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达播值钱的东西还在

新熵-新消费组 2026-06-29 10:37
新熵-新消费组 2026/06/29 10:37

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这篇文章解答了当前达人直播是否会走向末路的问题,核心结论是达播不会消亡,只会完成价值重估,和崛起的店播形成互补关系,核心干货整理如下:

1. 当前行业现状:流量红利见顶后,旧达播模式难以为继,国内头部美妆TOP20品牌中85%都缩减了达人推广预算,蓝月亮因过度依赖达播亏多赚少,最终解散达播团队转做自播,头部达人生态也进入调整期。

2. 未来达播会转型为超级商超,核心竞争力从低价叫卖变成选品信任背书,像山姆、胖东来一样帮消费者选好品,消费者不用费力比价就能放心买,踩坑概率会大幅降低。

3. 达播和店播分工明确:达播负责推新品做曝光,店播负责做日常服务和复购,两者各司其职,最终都要回归让消费者放心买的生意本质。

本文给品牌布局直播电商渠道提供了清晰的战略方向,明确了当前直播行业的消费趋势和分工逻辑,干货如下:

1. 行业趋势与风险:当前流量成本越来越高,消费者购物更理性,传统达播高坑位费+全网最低价模式会让品牌陷入高曝光低利润、难复购的困局,过度依赖达播会大幅侵蚀利润,蓝月亮两年烧百亿营销费最终解散达播团队就是典型案例,目前85%头部美妆品牌已经在缩减达播预算。

2. 渠道布局建议:不要将达播和店播对立,二者是互补的双增长引擎,店播负责日常用户渗透和复购沉淀,能帮品牌掌握定价权和用户资产,达播负责新品破圈和曝光冲量,非常适合做品牌新品首发阵地。

3. 合作方向:可选择已经完成商超化转型的头部达播合作,依托达人的信任背书帮新品完成冷启动破圈,降低新品牌推广的不确定性。

本文给做直播带货的卖家梳理了当前行业的风险、机会和应对方向,干货内容如下:

1. 风险提示:旧的达播模式已经跑不通,只靠卷低价、博流量的劣质达播会被行业淘汰,卖家如果过度依赖头部达播带货,很容易陷入卖得多亏得多的困境,一定要提前调整布局,避免重蹈蓝月亮的覆辙。

2. 转型方向:达播想要存活要走商超化路线,抓好三个核心:一是做差异化,依托平台扶持深挖新品打造货盘稀缺性,比如胡可直播间日常新品占比高达80%-90%,618服饰品类同比增长60%;二是用AI工具提升选品效率,释放主播精力做内容讲解;三是做精细运营,通过严苛选品打造用户信任。

3. 模式选择:达播店播互补,达播做爆发破圈,店播做长期用户沉淀,虽然店播前期搭建慢成本高,但熬过后就能成为稳定利润来源。

本文给对接直播电商的工厂梳理了产品需求变化和新的商业机会,也给出了数字化转型的启示,干货如下:

1. 产品生产设计新需求:达播完成商超化转型后,核心竞争力是差异化货盘,对新品、稀缺品的需求大幅提升,同时对产品品质要求更高,工厂在产品研发设计端,可以侧重开发差异化新品,打磨产品品质,更好匹配达播的货盘需求,拿到更多合作机会。

2. 新商业机会:目前很多新品、新品牌缺少冷启动的流量入口,转型后的头部达播刚好需要差异化货盘,工厂可以依托自身生产能力,对接新品牌做代工,或者推出自有差异化新品,和头部达播合作获得曝光破圈的机会,打开新销路。

3. 数字化启示:达播行业已经在用AI工具提升选品运营效率,大幅降低人力时间成本,工厂也可以推进数字化工具应用,更快捕捉市场需求变化,提升整体运营效率。

本文梳理了直播电商行业最新发展趋势,明确了当前行业玩家的核心痛点,也给出了服务商的业务方向,干货如下:

