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一季度利润增长超20倍、股价两年上涨超700% 存储龙头江波龙实控人身家超930亿元

段楠楠 2026-06-05 09:13
段楠楠 2026/06/05 09:13

邦小白快读

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本文核心介绍了AI浪潮下国内存储龙头江波龙的业绩爆发、股价表现及相关资本动作,核心干货信息如下:

1. AI带动全球存储芯片紧缺涨价,江波龙踩中行业周期,2026年一季度扣非净利润近40亿元,同比暴增20倍,股价两年累计上涨超700%,市值超2400亿元,实控人蔡华波身家超930亿元。

2. 江波龙从深圳华强北1平方米柜台起家,2004年引入技术合伙人后开始自主研发,2017年收购美光旗下品牌打开消费级市场,2023年起提前加大存储原材料和成品囤货,价格上涨后囤货成为利润放大器,目前手握近180亿元存货,短期内业绩仍有望持续增长。

3. 需要警惕相关风险:实控人、高管及核心股东已经累计套现超30亿元,公司在股价高位推出37亿元定增融资,能否获得投资者认购存疑,且存储属于强周期行业,后续存在价格下跌带来存货减值的风险。

AI爆发给存储行业带来全新发展机遇,江波龙的发展路径对存储类品牌商有多维度参考价值,核心干货总结如下:

1. 行业趋势层面:AI发展带动HBM等高端存储需求指数级增长,国际大厂转产高端存储导致传统存储供需失衡,价格持续暴涨,256G DDR5内存条两年涨幅超300%,预计2026年上半年还会上涨40%-70%,供不应求局面短期将持续,企业级存储是当前增速最快、毛利率最高的核心赛道。

2. 经营策略层面:可以参考江波龙提前囤货锁定成本、应对产业链断供风险的做法,在行业周期上行阶段提前布局,抓住涨价红利,江波龙收购国际成熟品牌打开消费级市场的路径,也适合想要拓展市场的品牌参考。

3. 风险提示层面:存储属于强周期行业,要警惕价格回落带来的存货减值风险,需要合理把握囤货节奏,同时要抓住AI风口布局高端存储研发,巩固自身竞争力。

AI带动存储行业进入超级增长周期,存储相关卖家可从中挖掘机会,同时需要警惕相关风险,核心干货总结如下:

1. 市场机会层面:AI发展带动全品类存储产品价格持续上涨,需求旺盛,目前短期供不应求的局面还将持续,行业整体利润空间大幅提升,尤其是服务器、AI终端相关的企业级存储产品,增速快毛利率高,是当前最核心的增长赛道,进入门槛合适的卖家可优先布局。

2. 可借鉴操作经验:江波龙从2023年行业低谷期就开始提前加大囤货,锁定了低成本的原材料和产能,在价格上涨后获得了超额利润,这种提前布局应对周期的做法,非常适合存储品类卖家参考。

3. 风险提示层面:存储行业属于强周期行业,价格波动大,类似此前的碳酸锂、光伏硅料,当前行业已经处于价格高位,囤货过多会面临存货减值的风险,需要把握好囤货节奏,避免在价格高点过度备货,同时要关注行业供需变化及时调整库存。

AI爆发给存储产业链工厂带来明确商业机会,也对生产布局提出新要求,核心干货总结如下:

1. 产品生产设计需求变化:AI发展带动高端存储产品需求爆发,HBM、企业级SSD、高端内存条等产品需求呈指数级增长,存储生产企业需要及时调整产能结构,向AI相关高端存储产品倾斜,顺应市场需求变化。

2. 商业机会层面:国际存储大厂纷纷削减传统存储产能、转向高端存储生产,导致传统存储市场供需失衡,价格持续上涨,提前布局备货的工厂都获得了超额利润,当前国内存储市场缺口依然存在,工厂加大符合AI需求的产能布局依然有较大获利空间。

3. 发展启示层面:存储工厂需要提前把控核心生产环节,江波龙通过定增布局高端封测项目,提升自主封测比例,既降低了委外加工成本,也提升了交付效率和供应链安全,这种做法值得国内存储工厂参考,同时也要把握行业周期,做好备货节奏管理,应对价格波动风险。

