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北大光华研究报告:闪购渗透率提高对骑手收入带来正面影响 显著提升“有效工时比”

亿邦动力 2026-02-03 19:51
亿邦动力 2026/02/03 19:51

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报告显示外卖平台优惠券有效提升商户营收和骑手收入,小型商户受益显著。

1. 优惠券在半年内持续拉动消费,提升商户线上营收,但对大型商户线下无显著影响;小型商户则线上线下均增长,周线上营收增加1468元,线下增加164.8元,订单量线上增51单,线下增2单。

2. 骑手收入增长幅度大于单量增长,有效工时比提高,表明配送效率优化,日均在线时长微降,背单时长增。

3. 优惠券通过“广告效应”提升多场景消费活跃度,尤其在支付宝端服务类消费增长明显。

4. 报告建议推动良性市场竞争,以保障消费者、商户和骑手权益,促进长期稳定增长。

优惠券通过品牌曝光和消费趋势变化助力品牌营销。

1. 品牌渠道建设方面,优惠券提升线上流量曝光,形成“广告效应”,带动商户获客,尤其小型商户更易被看见,缓解获客挑战。

2. 消费趋势显示服务类消费增长突出,如餐饮美食和本地生活服务,高于耐用品,表明用户行为向多场景转移,黏性增强。

3. 品牌定价和价格竞争启示,平台补贴如“百亿补贴”活动可刺激消费扩容,但需关注良性竞争以避免负面影响。

4. 产品研发可参考小型商户增长案例,优化服务以吸引平台流量,实现线上线下协同。

外卖平台补贴提供增长机会和可学习点,需关注政策与风险。

1. 政策解读建议推动良性市场竞争秩序,以多目标协同治理体系保障权益,避免过度竞争风险。

2. 增长市场体现在优惠券拉动线上营收,小型商户周总体营收增1633元,订单量增53单,提示利用平台活动提升销售。

3. 消费需求变化显示服务类消费持续增长,机会提示可拓展餐饮和本地生活品类;事件应对措施包括优化服务质量以长期获客。

4. 风险提示补贴竞争可能引发社会关注,但正面影响如骑手收入增长和效率提升,可学习点在于数字化合作。

商户增长为工厂带来产品需求和电商合作启示。

1. 产品生产和设计需求方面,小型商户线上线下营收提升,表明订单量增加,可能带动上游生产需求,如餐饮和本地生活产品。

2. 商业机会体现在平台优惠券活动促进商户参与,工厂可合作拓展外卖渠道,利用数字化提升供应链效率。

3. 推进数字化和电商启示,报告显示优惠券缓解获客难,启示工厂通过平台合作实现曝光,学习小型商户案例优化生产响应。

4. 风险与机会提示,良性竞争建议可避免过度依赖补贴,但电商趋势提供稳定增长路径。

行业发展趋势和客户痛点解决方案揭示服务优化空间。

1. 行业发展趋势显示外卖平台渗透率提高,带动消费扩容和骑手效率提升,表明即时零售增长强劲。

2. 客户痛点如小型商户获客挑战,优惠券通过“广告效应”提供解决方案,缓解曝光难问题,提升营收。

3. 解决方案包括优化配送效率,骑手有效工时比提高,启示服务商开发工具减少空驶时间;新技术隐含在数据分析应用,如报告基于平台数据追踪效应。

4. 风险提示补贴竞争需关注骑手劳动权益,但正面影响如收入增长,可提供定制化服务支持。

平台最新做法和运营管理启示需平衡风险与机会。

1. 商业对平台需求和问题方面,优惠券活动提升商户参与,但小型商户需求更迫切,需优化招商策略吸引更多商户。

2. 平台的最新做法如“百亿补贴”活动,实证显示拉动消费持续半年,骑手收入增长且效率优化,有效工时比提高。

3. 运营管理启示包括减少骑手在线时长同时提升背单时长,学习效率优化模式;风向规避建议推动良性竞争,避免社会负面反响。

4. 机会提示平台可扩展至多场景如电商和支付宝生态,利用消费拉动效应提升市场份额。

产业新动向和政策建议提供研究启示与商业模式分析。

1. 产业新动向显示外卖补贴竞争影响3亿用户、千万商户和骑手,优惠券持续效应在半年内显著,带动服务消费溢出。

2. 新问题如骑手收入增长幅度大于单量,有效工时比提高,表明效率优化而非过度劳动;商业模式分析平台补贴培育新消费增长点。

3. 政策法规建议和启示强调以良性市场竞争为根本,打造多目标治理体系,保障各方权益;启示包括商户改善服务质量实现稳定增长。

4. 数据案例如5271个商户样本分析,小型商户异质性增长显著,提供实证研究基础。

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Quick Summary

A report shows that food delivery platform coupons effectively boost merchant revenue and rider income, with small merchants benefiting most significantly.

1. Coupons drove sustained consumption growth over six months, increasing merchants' online revenue but showing no significant impact on large merchants' offline sales. Small merchants saw gains both online and offline: weekly online revenue rose by ¥1,468, offline by ¥164.8, online orders increased by 51, and offline orders by 2.