1. 行业发展新趋势:直播电商已经从流量投机转向品质深耕,达播进入商超化转型阶段,店播高速增长,达播和店播互补的双引擎模式成为行业共识,行业对精细化运营、数字化工具、品质服务的需求大幅提升,赛道机会明显。

2. 核心客户痛点:达播商家的痛点是旧模式难以为继,缺提升选品效率、打造差异化货盘、建立用户信任的成熟方法;品牌商家的痛点是达播投入产出比持续走低,店播搭建全链路难度大、周期长、成本高,缺专业第三方支持。

3. 业务方向:服务商可以针对达播推出AI选品工具、精细化运营服务,帮助达播搭建选品筛选机制,打造高品质直播场景;针对品牌推出店播全链路搭建、团队培训、达播资源对接等服务,精准匹配市场需求。

本文给直播平台的运营、生态建设、招商等环节提供了参考方向,干货如下:

1. 当前商家对平台的核心需求:达播需要平台提供新品、新品牌扶持政策,帮助自己打造差异化货盘,建立竞争壁垒;品牌商家希望平台流量向高质量直播间倾斜,匹配行业品质化转型的方向,让优质玩家获得更多曝光。

2. 已经验证的有效运营方法:淘系的实践显示,推行品质直播战略,扶持新品新品牌,开放AI工具覆盖主播,给主播提效,同时将流量向高质量直播间倾斜,可以有效带动转型后的头部达播实现稳定增长,目前淘系AI工具已经覆盖60万主播,主播人效提升20%,该模式值得同行参考。

3. 生态建设方向:要规避过度依赖超头流量的风险,引导商家做达播店播互补布局,淘汰只靠卷低价博流量的劣质玩家,招商侧侧重吸引重视产品品质的达播和品牌入场,推动平台整体生态向品质深耕升级,提升全平台用户信任。

本文梳理了直播电商行业最新变化,提出了新的行业发展逻辑,对直播电商产业研究有较高参考价值,干货如下:

1. 产业最新动向:当前达播进入洗牌调整期,行业唱衰达播背景下,85%头部美妆品牌缩减达播推广预算,多数品牌加速布局店播,超头达人生态也进入重构阶段,旧的高坑位费+低价达播模式已经无法跑通,整个行业正在从流量投机向品质深耕完成价值重构,这是直播电商走向成熟的标志性事件。

2. 新商业模式总结:文章提出达播未来的转型方向是做超级商超,核心是打造货盘稀缺性、推荐精准度、用户信任感三个核心能力,同时明确达播和店播并非此消彼长的零和博弈,而是品牌增长的互补双引擎,达播负责曝光破圈,店播负责用户沉淀复购,二者咬合形成品牌增长飞轮。

3. 研究启示:直播电商的形态演化最终回归生意本质,只有真正尊重产品、敬畏用户、坚守品质的玩家才能长期生存,这种新的产业格局为研究直播电商商业模式演化提供了全新的鲜活样本。

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Quick Summary

This article answers the pressing question of whether influencer-led livestream e-commerce is approaching its end. Its core conclusion is that influencer livestreaming will not disappear; instead, it will undergo a value repositioning and form a complementary relationship with the fast-growing store-owned livestreaming. Key takeaways are as follows:

1. Current industry landscape: After the end of the traffic dividend, the traditional influencer livestreaming model has become unsustainable. 85% of China's top 20 beauty brands have cut their influencer marketing budgets. Blue Moon, for example, dissolved its influencer livestream team and shifted to in-house store streaming after sustaining heavy losses from over-reliance on influencer partnerships. The top influencer ecosystem is also entering a period of adjustment.

2. Future transformation: Influencer livestreaming will evolve into a "supermarket-style" model, where its core competitiveness shifts from low-price hype to curation and trust endorsement. Like retailers Sam's Club and Pàngdōnglái, influencers will curate high-quality products for consumers, eliminating the need for time-consuming price comparisons and greatly reducing the risk of bad purchases.

3. Clear division of labor: Influencer livestreaming will focus on driving exposure for new product launches, while store-owned livestreaming will handle daily customer service and repeat purchases. Both models will ultimately return to the core business principle of earning consumers' trust.

