车依托与Stellantis的深度合作,一季度出口量达到2.51万辆,同比暴涨400%,增速可观。

据盖世汽车研究院数据,2024年,零跑对欧洲出口量仅为数千辆,2025年出口量近4万辆,翻了约10倍。进入2026年,零跑汽车对欧出口量,一个季度便达到2025年整年的六成有余。

值得注意的是,中国品牌的增长并非仅靠“低价”取胜。比亚迪在欧洲推出了高端子品牌腾势;奇瑞在西班牙市场的品牌组合已进入私人渠道销量前十。外媒的评论颇为直白:奔驰EQA起售价5万欧元出头,同价位的中国品牌配置和续航里程明显高出一截,“消费者不傻”。

2026年一季度,在中国汽车出海欧洲的43.84万的总数中,纯电、插混分别占比为45.2%、24.2%,同比增长分别94.6%和152.4%。从动力类型的增速来看,插混与增程的增长势头明显快于纯电——这正是欧盟此前对纯电加征关税、对插混尚未设限所留下的市场空间。

对此,盖世汽车研究院分析师建议中国车企要用大续航、油电平价的插混产品作为出口利刃绕过纯电高关税壁垒,同时让纯电车型主攻低关税、高渗透市场来进行品牌孵化。这一建议和蔚来副总裁张晖的看法不谋而合,张晖表示:中国车企出海欧洲在纯电的基础上,应增加PHEV、HEV的供给,并直言:“对很多中国车企而言,这并不需要额外进行车型开发,只需将中国现有车型提供到这里来”。

中国品牌抓住了这一窗口期,迅速将插混产品推向欧洲市场,并在短时间内实现了份额的快速拉升。从2021年不足1%的市占率,到如今逼近10%,中国品牌在欧洲的存在感已不可同日而语。

更重要的是,这一轮增长并非依靠低价产品的短暂冲量——比亚迪在欧洲推出了高端子品牌腾势,奇瑞在西班牙市场的品牌组合已进入私人渠道销量前十,中国品牌正在从“卖车”走向“立品牌”。

盖世汽车研究院分析师表示,中国车企出海欧洲已正式告别“草莽时代”,开始跨入“先择赛道精细运营、再塑产品工程对齐、后落产能梯度深耕”的体系化输出时代。从边缘到主流,从试水到深耕——中国品牌正在完成一场从“闯入者”到“参与者”的身份转换。

“扫货”本地化:矛盾何以成立

关税越高,本地化生产的动力就越强。这正是“墙越高、车越多”这一矛盾得以成立的底层逻辑。

先算一笔关税账。以国内某主机厂例,其适用欧盟反补贴税率17.4%,叠加10%基础关税,综合税率约27.4%。一辆售价约3.2万欧元的车型,其单车关税成本约8,700欧元。而本地化生产后,这部分成本可以直接归零,单车利润改善空间约15%至20%。

另外,拟议中的IAA法案最早预计2027年中期正式生效,这意味着留给中国车企的时间不多了,窗口期不足一年。这意味着任何需要两到三年才能落地的自建工厂计划,都无法赶在法案生效前实现量产。因此,收购或租赁欧洲现有工厂、在最短时间内完成改造并投产,成为中国车企唯一可行的选项。

于是,一场“扫货”欧洲工厂的行动正在加速展开。奇瑞通过持股40%与西班牙Ebro集团合资,重启原日产巴塞罗那工厂,预计2026年底或2027年一季度投产,初期年产能3万辆。同时,奇瑞还和日产签署谅解备忘录,探讨由英国桑德兰工厂代工。

上汽集团旗下MG品牌则选择在西班牙加利西亚自建整车厂,首期投资约2亿欧元,年产能规划12万辆,预计2028年投产。零跑汽车则采取轻资产路径,直接借助Stellantis的西班牙萨拉戈萨工厂,将于2026年10月起量产B10车型。此外,吉利、东风、小鹏等车企也通过收购产线或代工合作等方式,在西班牙、法国、奥地利等地推进各自的欧洲落地计划。

据相关机构5月的一份报告估计,根据已宣布和报道的协议,中国汽车制造商最终每年可能在欧洲生产200多万辆汽车。从依赖整车出口到布局本地制造,中国车企正在加速完成这一模式转换。

这场“扫货”之所以能够成行,不仅因为中国车企有强烈的本地化需求,更因为欧洲工厂有大量闲置产能亟待盘活。

数据显示,欧洲整车工厂平均产能利用率仅约55%,远低于80%的盈亏平衡线。例如,Stellantis的欧洲工厂产能利用率已低至46%。截至2024年12月,据相关统计,与2019年产量水平相比,Stellantis未使用产能约为160万辆,同期大众汽车集团比Stellantis多80万辆。仅在过去一年,奥迪布鲁塞尔工厂、日产巴塞罗那工厂和福特德国萨尔路易斯工厂就相继宣布关闭或停产。

产能长期过剩,设备折旧与日常维护等固定成本却不会随产量减少而降低,闲置产能每天都在产生亏损。对欧洲车企而言,与中国车企合作则是盘活资产、保住就业的现实出路。正如行业观察者所言,这并非单方面的“入侵”,而是一场双向奔赴。

此外,由于电池技术滞后及原材料成本较高,欧洲电动车制造成本比中国高出至少30%——这是一道短期内难以逾越的鸿沟。中国车企带着技术和资金进入欧洲,实际上是在用“中国效率”激活“欧洲产能”。

从另一个角度看,欧盟推动本地化也并非全然出于防御。通过股比限制和本地含量要求,欧盟试图在引入中国投资的同时维持对产业的主导权。

这是一场博弈:中国车企用本地化生产规避关税壁垒,欧盟则用规则锁定本地就业和技术留存,双方各取所需,却又各怀警惕。

结语

欧盟对中国新能源汽车贸易“院墙”越垒越高,而中国品牌在欧洲市场的销量和份额却仍在持续攀升。两者看似矛盾,实则互为注脚——关税越高,就越倒逼中国车企加速本地化布局。

本地化生产一旦铺开,市场份额的增长就不再只是靠性价比冲量,而是有了真正的产能支撑。这场从“出口”到“制造”的转变,正在重塑中国汽车出海的底层逻辑。

正如均胜电子欧洲总经理吴枚所言,物理上的产能落地只是开始,对于中国车企而言,真正的挑战在于能否在欧洲建立起“可预期”的信任——从工程语言的对接、决策速度的提升,到承诺的可靠兑现。围墙可以被绕过,但信任的建立没有捷径。

注:文/Maggie,文章来源:盖世汽车(公众号ID:gasgooweb),本文为作者独立观点,不代表亿邦动力立场。

文章来源:盖世汽车

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