当前存储行业进入AI驱动的新增长周期,产业链服务商可把握新的行业需求,挖掘业务机会,核心干货总结如下:

1. 行业发展趋势:AI技术落地带动全球存储芯片紧缺,全品类存储产品价格持续暴涨,行业进入超级增长周期,高端AI相关存储产品成为增长核心,机构预测2026年上半年存储价格还将上涨40%-70%,短期需求仍将保持旺盛,行业整体扩张动能充足。

2. 核心客户痛点:当前存储行业企业都在加大备货力度,纷纷扩产布局AI高端存储,对资金的需求非常旺盛,不少企业在手资金充足依然需要通过定增募资补流来支撑囤货和扩产,此外存储企业提升自主封测、研发高端产品的过程中,也需要相关生产配套、技术研发服务支持。

3. 业务机会方向:服务商可以针对存储企业备货扩产的资金需求,推出适配的金融服务、供应链融资服务,针对企业布局高端存储研发、封测产能的需求,提供相关技术服务、生产配套服务,依托行业增长红利拓展自身业务。

存储行业的爆发式增长给各类平台带来新机会,也需要关注相关风险做好管理,核心干货总结如下:

1. 行业对平台的需求:AI风口下存储企业业绩爆发,普遍有较强的资本运作需求,不少头部企业会通过定增等方式募资扩产,加码AI相关业务布局,需要平台提供融资审核、对接投资者等相关服务支持,行业增长也给平台带来了更多优质项目资源。

2. 运营管理需要关注的问题:当前存储行业处于价格高位,头部存储企业普遍出现重要股东、高管大规模减持套现的情况,部分企业在股东高位减持的同时推出定增融资补流,不仅存在投资者认购不足的风险,也容易引发市场对资本运作合理性的质疑。

3. 风险规避方向:平台需要加强对定增等融资项目的合理性审核,关注高位减持叠加融资的合规性,同时要向投资者提示行业周期风险,存储属于强周期行业,当前价格暴涨后后续存在下跌引发存货减值的风险,需要做好投资者风险提示,维护平台正常秩序。

AI驱动下存储行业出现了新的发展动向,也涌现出不少值得研究的新问题,对产业研究有重要参考价值,核心干货总结如下:

1. 产业新动向:AI技术发展重构了全球存储行业的供需格局,高端存储需求爆发推动全球存储大厂调整产能结构,带动传统存储产品价格暴涨,国内存储企业借助行业周期实现了业绩和市值的爆发式增长,行业进入全新发展阶段,国内存储企业已经逐步在细分赛道建立竞争优势。

2. 值得研究的新问题:本次江波龙案例中,出现了企业业绩爆发、核心股东高管大规模高位减持,同时推出定增融资补充流动资金的情况,这种资本运作的合理性,以及强周期行业中企业囤货策略的边界问题,都值得深入研究,此外行业周期下如何平衡企业发展与中小投资者利益,也是重要的研究议题。

3. 启示层面:强周期行业发展中,需要政策引导企业合理备货,防范存货大幅减值引发的行业系统性风险,同时需要规范企业高位减持叠加融资的资本运作行为,完善相关监管规则,保护中小投资者的合法权益。

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Quick Summary

This article centers on the performance boom, stock performance and capital moves of domestic storage leading player Longsys amid the AI wave, with key takeaways as follows:

1. AI has driven a global shortage and price hike of memory chips, and Longsys has caught the upswing of the industry cycle. In Q1 2026, the company’s non-GAAP net profit is nearly 4 billion yuan, a 20-fold surge year-on-year. Its stock price has jumped more than 700% cumulatively in two years, pushing its market capitalization above 240 billion yuan, and the net worth of controlling shareholder Cai Huabo exceeds 93 billion yuan.

2. Longsys started as a 1-square-meter counter in Shenzhen’s Huaqiangbei. It began independent R&D after bringing in technical partners in 2004, acquired a Micron-owned brand to access the consumer market in 2017, and started increasing its stockpiles of raw materials and finished products from 2023 onward. The subsequent price surge turned these inventories into a major profit driver. Longsys now holds nearly 18 billion yuan in inventory, leaving it well-positioned for continued near-term growth.