This article outlines a clear strategic direction for brands looking to build their presence in livestream e-commerce, and clarifies the latest consumer trends and division of labor in the industry. Key insights are as follows:

1. Industry trends and risks: As traffic costs rise and consumers become more rational shoppers, the traditional influencer model of high slotting fees plus across-the-board minimum prices traps brands in a cycle of high exposure but low profit and poor customer retention. Over-reliance on influencer livestreaming significantly erodes margins, a problem best exemplified by Blue Moon, which burned through RMB 10 billion in marketing costs over two years before disbanding its influencer team. Currently, 85% of China's top beauty brands have already cut their influencer marketing budgets.

2. Channel layout recommendations: Brands should not pit influencer livestreaming against store-owned livestreaming; the two are complementary dual growth engines. Store-owned livestreaming drives daily user penetration and repeat customer retention, helping brands retain pricing power and own their user assets, while influencer livestreaming excels at helping new products break through and gain mass exposure, making it an ideal launchpad for new offerings.

3. Partnership guidance: Brands can partner with top influencers that have already completed their supermarket-style transformation, leveraging the influencer's trust endorsement to achieve cold-start breakthroughs for new products and reduce the uncertainty of new brand marketing.

This article breaks down the current industry risks, opportunities and strategic directions for sellers engaged in livestream e-commerce. Key takeaways are as follows:

1. Risk warning: The traditional influencer model is no longer viable. Low-quality influencer operations that rely solely on price wars and traffic stunts will be phased out. Sellers that over-rely on top influencers often end up losing money despite high sales volume, so they must adjust their channel strategies early to avoid repeating Blue Moon's mistakes.

2. Transformation path: To survive, influencer livestream operations must shift to the supermarket-style model by focusing on three core elements: First, build differentiation by leveraging platform support to develop new products and create a scarce product portfolio. For example, 80-90% of products in influencer Hu Ke's livestream room are new releases, and its apparel category grew 60% year-over-year during the 618 shopping festival. Second, use AI tools to improve product curation efficiency and free up hosts' time for content and product explanation. Third, implement fine-grained operations and build user trust through strict product screening standards.

3. Model selection: Adopt a complementary model of influencer and store-owned livestreaming: influencer streams drive breakout growth and exposure, while store streams deliver long-term user retention. Although building an in-house store stream is slow and costly in the early stage, it will become a stable source of profit once established.

This article outlines changing product demand and new business opportunities for factories that supply livestream e-commerce, and shares insights for digital transformation. Key takeaways are as follows:

1. New requirements for product design and manufacturing: After influencer livestreaming completes its supermarket-style transformation, its core competitiveness lies in differentiated product portfolios, so demand for new and niche offerings, as well as higher product quality, has risen sharply. Factories can adjust their R&D and design strategies to focus on developing differentiated new products and refining quality to match the needs of influencer product portfolios, opening up more partnership opportunities.

2. New business opportunities: Many new products and new brands currently lack traffic access for cold starts, while transformed top influencers need differentiated product portfolios. Factories can leverage their production capacity to take on OEM orders for new brands, or launch their own differentiated new products, and partner with top influencers to gain exposure, break into the market, and open up new sales channels.

3. Insights for digital transformation: The influencer livestream industry already uses AI tools to improve product curation and operational efficiency, significantly cutting labor and time costs. Factories can also adopt digital tools to capture changing market demand faster and improve overall operational efficiency.

This article outlines the latest development trends in livestream e-commerce, clarifies core pain points for industry players, and maps out business directions for service providers. Key insights are as follows:

1. New industry trends: Livestream e-commerce has shifted from traffic chasing to quality-focused operations. Influencer livestreaming is undergoing a supermarket-style transformation, while store-owned livestreaming is growing rapidly. The complementary dual-engine model of influencer and store streaming is now an industry consensus, and demand for refined operations, digital tools and quality services has risen sharply, creating clear growth opportunities in the sector.