2. Rider income growth outpaced order volume growth, with improved effective working time ratios indicating optimized delivery efficiency. Average daily online time slightly decreased, while order-carrying duration increased.

3. Coupons boosted multi-scenario consumption activity through an "advertising effect," with notable growth in service-related spending, especially on Alipay.

4. The report recommends fostering healthy market competition to protect consumer, merchant, and rider interests, ensuring long-term stable growth.

Coupons aid brand marketing by enhancing exposure and reflecting shifting consumption trends.

1. For brand channel building, coupons increase online traffic visibility, creating an "advertising effect" that helps merchants—especially small ones—gain customers and ease acquisition challenges.

2. Consumption trends highlight strong growth in service categories like dining and local lifestyle services, outpacing durable goods, indicating user behavior shifting toward multi-scenario engagement and increased loyalty.

3. Insights on pricing and competition suggest platform subsidies (e.g., "Billion-Dollar Subsidy" campaigns) can stimulate consumption expansion but require attention to healthy competition to avoid negative impacts.

4. Product development can draw from small merchant growth cases, optimizing services to attract platform traffic and achieve online-offline synergy.

Food delivery platform subsidies offer growth opportunities and learnings, with attention needed on policies and risks.

1. Policy interpretation advises promoting healthy market competition through a multi-objective governance system to protect rights and avoid excessive competition risks.

2. Growth markets show coupons boosting online revenue, with small merchants seeing a weekly total revenue increase of ¥1,633 and 53 additional orders, suggesting leveraging platform campaigns to drive sales.

3. Shifting consumer demand reveals sustained growth in service categories, highlighting opportunities in expanding food and local lifestyle offerings; response measures include optimizing service quality for long-term customer retention.

4. Risk alerts note subsidy competition may draw social scrutiny, but positive impacts like rider income growth and efficiency gains offer learnings in digital collaboration.

Merchant growth signals product demand and e-commerce collaboration insights for factories.

1. Production and design needs are indicated by small merchants' revenue increases online and offline, suggesting higher order volumes may drive upstream demand for products like food and local lifestyle items.

2. Business opportunities arise as platform coupon campaigns encourage merchant participation; factories can collaborate to expand delivery channels and enhance supply chain efficiency digitally.

3. Digital and e-commerce insights show coupons easing customer acquisition challenges, suggesting factories use platform partnerships for exposure and learn from small merchant cases to optimize production responsiveness.

4. Risks and opportunities highlight that healthy competition advice can prevent over-reliance on subsidies, but e-commerce trends offer a stable growth path.

Industry trends and client pain points reveal optimization areas for service providers.

1. Trends show rising food delivery platform penetration driving consumption growth and rider efficiency, indicating strong instant retail expansion.

2. Client pain points, like small merchants' acquisition challenges, are addressed by coupons' "advertising effect," boosting visibility and revenue.

3. Solutions include optimizing delivery efficiency, as improved rider effective working ratios suggest tools to reduce idle time; new tech potential lies in data analytics, like the report's platform-based effect tracking.

4. Risk alerts note subsidy competition requires attention to rider labor rights, but positive impacts like income growth open avenues for tailored service support.

Platform strategies and operational insights highlight balancing risks and opportunities.

1. Merchant needs show coupon campaigns boost participation, but small merchants have greater urgency, requiring optimized recruitment strategies to attract more sellers.

2. Latest practices, such as "Billion-Dollar Subsidy" campaigns, demonstrate sustained consumption growth over six months, with rider income rising and efficiency improving via higher effective working ratios.

3. Operational insights include reducing rider online time while increasing order-carrying duration, learning from efficiency models; risk mitigation advises promoting healthy competition to avoid negative social feedback.

4. Opportunities suggest expanding into multi-scenarios like e-commerce and Alipay's ecosystem, leveraging consumption拉动 effects to gain market share.

Industry dynamics and policy recommendations offer research insights and business model analysis.

1. New trends reveal外卖subsidy competitions impact 300 million users, millions of merchants, and riders, with coupons showing significant six-month effects and spillover in service consumption.

2. Emerging issues include rider income growth outpacing order volume and higher effective working ratios, indicating efficiency gains rather than overwork; business model analysis highlights subsidies cultivating new consumption growth points.

3. Policy suggestions emphasize healthy market competition as foundational, advocating multi-objective governance to protect all parties; insights include merchants improving service quality for stable growth.

4. Data cases, like the analysis of 5,271 merchant samples, show pronounced heterogeneous growth among small merchants, providing an empirical research basis.

Disclaimer: The "Quick Summary" content is entirely generated by AI. Please exercise discretion when interpreting the information. For issues or corrections, please email run@ebrun.com .

I am a Brand Seller Factory Service Provider Marketplace Seller Researcher Read it again.