3. Key risks to note: The controlling shareholder, senior executives and core shareholders have cashed out more than 3 billion yuan in total, and the company launched a 3.7 billion yuan private placement at its current elevated stock price, where investor appetite remains uncertain. Furthermore, storage is a highly cyclical industry, and future price drops could trigger inventory impairment losses.

The AI boom has opened unprecedented new growth opportunities for the storage industry, and Longsys’ development path offers multi-dimensional insights for storage brand players. Key takeaways are summarized below:

1. Industry trend: AI has driven exponential growth in demand for high-end storage products such as HBM. As international giants shift production to high-end storage, the supply-demand balance for traditional storage has been disrupted, pushing prices sharply higher. A 256G DDR5 memory module has risen more than 300% in price over two years, with forecasts of an additional 40%-70% gain in H1 2026. The supply shortage is expected to persist in the near term, and enterprise storage is currently the core growth segment with the fastest expansion and highest gross margins.

2. Operational strategy: Brands can draw on Longsys’ strategy of pre-stocking inventory to lock in costs and mitigate supply chain disruption risks, positioning early to capture upside from price hikes during an industry upcycle. Longsys’ approach of acquiring an established international brand to enter the consumer market is also a useful reference for brands seeking market expansion.

3. Risk warning: Storage is a highly cyclical industry. Brands should remain alert to inventory impairment risks from price corrections, manage stockpiling pace carefully, and leverage the AI boom to invest in high-end storage R&D to strengthen long-term competitiveness.

AI has pushed the storage industry into a super growth cycle, creating opportunities for storage-related sellers while carrying notable risks. Key takeaways are summarized below:

1. Market opportunities: AI has driven sustained price increases and strong demand across all storage categories, and the near-term supply shortage is expected to continue. Industry-wide profit margins have expanded sharply, particularly for enterprise storage products for servers and AI terminals — this segment is the core growth track today with fast expansion and high gross margins, and sellers with feasible entry barriers should prioritize it.

2. Actionable insights: Longsys began ramping up stockpiles during the 2023 industry downturn, locking in low-cost raw materials and production capacity, and reaped outsized profits when prices rose. This approach of positioning early ahead of a cycle shift is highly valuable for storage category sellers.

3. Risk warning: The storage industry is highly cyclical with large price swings, similar to lithium carbonate and photovoltaic polysilicon in previous cycles. The sector is already at elevated price levels today, and overstocking exposes sellers to major inventory impairment risks. Sellers must manage inventory pace carefully, avoid overstocking at price peaks, and adjust inventory levels promptly in response to shifting supply and demand dynamics.

The AI boom has created clear business opportunities for factories across the storage supply chain, while also requiring adjustments to production layouts. Key takeaways are summarized below:

1. Shifts in product and design demand: AI has driven a boom in demand for high-end storage products, with exponential growth in demand for HBM, enterprise-grade SSDs and high-end memory modules. Storage manufacturers need to adjust their capacity structure promptly, shifting production toward AI-related high-end products to align with shifting market demand.

2. Business opportunities: Leading international storage players are cutting traditional storage capacity to reorient toward high-end production, creating a supply-demand imbalance and sustained price increases in the traditional storage market. Factories that positioned early with inventory have already earned outsized profits. There is still a notable supply gap in the domestic market, so expanding capacity for AI-aligned products still offers significant upside for factories.

3. Development takeaways: Storage factories should take control of core production links early. Longsys is using proceeds from its private placement to build out advanced packaging and testing capacity, increasing in-house packaging rates to cut outsourcing costs, improve delivery efficiency and strengthen supply chain security. This model is a valuable reference for domestic storage factories. Factories should also navigate industry cycles and manage inventory pace to mitigate risks from price volatility.

The storage industry is now in an AI-driven new growth cycle, allowing industrial chain service providers to tap evolving demand and unlock new business opportunities. Key takeaways are summarized below:

1. Industry development trend: AI adoption has created a global memory chip shortage, pushing up prices across all storage product categories and pushing the industry into a super growth cycle, with AI-related high-end storage as the core growth engine. Industry forecasts project storage prices will rise another 40%-70% in H1 2026, with strong near-term demand and sufficient momentum for industry-wide expansion.