2. Core customer pain points: For influencer operators, the old model is unsustainable, and they lack mature methods to improve product curation efficiency, build differentiated product portfolios, and earn user trust. For brands, the return on investment in influencer livestreaming continues to fall, while building a full-stack in-house store livestream operation is complex, time-consuming and costly, leaving brands in need of professional third-party support.

3. Business development directions: Service providers can offer AI-powered product curation tools and refined operation services for influencers, helping them build rigorous product screening systems and create high-quality livestream scenarios. For brands, they can offer full-stack store livestream setup, team training, and influencer resource matching services to accurately meet market demand.

This article provides reference insights for livestream platforms on operations, ecosystem building and merchant recruitment. Key takeaways are as follows:

1. Current core merchant demands from platforms: Influencer operators need platforms to introduce support policies for new products and new brands to help them build differentiated product portfolios and competitive moats. Brand owners expect platforms to redirect traffic to high-quality livestream rooms, aligning with the industry's shift to quality-focused transformation and giving top players more exposure.

2. Proven effective operational practices: Taobao's experience shows that implementing a quality livestream strategy, supporting new products and new brands, opening up AI tools to stream hosts to improve efficiency, and redirecting traffic to high-quality livestream rooms can effectively drive stable growth for transformed top influencers. Currently, Taobao's AI tools cover 600,000 stream hosts and have increased host productivity by 20%, making this model a valuable reference for peer platforms.

3. Ecosystem building directions: Platforms should mitigate the risk of over-reliance on mega-influencer traffic, guide merchants to adopt a complementary layout of influencer and store-owned livestreaming, weed out low-quality players that rely solely on price wars and traffic stunts, and prioritize recruiting quality-focused influencers and brands in merchant recruitment. This will push the overall platform ecosystem to upgrade toward quality-focused operations and improve user trust across the platform.

This article sorts out the latest changes in the livestream e-commerce industry and proposes a new industry development logic, offering high reference value for industrial research on livestream e-commerce. Key insights are as follows:

1. Latest industrial developments: Influencer livestreaming is currently going through a period of restructuring and consolidation. Amid widespread narrative that influencer livestreaming is declining, 85% of China's top beauty brands have cut influencer marketing budgets, and most brands are accelerating their shift to store-owned livestreaming. The ecosystem for mega-influencers is also being restructured. The old model of high slotting fees plus low-price promotions is no longer viable, and the entire industry is undergoing value reconstruction from traffic speculation to quality-focused operations, a hallmark of livestream e-commerce's march toward maturity.

2. New business model summary: The article argues that the future transformation direction for influencer livestreaming is to become a "supermarket-style" operation, centered on building three core capabilities: product portfolio scarcity, recommendation accuracy, and user trust. It also clarifies that influencer and store-owned livestreaming are not a zero-sum game, but complementary dual engines for brand growth: influencer livestreaming drives exposure and breakthroughs, while store-owned livestreaming handles user retention and repeat purchases, interlocking to form a brand growth flywheel.

3. Research implications: The morphological evolution of livestream e-commerce ultimately returns to the fundamental nature of business: only players that truly respect products, value users and uphold quality can survive long-term. This new industrial landscape provides a fresh, up-to-date case study for research on the business model evolution of livestream e-commerce.

Disclaimer: The "Quick Summary" content is entirely generated by AI. Please exercise discretion when interpreting the information. For issues or corrections, please email run@ebrun.com .

I am a Brand Seller Factory Service Provider Marketplace Seller Researcher Read it again.

达播洗牌,店播崛起,不是此消彼长,而是各司其职。

原创?新熵 新消费组

作者丨栀子 编辑丨九黎

2026年,达人直播真的将走向末路?