2025年中,以美团、淘宝闪购、京东等为代表的即时零售与外卖平台通过“百亿补贴”、“亿元补贴”等活动掀起了声势浩大的外卖竞争。对于外卖平台服务行业在补贴、价格、流量等方面的激烈竞争及其带来的诸多影响,社会各方反映强烈。

外卖平台优惠券引发的这场消费狂欢,是否有效带动社会经济正向发展,持续效应又如何?近日,北京大学光华管理学院基于对多平台数据的持续跟踪,发布最新研究报告。

报告表明,闪购平台的优惠券对消费的拉动效应在半年左右的时间内依然显著,总体有效提升了参与商户的线上营收,同时对线下无显著影响。与此同时,报告也显示,伴随闪购渗透率的提高,对骑手收入也带来正面影响,并显著提升了骑手“有效工时比”。

“广告效应”同步拉升多端消费活跃度

2025年7月,北京大学光华管理学院光华思想力课题组曾发布《基于外卖闪购优惠券的消费提振、经营拉动与行业启示》一期报告。为更好研究平台优惠券带来的持续效应,课题组基于淘宝闪购等平台数据,持续追踪了“闪购”优惠券在更长时间区间的效应,并重点在闪购优惠券的持续效应、骑手群体、消费促进与商户线下增收的微观机制等方面进行了拓展和深化。

报告显示,从1-32周的更长时间窗口来看,闪购优惠券在消费者侧形成了持续而显著的消费促进效应。这一影响不仅在饿了么平台(自25年12月起品牌焕新为淘宝闪购)内部表现强劲,也向电商平台与支付宝生态扩散,形成多场景、多品类的消费拉动。特别是在支付宝端,闪购优惠券对服务类消费的持续拉动作用最为突出,餐饮美食与本地生活服务的增长尤为明显,显著高于对耐用品和非耐用品的影响。

研究分析,闪购优惠券的消费拉动主要源于两个机制的作用:消费者侧的实物消费拉动源于淘宝APP的使用黏性增强,商户侧的线下增收则部分归因于线上流量曝光带来的“广告效应”。总体来看,闪购优惠券的影响并非局限于短期餐饮消费的增长,而是在更长时间维度内持续推动了用户在外卖、电商和生活服务等多个场景中的消费活跃度。

不同平台与消费品类的闪购优惠券持续拉动效应

小型商户的线上和线下营收及订单显著增长

报告跟踪研究了5271个商户的营收情况,其中3357个为大型商户、1914个为小型商户。通过实证分析结果表明,闪购优惠券提升了总体商户的周线上营收和订单量,同时对线下经营表现无显著影响;此外,对于小型商户而言,闪购优惠券也同时显著提升了线上和线下的营收与订单量。

通过商户规模进行异质性分析,研究发现,闪购优惠券对于经营规模在50%分位数以下的小型商户的正向拉动作用更为明显。模型分析显示,闪购优惠券提升了小型商户周线上营收1468元,提升了周线下营收164.8元;综合来看周总体营收增加1633元。从订单量看,闪购优惠券提升了周线上订单量51单,提升了周线下订单量2单,提升了周总体订单量53单。以上结果在统计上均表现显著。

课题组认为,闪购优惠券对小型商户线下经营也呈现正向作用,其可能的原因在于,小型商户相较于大型商户面临更大的获客挑战,而闪购优惠券在一定程度上缓解了获客难问题,使小型商户更易于“被看见”。

样本商户2024年和2025年在线上/线下平均营收及订单量对比

骑手收入增长,且增速高于单量

值得一提的是,报告除了高度关注闪购优惠券带来的外卖订单增长,也同时关注该增长是否以骑手过度劳动为代价,关注骑手的劳动收入是否有明显增加。由此,课题组选取了5万名在第1-36周期间每周至少完成1单的活跃骑手,深入分析了业务渗透率对当地骑手的日均收入、完单量、在线时长、有效工时比等方面的影响。

研究显示,伴随闪购渗透率的提高,骑手收入和完单量均显著增长,同时骑手日均收入的提升幅度大于完单量的提升幅度,这表明骑手收入的提升并非仅来自“多跑单”,还可能因为单位订单的平均收益或激励更高。

与收入提升相伴的,并非骑手工作时长的简单延长,而是工作效率的优化。数据显示,骑手的日均在线时长反而出现了微幅下降,背单时长小幅增加,有效工时比提高。这表明在外卖补贴带来的市场扩张期,骑手用更短的总在岗时间,完成了更高效的配送劳动。订单的增加减少了等单、空驶的无效时间,提升了有效工时比。

骑手收入、完单量和有效工时比正相关增长显著

报告指出,持续近一年的高强度外卖补贴竞争,因为涉及3亿用户、千万商户和千万骑手的权益,引起社会各方广泛关注。从研究结果整体来看,平台补贴带动消费的效应存在并具有一定持续性,尤其在推动商品消费扩容、带动服务消费等领域的溢出效应比较显著,表明平台补贴在培育新的消费增长点、扩大消费方面发挥了积极作用。

课题组认为,良性的市场竞争让消费者、骑手和商户拥有更多的选择,同时也在一定程度上促使平台更加注重运营管理和治理能力提升,并引导商户通过改善服务质量实现长期获客和稳定增长,建议以推动形成良性市场竞争秩序为出发点和根本遵循,更好打造多目标协同的治理体系。

文章来源:亿邦动力

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