2. Core pain points for clients: Storage companies are currently ramping up inventory and expanding capacity for AI-related high-end storage, leading to very strong demand for capital. Many companies still pursue private placements to replenish working capital to fund stockpiling and expansion even with healthy cash on hand. Additionally, as storage companies build in-house packaging and testing capacity and develop high-end products, they also need support for production-related supporting services and R&D services.

3. Business opportunity directions: Service providers can develop tailored financial and supply chain financing products to meet the capital needs of storage firms for inventory building and capacity expansion. They can also provide relevant technical services and production supporting services to meet the demand of enterprises building out high-end storage R&D and packaging and testing capacity, expanding their own business by tapping into the industry’s growth dividend.

The explosive growth of the storage industry has created new opportunities for all types of platforms, while requiring risk-aware operational adjustments. Key takeaways are summarized below:

1. Industry demand for platforms: Amid the AI-driven boom, storage companies are reporting surging performance and have strong demand for capital operations. Many leading players are raising funds via private placements to expand capacity and scale up AI-related business, requiring platforms to provide services including financing review and investor connection. Industry growth has also brought more high-quality project resources to platforms.

2. Key operational considerations: With storage prices at current elevated levels, leading storage companies have seen large-scale sell-offs by major shareholders and senior executives. Some firms have launched private placements to replenish working capital right after major shareholders cashed out at high prices, which not only carries the risk of under-subscription, but also easily triggers market questions over the legitimacy of their capital operations.

3. Risk mitigation directions: Platforms should strengthen the due diligence review of private placements and other financing projects, scrutinize the compliance of combining high-position issuance with insider selling, and clearly disclose industry cycle risks to investors. Storage is a highly cyclical industry, and the current price surge will likely be followed by declines that trigger inventory impairment, so platforms must communicate these risks clearly to maintain orderly market operations.

The AI-driven storage industry has seen new development trends and emerging research questions, offering valuable reference for industrial research. Key takeaways are summarized below:

1. New industry trends: AI development has reshaped the supply-demand landscape of the global storage industry. The boom in high-end storage demand has pushed global storage giants to adjust their capacity structure, driving sharp price increases for traditional storage products. Domestic storage players have achieved explosive growth in performance and market capitalization riding the industry cycle, entering a brand-new development stage, and have gradually built competitive advantages in niche segments.

2. New research questions: The Longsys case, where the company reported explosive performance while core shareholders and senior executives cashed out heavily at high prices and launched a private placement to replenish working capital, raises a number of questions worthy of in-depth research: the legitimacy of this combined capital operation, and the appropriate boundary for inventory stocking strategies in highly cyclical industries. How to balance corporate development and the interests of minority investors during industry cycles is also an important research topic.

3. Policy and research takeaways: For the development of highly cyclical industries, policy guidance is needed to encourage reasonable inventory management and prevent systemic industry risks triggered by large-scale inventory impairment. Regulatory rules should also be improved to govern the practice of combining large insider selling at high prices with new financing, to protect the legitimate rights and interests of minority investors.

Disclaimer: The "Quick Summary" content is entirely generated by AI. Please exercise discretion when interpreting the information. For issues or corrections, please email run@ebrun.com .

I am a Brand Seller Factory Service Provider Marketplace Seller Researcher Read it again.

AI带动下,全球存储芯片极其紧缺,各类存储产品价格暴涨,存储企业业绩也因此暴涨。作为国内“存储芯片三小龙”的江波龙也不例外,自2025年下半年其业绩开始爆发。

2026年一季度,公司单季度扣非后净利润近40亿元,2025年同期江波龙甚至还在亏损当中。

在利润爆发的背景下,江波龙股价持续大涨,2025年9月至今公司股价累计涨幅超500%。在股价大幅上涨的背景下,江波实控人控制的持股平台及众多高管纷纷减持公司股份,累计套现金额超30亿元。

在实控人及高管减持的同时,江波龙计划定增募资37亿元,加码AI高端存储芯片。在股价持续大涨后,江波龙能否获得投资者的认购?