头部平台美妆TOP20品牌

“流量越来越贵,品牌用不起达播了”

“达人直播越来越难了”

行业唱衰声层出不穷,但并非空穴来风。据第三方数据显示:2026年Q1季度,头部平台美妆TOP20品牌中,85%的品牌都在缩减达人推广预算。韩束、珀莱雅、自然堂、丸美……这些曾靠明星达人带货吃尽红利的品牌,如今不约而同地踩下了刹车。

转身最决绝的当属蓝月亮,它曾是达人直播间最豪横的玩家,在广东夫妇专场曾创下7500万-1.2亿GMV战绩,然后光鲜背后却是单场投流费超4000万,外加送5000台苹果手机引流的惨烈代价。卖得越多,亏得越狠,在两年烧掉上百亿营销费的重压下,高度依赖直播带货的蓝月亮,最终彻底解散达播团队,转而全力搭建自播矩阵。

与此同时,超头生态也在重构:与辉同行频受舆论牵制,辛巴几乎隐退幕后,初代四大弟子也相继解约退出直播行业......达人生态进入调整期,品牌加速店播布局,达人直播究竟是走向末路,还是将迎来价值重估?直播带货的下一站在哪?

新熵采访了多位业内资深人士,试图借618大促复盘之际,给出一份真实答卷。

头部达播的未来式:变身“超级商超”

不可否认的是,在流量红利见顶、监管政策收紧、消费者理性回归等多重合力下,曾被视为“起量密码”的达播带货,旧模式已经跑不通了。

以前,品牌们挤破头也要上的超头直播间,依靠“高坑位费+全网最低价”换取高流水,最终却深陷高曝光、低利润、难复购的困局。如今在“去中心化”的大趋势下,品牌方开始集体算账:与其烧钱投流,只换来一次性曝光和销售,不如通过自播将定价权、话语权和用户资产牢牢攥在自己手中。

正如某潮牌电商负责人所言:“店播是每个品牌的必经之路,未来达播的市场占比将不足20%,甚至更低。”

如今无论哪个平台都是店播高增,但这并不意味着达播会走向坟墓,相反,一场残酷而必要的价值重估正在进行。从“GMV神坛”退居为电商生态中的常态一环,达播的价值定位也将发生根本性转变:它不再是唯一的爆发场,而是演化为一个“超级商超”。

这种商超化,并非指SKU的无限扩充,而是指信任背书意义上的质变。在电商行业极度分散、注意力成为最昂贵资源的当下,消费者的核心痛点不再是“哪里买”,而是“买哪个才靠谱”。所以未来的头部达播的核心竞争力,不再是叫卖能力,而是“首席选品官”的判断力与背书能力。

胡可直播间负责人此前分享的内容也印证了这一观点,“未来的头部达播,必将走向Costco化、山姆化、胖东来化。消费者在直播间驻足,就像逛线下山姆,无需费脑比价,仅凭对‘货架精选’的信任,就能实现闭眼入、不踩雷。不靠低价轰炸,也不靠冲动消费,而是靠选品力、服务力和信任力构建护城河。”

正如当年电商兴起冲击线下,很多人预言商超将死,结果反倒跑出了胖东来这样的优质零售标杆,直播行业的重新洗牌也在加速淘汰那些仅靠卷低价、博流量的劣质玩家,未来能存活下来的达播,一定是像零售巨头那样,依靠优质的选品、极致的信任背书与贴心的服务,在存量市场中占据一席之地。

达播“商超化”的三张牌:稀缺、精准、信任

但达播该如何实现这个商超化呢?

要想打造Costco、山姆、胖东来那样的“超级商超”,就必须具备三个硬指标:货盘的稀缺性、推荐的精准度、品质的信任感。而单靠一个达播团队,如何达成系统性能力跃升?

此次618淘系头部达播还在稳定增长,恰好给出了有效实践。

依托平台,打造“人无我有”稀缺性

想要避开同质化竞争,不少头部达播选择深挖新品、新品类来打造货盘差异化。胡可直播间便是典型:618大促上新占比达30%,而日常新品占比能高达80%-90%。

相关负责人道出了背后的逻辑:“用有节奏、有计划的上新,让消费者持续保持期待感与新鲜感,依托达人与粉丝之间沉淀的信任资产,很多新品能快速实现爆发式破圈。这种上新即引爆的确定性,也让直播间成为不少成熟品牌的新品首发阵地。”