01 存货产品价格暴涨,一季度利润暴增20倍

当AI需要处理的数据愈发复杂,传统的内存已经无法满足顶级AI芯片的需求。

在此背景下,HBM(高带宽内存)是一种先进的3D堆叠存储芯片,它可以直接封测在GPU芯片旁边,可提供极高的带宽,让AI能够瞬间处理庞大的参数矩阵。

随着AI的持续爆发,HBM芯片需求呈指数级上升。为了抓住AI带来的机遇,三星、SK海力士等国际大厂大幅削减了传统存储产品的产能,导致市场供需出现失衡,存储产品价格因此大幅飙升,存储厂商均挣得盆满钵满。

从业务来看,江波龙100%的收入来源于存储产品,公司内存产品主要有嵌入式内存、固态硬盘(SSD)、内存条、移动存储及车规级存储等,旗下产品应用覆盖智能手机、可穿戴设备、AI终端、服务器、数据中心等各个领域。

在AI驱动下,无论是内存条还是企业级固态硬盘,价格都出现了明显上涨。

以256G的DDR5内存条为例,2024年6月的约1.2万-1.5万元/根,2026年1月,该产品价格上升至4.5万-5万元/根,累计涨幅超300%。据Counterpoint预测2026年Q1-Q2价格还将继续上涨40%-70%,短期内供不应求局面将持续。

从2023年开始,为了锁定成本及应对产业链断供风险,江波龙便开始加大囤货。其囤积的存货主要是存储晶圆、主控芯片为主的原材料以及完成生产的SSD固态硬盘、内存条、嵌入式内存等。

数据显示,2022年底江波龙存货余额为37.44亿元,2023年底及2024年底分别为58.93亿元、78.33亿元,2025年6月30日公司存货余额进一步增长至80.76亿元。

由于存货规模庞大,在2025年四季度存储产品价格爆发式上涨时,江波龙及时扩大生产及销售规模,营收和利润大幅上升。

江波龙年报显示,2025年下半年公司实现营业收入为125.71亿元,扣非后净利润为12.57亿元,而2025年上半年公司扣非后净利润仅为3221万元。

2025年四季度,江波龙进一步加大了原材料采购,导致2025年公司在归母净利润超14.23亿元的情形下,经营性现金流反而流出12.01亿元。

在加大采购的背景下,2025年底江波龙存货余额达116.8亿元,较2025年三季度末增加近30亿元。

2026年一季度,存储价格进一步上涨,江波龙营收和利润大爆发,实现营业收入99.09亿元,同比增长132.79%,实现扣非后净利润39.43亿元,同比暴增20倍。

值得注意的是,2026年一季度江波龙赚取的利润并未留存,而是用于进一步扩大囤货规模。截至2026年3月31日,公司存货余额高达179.6亿元。

鉴于目前各类存储产品价格依旧在涨,手握近180亿元存货的江波龙未来一段时间业绩将持续大增。

02 股价两年暴涨700%,实控人身家约930亿元

得益于公司利润爆发,加之投资者对存储产品企业的追捧,江波龙在资本市场表现极为出色。

2024年4月,公司股价最低跌至67.26元/股,截至6月4日,江波龙股价上涨至568.48元/股,两年多时间江波龙股价累计上涨700%,公司市值超2400亿元。

作为公司实控人,今年50岁的蔡华波持有江波龙1.62亿股,占公司股份比例为38.67%,其个人持股市值约930亿元。

而在创业之初,这位身家近900亿元的大佬拥有的只是深圳华强北的一个柜台。

上世纪90年代,在改革开放的浪潮下,作为我国经济特区的深圳飞速发展,华强北也成为众多南下创业者的淘金点。

起初,高中刚毕业的蔡华波在1平方米的柜台里做起了销售。很快蔡华波便注意到存储产品大有可为,因此其在1999年创办了江波龙。

创立之初,由于蔡华波不懂技术,只是简单做内存产品的倒买倒卖,因此公司经营上并没有太大的起色。

直到2004年懂技术的二股东李志雄加入了江波龙,才让公司开始自己研发存储产品。在李志雄带领下,江波龙陆陆续续推出了嵌入式芯片、固态硬盘等产品,凭此,江波龙经营规模持续扩大。

2017年,江波龙收购了国际存储巨头美光科技旗下品牌Lexar,走向了消费级存储芯片市场,公司业绩得以进一步提升。

2021年,由于存储产品价格上涨,江波龙营业收入及归母净利润创纪录的达到97.49亿元、10.13亿元。

在此背景下,江波龙也将目光投向了资本市场,最终公司也成功登陆创业板。

此后几年,在疫情及下游需求低迷影响下,存储产品价格经历了一段时间时间的下跌。江波龙也经历了一段时间的低迷,2023年公司扣非后净利润亏损8.82亿元。

但自2025年下半年存储产品需求开始爆发,价格爆发式的上涨,江波龙经营业绩及股价均爆发式上涨,市值更是突破2300亿元。

在股价大涨的背景下,公司核心股东及蔡华波控制的员工持股平台轮番减持。如公司核心技术人员、第二大股东李志雄2025年9月2026年5月已累计减持超746万股,套现金额达12.92亿元。由实控人控制的五大持股平台自2025年开始合计减持、转让公司1800万股,套现资金超30亿元。

除此之外,国家大基金也曾在2024年底至今合计减持超565万股,粗略计算国家大基金套现金额超2亿元。

03 拟定增投资AI存储器研发,手握41亿元,仍计划募资11亿元补流

在股价大涨及重要股东集中减持的背景下,江波龙还推出了巨额定增。2025年12月,江波龙公告计划定增不超过37亿元。

此前定增,江波龙计划投资9.3亿元用于面向AI高端存储器研发,12.8亿元投资半导体存储主控芯片项目研发,5.4亿元用于半导体存储高端封测项目建设,11亿元补充流动资金。

截至5月29日,江波龙定增已经获深交所审核通过,公司距离正式定增完成又进一步。

从项目投资来看,江波龙定增募投的项目主要是加码和巩固现有业务的竞争力,如耗资9.3亿元建设的面向AI高端存储器的产业化,主要聚焦服务器端企业级SSD和RDIMM内存条,以及端侧消费级SSD和DIMM内存条。

目前,企业级存储是公司目前增速最快、毛利率最高的业务板块,是本轮AI驱动下涨价的核心品种。此时定增扩产,能让江波龙更好的享受AI发展带来的红利。

而投资半导体存储高端封测建设,能让自主封测比例的提升,直接降低委外加工成本,提高交付效率和供应链安全。从企业发展角度而言,定增募资建设相关项目无可厚非。

但公司是否需要募资11亿元补充流动资金还值得商榷。2026年一季度,由于存储市场火爆,江波龙加大银行借款力度,截至2026年3月31日公司在手货币资金多达41.49亿元。

鉴于目前存储市场极其火爆,今明两年江波龙利润大概率有保证。在不疯狂囤货的背景下,公司将获得十分可观的经营性现金流。在此背景下,江波龙仍要募资补流的必要性也受到投资者的质疑。

毕竟由于股价持续上涨,股票积累的获利盘足够多。此时定增,对于想要参与定增的投资者而言并不友好。根据定增的相关规则,定增发行价格不低于定价基准日前二十个交易日均价的80%。

2026年至今,由于业绩劲爆,江波龙在资本市场持续受到投资者追捧,2026年至今公司股价累计上涨超85%。若日5月29日收盘股价作为基准日,江波龙定增发行底价约为430元/股,而在2026年初公司股价也仅为260元/股。

按照江波龙披露的定增预案,此次定增计划向不超过35名特定对象发行股票不超过1.26亿股,认购方式为全部现金认购,限售期6个月。

在股价涨幅如此之大的情形下,能否征集到众多的投资者认购还是未知之数。毕竟自2025年开始国家大基金及高管内部员工及二股东便开始大规模减持公司股份。

在存储超级周期下,2026年江波龙利润将极其劲爆,公司借助经营获得的资金进一步加大存储产品备货,随着备货后存储价格进一步上涨,提前囤积的存储产品便成了利润放大器,进一步提升公司利润。

需要注意的是,任何产品都有周期,如前几年的碳酸锂及光伏硅料。因此,如何把握好囤货节奏,避免后期因存储价格下跌带来存货减值,是江波龙管理层未来需要重点思考的问题之一。

注:文/段楠楠,文章来源:子弹财经,本文为作者独立观点,不代表亿邦动力立场。

文章来源:子弹财经

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