据悉,这种差异化策略,让胡可直播间在618期间整体实现双位数增长,其中大快消类同比增长约15%,服饰增长达60%,家电生活增长40%。

而这背后,离不开淘宝品质直播的战略支撑,平台在加码优质新品和新品牌扶持,让缺乏用户积累、口碑沉淀的新品和新品牌得以站在同一起跑线上,凭产品力公平竞争。而达播累积的影响力和信任背书,正好给新品牌冷启动提供最佳流量入口。

依托AI,实现“懂你所想”精准度

山姆和Costco的核心是“选品力”,而达播正在用AI复刻这一能力。

据今年4月淘宝直播盛典公开的信息,AI工具已覆盖淘系60万主播,主播人效提升20%。在选品环节,变化是具体的:主播只需要说一句"我明天要去做一场护肤类目的直播",AI收到指令后会先收集数据,分析护肤类目趋势变化,再分析主播的用户数据,接着制定策略,把整场直播货盘搭建出来,并按照主播的口吻生成所有商品手卡,主播确认后就能立刻开播。

过去筹备这样一场直播,需要协调多个团队,安排选品、手卡、素材、营销等众多事项,通常要3天。现在用AI助手,1小时就能完成,提效约20倍。

这种"AI选品+人工确认"的模式,本质上是把专业选品团队的数据分析能力,装进了每一个达播团队里。主播的精力从"选什么"的纠结中释放出来,可以更专注于"怎么讲"——这恰好是达播商超化最需要的能力分工。

精细运营,建立“值得信赖”品质感

胖东来靠极致服务、品质保障建立消费信任,达播的商超化,也必将摒弃传统表演式叫卖,转向以严苛选品+质感呈现构建“信任场域”。比如,香菇来了会对选品设立多道筛选机制:资质审查、样品比对、功效试用,层层过关才获上播资格。“今年618平台流量明显向高质量直播间倾斜,所以,品质保障是开播前提。”其商务负责人表示。

胡可团队则按季度翻新直播间,通过感官刺激带来持续新鲜感。与佳能中国合作,用电影美学重构直播场景,用真实展品替代美颜滤镜,以耐心讲解替代“123上链接”。正是这种对“品质场域”的细节打磨,不仅让消费者感受到了真诚用心,也为其赢得了近3000家品牌的长期合作。

品牌增长的双引擎:达播与店播互补

目前来看,达播依然承担着新品推广、人群破圈、大促冲量等“爆发式增长”功能,而店播虽然势头强劲,但其搭建之路堪称“爬雪山过草地”。

某护肤品创始人直言搭建店播现实很骨感:“最大的困难就是慢,需要抠的细节极多。”搭建一套完整的自播体系,需死磕账号定位、团队培训、话术打磨、数据检测与复盘等全链路环节,每一处细节都要消耗实在的真金白银与时间成本。

换言之,店播是一门先慢后快的生意。只有熬过早前爬坡期、覆盖固定成本之后,它才能变成品牌真正的“印钞机”。

但店播的“慢”与达播的“快”,并非一场你死我活的零和博弈,它们是品牌增长飞轮上咬合的两个齿轮——各自承担不同的角色,是互为补充的商业搭档。

店播解决的是日常渗透与复购沉淀,负责把每一次触达转化为用户资产;达播解决的是新品破圈与曝光声量,它像品牌定期投放的“营销核弹”。两者并非此消彼长,而是各司其职。

达播洗牌,店播崛起,可以看作直播电商的成年礼,是一次从流量投机到品质深耕的价值重构。

在这场进化中,达播与店播各自找到了新的坐标:一个负责让人看见,一个负责让人留下;一个用信任引爆初次购买,一个用服务锁定长期复购。形态不同,但终究要回归生意本质:谁能让用户闭眼入、放心购,谁就能赢得生存的机会。

无论直播形态如何演变,那些真正尊重产品、敬畏用户、愿意坚守品质的玩家,终将在新的商业秩序中找到属于自己的位置。

注:文/新熵-新消费组,文章来源:新熵(公众号ID:baoliaohui),本文为作者独立观点,不代表亿邦动力立场。

文章来源:新熵

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